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Northern Territory Population Summit Mark McCrindle

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Australia is growing as is the population of the Northern Territory, but the growth in the Northern Territory is cyclical, with patterns associated with employment, the economic cycle, and strongly linked to variable interstate population increases and decreases. Annual population growth rates in the Northern Territory are highly volatile, and since 1990 have ranged from population contraction to a growth rate three times the national growth rate. These volatile population growth patterns are influenced by the NT’s small population base and the cyclical nature of mining, construction and infrastructure development.

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Northern Territory Population Summit Mark McCrindle

  1. 1. POPULATION TRENDS IN THE NORTHERN TERRITORY A SNAPSHOT OF THE NT DEMOGRAPHICS IN THE NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE. Mark McCrindle Northern Territory Population Summit Tuesday 2 August 2016
  2. 2. 21.5m AUSTRALIA IN 2011
  3. 3. 24.1m AUSTRALIA TODAY
  4. 4. 24.1m 12% AUSTRALIA TODAY
  5. 5. NORTHERN TERRITORY
  6. 6. NORTHERN TERRITORY IN 2011 Population 2011 211,945
  7. 7. NORTHERN TERRITORY TODAY Population 2016 245,217
  8. 8. NORTHERN TERRITORY TODAY Population 2016 245,217 16%
  9. 9. NT POPULATION INCREASE FROM 2006 TO 2011 Population 2006 192,898
  10. 10. NT POPULATION INCREASE FROM 2006 TO 2011 Population 2006 192,898 Population 2011 211,945
  11. 11. NT POPULATION INCREASE FROM 2006 TO 2011 Population 2006 192,898 Population 2011 211,94510%
  12. 12. 27m AUSTRALIA IN 2025
  13. 13. 27m NT Population 2025 287,923 AUSTRALIA IN 2025
  14. 14. 27m NT Population 2025 287,923 42,703 AUSTRALIA IN 2025
  15. 15. NORTHERN TERRITORY -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% Year endedJune NorthernTerritory Australia
  16. 16. Natural Increase Net Overseas Migration Net Interstate Migration TAS SA NSW ACT NT WA QLD VIC POPULATION INCREASE: ALL STATES
  17. 17. Natural Increase Net Overseas Migration Net Interstate Migration TAS SA NSW ACT NT WA QLD VIC POPULATION INCREASE: ALL STATES
  18. 18. Natural Increase Net Overseas Migration Net Interstate Migration TAS SA NSW ACT NT WA QLD VIC POPULATION INCREASE: ALL STATES
  19. 19. Natural Increase Net Overseas Migration Net Interstate Migration TAS SA NSW ACT NT WA QLD VIC POPULATION INCREASE: ALL STATES
  20. 20. MIGRATION Natural Increase 2833 Net Overseas Migration 739 Interstate Migration 2732
  21. 21. % OF STATE POPULATION LIVING IN CAPITAL
  22. 22. % OF STATE POPULATION LIVING IN CAPITAL 77% Perth
  23. 23. % OF STATE POPULATION LIVING IN CAPITAL 76% Melbourne 77% Perth
  24. 24. % OF STATE POPULATION LIVING IN CAPITAL 65% 76% Sydney Melbourne 77% Perth
  25. 25. % OF STATE POPULATION LIVING IN CAPITAL Darwin 65% 76% Sydney Melbourne 77%57% Perth
  26. 26. % OF STATE POPULATION LIVING IN CAPITAL Darwin 48% 65% 76% Sydney Melbourne 77%57% PerthBrisbane
  27. 27. 3/4 1/4 AUSTRALIA
  28. 28. 2/3 1/3 NORTHERN TERRITORY
  29. 29. 5 Years average tenure
  30. 30. 5 Years average tenure 2 in 3 unlikely to move back
  31. 31. MEDIAN AGE Australia 37
  32. 32. MEDIAN AGE Australia 37 Darwin 33
  33. 33. MEDIAN AGE Australia 37 Darwin 33 NT 31
  34. 34. FULL TIME EMPLOYMENT Australia 59.7%
  35. 35. FULL TIME EMPLOYMENT NT 66.9% Australia 59.7%
  36. 36. FULL TIME EMPLOYMENT Darwin 69.4% NT 66.9% Australia 59.7%
  37. 37. WHERE ARE THE JOBS? UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SA 6.9% TAS 6.5% QLD 6.4% VIC 5.8% WA 5.7% NSW 5.2% NT 4.1% ACT 3.8% Unemployment rate by state
  38. 38. MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE Sydney $996,140 Melbourne $803,290 Canberra $642,970 Perth $584,110 Brisbane $539,770 Darwin $499,800 Adelaide $467,000 Hobart $356,860
  39. 39. COST OF LIVING AFTER HOUSING NT $1,755 WA $1,755 ACT $1,649 QLD $1,245 TAS $1,034 SA $1,033 VIC $844 NSW $764 Average income after housing costs
  40. 40. 02 8824 3422 www.mccrindle.com.au mark@mccrindle.com.au Mark McCrindle

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