The document summarizes discussions at a meeting about transitioning from a traditional census every 10 years to an administrative data census. It was noted that an administrative data census could provide more frequent statistics using existing government records but may not provide all the details of a traditional census. Research is ongoing to expand the types of information that can be accurately collected from administrative records alone or combined with surveys. Meeting attendees discussed progress made in determining addresses and households as well as future plans for ongoing research assessments to evaluate readiness to transition away from the traditional census model.
2. Addresses vs Households
Who needs household statistics?
https://www.slideshare.net/onsaddresses
#whyhouseholds
sli.do : G331
2
3. What do we mean by an Admin Data
Census?
• Aiming to replicate as many census outputs as possible
using admin data (and surveys) by 2021 to compare with
2021 Census
Recommendation in 2023
• Three key types of Census outputs:
• Size of population
• Number and structure of households
• Characteristics of housing and the population
• Lot of potential with admin data alone but it will not provide
the complete solution.
• Need access to range of admin data and combine with
surveys. Likely to need two new surveys:
• Annual 1% coverage survey to help measure size of
population and households
• Annual characteristics survey – size tbc 3
4. Census, population and migration
statistics system – the future
Current model – Census every ten years
• Lots of detail every ten years, down to small-
areas
• Less detail at regional and local authority levels
in the interim
Future model – Admin Data Census
Opportunities – more frequent statistics,
longitudinal analysis, new outputs
better statistics, better decisions
• For example, use of mobile phone data to produce more
frequent travel-to-work statistics, alternative population
bases (daytime populations)
5. How will we know if we’re ready to
move to an ADC?
• Research outputs every Autumn (first: 22
October 2015)
• expanding the accuracy and/or breadth and/or
detail each year
• Progress made on size of population, number of
households, income
• Assessment every Spring (first: 16 May 2016)
• Using five high level criteria
• where we are now
• where we expect to be by 2023
5
6. House rules
We want to have lots of discussion today and
hear your views.
So that we can get the best out of the day:
• Please be constructive
• Before you speak, please tell us who you are
and where you’re from
• Sli.do G331
6
7. Agenda
7
Time Session Lead
11.00-11.10 Welcome and introduction Becky Tinsley (ONS)
11.10-11.50 Addresses – progress and plans Alistair Calder/Mike James
(ONS)
11.50-12.10 Household definitions Dave Martin (Southampton Uni)
12.10-12.25 Questions and discussion Alistair Calder (ONS)
12.25-12.30 Intro to afternoon Becky Tinsley/ Alistair Calder
(ONS)
12.30-13.20 LUNCH
13.20-14.20 User needs – who needs household
statistics?
Rachel Leeser (GLA)
14.20-15.15 ONS Admin Data Census research
progress & future plans
Royal Mail plus others
Claire Pereira, Marcus
Lewin (ONS)
15.15-15.45 Panel session
(Sarah Henry, Becky Tinsley, Dave
Martin, Rachel Leeser)
15.45-16.00 Wrap up, next steps Becky/Alistair (ONS)
Editor's Notes
The National Statistician’s recommendation in 2014 stated that we would conduct an online census in 2021, enhanced by increased use of admin data. This also offers a springboard for greater use of admin and survey data in future. The Government (MCO) supported this recommendation, but stated their ambition that censuses after 2021 would be conducted using other sources of data, provided such an approach could be validated through dual-running of both approaches in 2021.
We’re calling this future approach an ‘Admin Data Census’ which will involve bringing together a range of administrative, survey and other (such as big, and commercial) data sources.