SlideShare a Scribd company logo

Eyvindson iufro

M
melnhe

IUFRO 2014

1 of 17
Download to read offline
www.helsinki.fi/yliopisto
Assessment of Scenario Generation
Approaches for Forest Management
Planning through Stochastic
Programming
Kyle Eyvindson and Annika Kangas
27.1.2015Kyle Eyvindson 1
www.helsinki.fi/yliopisto
• Aim is to:
• Integrate uncertainty into the development of forest
plans
‒ Inventory, growth models, climate change...
• Produce a robust solution which meets the demands of
the decision maker(s), and can accommodate
preferences towards risks
• One method is through stochastic programming
‒ issues of tractability can become an issue
27.1.2015 2Kyle Eyvindson
Introduction
www.helsinki.fi/yliopisto
• Mathematical optimization where some parameters are
uncertain.
• Depending on the structure of the problem, different
problem formulation alternatives are available
‒ simple recourse
‒ two-stage (multi stage) recourse
1/27/2015 3Kyle Eyvindson
Stochastic programming:
Briefly
Determine
optimal time
to conduct
inventory to
maximize ...
Maximize First
period harvest
volume, s.t.
non-declining
harvest.
www.helsinki.fi/yliopisto
• From LP to SP – a 2 stand example:
H – harvest, T – Thin, N – Do nothing.
1/27/2015 4Kyle Eyvindson
SP formulated through a deterministic
approximation of the uncertainties.
(Birge and Louveaux 2011)
t=0
t=1
t=2
H NT
N N H T N
NT
N H T N
H NT
N N H T N
NT
N H T N
H NT
N N H T N
NT
N H T N
H NT
N N H T N
NT
N H T N
H NT
N N H T N
NT
N H T N
H NT
N N H T N
NT
N H T N
Each scenario is a representation of the current and future forest resources
www.helsinki.fi/yliopisto
• This requires the known (or estimated) distribution of
the error.
• A number of scenarios are developed to approximate
the distribution. (King and Wallace 2012)
‒ A need for balance:
 too many scenarios – tractability issues
 too few scenarios – problem representation issues
Kyle Eyvindson
Incorporating uncertainty into
the planning problem
www.helsinki.fi/yliopisto
• It depends on:
• the formulation used,
• the risk preferences involved,
• the amount of uncertainty under consideration
• the accuracy required
• One way to determine an appropriate number of scenarios
is through the sample average approximation (SAA,
Kleywegt et al. 2001.)
Kyle Eyvindson
How many scenarios is enough?

Recommended

Survey and Analysis of Capital Budgeting Methods
Survey and Analysis of Capital Budgeting MethodsSurvey and Analysis of Capital Budgeting Methods
Survey and Analysis of Capital Budgeting MethodsRaju Basnet Chhetri
 
Commercial j party customers
Commercial j party   customersCommercial j party   customers
Commercial j party customersprincevalium
 
Palestra Ministrada no 3 Encontro do GTS-CE
Palestra Ministrada no 3 Encontro do GTS-CEPalestra Ministrada no 3 Encontro do GTS-CE
Palestra Ministrada no 3 Encontro do GTS-CEHedley Luna
 
Rva online orientation 2012 13
Rva online orientation 2012 13Rva online orientation 2012 13
Rva online orientation 2012 13Holewinski
 
Maths in daily core
Maths in daily coreMaths in daily core
Maths in daily coreIshaan Jain
 
נאום אלי מוסרי
נאום אלי מוסרינאום אלי מוסרי
נאום אלי מוסריEliMosseri
 

More Related Content

Viewers also liked

Nss fellowship presentation final
Nss fellowship presentation final  Nss fellowship presentation final
Nss fellowship presentation final sunnychheda
 
Hb2015 intro
Hb2015 introHb2015 intro
Hb2015 intromelnhe
 
Creating Systemic Change
Creating Systemic Change Creating Systemic Change
Creating Systemic Change Pazstor
 
51 (chico xavier)-andreluis-entreaterraeocéu
51 (chico xavier)-andreluis-entreaterraeocéu51 (chico xavier)-andreluis-entreaterraeocéu
51 (chico xavier)-andreluis-entreaterraeocéucentrodeestudos1987
 
Sophomore Parent Night Presentation
Sophomore Parent Night PresentationSophomore Parent Night Presentation
Sophomore Parent Night Presentationetowahwebmaster
 
Msed gala slides for cocktails and afterglow
Msed gala slides for cocktails and afterglowMsed gala slides for cocktails and afterglow
Msed gala slides for cocktails and afterglowCheryl Dry
 
Sap flow: Calcium, and what about N and P?
Sap flow: Calcium, and what about N and P?Sap flow: Calcium, and what about N and P?
Sap flow: Calcium, and what about N and P?melnhe
 
Fisk lter comp
Fisk lter compFisk lter comp
Fisk lter compmelnhe
 
Film marketing and distribution
Film marketing and distributionFilm marketing and distribution
Film marketing and distributionotyrrell10
 
Hb2015 holmes-mineralization
Hb2015 holmes-mineralizationHb2015 holmes-mineralization
Hb2015 holmes-mineralizationmelnhe
 
