000WTPZ43 KNHC 302057TCDEP3POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 26NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE ...

1. Eastern Pacific Post-Tropical Cyclone RACHEL Discussion
Number 26
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 302057
TCDEP3
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014
Rachel artfully draws to a close. Deep convection associated with
Rachel dissipated about 15 hours ago and it is unlikely to redevelop
due to unfavorable thermodynamic factors and strong shear. Based on
these conditions, the cyclone is being declared a post-tropical
remnant low at this time. Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased
further and the initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt. Global
model guidance shows the remnant low degenerating into an open
trough by Friday. The official intensity forecast is close to the
previous forecast and the GFS model.
During the last couple of hours, the now-shallow vortex associated
with Rachel has taken on a southward drift. A slow southwestward
motion is expected during the next two days as it continues to move
around the eastern periphery of a low-level ridge. The track
forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, nearly
between the ECMWF and GFS model solutions.

2. This is the last advisory on Rachel by the National Hurricane
Center. For additional information on the remnant low please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/2100Z 22.9N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 01/0600Z 22.8N 117.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 01/1800Z 22.6N 118.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/0600Z 22.4N 119.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/1800Z 22.2N 119.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$

3. Forecaster Cangialosi/Ramos
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml