Southern africa sulphur workshop 2015 icct
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Presentation by Ray Minjares, Clean Air Program Lead for the International Council on Clean Transportation. This presentation summarizes the benefits of low sulfur fuels and cleaner vehicles in Southern Africa. The talk was presented at the Southern Africa Sub-Regional Low Sulphur Workshop in Johannesburg, South Africa on 7 July 2015.
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Southern africa sulphur workshop 2015 icct
- 1. Benefits of Low Sulphur Fuels and Cleaner Vehicles in Southern Africa Ray Minjares, ICCT Clean Air Program Southern Africa sub-Regional Low Sulphur Workshop July 7, 2015
- 2. Outdoor air pollution is the ninth leading contributor to global disease burden Clean, low-sulfur fuel coupled with a vehicle emission control program are the solution in the transport sector SADC countries should adopt a low sulphur fuels strategy as the foundation of a comprehensive emissions control program Global adoption of Euro 6/VI fuels and vehicles can eliminate 75 percent of future deaths caused by vehicle emissions Key Messages
- 3. 3.7 million deaths from ambient air pollution in 2012 WHO (2014). Ambient (outdoor) and household (indoor) air pollution global and regional burden of disease data. Annual Review of Public Health. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization.
- 4. 4 Global Passenger Vehicles will Triple in Number by 2050 2030 2x v.2005 __ 2050 3x v.2005 __
- 5. WHO Finds Diesel Exhaust Causes Cancer (2012) “The scientific evidence was compelling and the Working Group’s conclusion was unanimous: diesel engine exhaust causes lung cancer in humans.” -Dr. Christopher Portier International Agency for Research on Cancer. (2012, June 12). IARC: Diesel Engine Exhaust Carcinogenic. JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute. Lyon, France: World Health Organization. doi:10.1093/jnci/djs034
- 6. Black Carbon is a key target • Penetrates deep into the lungs • The second largest contributor to climate warming after CO2 • Greater than 90 percent of transport-related black carbon comes from diesels • Up to 99 percent removal efficiency with diesel particulate filter
- 7. WHO Report on Health Impacts of Black Carbon (2012) “BC may not be a major directly toxic component of fine PM, but it may operate as a universal carrier of a wide variety of chemicals of varying toxicity..” “…removing particulates with a modern diesel particle trap …resulted in a complete absence of cardiovascular effects.” Janssen, N. A. H., Gerlofs-Nijland, M. E., Lanki, T., Salonen, R. O., Cassee, F., Hoek, G., et al. (2012). Health Effects of Black Carbon (pp. 1–96). Copenhagen: World Health Organization.
- 9. 9 Fuels and Vehicles Act as a Single System
- 10. 10 Technology Shift Towards Emissions Control Courtesy of ClearAire, Inc.
- 11. 11 Los Angeles reduced airborne cancer risk by 50% since 2005 largely from diesel controls 2012 No Diesel PM 2005 2012 Hypothetical: No Diesel PM http://www.aqmd.gov/docs/default-source/air-quality/air-toxic-studies/mates-iv/mates-iv-draft- report-10-1-14.pdf?sfvrsn=4
- 12. Emission Controls with Stringent Fuel and Vehicle Standards http://www.theicct.org/global-health-roadmap
- 13. Status of Low-Sulphur Fuels in 2015
- 14. Costs and Benefits of AFRI-4 Fuels in SSA Billions 2007 Dollars SSA Total West Africa East Africa Southern Africa 5-Year Refinery Investment Costs $ 2.76 B $ 0.47 B $ 2.13 B 0.59 B Health Benefits over 5 Years1 $ 25 B $ 18 B $ 5.3 B $ 1.0 B 10-year Refinery Investment Costs $ 6.14 B $ 4.96 B $ 2.48 B $ 0.99 B Health Benefits over 10 Years1 $ 43 B $ 33 B $ 9.0 B $ 1.8 B 1. Central value shown for elasticity=1.5; ranges for elasticities of 1.0 and 2.0 are shown in the report. For Scenario 2 (lower sulfur fuel and pollution control equipment) and alternate 2-stroke motorcycle emissions assumptions. ICF International (2009). Final Report: Sub-Saharan Africa Refinery Project Executive Summary. Submitted to the World Bank and the African Refiners Association. June 2009
- 15. Total Investments (USD) Per liter costs: Gasoline Per liter costs: Diesel China $6.9 billion 0.66-0.78¢ 1.42-1.83¢ Mexico $3.3 billion 1.10-1.40¢ 2.50-3.20¢ Brazil $6.3 billion 1.64-1.96¢ 1.55-1.96¢ India $4.1 billion 0.70-0.87¢ 0.64-0.88¢ Costs of Euro 6/VI Fuels in other countries
- 16. Details: China – value of moving to Euro VI- equivalent standards -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Benefits Costs Net Benefits CumulativecostsandbenefitsofChina6/VI (100millionRMB) Climate Benefits Health Benefits Costs of Emission Standards Costs of Fuel Standards Net Benefits
- 17. Details: Mexico – value of moving to heavy-duty standards equivalent to Euro VI Benefits Costs Net benefits Health benefits $124 $- $- Climate benefits GWP-20 $10 $- $- Cost of fuel standards $- $(6) $- Cost of DEF $- $(2) $- Cost of vehicle technologies $- $(4) $- Net benefits $- $- $123 $(20) $- $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 Cumulativepresentdiscountedvalueto2037 [billionUSD]
- 18. 18 Projections of future health impacts of vehicle emissions Source: ICCT Health Roadmap (2013) Annual premature mortality by region, 2000–2030 Euro 6/VI Adopted
- 19. ICCT/UNEP launching a Soot-Free Urban Bus Project in 2015 Seeking city-level commitments to procure only soot-free buses Johannesburg included in 20 target cities globally Central maintenance and fueling = lower barriers First 6 committed cities will receive implementation assistance Near-term : Pursue Early Intervention in Targeted Fleets such as via Soot-Free Bus Fleet
- 20. Long-term: Pursue a comprehensive vehicle emission control strategy Clean Transportation Clean vehicle technology Transportation and land use planning Clean fuels Appropriate inspection, maintenance, & enforcement