PIDC Strategic Mgt
PIDC Strategic Mgt PIDC Strategic Mgt
PIDC Strategic Mgt small_nomi
 
The effect of P and N addition on red maple seed production
The effect of P and N addition on red maple seed productionThe effect of P and N addition on red maple seed production
The effect of P and N addition on red maple seed productionmelnhe
 
Stg Managment Report
Stg Managment ReportStg Managment Report
Stg Managment Reportsmall_nomi
 
About Spaceavatar
About SpaceavatarAbout Spaceavatar
About Spaceavatarspaceavatar
 
Hb2015 swindon-carbon
Hb2015 swindon-carbonHb2015 swindon-carbon
Hb2015 swindon-carbonmelnhe
 

Viewers also liked (19)

Conics 2
Conics 2Conics 2
Conics 2
 
Nss fellowship presentation final
Nss fellowship presentation final  Nss fellowship presentation final
Nss fellowship presentation final
 
Hb2015 intro
Hb2015 introHb2015 intro
Hb2015 intro
 
4 iso 9001 2000 standard
4 iso 9001 2000 standard4 iso 9001 2000 standard
4 iso 9001 2000 standard
 
Creating Systemic Change
Creating Systemic Change Creating Systemic Change
Creating Systemic Change
 
51 (chico xavier)-andreluis-entreaterraeocéu
51 (chico xavier)-andreluis-entreaterraeocéu51 (chico xavier)-andreluis-entreaterraeocéu
51 (chico xavier)-andreluis-entreaterraeocéu
 
Bio Newsletter - Ball
Bio Newsletter - BallBio Newsletter - Ball
Bio Newsletter - Ball
 
Sophomore Parent Night Presentation
Sophomore Parent Night PresentationSophomore Parent Night Presentation
Sophomore Parent Night Presentation
 
Msed gala slides for cocktails and afterglow
Msed gala slides for cocktails and afterglowMsed gala slides for cocktails and afterglow
Msed gala slides for cocktails and afterglow
 
Sap flow: Calcium, and what about N and P?
Sap flow: Calcium, and what about N and P?Sap flow: Calcium, and what about N and P?
Sap flow: Calcium, and what about N and P?
 
Fisk lter comp
Fisk lter compFisk lter comp
Fisk lter comp
 
Film marketing and distribution
Film marketing and distributionFilm marketing and distribution
Film marketing and distribution
 
Hb2015 holmes-mineralization
Hb2015 holmes-mineralizationHb2015 holmes-mineralization
Hb2015 holmes-mineralization
 
PIDC Strategic Mgt
PIDC Strategic Mgt PIDC Strategic Mgt
PIDC Strategic Mgt
 
The effect of P and N addition on red maple seed production
The effect of P and N addition on red maple seed productionThe effect of P and N addition on red maple seed production
The effect of P and N addition on red maple seed production
 
Conics 2
Conics 2Conics 2
Conics 2
 
Stg Managment Report
Stg Managment ReportStg Managment Report
Stg Managment Report
 
About Spaceavatar
About SpaceavatarAbout Spaceavatar
About Spaceavatar
 
Hb2015 swindon-carbon
Hb2015 swindon-carbonHb2015 swindon-carbon
Hb2015 swindon-carbon
 

Similar to Eyvindson iufro

Eyvindson iufro
Eyvindson iufroEyvindson iufro
Eyvindson iufroquestRCN
 
8. Nicole Player, MGT - Creating a Mine with Datamine Scenario Planning and S...
8. Nicole Player, MGT - Creating a Mine with Datamine Scenario Planning and S...8. Nicole Player, MGT - Creating a Mine with Datamine Scenario Planning and S...
8. Nicole Player, MGT - Creating a Mine with Datamine Scenario Planning and S...Kristy Marshall
 
Operations Research.pptx
Operations Research.pptxOperations Research.pptx
Operations Research.pptxbanhi.guha
 
Machine Learning part 3 - Introduction to data science
Machine Learning part 3 - Introduction to data science Machine Learning part 3 - Introduction to data science
Machine Learning part 3 - Introduction to data science Frank Kienle
 
05-risk_assesment.ppt
05-risk_assesment.ppt05-risk_assesment.ppt
05-risk_assesment.pptKareemRasmy1
 
Week12 slides
Week12 slidesWeek12 slides
Week12 slideshenry KKK
 
Stochastic Analysis of Resource Plays: Maximizing Portfolio Value and Mitiga...
Stochastic Analysis of Resource Plays:  Maximizing Portfolio Value and Mitiga...Stochastic Analysis of Resource Plays:  Maximizing Portfolio Value and Mitiga...
Stochastic Analysis of Resource Plays: Maximizing Portfolio Value and Mitiga...Portfolio Decisions
 
Risk Management Best Practices
Risk Management Best PracticesRisk Management Best Practices
Risk Management Best PracticesPMILebanonChapter
 
Risk Event Modeling and Event Chains
Risk Event Modeling and Event ChainsRisk Event Modeling and Event Chains
Risk Event Modeling and Event ChainsIntaver Insititute
 
