The document provides information about a Monte Carlo simulation exercise to estimate the total costs of installing a backup generator at a government facility. It includes historical cost data for design, build, and test efforts and asks the reader to conduct 10 iterations of the simulation to generate a cost distribution. It then asks questions about calculating the average cost, the standard deviation of the distribution, and the probability of costs exceeding $105,000. The document provides information and examples to help calculate standard deviation.

1. The Problem Statement
By Dr. Marilyn Simon
Find this and many other dissertation guides and resources at
www.dissertationrecipes.com
The problem statement is one of the most important components
of your study. After
reading the problem statement, the reader will know why you
are doing (or did) this study
and be convinced of its importance. In 180 -250 words you need
to convince the reader
that this study MUST be done (or HAD to be done). Society or
one of its institutions has
some pressing problem that needs (needed) closer examination.
YOUR study will answer
(answered) some part of this serious problem in a unique and
clever way.
The problem statement also explicates the paradigm
(qualitative/quantitative/mixed) and the
methodology (correlation, evaluative, phenomenological,

2. Delphi, historical, experimental,
etc.). A problem might be defined as an issue that exists in
theory or practice that leads (lead)
to the need for your study. Never stray too far away from your
problem as you conduct, or
discuss your research. Your dissertation will be judged on how
well you solved the problem
posed, and how well you obtained your purpose.
The following template can be used to put your initial draft of
your problem statement
together. This can then be converted into a lucid, scholarly, and
clear problem statement
that meets all the items in the checklist that follows.
Template for initial draft of problem statement
There is a problem in ___________(societal organization).
Despite _________________
(something that should be happening) ___________ is occurring
(provide supporting
evidence). This problem has negatively impacted
____________(victims of problem)
because _________________. A possible cause of this problem

3. is ___________ Perhaps
a study which investigates ___________ by a
________(paradigm/method) could remedy
the situation.
"I hear and I forget, I see and I remember, I do and I
understand"
John Dewey on Experiential Learning.
http://www.dissertationrecipes.com/
PROBLEM STATEMENT
Average of ½ - ¾ page
180-250 words
√
1. General Problem/Observation identifying the need for the
study, with
sufficient current evidence to support the extent of the problem.
This can be
current literature or current statistics.

4. 2. Specific “Problem” proposed for research. Evidence is
provided that this
is a current problem. However the words current or today
should not be in
the problem statement. A time reference can be included.
3. Introductory words describing the paradigm (quantitative,
qualitative, or
mixed), the method, and research design are given and are
appropriate to the
“problem.”
4. General population group affected by the problem is
identified.
5. The geographic area where the problem exists is identified, if
appropriate.
6. The gap in the literature is explained. The gap in the
literature is not
sufficient reason to conduct a doctoral study and is not, in
itself, a problem,
but it explains where your study will fit in with other scholarly
research.
7. The problem statement is written in a scholarly voice with
APA

5. formatting and no grammatical errors. There are no, or a
minimum number
of, quotations in the problem statement.
8. Sufficient evidence is provided to convince the reader that
the problem is
real and solvable.
9. The problem statement is clear, concise, and in accord with
the purpose
statement. The possible resolution is in accord with the chosen
methodology.
10. There are no unnecessary words. The problems statement
does not
exceed 250 words.
An Example Follows.
Example:
Bullying is one of the most critical issues facing middle school

6. education in the
21
st
century. When conflicts arise children can use their expertise
with interactive
technologies to humiliate and bully their peers online, in what
is referred to as
cyberbullying, and avoid reprimand from adults or foes. Parents
often plead
technological ignorance regarding cyberbullying, and many
schools decline to
discipline off-campus behavior.
Beane (2008) found that approximately 28% of middle school
students are
subjected to cyberbullying, and that this affects about ten
million middle school
children each year. E-mail messages and Web sites have
increasingly become vehicles
to threaten, tease, and humiliate other students. Incidents of
online bullying can be just
as hurtful as face to face bullying, yet are less likely to be
detected or prevented by
adults. To date there has been little, if any, formal evaluation of
how cyberbullying has

7. been addressed. In order to understand the complexities of
online bullying, it is
important that a mixed-method case study be conducted to
determine the ill effects of
online bullying and examine a case where online bullying was
detected and dealt with.
1
MGT 553. Risk and Quality Mangement
Assignment 4
Monte Carlo Simulation Exercise
Equipment Installation at Globus Enterprises
The equipment installation group at Globus Enterprises is about
to make a cost estimate to determine how much it will cost to
install a back-up generator at a government laboratory facility.
Over the years, this group has carried out more than 100 such
installations and has developed a database reflecting past
experience. Data on the distribution of cost for design work,
building effort, and testing effort is provided in Table 1.

