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AppTheories_L6

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Manu Muñoz H
Manu Muñoz H

AppTheories_L6

Education
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Applying theories to practical problems Lecture 6 1
An example of a policy problem School segregation 2
Think for a moment:Are schools in the Netherlands ethnically segregated? How was your school?! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 3
Think for a moment:Are schools in the Netherlands ethnically segregated? How was your school?! ! What is your perception about segregation. Is it a problem?! ! ! ! ! ! 3
Think for a moment:Are schools in the Netherlands ethnically segregated? How was your school?! ! What is your perception about segregation. Is it a problem?! ! Is it a political problem? Should there be policies about it?! ! ! ! 3
Think for a moment:Are schools in the Netherlands ethnically segregated? How was your school?! ! What is your perception about segregation. Is it a problem?! ! Is it a political problem? Should there be policies about it?! ! Should the government be involved in addressing this issue?! ! 3
Think for a moment:Are schools in the Netherlands ethnically segregated? How was your school?! ! What is your perception about segregation. Is it a problem?! ! Is it a political problem? Should there be policies about it?! ! Should the government be involved in addressing this issue?! ! How do you think this could be done? 3
An example: http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2011/02/ school_segregation_no_longer_a.php 4
Aims of the lecture 5
In this lecture we will: Learn how to use the application of theories to inform policy advice. This means! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 6
In this lecture we will: Learn how to use the application of theories to inform policy advice. This means! ! Learn what are criteria for a good theoretical basis for developing policy advice! ! ! ! ! 6
In this lecture we will: Learn how to use the application of theories to inform policy advice. This means! ! Learn what are criteria for a good theoretical basis for developing policy advice! ! Learn what are the steps in coming from theory to advice! ! ! 6
In this lecture we will: Learn how to use the application of theories to inform policy advice. This means! ! Learn what are criteria for a good theoretical basis for developing policy advice! ! Learn what are the steps in coming from theory to advice! ! Learn what are problems of applying theories to real life problems (transversal in the lecture) 6
Part 1: Application of theories & policy advice 7
Let’s answer these questions How can theory help in developing good advice?! ! ! ! Which questions can you not answer with theory alone? 8
Let’s answer this questions How can theory help in developing good advice?! Explanation of social phenomena! ! ! Which questions can you not answer with theory alone?! ! ! ! 8
Let’s answer this questions How can theory help in developing good advice?! Explanation of social phenomena! Predictions of the expected effects of policy! ! Which questions can you not answer with theory alone?! ! ! ! 8
Let’s answer this questions How can theory help in developing good advice?! Explanation of social phenomena! Predictions of the expected effects of policy! ! Which questions can you not answer with theory alone?! Is there enough political support for a policy?! ! ! 8
Let’s answer this questions How can theory help in developing good advice?! Explanation of social phenomena! Predictions of the expected effects of policy! ! Which questions can you not answer with theory alone?! Is there enough political support for a policy?! Is the policy implemented appropriately?! ! 8
Let’s answer this questions How can theory help in developing good advice?! Explanation of social phenomena! Predictions of the expected effects of policy! ! Which questions can you not answer with theory alone?! Is there enough political support for a policy?! Is the policy implemented appropriately?! Is the goal of the policy clearly defined?! 8
Let’s answer this questions How can theory help in developing good advice?! Explanation of social phenomena! Predictions of the expected effects of policy! ! Which questions can you not answer with theory alone?! Is there enough political support for a policy?! Is the policy implemented appropriately?! Is the goal of the policy clearly defined?! Is the goal of the policy socially desirable? 8
Example 1: School segregation in the US 9
Example: School segregation in the US James S. Coleman! 1926-1995 In the 1960’s, James Coleman and other scholars were commissioned by the US Department of Education to write a report on educational equality in the US 10 ! Main findings:! ! ! ! ! !
