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新興技術
成熟度曲線
Hype Cycle
1
2
Gartner 新興技術
成熟度曲線
3
新興技術
• 特性
• 不易評估
• 破壞性創新
• 企業風險
• 觀注方向
• 期望
• 成熟時機
4
Gartner 新興技術成熟度曲線
VR
AR
Machine Learning
Block Chain
5
發展- 五個階段
• 「創新誕生的促動期」
(Inovation Trigger)
• 「過高期望的膨脹期」
(Peak of Inflated
Expectations)
• 「泡沫化的谷底期」
(Trough of
Disillusionment)
• 「穩定爬升的光明期」
(Slope of Enlightenment)
• 「實質生產的高峰期」
(Plateau of Productivity)
6
2014
• Speech Recognition
• 實質生產的高峰期
• 小於2年
• Big Data
• 泡沫化的底谷期
• 5-10年
• Autonomous Vehicles
• 過高期望的膨脹期
• 5-10年
7
2016
8
2016 新興技術趨勢
• 透通沉浸式體驗 Transparently immersive experiences
• 腦機介面(Brain-Computer Interface)、擴增實境(Augmented
Reality)、虛擬實境以及手勢控制裝置(Gesture Control Devices)
• 感知型智慧機器時代 The perceptual smart machine age
• 機器學習、商用無人飛行載具(Commercial UAVs – Drones)、自
動汽車(Autonomous Vehicles)、自然語言問答系統
• 平台革命 The platform revolution
• 量子運算(Quantum Computing)、區塊鏈(Blockchain)
9
結論
• 企業風險
• 組織應用
• 個人
• 學習投資
• 個人應用成本
• 盱衡全局
10
謝謝聆聽
11
參考資料
12
參考文獻
• Gartner Hype Cycle
http://www.gartner.com/technology/research/methodol
ogies/hype-cycle.jsp
• Gartner 2016 年新興技術發展周期報告
https://technews.tw/2016/08/16/gartner-report-3-
trends/
• 技術成熟度曲線 Wiki
https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%
AF%E6%88%90%E7%86%9F%E5%BA%A6%E6%9B
%B2%E7%BA%BF
13
參考文獻
• 微軟大吃一驚 量子電腦為何爆紅?
http://www.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=508
1559
14

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新興技術 成熟度曲線 Gartner Hype Cycle