العرض المقدم لمؤتمر تحديات إدارة المخاطر: فندق كورنيثيا : الخرطوم 30-31 مارس 2013
تقديم م/ عمر السيد عمر مدير مكتب ادارة المشروعات -وحدة الأعمال الترابية
13. العامة الخطةالتنفيذ وموقفدارفور لواليات
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
NORTH SOUTH WEST
6
7
3
8 8 8
NORTH SOUTH WEST
EXC 6 7 3
PLAN 8 8 8
المنفذ االعداد مقارنة/المخططEXC PLAN
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
NORTH SOUTH WEST
361,524
490,000
241,500
400,000 400,000 400,000
NORTH SOUTH WEST
EXC 361,524 490,000 241,500
PLAN 400,000 400,000 400,000
م السعات مقارنة3EXC PLAN
9%
91%
Volume
Remain EXC
20. •Project Scope Statement
•Cost Management Plan
•Schedule management plan
•Communication
management plan
•Enterprise Environmental
Factors
•Organizational Process
Assets
Inputs
•Planning Meetings and
Analysis
Tools & Techniques
• Risk Management
Plan
Outputs
Plan Risk Management:
24. MAIN RISKS
Local contractor unavailability
Political support
Political interventions
Late monsoon
Early monsoon
fluctuation rain-fall
Logistic & supply (Diesel)
Insecure Transportation of bulk materials
Mobilization in rough terrain remote areas
Program milestones
Lack of finance
Scope creep
Road permit
Thruya & GPS communication
Insecure Transportation by 4WD vehicle
25.
26. Project Risk : Opportunities & Threats
OPPORTUNITIES
Political supports
Using of local manpower in study & construction
Availability of local materials (stone, sand, aggregate)
Early start of project (far from rain season)
Reasonable rain-fall
Soil pre-study reduce bad location
Hydrology pre-study ensure target quantity of water to
be collected
THREATS
Local supplier unavailability
Political interventions
Heavy rain
Early rain
Logistic & supply (Diesel)
Insecure Transportation of bulk
materials
Mobilization in rough terrain
remote areas
Program milestones
Lack of finance
Scope creep
Road permit
Thruya & GPS communication
Insecure Transportation by 4WD
vehicle
27. RISK REGISTER SAMPLE
No. Description Category Potential
Responses
Risk
Owner
Probability Impact
RS-1
Insecure Transportation
of bulk materials
SECURITY Convey Tr-M 0.2 0.6
RS-2
Thruya & GPS
communication
SECURITY Regular Site visit Tc-M 0.1 0.4
RS-3
Transportation by 4WD
vehicle
SECURITY Used rent-a-car Tr-M 0.3 0.6
RS-4 Political interventions SECURITY
Top management
communication
GM 0.8 0.2
RS-5 Road permit late issues SECURITY
Local Authority
communication
R-M 0.2 0.4
RS-6 Lack of finance management Other resources HFA 0.5 0.8
28. QUALITATIVE/QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS
• Risk register
• Risk management
plan
• Project scope
statement
• Organizational
process assets
Inputs
• Risk probability
and impact
assessment
• Probability and
impact matrix
• Risk data quality
assessment
• Risk categorization
• Risk urgency
assessment
• Expert judgment
Tools &
Techniques
• Risk
register
updates
Outputs
• Risk register
• Risk
management
plan
• Project scope
statement
• Organizational
process assets
Inputs
• Risk probability
and impact
assessment
• Probability and
impact matrix
• Risk data quality
assessment
• Risk
categorization
• Risk urgency
assessment
• Expert judgment
Tools &
Technique
s
• Risk
register
updates
Outputs
Perform Qualitative Risk AnalysisPerform Qualitative Risk Analysis
30. PLAN RISK RESPONSE:
• Risk register
• Risk management plan
Inputs
• Strategies for
negative risks or
threats
• Strategies for
positive risks or
opportunities
• Contingent
response strategies
• Expert judgment
Tools &
Techniques • Risk register
updates
•Risk-related
contract
decisions
•Project
management
plan updates
•Project
document
updates
Outputs
31. Exploit
• Political supports
share
• Availability of local
resources
Enhance
• Local contractors experiences &
competencies.
Accept
• Late monsoon
Strategies for positive risks
Avoid
• Darfur strategy plan
• All projects in Baher-
Alarb
Transfer
• Security responsibilities to
Wilyats authorities
Mitigate
• Supply of Diesel
• Supply of bulk cement (North)
Accept
• Early monsoon
32. MONITORING AND CONTROL RISK
• Risk register
• Project management
plan
• Work performance
information
• Performance report
Inputs
• Risk reassessment
• Risk audits
• Variance and trend
analysis
• Technical
performance
measurement
• Reserve analysis
• Status meetings
Tools &
Techniques
• Risk register updates
• Organizational
process assets
updates
• Change requests
• Project management
plan updates
• Project document
updates
Outputs
39. RISK CULTUREWhatdoesagoodrisk
culturelooklike?
importance of continuous
management of risk
Transparent and timely risk
information
Encouragement of risk event
reporting
Risk management skills and knowledge
valued, encouraged and developed
RISK CULTURE
CONFERENCE
January 2013,
London UK www.theirm.org