Example: School segregation in the US James S. Coleman! 1926-1995 In the 1960’s, James Coleman and other scholars were commissioned by the US Department of Education to write a report on educational equality in the US 10 ! Main findings:! ! School funding has little impact on school achievement of students! ! ! !
Example: School segregation in the US James S. Coleman! 1926-1995 In the 1960’s, James Coleman and other scholars were commissioned by the US Department of Education to write a report on educational equality in the US 10 ! Main findings:! ! School funding has little impact on school achievement of students! Instead, background and socioeconomic status of students have strong effects! !
Example: School segregation in the US James S. Coleman! 1926-1995 In the 1960’s, James Coleman and other scholars were commissioned by the US Department of Education to write a report on educational equality in the US 10 ! Main findings:! ! School funding has little impact on school achievement of students! Instead, background and socioeconomic status of students have strong effects! Racial mixing increases school achievement of black students of lower status
Example: School segregation in the US The big question is then: How can we increase racial equality? 11
The context of the report: The theory:! ! ! The problem:! ! ! The advice:! 12
The context of the report: The theory: The study suggests that racial mixing increases school achievements of black students and, thus, increases racial equality! ! The problem:! ! ! The advice:! 12
The context of the report: The theory: The study suggests that racial mixing increases school achievements of black students and, thus, increases racial equality! ! The problem: There was a high degree of school segregation. Schools were either black or white and few mixed schools.! ! The advice:! 12
The context of the report: The theory: The study suggests that racial mixing increases school achievements of black students and, thus, increases racial equality! ! The problem: There was a high degree of school segregation. Schools were either black or white and few mixed schools.! ! The advice: To desegregate schools, busing was introduced. In this way, more black students went to schools in school districts which used to be predominantly white. 12
Example: School segregation in the US Now the question is: Is busing a solution? 13
Steps in the theoretical analysis of policy advice Why do we think a given policy has certain expected effect? 14
Steps in the theoretical analysis of policy advice Why do we think a given policy has certain expected effect?! Because we have a theory (law-like statement) that predicts that if given the policy is applied (condition), the expected effect will be obtained (prediction, or, explanandum).! ! Why do we have this theory and think it is a good theory?! 14
Steps in the theoretical analysis of policy advice Why do we think a given policy has certain expected effect?! Because we have a theory (law-like statement) that predicts that given the policy is applied (condition), the expected effect will be obtained (prediction, or, explanandum).! ! Why do we have this theory and think it is a good theory?! Because the theory can explain phenomena related to the policy problem we want to address (adequacy conditions)! Here: why is there school segregation (in the US in the 1960’s)?! Implicit theory: 14
Steps in the theoretical analysis of policy advice Why do we think a policy has an expected effect?! Because we have a theory (law-like statement) that predicts that given the policy is applied (condition), the expected effect will be obtained (prediction, or, explanandum).! ! Why do we have this theory and think it is a good theory?! Because the theory can explain phenomena related to the policy problem we want to address (adequacy conditions)! Here: why is there school segregation (in the US in the 1960’s)?! Implicit theory: Because pupils attend school in their neighborhood and neighborhoods are segregated.! ! If this is the explanation, what would it imply for the policy? 14
Steps in the theoretical analysis of policy advice Why do we think a policy has an expected effect?! Because we have a theory (law-like statement) that predicts that given the policy is applied (condition), the expected effect will be obtained (prediction, or, explanandum).! ! Why do we have this theory and think it is a good theory?! Because the theory can explain phenomena related to the policy problem we want to address (adequacy conditions)! Here: why is there school segregation (in the US in the 1960’s)?! Implicit theory: Because pupils attend school in their neighborhood and neighborhoods are segregated.! ! If this is the explanation, what would it imply for the policy?! If we make pupils attend schools outside of their neighborhood with larger proportion of out-group, we increase interethnic contact at schools! Busing14
This is the argument somewhat simplified ! ! ------------------------------------------! Busing increases racial equality Try to build the syllogism that concludes with the advice above 15
This is the argument somewhat simplified Minority-majority contact increases racial equality! Busing increases minority-majority contact! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------! Busing increases racial equality Result of empirical research:! since advice was only for the US, empirical results concerning the US were treated as a law Assumption! following from our segregation theory Advice 16