Total Survey Error across a program of three national surveys: using a risk m...
Total Survey Error across a program of three national surveys: using a risk m...Total Survey Error across a program of three national surveys: using a risk m...
Total Survey Error across a program of three national surveys: using a risk m...Sonia Whiteley
 
Online machine learning in Streaming Applications
Online machine learning in Streaming ApplicationsOnline machine learning in Streaming Applications
Online machine learning in Streaming ApplicationsStavros Kontopoulos
 
Quantitative Project Risk Analysis
Quantitative Project Risk AnalysisQuantitative Project Risk Analysis
Quantitative Project Risk AnalysisIntaver Insititute
 
Download-manuals-surface water-software-48appliedstatistics
 Download-manuals-surface water-software-48appliedstatistics Download-manuals-surface water-software-48appliedstatistics
Download-manuals-surface water-software-48appliedstatisticshydrologyproject0
 
Download-manuals-surface water-software-48appliedstatistics
 Download-manuals-surface water-software-48appliedstatistics Download-manuals-surface water-software-48appliedstatistics
Download-manuals-surface water-software-48appliedstatisticshydrologyproject001
 
Download-manuals-surface water-software-48appliedstatistics
 Download-manuals-surface water-software-48appliedstatistics Download-manuals-surface water-software-48appliedstatistics
Download-manuals-surface water-software-48appliedstatisticshydrologyproject0
 
Risk analysis and management
Risk analysis and managementRisk analysis and management
Risk analysis and managementIvo Andreev
 
Quantitative Project Risk Analysis
Quantitative Project Risk AnalysisQuantitative Project Risk Analysis
Quantitative Project Risk AnalysisIntaver Insititute
 
2014.05.19 - OECD-ECLAC Workshop_Session 2_Doyne FARMER
2014.05.19 - OECD-ECLAC Workshop_Session 2_Doyne FARMER2014.05.19 - OECD-ECLAC Workshop_Session 2_Doyne FARMER
2014.05.19 - OECD-ECLAC Workshop_Session 2_Doyne FARMEROECD_NAEC
 

Similar to Eyvindson iufro (20)

Eyvindson iufro
Eyvindson iufroEyvindson iufro
Eyvindson iufro
 
8. Nicole Player, MGT - Creating a Mine with Datamine Scenario Planning and S...
8. Nicole Player, MGT - Creating a Mine with Datamine Scenario Planning and S...8. Nicole Player, MGT - Creating a Mine with Datamine Scenario Planning and S...
8. Nicole Player, MGT - Creating a Mine with Datamine Scenario Planning and S...
 
cas_washington_nov2010_web
cas_washington_nov2010_webcas_washington_nov2010_web
cas_washington_nov2010_web
 
Operations Research.pptx
Operations Research.pptxOperations Research.pptx
Operations Research.pptx
 
Machine Learning part 3 - Introduction to data science
Machine Learning part 3 - Introduction to data science Machine Learning part 3 - Introduction to data science
Machine Learning part 3 - Introduction to data science
 
05-risk_assesment.ppt
05-risk_assesment.ppt05-risk_assesment.ppt
05-risk_assesment.ppt
 
Week12 slides
Week12 slidesWeek12 slides
Week12 slides
 
Stochastic Analysis of Resource Plays: Maximizing Portfolio Value and Mitiga...
Stochastic Analysis of Resource Plays:  Maximizing Portfolio Value and Mitiga...Stochastic Analysis of Resource Plays:  Maximizing Portfolio Value and Mitiga...
Stochastic Analysis of Resource Plays: Maximizing Portfolio Value and Mitiga...
 
Risk Management Best Practices
Risk Management Best PracticesRisk Management Best Practices
Risk Management Best Practices
 
Risk Event Modeling and Event Chains
Risk Event Modeling and Event ChainsRisk Event Modeling and Event Chains
Risk Event Modeling and Event Chains
 
Total Survey Error across a program of three national surveys: using a risk m...
Total Survey Error across a program of three national surveys: using a risk m...Total Survey Error across a program of three national surveys: using a risk m...
Total Survey Error across a program of three national surveys: using a risk m...
 
Online machine learning in Streaming Applications
Online machine learning in Streaming ApplicationsOnline machine learning in Streaming Applications
Online machine learning in Streaming Applications
 
Quantitative Project Risk Analysis
Quantitative Project Risk AnalysisQuantitative Project Risk Analysis
Quantitative Project Risk Analysis
 
Download-manuals-surface water-software-48appliedstatistics
 Download-manuals-surface water-software-48appliedstatistics Download-manuals-surface water-software-48appliedstatistics
Download-manuals-surface water-software-48appliedstatistics
 
Download-manuals-surface water-software-48appliedstatistics
 Download-manuals-surface water-software-48appliedstatistics Download-manuals-surface water-software-48appliedstatistics
Download-manuals-surface water-software-48appliedstatistics
 
Download-manuals-surface water-software-48appliedstatistics
 Download-manuals-surface water-software-48appliedstatistics Download-manuals-surface water-software-48appliedstatistics
Download-manuals-surface water-software-48appliedstatistics
 
