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mobileYouth Memo #3
‘I’m so over SMS’:
2013 is the year youth
abandon SMS in favor of
Twitter, WhatsApp and Kik
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Key Data
Introduction
SMS traffic has peaked. 2013 is the year that mobile messenger app traffic will surpass SMS.
Key Insights
1. Youth are the Change Agents: Youth turned SMS into become a trillion-dollar
market for mobile in the last decade. A new study, commissioned by Twitter from
Compete, shows that people in the 18-34 age group are 52 percent more likely
than other age groups to use a mobile device to access Twitter.
2. Like for Like: Youth are still texting each other but they have changed the
platform of choice from SMS to messaging apps. The behavior remains the same
but the tool has changed.
3. Make-or-Break Year: 2013 is the watershed year for mobile operator brands to
replace lost SMS revenues with growing revenue from messenger apps.
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Conclusion
Mobile operators face a decline in ARPU decline. As youth shift from SMS to messenger
apps, operators can no longer depend on SMS as a reliable income source.
Operators leave an open door to competition from messenger apps as first time mobile
owners opt for non-SMS clients as de-facto messenger. Messaging apps from Facebook,
Apple and Skype are well positioned to implement payments for VOIP and video chat.
Operators risk opening up the long tail to competition from shopping and entertainment
apps as well. The Twitter study shows youth are 169 percent more likely to exchange
messages when shopping, and three times as likely to use the messaging app before or after
seeing a movie.
Mobile operators need to focus on youth. The messaging market gets born and dies with
the youth market. What people use tomorrow is what youth are using today. Operators
need to invest in the future instead of protecting the past. Attempts to generate more
income from SMS will only yield diminishing returns. The key question for operators is how
can they take advantage of the messaging app boom.
Key Questions
1. Who are the change agents of the mobile messenger market?
a. Which youth beachhead is driving messenger app growth?
2. What is the Social Currency of messenger apps?
a. Why do youth prefer messenger apps to SMS and voice?
3. How do they manage the diverged landscape?
a. What are the social behavioral niches for each app?
Recommended Reading
Report: BBM, Facebook, WhatsApp,
Skype or Twitter: What is the future
of mobile messaging?
Report: The mobileYouth Economy -
The hidden value in mobile's long tail
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