Is the argument valid? An even more simplified version Is the argument valid? 17 If there is minority-majority contact (C) there is racial equality (E)! Schools in districts with busing (B) have minority-majority contact (C)! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------! In schools in districts with busing (B), there is racial equality (E)
Is the argument valid? An even more simplified version All C is E! All B is C! --------------! All B is E 18 If there is minority-majority contact (C) there is racial equality (E)! Schools in districts with busing (B) have minority-majority contact (C)! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------! In schools in districts with busing (B), there is racial equality (E)
Is the argument valid? An even more simplified version All C is E! All B is C! --------------! All B is E 18 If there is minority-majority contact (C) there is racial equality (E)! Schools in districts with busing (B) have minority-majority contact (C)! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------! In schools in districts with busing (B), there is racial equality (E)
Is the argument valid? An even more simplified version All C* is E! All B* is C! --------------! All B is E* 18 If there is minority-majority contact (C) there is racial equality (E)! Schools in districts with busing (B) have minority-majority contact (C)! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------! In schools in districts with busing (B), there is racial equality (E)
Is the argument valid? An even more simplified version All C* is E! All B* is C! --------------! All B is E* C B E 18 If there is minority-majority contact (C) there is racial equality (E)! Schools in districts with busing (B) have minority-majority contact (C)! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------! In schools in districts with busing (B), there is racial equality (E)
Is the argument valid? An even more simplified version All C* is E! All B* is C! --------------! All B is E* C B E 18 If there is minority-majority contact (C) there is racial equality (E)! Schools in districts with busing (B) have minority-majority contact (C)! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------! In schools in districts with busing (B), there is racial equality (E)
Is the argument valid? An even more simplified version All C* is E! All B* is C! --------------! All B is E* C B E 18 If there is minority-majority contact (C) there is racial equality (E)! Schools in districts with busing (B) have minority-majority contact (C)! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------! In schools in districts with busing (B), there is racial equality (E)
Did segregation policies worked out? (1) Districts without segregation policies ! (2) Districts where fewer than 50% of students were affected! (3) Districts where more than 50% of students were affected! (4) Overall Data from Logan et al. 2008 1 2 3 4 19
Did segregation policies worked out? 1 2 3 4 There is school desegregation also when there is no intervention! Trend appears to be equally strong for regions with many students who were affected by the intervention! Hence, it is questionable whether desegregation policies had an effect 20
What might have gone wrong? Busing was used in mixed school districts where the school composition did not match the racial composition of the district! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 21
What might have gone wrong? Busing was used in mixed school districts where the school composition did not match the racial composition of the district! ! Coleman (1975) himself argued that in large cities desegregation may motivate whites to move to white school districts where there are no desegregation programs (because school composition matches composition of district)! ! ! ! 21
What might have gone wrong? Busing was used in mixed school districts where the school composition did not match the racial composition of the district! ! Coleman (1975) himself argued that in large cities desegregation may motivate whites to move to white school districts where there are no desegregation programs (because school composition matches composition of district)! ! This tendency is called white flight! ! 21
What might have gone wrong? Busing was used in mixed school districts where the school composition did not match the racial composition of the district! ! Coleman (1975) himself argued that in large cities desegregation may motivate whites to move to white school districts where there are no desegregation programs (because school composition matches composition of district)! ! This tendency is called white flight! ! Results from Coleman’s study: 21
What might have gone wrong? Results from Coleman’s study: 22
What might have gone wrong? Note that the white-flight argument is debated. However, a recent overview concluded that the preponderance of evidence now suggests that school desegregation is a push factor for whites (Logan et al. 2008).! ! ! ! ! 23