Kommunikasjon: A tool for managing product quality
Kommunikasjon: A tool for managing product qualityKommunikasjon: A tool for managing product quality
Kommunikasjon: A tool for managing product quality
 
Risk analysis and management
Risk analysis and managementRisk analysis and management
Risk analysis and management
 
Quantitative Project Risk Analysis
Quantitative Project Risk AnalysisQuantitative Project Risk Analysis
Quantitative Project Risk Analysis
 
2014.05.19 - OECD-ECLAC Workshop_Session 2_Doyne FARMER
2014.05.19 - OECD-ECLAC Workshop_Session 2_Doyne FARMER2014.05.19 - OECD-ECLAC Workshop_Session 2_Doyne FARMER
2014.05.19 - OECD-ECLAC Workshop_Session 2_Doyne FARMER
 

More from melnhe

Distinguishing N and P addition from the air using imaging spectroscopy. Alex...
Distinguishing N and P addition from the air using imaging spectroscopy. Alex...Distinguishing N and P addition from the air using imaging spectroscopy. Alex...
Distinguishing N and P addition from the air using imaging spectroscopy. Alex...melnhe
 
Germinants: The next generation. Denise Rauschendorfer
Germinants: The next generation. Denise RauschendorferGerminants: The next generation. Denise Rauschendorfer
Germinants: The next generation. Denise Rauschendorfermelnhe
 
Mycorrhizal type and co-limitation of forest productivity. Noah Blumenthal
Mycorrhizal type and co-limitation of forest productivity. Noah BlumenthalMycorrhizal type and co-limitation of forest productivity. Noah Blumenthal
Mycorrhizal type and co-limitation of forest productivity. Noah Blumenthalmelnhe
 
Grow with the changes: Forest succession and woody debris. Joe Nash
Grow with the changes: Forest succession and woody debris. Joe NashGrow with the changes: Forest succession and woody debris. Joe Nash
Grow with the changes: Forest succession and woody debris. Joe Nashmelnhe
 
Litterfall and soil respiration fluxes in the MELNHE study. Thomas Mann
Litterfall and soil respiration fluxes in the MELNHE study. Thomas MannLitterfall and soil respiration fluxes in the MELNHE study. Thomas Mann
Litterfall and soil respiration fluxes in the MELNHE study. Thomas Mannmelnhe
 
N-P co-limitation in young northern hardwood forest. Tim Fahey
N-P co-limitation in young northern hardwood forest. Tim FaheyN-P co-limitation in young northern hardwood forest. Tim Fahey
N-P co-limitation in young northern hardwood forest. Tim Faheymelnhe
 
Fine dining: root morphology, mycorrhizal colonization, and nutrient amendmen...
Fine dining: root morphology, mycorrhizal colonization, and nutrient amendmen...Fine dining: root morphology, mycorrhizal colonization, and nutrient amendmen...
Fine dining: root morphology, mycorrhizal colonization, and nutrient amendmen...melnhe
 
Could co-limitation be caused by different nutrients limiting shoots and root...
Could co-limitation be caused by different nutrients limiting shoots and root...Could co-limitation be caused by different nutrients limiting shoots and root...
Could co-limitation be caused by different nutrients limiting shoots and root...melnhe
 
Sugar maple leaf characteristics vary with depth in the crown and nutrient ad...
Sugar maple leaf characteristics vary with depth in the crown and nutrient ad...Sugar maple leaf characteristics vary with depth in the crown and nutrient ad...
Sugar maple leaf characteristics vary with depth in the crown and nutrient ad...melnhe
 
The timing of senescence affects foliar p resorption dan hong
The timing of senescence affects foliar p resorption   dan hongThe timing of senescence affects foliar p resorption   dan hong
The timing of senescence affects foliar p resorption dan hongmelnhe
 
Space wars the fight for light in the stands of bartlett sarah congress
Space wars  the fight for light in the stands of bartlett   sarah congressSpace wars  the fight for light in the stands of bartlett   sarah congress
Space wars the fight for light in the stands of bartlett sarah congressmelnhe
 
Having a stake in nutrient cycling effects of n and p addition on wood decay...
Having a stake in nutrient cycling  effects of n and p addition on wood decay...Having a stake in nutrient cycling  effects of n and p addition on wood decay...
Having a stake in nutrient cycling effects of n and p addition on wood decay...melnhe
 
Fruiting response of ectomycorrhizal fungi to nutrient additions claudia vi...
Fruiting response of ectomycorrhizal fungi to nutrient additions   claudia vi...Fruiting response of ectomycorrhizal fungi to nutrient additions   claudia vi...
Fruiting response of ectomycorrhizal fungi to nutrient additions claudia vi...melnhe
 
Does the fate of n depend on p availability in soil - samuel butler
Does the fate of n depend on p availability in soil   - samuel butlerDoes the fate of n depend on p availability in soil   - samuel butler
Does the fate of n depend on p availability in soil - samuel butlermelnhe
 
