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Big data & human knowledge:sxsw


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One of the key features in the fast moving, post-recession market place is that it places marketing decision makers in uncharted territory. Conditions unimagined before the fragmentation of media, the socially networked consumer, and a world in financial crisis have become difficult to forecast. As marketing professionals struggle to navigate this perilous environment, they must execute decisions that will either make or break their companies and, more importantly, their careers. Those with access to big data are finding post-recession data isn’t as predictive as it once was. Those with little access to data worry that the collective experience of the company may not be precise enough to identify the optimal path to take. Everyone’s struggling for ways to make smarter decisions with some range of predictability.

The Martin Agency uses a proprietary consultative and modeling approach that provides marketers with decision support that effectively integrates human expertise with hard data for highly predictive outcomes. Recent mathematical and statistical advances make choosing Big Data over Human Experience, and vice versa, a false choice and illustrate how robust analytics can be married with collective wisdom for a more robust, more predictive means of making better choices that fuel smarter decisions.

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Big data & human knowledge:sxsw

  1. 1. SXSW 2013: Big Data & Human Experience Think love match not shotgun wedding Submitted for SXSW 2013 Dr. Lauren Tucker Director of Consumer Forensics The Martin Agency Chris Dickey Director of Analytics The Martin Agency 1
  2. 2. Core Business Challenge:Making smart decisions in an uncertain worldInformation explosion Great OpportunitiesEconomic implosion Great RisksMarket globalization 2
  3. 3. Big Data, especially post recession, can have gaps that limit it’s predictive power. Big DataStrength Pattern recognitionWeakness Limited by data
  4. 4. Human Experience can be an important additive to Big Data, which can smooth out the biases of human instinct. Statistical Analysis Human ExperienceStrength Pattern recognition Logical reasoningWeakness Limited by Limited by data instinctual biases
  5. 5. Advances in technology and mathematics allow for a numerical valueto be assigned to human experience so it can be integrated with data to deliver smarter decisions Better Choices from Hard Data + Human Experience = Scenario Simulation Historical Data Real world expertise Range of Predictive Outcomes Alone: Alone: Together: Past isn’t always Experience isn’t Precise, predictive predictive always precise decision support
  6. 6. This approach overcomes common modeling issues, allows for transparency, collaboration and immediacy. Data  vs.   Lots  of  Data Lots  of  Knowledge Knowledge (Tight  fit,  Lots  of  data) (Lots  of  experience,  strong  basis) Li@le  Knowledge  (Li@le  experience,  weak   basis) Li@le  Data(Erroneous  fit,  li@le  data) 6
  7. 7. Models that integrate data and knowledge are constantly optimized to achieve a balance of both.Illustra(ve 75th  percenGle • Experience 25th  percenGle • MarkeGng  research • Database  a@ribuGon • Sales  over  Gme • MarkeGng  acGvity  over  Gme • CorrelaGons  between  data  sales   and  markeGng  acGvity 25% 75% 7
  8. 8. This approach produces a learning model that is continually updated with new inputs. Historical data: Investment guidance Sales demand Optimal investment according to forecast targets, fixed budget constraints and Sales force activity profit maximization Marketing activity Analysis Optimized tactical allocation across Financials sales and marketing channels Simulation Optimization Management information: Scenario results Sales and marketing budgetPast marketing allocation decisions Revenue forecasts short & long term Risk assessments
  9. 9. The advantage for marketers over traditional modeling approaches used for decision support. Table Stakes …And Beyond Scenario Planning: Account for Impact of Past Decisions: The development of optimal media Assigns values to subjective experience, plans with projected outcomes events and changes in market. Budget Planning: Adaptive Testing: Optimizes investments to Employs an iterative process and business targets constantly optimizes by updating priors to improve models. Basic Analysis: Strategic Investment Planning:ROI for all communications channels and Long and short term ROI for each individual channel
  10. 10. For more information: Dr. Lauren Tucker Director of Consumer Forensics The Martin Chris Dickey Director of Analytics The Martin