A technology marketer’s view on innovation: about Moore's law, the chasm, shark fin adoption, four moments of truth, the zero marginal cost society and Fubini’s law...

1. 1 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
A technology marketer’s
view on innovation:
about the chasm,
the zero marginal
cost society and
Fubini’s law
Marc Jadoul @mjadoul
November 2019

2. 2 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
Preamble (a trip down memory lane)
1994: Alcatel (now Nokia) and British Telecom jointly ran a
video-on-demand technology trial with 60 BT employee customers

3. 3 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
“Every once in a while, a new technology, an old
problem, and a big idea turn into an innovation.”
Dean Kamen (inventor of the Segway)
technology innovation valuedriver(s)
www.slideshare.net/TaylorClayton/hue-presentation-final-product

4. 4 © 2019 Marc Jadoul4 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
technology

5. 5 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
Moore’s law (1968)
1965
Numberoftransistors
100
1980 1990 2000 2010 20201970
1k
10k
0
1M
10M
100M
1G
10G
TTL CMOS
4100
4004
8008
8080
6800
8085
8086
68000
1802
6502
Z80
6809
8088
ARM2
68020
80286
80386
80486
68040
PowerPC 601
AMD K5
AMD K6
AMD K7
Pentium I
Pentium II
POWER 1 Pentium III
Pentium 4 Atom
AMD K8
Core 2 Duo
Core i7
15 Core Xeon
SPARC 64X
8 Core Xeon
16 Core SPARC T3
6 Core i7
8 Core POWER 7
POWER 6
22 Core Xeon
Sparc M7
The number of transistors in
a dense integrated circuit
doubles every two years.
32 Core AMD Epyc
Snapdragon 8CX
???

6. 6 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
Performance increase
1957: 13 men delivering a computer
Today: your mobile phone has
more computing power than all of
NASA in 1969, when it put two
astronauts on the moon.

7. 7 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
Miniaturization, capacity increase and cost decrease
1956: a 5 MB harddrive
being shipped by IBM
Today: you can buy a 1 TB
microSD card for $449.99
(~2 Mio pictures or 17,000 hrs music)

8. 8 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
Software is the new hardware
The latest release of Adobe Photoshop
contains more than 4.5 million lines of
code and can be accesses via the cloud.
1984: The original MacPaint
consisted of 5,804 lines of Pascal
code, supported by another 2,738
lines of machine language.

9. 9 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
Broadband and mobility
1993: can I borrow a
pager today?
Today: when will we eventually
get 5G in Belgium?

10. 10 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
Functionality and new applications
1981: a ‘computer in your pocket’ Today: a ‘personal assistant’

11. 11 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
Digital business in the cloud
1995: 32 million VHS copies
of the Lion King sold worldwide
Today: 139 million Netflix subscribers
worldwide; 15% of total downstream
volume of traffic across the internet

12. 12 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
Sensors and actuators embedded everywhere
Samsung Galaxy S10:
proximity, light, pressure,
accelerometer, barometer,
gyroscope, geomagnetic,
fingerprint, heart rate, Hall
sensor
Xiaomi Mi Band 2:
accelerometer,
heart rate monitor,
vibration engine
McLaren F1 car:
an electronic control unit (ECU) processes
over 1000 input parameters from engine,
gearbox, differential, throttle, clutch, energy
recovery system (ERS) and the drag
reduction system (DRS) and transmits more
than 1.5GB of live data during an average
300km grand prix.
3 10+ 300+

13. 13 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
Every-thing connected !?!

14. 14 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
Data is the new oil
Sensing
Monitoring
Analytics
Learning
Control

15. 15 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
Big data is about big numbers
An Airbus A350
generates 1.5 to 2.5
terabytes of data on
a transatlantic flight.
48% annual growth
in healthcare data;
medical wearable
devices are major
data sources.
510,000 comments,
293,000 status
updates, and 136,000
photos posted every
minute on Facebook.