Belowground c allocation estimated as soil respiration minus aboveground litt...
Belowground c allocation estimated as soil respiration minus aboveground litt...Belowground c allocation estimated as soil respiration minus aboveground litt...
Belowground c allocation estimated as soil respiration minus aboveground litt...melnhe
 
Baby boomers are there any surviving germinants from the recent mast year -...
Baby boomers  are there any surviving germinants from the recent mast year  -...Baby boomers  are there any surviving germinants from the recent mast year  -...
Baby boomers are there any surviving germinants from the recent mast year -...melnhe
 
And you thought there were no earthworms in our forests
And you thought there were no earthworms in our forests  And you thought there were no earthworms in our forests
And you thought there were no earthworms in our forests melnhe
 
Intro for asm workshop see
Intro for asm workshop seeIntro for asm workshop see
Intro for asm workshop seemelnhe
 
Asm2018 7 young
Asm2018 7 youngAsm2018 7 young
Asm2018 7 youngmelnhe
 
Asm2018 6 dietze
Asm2018 6 dietzeAsm2018 6 dietze
Asm2018 6 dietzemelnhe
 

More from melnhe (20)

Distinguishing N and P addition from the air using imaging spectroscopy. Alex...
Distinguishing N and P addition from the air using imaging spectroscopy. Alex...Distinguishing N and P addition from the air using imaging spectroscopy. Alex...
Distinguishing N and P addition from the air using imaging spectroscopy. Alex...
 
Germinants: The next generation. Denise Rauschendorfer
Germinants: The next generation. Denise RauschendorferGerminants: The next generation. Denise Rauschendorfer
Germinants: The next generation. Denise Rauschendorfer
 
Mycorrhizal type and co-limitation of forest productivity. Noah Blumenthal
Mycorrhizal type and co-limitation of forest productivity. Noah BlumenthalMycorrhizal type and co-limitation of forest productivity. Noah Blumenthal
Mycorrhizal type and co-limitation of forest productivity. Noah Blumenthal
 
Grow with the changes: Forest succession and woody debris. Joe Nash
Grow with the changes: Forest succession and woody debris. Joe NashGrow with the changes: Forest succession and woody debris. Joe Nash
Grow with the changes: Forest succession and woody debris. Joe Nash
 
Litterfall and soil respiration fluxes in the MELNHE study. Thomas Mann
Litterfall and soil respiration fluxes in the MELNHE study. Thomas MannLitterfall and soil respiration fluxes in the MELNHE study. Thomas Mann
Litterfall and soil respiration fluxes in the MELNHE study. Thomas Mann
 
N-P co-limitation in young northern hardwood forest. Tim Fahey
N-P co-limitation in young northern hardwood forest. Tim FaheyN-P co-limitation in young northern hardwood forest. Tim Fahey
N-P co-limitation in young northern hardwood forest. Tim Fahey
 
Fine dining: root morphology, mycorrhizal colonization, and nutrient amendmen...
Fine dining: root morphology, mycorrhizal colonization, and nutrient amendmen...Fine dining: root morphology, mycorrhizal colonization, and nutrient amendmen...
Fine dining: root morphology, mycorrhizal colonization, and nutrient amendmen...
 
Could co-limitation be caused by different nutrients limiting shoots and root...
Could co-limitation be caused by different nutrients limiting shoots and root...Could co-limitation be caused by different nutrients limiting shoots and root...
Could co-limitation be caused by different nutrients limiting shoots and root...
 
Sugar maple leaf characteristics vary with depth in the crown and nutrient ad...
Sugar maple leaf characteristics vary with depth in the crown and nutrient ad...Sugar maple leaf characteristics vary with depth in the crown and nutrient ad...
Sugar maple leaf characteristics vary with depth in the crown and nutrient ad...
 
The timing of senescence affects foliar p resorption dan hong
The timing of senescence affects foliar p resorption   dan hongThe timing of senescence affects foliar p resorption   dan hong
The timing of senescence affects foliar p resorption dan hong
 
Space wars the fight for light in the stands of bartlett sarah congress
Space wars  the fight for light in the stands of bartlett   sarah congressSpace wars  the fight for light in the stands of bartlett   sarah congress
Space wars the fight for light in the stands of bartlett sarah congress
 
Having a stake in nutrient cycling effects of n and p addition on wood decay...
Having a stake in nutrient cycling  effects of n and p addition on wood decay...Having a stake in nutrient cycling  effects of n and p addition on wood decay...
Having a stake in nutrient cycling effects of n and p addition on wood decay...
 
Fruiting response of ectomycorrhizal fungi to nutrient additions claudia vi...
Fruiting response of ectomycorrhizal fungi to nutrient additions   claudia vi...Fruiting response of ectomycorrhizal fungi to nutrient additions   claudia vi...
Fruiting response of ectomycorrhizal fungi to nutrient additions claudia vi...
 
Does the fate of n depend on p availability in soil - samuel butler
Does the fate of n depend on p availability in soil   - samuel butlerDoes the fate of n depend on p availability in soil   - samuel butler
Does the fate of n depend on p availability in soil - samuel butler
 
Belowground c allocation estimated as soil respiration minus aboveground litt...
Belowground c allocation estimated as soil respiration minus aboveground litt...Belowground c allocation estimated as soil respiration minus aboveground litt...
Belowground c allocation estimated as soil respiration minus aboveground litt...
 