8. Cheapest
($/%)
Usual
($/%)
Expensive
($/%)
Design
9,000/30
10,000/40
12,000/30
Build
60,000/20
70,000/60
80,000/20
Test
18,000/20
20,000/50
24,000/30
Table 1. Historical Data on Cost Distributions
The data in the table picture the cost of an effort and the
percentage of times this cost is achieved. For example, 30% of
the time, “Design” cost $9,000; 40% of the time it cost $10,000;
30% of the time it cost $12,000.
00 16 45 84 18
83 28 82 36 91
95 14 80 68 34
54 55 13 20 70
57 68 61 37 30
09 81 24 55 21
Table 2. Two-digit Random Numbers
Questions
Conduct a Monte Carlo simulation to create a distribution
portraying total estimated project costs. Employ ten iterations

9. in your computation. Display the distribution graphically.
On the average, how much does it cost to carry out this project?
What is the standard deviation of the distribution that you
generated (use the formula: SD = √Σ(Xi – X-bar)2/N, where SD
= standard deviation, √ = square root symbol, Σ = the
summation sign, Xi = the ith value of X, X-bar = the mean of
the X values, and N = the number of values being considered)?
What information does the standard deviation offer us that helps
us develop a better understanding of risk in this case? (For more
help on computing standard deviation, see below.)
Roughly what is the probability that the project will cost more
than $105,000?
Computing standard deviation for following numbers: 8, 4, 10,
7, 6

10. X
X-bar
x - X-bar
Squared
8.00
7.00
1.00
1.00
4.00
7.00
-3.00
9.00
10.00
7.00
3.00
9.00

11. 7.00
7.00
0.00
0.00
6.00
7.00
-1.00
1.00
Total =
35.00
20.00
Average = X-Bar =
7.00
4.00
(Sum Squared)/N = Variance

12. 2.00
Sqrt(Variance) = Standard Deviation
Computing standard deviation for following numbers: 6, 7, 5.5,
8, 8.5

13. X
X-bar
x - X-bar
Squared
6.00
7.00
-1.00
1.00
7.00
7.00
0.00
0.00
5.50
7.00
-1.50
2.25

14. 8.00
7.00
1.00
1.00
8.50
7.00
1.50
2.25
Total =
35.00
6.50
Average = X-Bar =
7.00
1.30
(Sum Squared)/N = Variance

15. 1.14
Sqrt(Variance) = Standard Deviation
Note that the spread of numbers in the first case above is
greater than the second case, so that
standard deviation in the first case (SD = 2.00) is greater than
in the second (SD = 1.14)
MGT 553. Risk and Quality Mangement
Assignment 3
George’s Thanksgiving Trip
George is invited by his sister, Dorothy, to attend a family
reunion during the Thanksgiving weekend. Dorothy lives in

16. Denver, NY, about 90 miles northeast of New York City.
George lives in Washington, DC, about 215 miles south of New
York City. George decides to visit Dorothy and to travel to her
place by car.
The only problem is that road traffic during the Thanksgiving
holidays is terrible along the East Coast of the United States.
George would normally travel to Dorothy’s house by taking
Interstate Highway 95. This is the major link connecting
Washington and New York City. However, during
Thanksgiving, the traffic on I-95 is usually bad, leading to
major delays.
George decides to explore an alternate route to traveling to
Dorothy’s. This route would be a few miles longer. Also, he
would encounter a 60 mile segment of road in a rural area, and
he would have to travel slowly on this segment. The good
feature about the alternate route is that it is unlikely to suffer
from Thanksgiving traffic.
A map showing the two routes to Dorothy’s house is offered in
Figure 1.
Based on his experience in traveling along I-95 during
Thanksgiving holidays, George has developed a good sense of
the likelihood of delays that he can encounter on the journey.
Table 1 shows the probability distributions he has created for
all the segments of his trip to Dorothy for both the I-95 route
and the alternate route.
Assignment
Using the information supplied in Figure 1 and Table 1,
determine the expected amount of time it will take George to
travel from Washington, DC to his sister’s house, employing
both the I-95 and alternate route. SHOW YOUR WORK,

17. DEMONSRATING HOW YOU ARRIVED AT THE ANSWERS
YOU PROVIDE.
Figure 1. Two Routes to George’s Sister’s House
New York City
George’s house
Washington, DC
Baltimore
40 miles
Scranton
Binghamton
East Branch
Kingston
175 miles
130 miles
30 miles
50 miles
60 miles
10 miles
Legend
Highway, 70 miles per hour
Rural road, 40 miles per hour
Sister’s House
Upstate, New York
80 miles
Probability Distributions for Travel Times on Journey
Regular Route (East Route)

18. Probability achieving schedule
Probability 10% longer than schedule
Probability 20% longer than schedule
Probability 30% longer than schedule
Probability 40% longer than schedule
Segment
Washington-Baltimore
0.7
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
Baltimore-New York City
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.2
New York City-Kingston
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.1
Kingston-Sister's Home

19. 0.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
Alternate Route (West Route)
Probability of achieving schedule
Probability 10% longer than schedule
Probability 20% longer than schedule
Probability 30% longer than schedule
Probability 40% longer than schedule
Segment
Washington-Baltimore

20. 0.7
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
Baltimore-Binghamton
0.9
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Binghamton-E Branch
0.9
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
E Branch-Sister's Home
0.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0