16. 16 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
AI is the new electricity
“Just as electricity transformed
almost everything 100 years ago,
today I actually have a hard time
thinking of an industry that I don’t
think AI will transform in the next
several years.”
Andrew Ng
(AI pioneer, co-founder of
Google Brain and Coursera)
16

17. 17 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
Artificial Intelligence is (not) a wonder child
© sandserifcomics
statistics
Machine
Learning
AI

18. 18 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
Machines are becoming scarily intelligent
Chinese police have
used facial recognition
technology to arrest a
man among a crowd of
60,000 concert goers.
AI taught itself in
four hours to be the
best chess player in
the world.
A deepfake, life-size
re-creation of Salvador
Dalí takes selfies with
museum visitors.

19. 19 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
AI versus the human brain: it’s still a tie
Humans are stronger –
in the absence of data
or when applying
learnings from multiple
fields is necessary.
Humans are very
good, but machines
might be superior
with topics that
humans are not
taught to manage.
Humans may become
pretty good via
practice. In some
areas machines can
be superior.
Machines are superior.
No human can digest
the same amount of
data.
Lots of dataLittle data
Cognitively
quick
Cognitivelytime
consuming
Who’s better,
Eden Hazard or
Kevin De Bruyne?
How do I
apply Sun Tzu
in business?
Are we under
cyber attack?
Is this a good
strategy?
What breed
of cat is this?
Is this a cat? 这是一只猫吗？
Is this
cancer?
Is this
fraudulent?
Will he repay
the loan?
Will he click on
this link?
Both can be good
Machines are better
Humans are better
“sophistication”
“brute force”

20. 20 © 2019 Marc Jadoul20 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
innovation

21. 21 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
Everett Rogers’ diffusion of innovation (1962)
Innovators Early
adopters
Early
majority
Late
majority
Laggards
13.5%
2.5%
34% 34%
16%
Market penetration
Market
diffusion
0%
25%
50%
70%
100%
Marketshare

22. 22 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
Geoffrey Moore’s chasm theory (1991)
The greatest peril in developing high-tech markets is closing the gap
between the early adopters of any technology and the mass market.
Innovation driven Value driven
‘techies’
‘visionaries’
‘pragmatists’
‘conservatives’
‘skeptics’

23. 23 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
Many of today’s innovations are (still?) stuck in the chasm
Belgium: 5700 EVs
registered from
Jan 1 - Aug 31 2019
(<1.5% of new cars;
0,3% of the Belgian
car fleet)
Apple Watch market
share = ~50% ;
22.5 Mio units shipped
in 2018 (vs 217 Mio
iPhones)
Only ~2% of
Alexa owners have
ever used their
smart speakers for
buying something

24. 24 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
Big-bang disruption can happen very fast…
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2009 E2013
Smartphone OS market share
Today
85.2%
10.6%

25. 25 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
… but life cycles may be relatively short
Camera unit sales (millions)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 today
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Today: 3.3
billion smart
phone users.
2010: 121 Mio
2018: 19 Mio

26. 26 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
Shark fin adoption (2014)
Innovators Early
adopters
Early
majority
Late
majority
Laggards
Trial
users
Everybody else
• Digital disruption of products and
business models.
• Near-perfect market information.
• Near-instant market saturation.
• Rapid obsolescence of
digital components.

27. 27 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
Digital disruption is speeding up innovation and
changing traditional adoption models
In 2016, Tesla presold
nearly 400,000 Model
3’s in the first 2 weeks.
Only 200,000 ordered
during the next 2 years.
1,550,000 room nights
reservations each day.
Gross travel bookings
(2018) $92.7B, revenues
$14.5B, EBITDA $5.7B.
Digital distribution
models now account
for ¾ of home enter-
tainment spending.
Netflix sales grew
~10X since 2011

28. 28 © 2019 Marc Jadoul28 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
value

29. 29 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
The customer is always right (unless they’re wrong)
“If I had asked
people what they
wanted, they
would have said
‘faster horses.’”
― quote attributed to Henry Ford
Ford Model T, 1908

30. 30 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
The customer isn’t always the end-user
http://vk.com/piterskii_punk_wall
Baby loves
his new toy!
Me too.