Baby boomers are there any surviving germinants from the recent mast year -...
Baby boomers  are there any surviving germinants from the recent mast year  -...Baby boomers  are there any surviving germinants from the recent mast year  -...
Baby boomers are there any surviving germinants from the recent mast year -...
 
And you thought there were no earthworms in our forests
And you thought there were no earthworms in our forests  And you thought there were no earthworms in our forests
And you thought there were no earthworms in our forests
 
Intro for asm workshop see
Intro for asm workshop seeIntro for asm workshop see
Intro for asm workshop see
 
Asm2018 7 young
Asm2018 7 youngAsm2018 7 young
Asm2018 7 young
 
Asm2018 6 dietze
Asm2018 6 dietzeAsm2018 6 dietze
Asm2018 6 dietze
 

Recently uploaded

#countupto100 LinkedIn Contest Answers and Winners
#countupto100 LinkedIn Contest Answers and Winners#countupto100 LinkedIn Contest Answers and Winners
#countupto100 LinkedIn Contest Answers and WinnersGeloTon
 
Coffs Harbour Australie Handelsmissie presentatie
Coffs Harbour Australie Handelsmissie presentatieCoffs Harbour Australie Handelsmissie presentatie
Coffs Harbour Australie Handelsmissie presentatieMetaSus
 
Social issues and the environment book material pdf
Social issues and the environment book material pdfSocial issues and the environment book material pdf
Social issues and the environment book material pdf077AnzrFyaz
 
Growth, rhizome yield and biochemical components of turmeric (Curcuma longa L...
Growth, rhizome yield and biochemical components of turmeric (Curcuma longa L...Growth, rhizome yield and biochemical components of turmeric (Curcuma longa L...
Growth, rhizome yield and biochemical components of turmeric (Curcuma longa L...Open Access Research Paper
 
Solar KW Oxfordshire solar installations
Solar KW Oxfordshire solar installationsSolar KW Oxfordshire solar installations
Solar KW Oxfordshire solar installationsSolar KW Limited
 
STS NEW BIODIVERSITY TODAY - General Education
STS NEW  BIODIVERSITY  TODAY - General EducationSTS NEW  BIODIVERSITY  TODAY - General Education
STS NEW BIODIVERSITY TODAY - General EducationCARLAPASCUAL5
 
GFCM fish forum climate resilient fisheries
GFCM fish forum climate resilient fisheriesGFCM fish forum climate resilient fisheries
GFCM fish forum climate resilient fisheriesMark Dickey-Collas
 
澳大利亚国立大学毕业证制作流程ANU毕业证文凭学历学位认证
澳大利亚国立大学毕业证制作流程ANU毕业证文凭学历学位认证澳大利亚国立大学毕业证制作流程ANU毕业证文凭学历学位认证
澳大利亚国立大学毕业证制作流程ANU毕业证文凭学历学位认证8cuw8kc0
 
Revisions to the Enforcement Rules of the Climate Change Response Act
Revisions to the Enforcement Rules of the Climate Change Response ActRevisions to the Enforcement Rules of the Climate Change Response Act
Revisions to the Enforcement Rules of the Climate Change Response Actccappr
 
bioremediation_microbial remediationppt.pptx
bioremediation_microbial remediationppt.pptxbioremediation_microbial remediationppt.pptx
bioremediation_microbial remediationppt.pptxSanghamitraMohapatra5
 
Compact Hydrogen Refueling Station(CHRS)
Compact Hydrogen Refueling Station(CHRS)Compact Hydrogen Refueling Station(CHRS)
Compact Hydrogen Refueling Station(CHRS)HNO International
 
septic tank-biotech-biofilter-biofit-biofil-biotank-bio ipal
septic tank-biotech-biofilter-biofit-biofil-biotank-bio ipalseptic tank-biotech-biofilter-biofit-biofil-biotank-bio ipal
septic tank-biotech-biofilter-biofit-biofil-biotank-bio ipalBiotech Internasioanal
 
2024-02-24 Composting at Home 101 without voucher for slideshare test 1.ppsx
2024-02-24 Composting at Home 101 without voucher for slideshare test 1.ppsx2024-02-24 Composting at Home 101 without voucher for slideshare test 1.ppsx
2024-02-24 Composting at Home 101 without voucher for slideshare test 1.ppsxEllen Book
 

Recently uploaded (13)

#countupto100 LinkedIn Contest Answers and Winners
#countupto100 LinkedIn Contest Answers and Winners#countupto100 LinkedIn Contest Answers and Winners
#countupto100 LinkedIn Contest Answers and Winners
 
Coffs Harbour Australie Handelsmissie presentatie
Coffs Harbour Australie Handelsmissie presentatieCoffs Harbour Australie Handelsmissie presentatie
Coffs Harbour Australie Handelsmissie presentatie
 
Social issues and the environment book material pdf
Social issues and the environment book material pdfSocial issues and the environment book material pdf
Social issues and the environment book material pdf
 
Growth, rhizome yield and biochemical components of turmeric (Curcuma longa L...
Growth, rhizome yield and biochemical components of turmeric (Curcuma longa L...Growth, rhizome yield and biochemical components of turmeric (Curcuma longa L...
Growth, rhizome yield and biochemical components of turmeric (Curcuma longa L...
 
