A foresight analysis of the potential humanitarian impacts upon the UK, arising from the Ukraine conflict.

1. Ukraine:
Humanitarian
implications for UK

2. Overview
This deck synthesises, updates and iterates our existing scenario analyses around the
conflict in Ukraine:
- A deep-dive on people seeking protection in the UK
- Broader humanitarian impacts and potential consequences for the UK
(See Partnership Roundup dated 15 March).
Here, we present the key events and phenomena that could impact the UK that VCS
organisations should consider in their planning and responses. Although the time
horizon for some phenomena may be further into the future, the time horizon for
action may be now.

3. Drivers of change
Predetermined potential impacts
Medium-to-high impact phenomena that are better understood
Critical uncertainties
Highly uncertain high-impact phenomena
> Potential destitution for Ukrainian refugees
after official support ends
> Nuclear attacks/radiation
> Cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure
> Trafficking into/within UK
> Public goodwill towards Ukrainian and other
refugees
> Hate crimes
> Escalation in the conflict
> Further cost of living increases  increased
poverty
> Health needs of refugees in an already-
pressured health system
> Social worker shortage
> Potential delays to Afghan resettlement
> Nationality and Borders Bill
> Refugees entering through ‘irregular’ routes
> Mental health, trauma

4. Ripple effects and blind spots
Ripple effects
Potential high-impact humanitarian impacts further into the future
Blind spots
What else do we know we don’t know?
> Future refugee crises after global food shortages
and subsequent conflicts (esp. in Middle East
and Africa)
> Climate change consequences of short-term
decisions around energy supply
> Possible government subsidies of energy bills
> Possible conscription if NATO becomes involved
> Risk of recession following energy price shocks
> Increased social and material inequalities
> What are we missing?

5. What’s next: Turning this analysis into action
(1) Conduct a SWOT within your organisation
- Gather diverse minds together to explore opportunities, threats, enablers
of effective change, and change-blockers
- Map these against your organisational strengths and weaknesses
- Share your insights with other Partners so we can learn and plan together
(2) Build scenarios for your organisation
- Use these drivers of change to understand how they might affect your
organisation – for example, what if levels of destitution among refugees
increase while at the same time health/social care availability becomes more
constrained?

6. What’s next: BRC scenario planning beyond Ukraine
We are refining our scenario analysis approach to guide BRC’s own strategic
planning for 2023-25, with the first outputs due in May-June.
Much will be relevant to VCSEP partners. We will share as much of the
exploratory scenarios with you as we can.
What are we missing?
Scenario planning works best when diverse voices participate in their creation.
We would love to facilitate this kind of collaboration across the Partnership –
contact Clare Darlow if you would like to be a part of it.