31. 31 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
The value of an innovation only exists in the context
of its customer and/or user’s environment
Source: OVUM
Low
High
Perceivedvalue
Low HighPrice
price
focused
value & differentiation
focused

32. 32 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
Procter & Gamble’s moments of truth (2005)
First MOT
(contact experience)
Second MOT
(product experience)
Third MOT
(after-sales experience)
A “moment of truth” is the moment when a customer/user interacts
with a brand, product or service to form or change an impression
about that particular brand, product or service.

33. 33 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
Digital customer experience is a Uber’s value differentiator
1st MOT: ordering a ride
• Smartphone app, anytime and
‘anywhere’
• Enter destination on a map,
choose car options
• Upfront driver info, ETA and
cost estimate
2nd MOT: during the ride
• No language hassle
with the driver
• Track ride progress and
ETA in real time
• Easily change plans/ destination
(when needed)
3rd MOT: after the ride
• No cash or credit card (reader)
needed
• Automatic ride report
and receipt delivery
• Rate the driver and your
customer experience

34. 34 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
The zero moment of truth (Google, 2011)
60-80% of the buyer's journey is now done digitally. The ZMOT refers
to the point in the buying cycle when the buyer researches a product
prior to purchase, often before the seller even knows that they exist.
First MOT
(contact experience)
Second MOT
(product experience)
Third MOT
(after-sales experience)
ZMOT
(online research)

35. 35 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
Online research, social media targeting, peer reviews and
influencer marketing are the new normal
20% of purchasing
decisions are influenced
by Facebook; 9/10 users
watch videos about tech
products they buy.
80% of TripAdvisor
users read at least 6
to 12 reviews before
choosing a hotel.
Influencer
marketing
campaigns earn
$6.50 for every
dollar spent.

36. 36 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
Jeremy Rifkin’s zero marginal cost society (2014)
The IoT is emerging with the potential of pushing large
segments of economic life to near zero marginal cost in
the years ahead.
Prosumers can connect to the network and use big data,
analytics, and algorithms to accelerate efficiency,
dramatically increase productivity, and lower the marginal
cost of producing and sharing a wide range of products
and services to near zero, just like they now do with
information goods.
The plummeting of marginal costs is spawning a hybrid
economy—part capitalist market and part Collaborative
Commons—with far reaching implications for society.

37. 37 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
Services-based business models are eating the world
Smart in-car technology lets insurance
companies offer personalized premiums
based on current driving behavior.
Bundles.nl ‘reduces the
environmental impact as well as
maintenance, energy, water and
detergent cost.’

38. 38 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
Benefiting from hardware+software+services innovation
3D-printing on demand:
i.materialise, LS3D, 3D&I,
FormFactory, 3Dfutura, …
Shared Segways: Bird,
Lime, Troty, Poppy, Circ,
Flash, Dotts, …
Health monitoring & fitness
coaches: Cardio, Mysugr,
MyFitnessPal, Fooducate,
HeadSpace, …

39. 39 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
Fubini’s law (origin unknown)
1. People initially use technology to do what they do
now – but faster …
2. Then they gradually begin to use technology to do
new things …
3. The new things change life-styles and work-styles …
4. The new life-styles and work-styles change society …
… and eventually change technology.

40. 40 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
1991 Today

41. 41 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
“Innovation has nothing to do with
how many R&D dollars you have.
When Apple came up with the Mac,
Steve Jobs
Epilogue (a thought for the road)
IBM was spending at least 100 times more on R&D.
It's not about money. It's about the people you
have, how you're led, and how much you get it.”

42. 42 © 2019 Marc Jadoul
www.linkedin.com/in/mjadoul