What might have gone wrong? Note that the white-flight argument is debated. However, a recent overview concluded that the preponderance of evidence now suggests that school desegregation is a push factor for whites (Logan et al. 2008).! ! White flight suggests a decrease in school segregation within school districts but simultaneously an increase in segregation between districts! ! 23
What might have gone wrong? Note that the white-flight argument is debated. However, a recent overview concluded that the preponderance of evidence now suggests that school desegregation is a push factor for whites (Logan et al. 2008).! ! White flight suggests a decrease in school segregation within school districts but simultaneously an increase in segregation between districts! ! This may have consequences for the effect of busing 23
This was the argument Minority-majority contact increases racial equality! Busing increases minority-majority contact! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------! Busing increases racial equality This may be problematic:! It may be true that busing leads to more contact. However, the argument has a hidden ceteris paribus assumption. 24
The problem with ceteris paribus assumptions The busing advice implicitly presumes that all other things remain equal! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 25
The problem with ceteris paribus assumptions The busing advice implicitly presumes that all other things remain equal! It is assumed that busing does not have any other consequences that might lead to less contact between the groups! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 25
The problem with ceteris paribus assumptions The busing advice implicitly presumes that all other things remain equal! It is assumed that busing does not have any other consequences that might lead to less contact between the groups! It also presumes that contact may not be influenced by other processes! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 25
The problem with ceteris paribus assumptions The busing advice implicitly presumes that all other things remain equal! It is assumed that busing does not have any other consequences that might lead to less contact between the groups! It also presumes that contact may not be influenced by other processes! ! Thus, it is possible that ! An advice is valid in the sense that all premises are true,! ! ! ! ! ! ! 25
The problem with ceteris paribus assumptions The busing advice implicitly presumes that all other things remain equal! It is assumed that busing does not have any other consequences that might lead to less contact between the groups! It also presumes that contact may not be influenced by other processes! ! Thus, it is possible that ! An advice is valid in the sense that all premises are true,! And, that they imply the expected effects of the policy! ! ! ! ! ! 25
The problem with ceteris paribus assumptions The busing advice implicitly presumes that all other things remain equal! It is assumed that busing does not have any other consequences that might lead to less contact between the groups! It also presumes that contact may not be influenced by other processes! ! Thus, it is possible that ! An advice is valid in the sense that all premises are true,! And, that they imply the expected effects of the policy! Nevertheless, the policy may not have the expected effects! ! ! ! ! 25
The problem with ceteris paribus assumptions The busing advice implicitly presumes that all other things remain equal! It is assumed that busing does not have any other consequences that might lead to less contact between the groups! It also presumes that contact may not be influenced by other processes! ! Thus, it is possible that ! An advice is valid in the sense that all premises are true,! And, that they imply the expected effects of the policy! Nevertheless, the policy may not have the expected effects! ! This happens when the implicit ceteris paribus assumption is wrong! ! ! 25
The problem with ceteris paribus assumptions The busing advice implicitly presumes that all other things remain equal! It is assumed that busing does not have any other consequences that might lead to less contact between the groups! It also presumes that contact may not be influenced by other processes! ! Thus, it is possible that ! An advice is valid in the sense that all premises are true,! And, that they imply the expected effects of the policy! Nevertheless, the policy may not have the expected effects! ! This happens when the implicit ceteris paribus assumption is wrong! ! Thus, when we develop an advice:! Consider whether the policy has unintended effects which might intervene 25
The problem with ceteris paribus assumptions Note that many explanations are based on ceteris paribus assumptions as well! ! ! ! 26
The problem with ceteris paribus assumptions Note that many explanations are based on ceteris paribus assumptions as well! ! However, when we test explanations! We can (at least) statistically control for effects of other variables! 26
The problem with ceteris paribus assumptions Note that many explanations are based on ceteris paribus assumptions as well! ! However, when we test explanations! We can (at least) statistically control for effects of other variables! Thus, this is not a serious problem for explanations. 26