Solar KW Oxfordshire solar installations
Solar KW Oxfordshire solar installationsSolar KW Oxfordshire solar installations
Solar KW Oxfordshire solar installations
 
STS NEW BIODIVERSITY TODAY - General Education
STS NEW  BIODIVERSITY  TODAY - General EducationSTS NEW  BIODIVERSITY  TODAY - General Education
STS NEW BIODIVERSITY TODAY - General Education
 
GFCM fish forum climate resilient fisheries
GFCM fish forum climate resilient fisheriesGFCM fish forum climate resilient fisheries
GFCM fish forum climate resilient fisheries
 
澳大利亚国立大学毕业证制作流程ANU毕业证文凭学历学位认证
澳大利亚国立大学毕业证制作流程ANU毕业证文凭学历学位认证澳大利亚国立大学毕业证制作流程ANU毕业证文凭学历学位认证
澳大利亚国立大学毕业证制作流程ANU毕业证文凭学历学位认证
 
Revisions to the Enforcement Rules of the Climate Change Response Act
Revisions to the Enforcement Rules of the Climate Change Response ActRevisions to the Enforcement Rules of the Climate Change Response Act
Revisions to the Enforcement Rules of the Climate Change Response Act
 
bioremediation_microbial remediationppt.pptx
bioremediation_microbial remediationppt.pptxbioremediation_microbial remediationppt.pptx
bioremediation_microbial remediationppt.pptx
 
Compact Hydrogen Refueling Station(CHRS)
Compact Hydrogen Refueling Station(CHRS)Compact Hydrogen Refueling Station(CHRS)
Compact Hydrogen Refueling Station(CHRS)
 
septic tank-biotech-biofilter-biofit-biofil-biotank-bio ipal
septic tank-biotech-biofilter-biofit-biofil-biotank-bio ipalseptic tank-biotech-biofilter-biofit-biofil-biotank-bio ipal
septic tank-biotech-biofilter-biofit-biofil-biotank-bio ipal
 
2024-02-24 Composting at Home 101 without voucher for slideshare test 1.ppsx
2024-02-24 Composting at Home 101 without voucher for slideshare test 1.ppsx2024-02-24 Composting at Home 101 without voucher for slideshare test 1.ppsx
2024-02-24 Composting at Home 101 without voucher for slideshare test 1.ppsx
 

