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Covid19予測
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Masashi Oikawa
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COVID19の累計感染者数の予測をしてみたよ。
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Covid19予測
1.
COVID19予測 予測実施日:2020年3月29日
2.
Excel ソルバーで予測してみた 注意事項
勝手予測なので、責任は持てません。 この予測、データが動くとどんどん変化します。なので、この予測をした時点 での予測である。ということしか言えません。 成長曲線 ゴンペルツ曲線 元データ 以下サイトにある total_cases.csv をエクセルに接続 https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data https://covid.ourworldindata.org/data/ecdc/total_cases.csv
3.
予測結果(日本の累計感染者数) 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 8/23/2019 12/1/2019 3/10/2020
6/18/2020 9/26/2020 1/4/2021 4/14/2021 7/23/2021 10/31/2021 2/8/2022 5/19/2022 累計感染者数(日本)/人 現状のデータだと9月後半には収束に 向かっている可能性が高い。
4.
予測結果(世界の累計感染者数) 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000 3500000 4000000 4500000 8/23/2019 12/1/2019 3/10/2020
6/18/2020 9/26/2020 1/4/2021 4/14/2021 7/23/2021 10/31/2021 2/8/2022 5/19/2022 類型感染者数(世界)/人 世界の動向をみると、来年初めに収 束に向かっているような予測結果。 これまでは海外との人の移動は避け たい。
5.
EOF
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