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Adaptive Change Cycle	

Why Nothing Lasts Forever!

Naresh Jain

naresh@agilefaqs.com
twitter: @nashjain
http://nareshjain.com
Which	
  line	
  is	
  the	
  longest?
1
2
3
Müller-Lyer optical illusion
Which	
  Orange	
  Circle	
  is	
  bigger?

Ebbinghaus optical illusion
Count the number of
times the team in white
t-shirt pass the ball
Video on Selective Attention 	

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJG698U2Mvo
Selec4ve	
  A7en4on
The	
  process	
  by	
  which	
  a	
  person	
  can	
  selec4vely	
  pick	
  
out	
  one	
  s4mulus	
  from	
  a	
  mixture	
  of	
  s4muli	
  occurring	
  
simultaneously.
Commercial Break!
Copyright © 2013, AgileFAQs. All Rights Reserved.
Mumbai
Tech Talks!
Pet	
  Plant	
  Research	
  @	
  an	
  elderly	
  Nursing	
  Home
Student	
  Volunteers	
  @	
  Nursing	
  Home
Why?
What	
  would	
  you	
  prefer?
A	
  lo7ery	
  4cket	
  with	
  a	
  random	
  number	
  	
  
or	
  a	
  number	
  you’ve	
  picked?
What	
  would	
  you	
  prefer?
In	
  the	
  Casino,	
  if	
  you	
  toss	
  the	
  dice	
  	
  
or	
  someone	
  else	
  tosses	
  the	
  dice?

Do you think it will
make any difference?
Illusion	
  of	
  Control
Our	
  desire	
  to	
  control	
  is	
  so	
  powerful	
  that	
  the	
  feeling	
  
of	
  being	
  in	
  control	
  is	
  so	
  rewarding	
  that	
  people	
  oLen	
  
act	
  as	
  though	
  they	
  can	
  control	
  the	
  uncontrollable.
Electrical	
  Shock	
  Research
High	
  Volts	
  Shock	
  Group	
  vs.	
  Low	
  Volts	
  Shock	
  Group	
  
	
  5	
  shocks	
  of	
  5	
  volts	
  each	
  vs.	
  3	
  shocks	
  of	
  2-­‐4	
  volts	
  each	
  

Which Group would have
sweated more, whose heart beats
would be faster and who claimed
to be more afraid?
Every	
  10	
  seconds	
  vs.	
  Random	
  4me	
  interval
Uncertainty

Why?	

Our desire to Control
How	
  do	
  we	
  deal	
  with	
  Uncertainty?
Predictability	
  Paradox
How to Organize a
Children's Party?
A video by Dave Snowden
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Miwb92eZaJg
Summary	
  -­‐	
  Cynefin	
  Model
Why is there only ONE
Toyota or Apple today?
Products & Processes are like haircuts	

Copying someone else’s rarely works
Retrospec4ve	
  Coherence

Hindsight does not lead to foresight!
Will Apple or Toyota’s
success last for ever?
Why not?
Adaptive Change Cycle
Adaptive Change Cycle in the Automobile Industry
Every 10 Years Process Go Thru
The Adaptive Change Cycle
Adaptive Change Cycle
References

http://www.resalliance.org/	

Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems	

Noah Raford - Explaining the Cycle of Adaptive Change

Copyright © 2013, AgileFAQs. All Rights Reserved.
Being ‘agile’
OVER
Following ‘Agile’
5	
  Key	
  take-­‐aways	
  from	
  this	
  Session
Beware	
  of	
  Illusion	
  of	
  Control	
  and	
  Predictability	
  Paradox	
  
Ac4on	
  Precedes	
  Clarity	
  
Retrospec4ve	
  Coherence	
  -­‐	
  Copying	
  rarely	
  helps	
  
Perfec4on	
  in	
  very	
  first	
  a7empt	
  is	
  impossible,	
  iterate	
  via	
  
safe-­‐fail	
  experimenta4on	
  to	
  eventually	
  a7ain	
  perfec4on	
  	
  
Nothing	
  lasts	
  for	
  ever,	
  go	
  through	
  the	
  adap4ve	
  change	
  
cycle	
  as	
  rapidly	
  as	
  possible	
  (reorganisa4on,	
  exploita4on,	
  
conserva4on	
  &	
  release)
©	
  AgileFAQs	
  -­‐	
  All	
  Rights	
  Reserved
Be	
  careful	
  not	
  to…

Ques4ons?

Naresh Jain

naresh@agilefaqs.com
twitter: @nashjain
http://nareshjain.com

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Adaptive Change Cycle Applied to Agile Methods