Eyvindson iufro

  • 1. www.helsinki.fi/yliopisto Assessment of Scenario Generation Approaches for Forest Management Planning through Stochastic Programming Kyle Eyvindson and Annika Kangas 27.1.2015Kyle Eyvindson 1
  • 2. www.helsinki.fi/yliopisto • Aim is to: • Integrate uncertainty into the development of forest plans ‒ Inventory, growth models, climate change... • Produce a robust solution which meets the demands of the decision maker(s), and can accommodate preferences towards risks • One method is through stochastic programming ‒ issues of tractability can become an issue 27.1.2015 2Kyle Eyvindson Introduction
  • 3. www.helsinki.fi/yliopisto • Mathematical optimization where some parameters are uncertain. • Depending on the structure of the problem, different problem formulation alternatives are available ‒ simple recourse ‒ two-stage (multi stage) recourse 1/27/2015 3Kyle Eyvindson Stochastic programming: Briefly Determine optimal time to conduct inventory to maximize ... Maximize First period harvest volume, s.t. non-declining harvest.
  • 4. www.helsinki.fi/yliopisto • From LP to SP – a 2 stand example: H – harvest, T – Thin, N – Do nothing. 1/27/2015 4Kyle Eyvindson SP formulated through a deterministic approximation of the uncertainties. (Birge and Louveaux 2011) t=0 t=1 t=2 H NT N N H T N NT N H T N H NT N N H T N NT N H T N H NT N N H T N NT N H T N H NT N N H T N NT N H T N H NT N N H T N NT N H T N H NT N N H T N NT N H T N Each scenario is a representation of the current and future forest resources
  • 5. www.helsinki.fi/yliopisto • This requires the known (or estimated) distribution of the error. • A number of scenarios are developed to approximate the distribution. (King and Wallace 2012) ‒ A need for balance:  too many scenarios – tractability issues  too few scenarios – problem representation issues Kyle Eyvindson Incorporating uncertainty into the planning problem
  • 6. www.helsinki.fi/yliopisto • It depends on: • the formulation used, • the risk preferences involved, • the amount of uncertainty under consideration • the accuracy required • One way to determine an appropriate number of scenarios is through the sample average approximation (SAA, Kleywegt et al. 2001.) Kyle Eyvindson How many scenarios is enough?
  • 7. www.helsinki.fi/yliopisto • A method for evaluating the quality of a stochastic solution. • The algorithm simply: ‒ Select the size of the samples (N and N’), and number of replications (M) ‒ For each m in M: ‒ Solve the problem ‒ This provides an estimate of the objective function (using N), and with this solution, evaluate the problem using N’ ‒ Evaluate the optimality gap and variance of the estimator – if gap is too high, increase N and/or N’ Kyle Eyvindson Sample Average Approximation (Kleywegt et al. 2001) N’>>N
  • 8. www.helsinki.fi/yliopisto • A forest where the DM wishes to • maximize first period income ‒ subject to: ‒ even flow constraints; ‒ and an end inventory constraint. • Small forest holding ‒ 47.3 hectares, 41 stands Forest planning problem 27.1.2015 8Kyle Eyvindson 22% 17% 20% 9% 32% Age Class Distribution (years) 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80+ 30% 8% 9% 6% 31% 16% Diameter Distribution (m) 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25+ 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Pine Spruce Birch Wood Volume (m3/ha)
  • 9. www.helsinki.fi/yliopistoKyle Eyvindson • Two cases are studied: • The case where only the inventory uncertainty is included • and where both inventory uncertainty and growth model errors are included. • A few assumptions were made: 1. A recent inventory was conducted 2. The inventory method was assumed to have an error which was normally distributed, mean zero and a standard deviation of 20% of the mean height and basal area. Scenario generation approach:
  • 10. www.helsinki.fi/yliopisto • For each inventory error, a set of 50 growth model error scenarios were simulated. • The growth model errors were generated using a one period autoregressive process [AR(1)], using the same models as Pietilä et al. 2010. • Forest simulation was done using SIMO (Rasinmäki et al. 2009) • Created a set of 528 schedules for the 41 stands (~13 schedules per stand) for each scenario. 27.1.2015 10Kyle Eyvindson Scenario generation approach: (2)
  • 11. www.helsinki.fi/yliopistoKyle Eyvindson • A standard even flow problem. • Maximize: 1st period incomes ‒ subject to even flow and end inventory constraints  Using both hard and soft constraints • For application in a stochastic setting this problem needs slight modification: • Maximize: Expected 1st period incomes – sum of scenario based negative deviations ‒ subject to soft even flow an end inventory constraints  Having strict constraints is not the real intention behind the even-flow problem.  The soft constraints allow for a ‘more or less’ even flow in all scenarios. Sample problem:
  • 12. www.helsinki.fi/yliopisto • Deterministic solution Kyle Eyvindson A visualization: Soft constraints Hard constraints
  • 13. www.helsinki.fi/yliopisto • Stochastic solution Kyle Eyvindson A visualization: Light weight on negative deviations Strong weight on negative deviations
  • 14. www.helsinki.fi/yliopistoKyle Eyvindson Results of the SAA: Light weight on negative deviations: Only inventory errors Inventory and Growth model errors
  • 15. www.helsinki.fi/yliopistoKyle Eyvindson Results of the SAA: Strong weight on negative deviations: Only inventory errors Inventory and Growth model errors
  • 16. www.helsinki.fi/yliopisto • The size of the stochastic problem need not be enormous. • The size of the problem depends upon: ‒ the amount of uncertainty under consideration, ‒ the importance the uncertainty has in the problem formulation, and ‒ the acceptability of selecting a ‘sub-optimal’ solution. • A stochastic program with a sizable optimality gap still outperform the deterministic equivalent. 27.1.2015 16Kyle Eyvindson Conclusions:
  • 17. www.helsinki.fi/yliopisto • Birge, J.R., and Louveaux, F. 2011. Introduction to stochastic programming. Second edition. Springer, New York. 499 p. • Kangas, A., Hartikainen, M., and Miettinen, K. 2013. Simultaneous optimization of harvest schedule and measurement strategy. Scand. J. Forest Res.(ahead-of-print), 1-10. doi: 10.1080/02827581.2013.823237. • Kleywegt, Shapiro, Homem-de-Mello. 2001. The sample average approximation for stochastic discrete optimization. SIAM. J. OPTIM. (12:2) 479-502. • King, A.J., and Wallace, S.W. 2012 Modeling with Stochastic Programming, Springer, New York • Krzemienowski, A. & Ogryczak W. 2005. On extending the LP computable risk measures to account downside risk. Computational Optimization and Applications 32:133-160. • Rasinmäki, J., Mäkinen, A., and Kalliovirta, J. 2009. SIMO: an adaptable simulation framework for multiscale forest resource data. Comput. Electron. Agric. 66(1): 76– 84. doi: 10.1016/j.compag.2008.12.007. • Pietilä, Kangas, Mäkinen, Mehtätalo. 2010. Influence of Growth Prediction Errors on the Expeced Loses from Forest Decisions. Silva Fennica 44(5). 829:843. 27.1.2015 17Kyle Eyvindson References:

Editor's Notes

  1. One scenario represents one deterministic version of the possible future. Inventory, growth errors and climate change errors can be incorporated into the scenario development.
  2. Here I’ll describe the difference between the result and the scenarios.
  3. Here I’ll describe what is going on with the solutions. A much steadier flow of income over the periods – some negative deviations, yes, but a much flatter profile.