2. Task
Read the following article. The author proposes that the Italian brain drain has been
caused by Italy’s non-transparent recruitment system. Obviously, “Brain drain” and
“a non-transparent recruitment system” are collective phenomena. Develop an
explanation of this relationship based on assumptions about individual behavior. You
can use arguments of the author and/or include own assumptions:
!
(a) Draw a “Coleman-boat” of your theory
!
(b1) Make explicit all (i) bridge assumptions, (ii) the theory of action and (iii)
transformation assumptions of your theory. Justify these assumptions, using general
theories or plausibility arguments.
!
(b2) Make sure that your arguments are valid.
!
(c) Describe at least one ceteris paribus problem with this explanation and explain
why this is a ceteris paribus problem
3. (a) Draw a Coleman-boat
macrolevelindiv.level
Level of transparency in
the recruitment system
Brain drain
perception of chances for
employment in Italy for
educated citizens
choice of
searching for a job
outside of Italy
4. (a) Draw a Coleman-boat
macrolevelindiv.level
Level of transparency in
the recruitment system
Brain drain
perception of chances for
employment in Italy for
educated citizens
choice of
searching for a job
outside of Italy
5. (a) Draw a Coleman-boat
macrolevelindiv.level
Level of transparency in
the recruitment system
Brain drain
perception of chances for
employment in Italy for
educated citizens
choice of
searching for a job
outside of Italy
6. (a) Draw a Coleman-boat
macrolevelindiv.level
Level of transparency in
the recruitment system
Brain drain
perception of chances for
employment in Italy for
educated citizens
choice of
searching for a job
outside of Italy
7. (a) Draw a Coleman-boat
macrolevelindiv.level
Level of transparency in
the recruitment system
Brain drain
perception of chances for
employment in Italy for
educated citizens
choice of
searching for a job
outside of Italy
8. (b1) Make explicit your assumptions
Level of transparency in
the recruitment system Brain drain
perception of chances for
employment in Italy for
educated citizens
choice of
searching for a job
outside of Italy
Bridge Assumption
T. of Action - RCT
Transf.Assumption
9. Level of transparency
in the recruitment
system
perception of chances for
employment in Italy for
educated citizens
Bridge Assumption (Macro-Micro)
10. Bridge Assumption: If the recruitment system is non-transparent, educated
citizens will perceive low chances to be employed
Level of transparency
in the recruitment
system
perception of chances for
employment in Italy for
educated citizens
Bridge Assumption (Macro-Micro)
11. Bridge Assumption: If the recruitment system is non-transparent, educated
citizens will perceive low chances to be employed
The lower the level of transparency in the recruitment system (T), the less likely
professional success depends on talent (P)
The less likely professional success depends on talent (P), the lower educated citizens will
perceive their chances for employment (C)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The lower the level of transparency in the recruitment system (T), the lower educated
citizens will perceive their chances for employment (C)
Level of transparency
in the recruitment
system
perception of chances for
employment in Italy for
educated citizens
Bridge Assumption (Macro-Micro)
12. Bridge Assumption: If the recruitment system is non-transparent, educated
citizens will perceive low chances to be employed
The lower the level of transparency in the recruitment system (T), the less likely
professional success depends on talent (P)
The less likely professional success depends on talent (P), the lower educated citizens will
perceive their chances for employment (C)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The lower the level of transparency in the recruitment system (T), the lower educated
citizens will perceive their chances for employment (C)
Level of transparency
in the recruitment
system
perception of chances for
employment in Italy for
educated citizens
Bridge Assumption (Macro-Micro)
13. Bridge Assumption: If the recruitment system is non-transparent, educated
citizens will perceive low chances to be employed
The lower the level of transparency in the recruitment system (T), the less likely
professional success depends on talent (P)
The less likely professional success depends on talent (P), the lower educated citizens will
perceive their chances for employment (C)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The lower the level of transparency in the recruitment system (T), the lower educated
citizens will perceive their chances for employment (C)
Level of transparency
in the recruitment
system
perception of chances for
employment in Italy for
educated citizens
Bridge Assumption (Macro-Micro)
14. All T* is P
All P* is C
------------
All T is C*
Bridge Assumption: If the recruitment system is non-transparent, educated
citizens will perceive low chances to be employed
Bridge Assumption (Macro-Micro)
Level of transparency
in the recruitment
system
perception of chances for
employment in Italy for
educated citizens
15. All T* is P
All P* is C
------------
All T is C*
Bridge Assumption: If the recruitment system is non-transparent, educated
citizens will perceive low chances to be employed
Bridge Assumption (Macro-Micro)
Level of transparency
in the recruitment
system
perception of chances for
employment in Italy for
educated citizens
16. All T* is P
All P* is C
------------
All T is C*
Bridge Assumption: If the recruitment system is non-transparent, educated
citizens will perceive low chances to be employed
Bridge Assumption (Macro-Micro)
Level of transparency
in the recruitment
system
perception of chances for
employment in Italy for
educated citizens
17. All T* is P
All P* is C
------------
All T is C*
All statements are wffs
All capital letters are * once
There is one * on the right
Bridge Assumption: If the recruitment system is non-transparent, educated
citizens will perceive low chances to be employed
Bridge Assumption (Macro-Micro)
Level of transparency
in the recruitment
system
perception of chances for
employment in Italy for
educated citizens
18. perception of chances for
employment in Italy for
educated citizens
choice of
searching for a
job outside of
Italy
Theory of Action (Micro-Micro)
19. T. of Action: If educated citizens perceive that they have lower chances to be
employed in their country, it is more likely they will choose to search for a job outside
their country.
