A talk I gave to the Operational Research Society's Third-Sector Special Interest Group.

1. Harnessing
insights for
humanitarian aid

2. Everyone gets the help they need in a crisis

3. Disasters & Emergencies
People are safe and able to survive
and recover whenever disaster strikes
- Emergency response
- Community education
- Resilience-building

4. Health inequalities
People in the UK receive the care and
support they need without falling
through gaps in the health system
- Assisted discharge
- “High-intensity” use of unplanned
care
- Signposting
- Digital inclusion
- “Waiting well”

5. Displacement & Migration
People experiencing displacement feel
safe, live with dignity and have choice
and opportunity on their journey
- Find missing loved ones
- Help leaving unsafe situations
- Help accessing support
- Cash assistance
- Psychosocial support

6. A team of researchers and analysts using qualitative and quantitative
methods to produce actionable insights about the systems and contexts in
which we work, as well as monitoring emerging needs and anticipating
future crises.
Who are we?
> Resilience Index
> Data science
> Horizon scanning
> Scenario planning
> SWOT and PESTLE analysis
> Early action briefings
> Thematic insight packs
> Designing research
> Reviews and summaries of evidence
What do we do?

7. Pandemic

8. Mapping vulnerability to Covid-19
A UK-wide, neighbourhood-level composite index:
- Clinical vulnerability
- Socioeconomic vulnerability
- Wider health and wellbeing
Also used by:
- Scottish Public Health Observatory
- Local Authorities
- Community Foundations
- Arts Council England
- … and others

9. Targeting our Hardship Fund
Short-term financial support for certain at-risk groups:
> People with No Recourse to Public Funds
> People aged 70 or older
> People who have had disruption or delay to statutory support
> Household who have lost their primary earner to coronavirus
> Survivors of gender-based violence, including domestic abuse
> People facing homelessness or living in temporary accommodation
£5m
to 13,000
people
Combining data analysis with local intelligence
East Anglia  coastal and seasonal needs, loss of income
Midlands  refugees at risk of destitution
~12%
of eligible
people

10. Leaflet drops for digitally excluded older people in Essex

11. Supporting flu vaccines in Trafford
and identifying sites for mobile Covid-19 testing

12. Shetland Islands
Mapping Covid-19 vaccine hesitancy
Targeting places with low vaccination coverage
• Likely vaccine hesitancy (unwillingness) in Local
Authorities
• Vaccine hesitancy was modelled using five indicators, found
consistently across studies:
Gender Ethnicity Income Education Flu vaccination

13. Anticipating Omicron (and other emerging variants)

14. Storms &
floods

15. Vulnerability profiles for emergencies

16. Changes to population age and health
were the biggest drivers behind change
in vulnerability to flooding
North East and North West had the
highest proportion of neighbourhoods
becoming more vulnerable.

17. Ukraine

19. donate.redcross.org.uk

20. What’s
next?

21. Cohorts analyses for our three causes
Emergency planning tool
Capacity planning (with Pro Bono OR volunteer)
Resilience Index
> Disasters & emergencies
> Health inequalities
Scenario planning / horizon scanning
> Ukraine
> Strategy for 2023-25
Embed insight products in decision-support tools

22. Strategic Insight & Foresight team
> Elle Gordon
> Freya Neason
> Mike Page
None of this would have been possible without…
Experts volunteering their time and brainpower
> Stefan Noble (Oxford Consultants for Social Inclusion)
> Obi Thompson Sargoni (Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, UCL)
> Brian Johnston (Queens University Belfast)
> Elise Paul (University College London)
> Tom Russell (University of Oxford)
Say hello:
MattThomas@redcross.org.uk
@matthewgthomas
> Clare Darlow
> Aileen McDonald
> Gena Burgess