- 21. Fuel quality is the foundation for air pollution control in the transport sector Low sulphur fuels are necessary to: Reduce sulphate particulate emissions from all vehicles Enable emission control equipment that produce the greatest reductions in vehicle emissions overall Cleaner fuels must be coupled to cleaner vehicles to realize their full health and environmental benefits Conclusions
- 22. 22 Thank You Ray Minjares ICCT Clean Air Program ray@theicct.org
Editor's Notes
- Hello and good morning everyone. My name is Ray Minjares and I lead the Clean Air Program for the International Council on Clean Transportation. Today I am going to talk about the benefits of low sulphur fuels and cleaner vehicles in Southern Africa
- First, I want to leave you with the key messages of my talk. Outdoor air pollution continues to be one of our greatest environmental challenges. The World Health Organization estimates that in 2012, approximately 3.7 million people died prematurely from exposure to outdoor air pollution. Most of this is attributed to exposure to fine particulate matter, produced in large quantities by transportation activity and more specifically, by diesel vehicles. The outdoor air pollution problem has been addressed for decades by a number of countries, particularly OECD countries beginning in the 1950s and earlier. Gasoline powered engines used for personal transport have been the focus emissions control policy since the 1970s, leading to the adoption of the catalytic converter and unleaded fuel. More recently, the evidence base around the health impacts of fine particulate matter has strengthened since the 1990s, pointing us to the previously unknown impacts caused by diesel engines. The attention brought to diesel engines since that time eventually led to the adoption of a series of new efforts focused on diesel emissions control. These very much parallel the efforts taken on gasoline engines – a series of measures to improve combustion efficiency of the engine and to develop after treatment devices. For diesel engines this has led to the diesel particulate filter, which Is sensitive to the fuel sulfur content of diesel fuel. Gasoline engines are similarly sensitive to fuel sulfur content, which necessitates limits on gasoline fuel sulfur content as well. Europe, North America and Japan have led the earliest and broadest efforts to implement new, broad controls on diesel engines. They are being followed by a handful of other countries, including China, India, Brazil, and Mexico. The leadership in these countries has produced meaningful technological development and policy lessons that the countries of Southern Africa can and should take advantage of. The primary lesson for countries in Southern Africa is to follow a regulatory pathway with a goal of ultimately implementing fuel quality standards and vehicle emission standards that are equivalent to Euro 6/VI. We estimate that global adoption of these policies would lead to a 75 percent reduction in premature deaths from vehicle emissions in 2030, compared with the current baseline.
- The latest WHO estimate of outdoor air pollution impacts points to a handful of diseases that are the central cause. These are chronic diseases that result from exposure to relatively low levels of air pollution over many years. The primary cause of early death is heart disease followed by stroke, which combined account for more than 80 percent of the outdoor air pollution health burden. Lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease are diseases of the lung and a relatively small share of the global burden. All of these diseases occur in adults. There still remains a small fraction of outdoor air pollution burden that affects young children, and this is acute lower respiratory infections such as pneumonia.
- Demand for vehicles is growing, particularly in middle-income countries outside of the OECD. As demand for fuel grows, so will emissions unless actions can be taken that can reduce the per-km emissions from each new vehicles.
- Black carbon in particular is a key target for emissions control.
- The experience of diesel emission controls in Los Angeles shows a significant reduction in airborne cancer risk. Diesel accounts for the vast majority of airborne cancer risk, and elimination of diesel emissions would more or less solve this problem in Los Angeles.
- Message: most of the diesel fuel consumed today is already low-sulfur, and most of the low-sulfur fuel is already at 10ppm.
- The ICCT released a report in 2013 that estimates global pollution from vehicles through 2030 and premature mortality from fine particle emissions from vehicles in urban areas. The red lines indicate early deaths from exposure to vehicle emissions if regulations do not progress beyond current levels – globally, these could increase 150% by 2030. Blue lines indicate early deaths under a roadmap for new limits on vehicle emissions and sulfur content of fuel. The estimates of early deaths here provide a lower-bound estimate, because they do not include exposure to secondary pollutants formed in the atmosphere (including particles and ozone), emissions in rural areas, or emissions from marine, aviation, and off-road equipment. Health trends in this figure are driven by total vehicle activity (VKT), vehicle emission limits and fuel quality, and increases in urban population. Stringent standards governing vehicle tailpipe emissions and fuel quality in Europe, the United States, Canada, Japan, Australia, and Republic of Korea will reduce emissions of air pollutants by 80-90% from year 2000 levels by 2030, and reduce consequent premature mortality by over 80%. In China and India, adopting Euro 6/VI fuel-quality and emissions standards (the most stringent regulatory level in Europe) would prevent at least 90,000 early deaths in the year 2030—equivalent to 40 percent of avoidable deaths globally. The Other Countries group includes Africa, the Middle East, and countries in Asia and the Pacific – these now bear a disproportionate share of impacts from vehicle emissions and have a lot to gain from moving toward Euro 6/VI standards.