perception of chances for
employment in Italy for
educated citizens
choice of
searching for a
job outside of
Italy
Theory of Action (Micro-Micro)
20. The lower the level of transparency in the recruitment system (T), the lower educated citizens
will perceive their chances for employment (C)
The lower educated citizens will perceive their chances for employment (C), the more likely
educated citizens will search for a job outside of Italy (O)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The lower the level of transparency in the recruitment system (T), the more likely educated
citizens will search for a job outside of Italy (O)
T. of Action: If educated citizens perceive that they have lower chances to be
employed in their country, it is more likely they will choose to search for a job outside
their country.
perception of chances for
employment in Italy for
educated citizens
choice of
searching for a
job outside of
Italy
Theory of Action (Micro-Micro)
21. The lower the level of transparency in the recruitment system (T), the lower educated citizens
will perceive their chances for employment (C)
The lower educated citizens will perceive their chances for employment (C), the more likely
educated citizens will search for a job outside of Italy (O)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The lower the level of transparency in the recruitment system (T), the more likely educated
citizens will search for a job outside of Italy (O)
T. of Action: If educated citizens perceive that they have lower chances to be
employed in their country, it is more likely they will choose to search for a job outside
their country.
perception of chances for
employment in Italy for
educated citizens
choice of
searching for a
job outside of
Italy
Theory of Action (Micro-Micro)
22. The lower the level of transparency in the recruitment system (T), the lower educated citizens
will perceive their chances for employment (C)
The lower educated citizens will perceive their chances for employment (C), the more likely
educated citizens will search for a job outside of Italy (O)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The lower the level of transparency in the recruitment system (T), the more likely educated
citizens will search for a job outside of Italy (O)
T. of Action: If educated citizens perceive that they have lower chances to be
employed in their country, it is more likely they will choose to search for a job outside
their country.
perception of chances for
employment in Italy for
educated citizens
choice of
searching for a
job outside of
Italy
Theory of Action (Micro-Micro)
23. All T* is C
All C* is O
------------
All T is O*
All statements are wffs
All capital letters are * once
There is one * on the right
T. of Action: If educated citizens perceive that they have lower chances to be
employed in their country, it is more likely they will choose to search for a job outside
their country.
Theory of Action (Micro-Micro)
perception of chances for
employment in Italy for
educated citizens
choice of
searching for a
job outside of
Italy
24. choice of
searching for a
job outside of
Italy
Brain drain
Transformation Assumption (Micro-Macro)
25. Transf. Assumption: If more educated citizens search for a job outside their
country, it is more likely the level of Brain Drain in that country will be higher
choice of
searching for a
job outside of
Italy
Brain drain
Transformation Assumption (Micro-Macro)
26. Transf. Assumption: If more educated citizens search for a job outside their
country, it is more likely the level of Brain Drain in that country will be higher
The lower the level of transparency in the recruitment system (T), the more likely educated
citizens will search for a job outside of Italy (O)
The more likely educated citizens will search for a job outside of Italy (O), the higher the
Brain Drain in the country (B)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The lower the level of transparency in the recruitment system (T), the higher the Brain
Drain in the country (B)
choice of
searching for a
job outside of
Italy
Brain drain
Transformation Assumption (Micro-Macro)
27. Transf. Assumption: If more educated citizens search for a job outside their
country, it is more likely the level of Brain Drain in that country will be higher
The lower the level of transparency in the recruitment system (T), the more likely educated
citizens will search for a job outside of Italy (O)
The more likely educated citizens will search for a job outside of Italy (O), the higher the
Brain Drain in the country (B)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The lower the level of transparency in the recruitment system (T), the higher the Brain
Drain in the country (B)
choice of
searching for a
job outside of
Italy
Brain drain
Transformation Assumption (Micro-Macro)
28. Transf. Assumption: If more educated citizens search for a job outside their
country, it is more likely the level of Brain Drain in that country will be higher
The lower the level of transparency in the recruitment system (T), the more likely educated
citizens will search for a job outside of Italy (O)
The more likely educated citizens will search for a job outside of Italy (O), the higher the
Brain Drain in the country (B)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The lower the level of transparency in the recruitment system (T), the higher the Brain
Drain in the country (B)
choice of
searching for a
job outside of
Italy
Brain drain
Transformation Assumption (Micro-Macro)
29. All T* is O
All O* is B
------------
All T is B*
All statements are wffs
All capital letters are * once
There is one * on the right
choice of
searching for a
job outside of
Italy
Brain drain
Transformation Assumption (Micro-Macro)
Transf. Assumption: If more educated citizens search for a job outside their
country, it is more likely the level of Brain Drain in that country will be higher
30. (c) Ceteris Paribus
"all other things being equal or held constant."
A ceteris paribus assumption is often fundamental to the predictive purpose of
scientific inquiry.
!
It rules out factors which interfere with examining a specific causal relationship.
!
In experiments it controls for all of the independent variables other than the
one under study, so that the effect of a single independent variable on the
dependent variable can be isolated.
but… it is problematic sometimes to ignore/control certain
aspects of an explanation/argument
31. (c) Ceteris Paribus
Ceteris Paribus Problem: It does not take into account the possibility that some
educated citizens also have family influences to get a job inside Italy.
The lower the level of transparency in the recruitment system & the lower the family
influences people have to get a job in Italy (T), the more likely educated citizens will search
for a job outside of Italy (O)
The more likely educated citizens will search for a job outside of Italy (O), the higher the
Brain Drain in the country (B)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The lower the level of transparency in the recruitment system & the lower the family
influences people have to get a job in Italy (T), the higher the Brain Drain in the country (B)
By including additional assumptions and solving the ceteris paribus problem we might
end up specifying more than necessary, reducing how informative our explanation is
