Meat & Livestock Australia - Midyear Sheepmeat Projections_130809

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Meat & Livestock Australia bring you their mid-year update on the sheep and lamb industry. Topics covered are price trends, supply issues and demand issues.

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  • National flock – 1990 to 2008 fell 55% Breeding ewes fell 42% Sheep turnoff fell 22% Lamb slaughter increased 22%
  • Meat & Livestock Australia - Midyear Sheepmeat Projections_130809

    1. 1. Australian sheep and lamb industry projections 2009 January 2008 Kara Jones 2009 sheep and lamb industry mid-year update 13 th August 2009 Kara Jones – Sheepmeat Analyst, International Markets and Economic Services
    2. 2. Sheepmeat projections outline <ul><li>Price trends </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Producer incomes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Supply issues </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Drought </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Enterprise shifts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Flock fall </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Demand issues </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Global recession </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Australian economic slowdown </li></ul></ul>
    3. 3. The Australian sheepmeat industry in 2009… <ul><li>Australian flock to have declined a further 7% at June 2009, to 72 million head </li></ul><ul><li>Smaller flock to limit mutton and live export supply </li></ul><ul><li>Lamb production to rebound 4% </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Higher lamb slaughter due to better season, high prices, shift to prime lambs and higher Merino lamb slaughter </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lower feed costs and improved season to lift average carcase weights </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Domestic lamb consumption to increase 2% </li></ul><ul><li>Lamb export volumes to rise 5.6% </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Low A$, reduced NZ competition </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Saleyard prices to remain strong </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lamb prices to ease from winter highs, but remain strong </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sheep prices to remain high and move higher into 2010 </li></ul></ul>
    4. 4. Average saleyard trade lamb prices
    5. 5. Australian saleyard sheep prices
    6. 6. Prices paid by farmers for key inputs
    7. 7. Australian slaughter lamb farm income
    8. 8. Australian rainfall August 2008 - July 2009
    9. 9. Australian rainfall May - July 2009
    10. 10. Revised ABS flock figures at June 2008
    11. 11. National and breeding ewe flock decline Breeding ewes Δ 2007 to 2008: ↓ 1.9%
    12. 12. Australian sheep flock
    13. 13. Australian sheep turn-off
    14. 14. Sheep slaughter and mutton production
    15. 15. Quarterly lamb slaughter and prices
    16. 16. Lamb slaughter
    17. 17. Lamb production and carcase weight
    18. 18. Domestic lamb consumption and retail prices
    19. 19. A$/US$ exchange rate
    20. 20. NZ lamb exports
    21. 21. Australian vs NZ lamb exports January – June 2009 compared to January – June 2008
    22. 22. Australian lamb exports as a % of production
    23. 23. Lamb export forecasts and GDP growth
    24. 24. Lamb exports to the US
    25. 25. Lamb exports to Japan
    26. 26. Lamb exports to the Middle East
    27. 27. Mutton exports by regional destination
    28. 28. Live sheep exports
    29. 29. Sheepmeat industry overview <ul><li>“ The Australian sheepmeat industry thus far in 2009 has seen strong export and domestic demand and sales, resilient supply and record high saleyard prices. This is an impressive outcome considering the global financial crisis and economic slowdown and volatile trade conditions. However, this performance has been marred by the continued rapid liquidation of the national flock over the period and the consequent inability of Australia to meet the growing export demand for both mutton and live sheep exports. ”. </li></ul><ul><li>Through to 2013: </li></ul><ul><li>Sheep turnoff to decline and prevent further major flock falls </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on prime lamb production to boost average carcase weights and lift production </li></ul><ul><li>Continued high lamb, mutton and live sheep prices </li></ul><ul><li>Lamb exports to reach 179,000 tonnes in 2013 – up 18% on 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Strong Middle East demand to keep pressure on Australian mutton and live sheep supplies </li></ul>
    30. 30. Questions?

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