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Iraq elezioni definitiva
1.
IRAQ: ANALISI DEL
VOTO L’IRAQ DOPO LE ELEZIONI
2.
© IFI 2013 www.ifiadvisory.com EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY Composizione etnico-religiosa Governatorati Ordinamento e elezioni 2010 Mappa del potere Elezioni 2014 Possibili coalizioni Trend e scenari
3.
© IFI 2013 www.ifiadvisory.com IRAQ:
COMPOSIZIONE ETNICO-RELIGIOSA Composizione Religiosa Composizione Etnica
4.
© IFI 2013 www.ifiadvisory.com Ordinamento
amministrativo IRAQ: GOVERNATORATI
5.
© IFI 2013 www.ifiadvisory.com Governatorato
al-Anbar Elezioni 2014 Sunniti Laici Sciiti Curdi IRAQ: GOVERNATORATO A MAGGIORANZA SUNNITA
6.
© IFI 2013 www.ifiadvisory.com Affluenza:
62,4% Composizione parlamentare IRAQ: ORDINAMENTO E ELEZIONI 2010
7.
© IFI 2013 www.ifiadvisory.com Affluenza:
62% Composizione parlamentare IRAQ: ELEZIONI 2014
8.
© IFI 2013 www.ifiadvisory.com BENCHMARK
2010-2014 IRAQ: ELEZIONI A CONFRONTO
9.
© IFI 2013 www.ifiadvisory.com IRAQ:
KEY PEOPLE Presidente della Repubblica • JALAL TALABANI (UPK) • 2005-2014 Presidente del Consiglio • NURI AL-MALIKI (Dawa) • 2006-2014 Presidente del Parlamento • Osama al-Nujaifi (Muthaidoun) • 2010-2014
10.
© IFI 2013 www.ifiadvisory.com Possibile
coalizione sciita Possibile coalizione curda IRAQ: POSSIBILI COALIZIONI
11.
© IFI 2013 www.ifiadvisory.com IRAQ:
CRITICITÀ COALIZIONI
12.
© IFI 2013 www.ifiadvisory.com QUADRO
POLITICO •TEMPI LUNGHI PER IL GOVERNO •STALLO ELEZIONE PRESIDENZIALE •QUESTIONE FEDERALE QUADRO SICUREZZA •RISCHIO TERRORISMO •MUTAMENTO STRATEGIA E OCCUPAZIONE TERRITORIO •RISCHIO SECESSIONE QUADRO ECONOMICO •DIMINUZIONE EXPORT PETROLIFERO •INSTABILITÀ ECONOMICA E SOCIALE IRAQ: TREND E SCENARI
13.
© IFI 2013 www.ifiadvisory.com ISIS •
ORIGINI DEL GRUPPO • LEADERSHIP • GUERRA CIVILE SIRIANA CRISI ATTUALE • AL-ANBAR (GENNAIO 2014) • NINEVEH, SALAH AD DIN, DIYALA • BAQUBA (60 KM DA BAGHDAD) OIL ASSETS • RAFFINERIA DI BAIJI • EVACUAZIONE PERSONALE NON INDISPENSABILE • GIACIMENTI MERIDIONALI IRAQ: CRISI ATTUALE Avanzata ISIS
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