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- 1. Population Growth Trends in India: 1991 Census
Mahinder D. Chaudhry
Royal Military College of Canada
ABSTRACT:The decennial census counted the total population of India at 843.931 million as
of the sunrise of March 1, 1991. The total is 160.6 million higher than that of a decade earlier
in 198]. The actual census count exceeded by 45 million the official projections for 1991
based on the 1971 census. However, the official projections for the same year based on the
1981 census fell short by 7.6 million only. Most of the observed differences are explained by
the slower decline in the fertility levels. The population growth rate peaked during 1971-81,
perhaps in 1972-73 (based on the Sample Registration Scheme data). The average annual
exponential growth rate declined marginally to 2.11 per cent (4.5%) after having remained at
a plateau for the previous two decades of 1961-71 and 1971-81. At this point in time, the
fertility and mortality trends indicate that India will reach the replacement level fertility [Net
Reproductive Rate of Unity] by the years 2010-2015. It can be said with a greater degree of
certainty that the official target of reaching the replacement level fertility by the year 2000
A.D. will not be reached. Based on the 1991 census results, it can be said that India will reach
the billion mark by the turn of the century. The World Bank projects a population of 1,350
million by the year 2025 A.D., and a stationary population of 1,862 million by the year 2150
A.D., assuming that the replacement level fertility [Net Reproductive Rate = 1] in India is
reached about the year 2015 A.D.
Based on the preliminary results of the 1991 population census in
India, this informal paper traces growth trends and reviews the future pros-
pects of reaching the target of the replacement level fertility. Although the
provisional count has revealed two other interesting surprises, the detailed
analysis must wait for further availability of the data: (1) The sex-ratio
[number of females per 1,000 males], which had improved somewhat be-
tween 1971 and 1981 from 930 to 934 after consistently declining over
seventy years [from 972 in 1901 to 930 in 1971], declined again to 929 in
Please address correspondence to Dr. M. D. Chaudhry, Department of Political and
Economic Science, Royal Military College of Canada, Kingston, Ontario, Canada K7k 5L0.
Population and Environment: A Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies
Volume 14, Number 1, September 1992
© 1992 Human Sciences Press, Inc. 31
![Population Growth Trends in India: 1991 Census
Mahinder D. Chaudhry
Royal Military College of Canada
ABSTRACT:The decennial census counted the total population of India at 843.931 million as
of the sunrise of March 1, 1991. The total is 160.6 million higher than that of a decade earlier
in 198]. The actual census count exceeded by 45 million the official projections for 1991
based on the 1971 census. However, the official projections for the same year based on the
1981 census fell short by 7.6 million only. Most of the observed differences are explained by
the slower decline in the fertility levels. The population growth rate peaked during 1971-81,
perhaps in 1972-73 (based on the Sample Registration Scheme data). The average annual
exponential growth rate declined marginally to 2.11 per cent (4.5%) after having remained at
a plateau for the previous two decades of 1961-71 and 1971-81. At this point in time, the
fertility and mortality trends indicate that India will reach the replacement level fertility [Net
Reproductive Rate of Unity] by the years 2010-2015. It can be said with a greater degree of
certainty that the official target of reaching the replacement level fertility by the year 2000
A.D. will not be reached. Based on the 1991 census results, it can be said that India will reach
the billion mark by the turn of the century. The World Bank projects a population of 1,350
million by the year 2025 A.D., and a stationary population of 1,862 million by the year 2150
A.D., assuming that the replacement level fertility [Net Reproductive Rate = 1] in India is
reached about the year 2015 A.D.
Based on the preliminary results of the 1991 population census in
India, this informal paper traces growth trends and reviews the future pros-
pects of reaching the target of the replacement level fertility. Although the
provisional count has revealed two other interesting surprises, the detailed
analysis must wait for further availability of the data: (1) The sex-ratio
[number of females per 1,000 males], which had improved somewhat be-
tween 1971 and 1981 from 930 to 934 after consistently declining over
seventy years [from 972 in 1901 to 930 in 1971], declined again to 929 in
Please address correspondence to Dr. M. D. Chaudhry, Department of Political and
Economic Science, Royal Military College of Canada, Kingston, Ontario, Canada K7k 5L0.
Population and Environment: A Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies
Volume 14, Number 1, September 1992
© 1992 Human Sciences Press, Inc. 31](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/fulltext-091002234047-phpapp02/85/Fulltext-1-320.jpg)