Empirical support for white flight This measures to which degree school composition maps composition of districts This measures the degree to which districts of a metropolitan area have similar racial composition + Segregation decreased even without interventions + No changes without intervention! + but slightly stronger increase in segregation between districts with interventions
Example school segregation in the US: Summary The aim was to increase educational equality in the US by decreasing school segregation! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 28
Example school segregation in the US: Summary The aim was to increase educational equality in the US by decreasing school segregation! ! Busing was an adequate policy in the sense that there was a valid argument that predicted it would have the desired effects! ! ! ! ! ! ! 28
Example school segregation in the US: Summary The aim was to increase educational equality in the US by decreasing school segregation! ! Busing was an adequate policy in the sense that there was a valid argument that predicted it would have the desired effects! ! However, the underlying theory made implicit ceteris paribus assumptions. An additional process (white flights) led to increased segregation between school districts. This hampered the effects of busing.! ! ! 28
Example school segregation in the US: Summary The aim was to increase educational equality in the US by decreasing school segregation! ! Busing was an adequate policy in the sense that there was a valid argument that predicted it would have the desired effects! ! However, the underlying theory made implicit ceteris paribus assumptions. An additional process (white flights) led to increased segregation between school districts. This hampered the effects of busing.! ! What is more, some scholars argue that busing might have even triggered/ increased white flights 28
Example school segregation in the US: Summary Thus, when you develop policy advices, be aware of the fact that theories make implicit ceteris paribus assumptions! ! ! ! ! ! 29
Example school segregation in the US: Summary Thus, when you develop policy advices, be aware of the fact that theories make implicit ceteris paribus assumptions! ! Try to predict what might go wrong and how likely this might happen and consider this when you give an advice! ! ! 29
Example school segregation in the US: Summary Thus, when you develop policy advices, be aware of the fact that theories make implicit ceteris paribus assumptions! ! Try to predict what might go wrong and how likely this might happen and consider this when you give an advice! ! If there is a trade-off, then try to find an optimal strategy:! 29
Example school segregation in the US: Summary Thus, when you develop policy advices, be aware of the fact that theories make implicit ceteris paribus assumptions! ! Try to predict what might go wrong and how likely this might happen and consider this when you give an advice! ! If there is a trade-off, then try to find an optimal strategy:! 29 Busing only in smaller towns, where people hardly move
Coleman’s conclusion If a policy does not actively employ the interest of those on whom it has an impact, it will find those interests actively employed in directions that defeat its goals! ! ! ! 30
Coleman’s conclusion If a policy does not actively employ the interest of those on whom it has an impact, it will find those interests actively employed in directions that defeat its goals! ! In designing policy it is useful to take an individualistic perspective:! ! 30
Coleman’s conclusion If a policy does not actively employ the interest of those on whom it has an impact, it will find those interests actively employed in directions that defeat its goals! ! In designing policy it is useful to take an individualistic perspective:! start from the goals of the individuals and assume that they try to achieve their goals under the given policy (not the goals of the policy makers). 30
Part 2: Steps to come from theories to policy advice 31
Steps Step 1: Find related phenomena to explain Step 2: Develop a valid explanation Step 3: Policy implications 32
Example 2: School segregation in the Netherlands 33
Segregation between primary schools in NL 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 .00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 % minority surrounding neighborhood proportion minority at school Residential segregation and school segregation in 2001 Data from Statistics Netherlands and Ministry of Education (1391 primary schools in 31 biggest cities) 34
Segregation between primary schools in NL Half of all primary schools in the 4 biggest cities are black schools! >50% students with non- western cultural background! ! ! ! ! ! 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 .00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 % minority surrounding neighborhood proportion minority at school Residential segregation and school segregation in 2001 Data from Statistics Netherlands and Ministry of Education (1391 primary schools in 31 biggest cities) 34
Segregation between primary schools in NL Half of all primary schools in the 4 biggest cities are black schools! >50% students with non- western cultural background! Constitutionally guaranteed freedom of school choice! ! ! ! 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 .00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 % minority surrounding neighborhood proportion minority at school Residential segregation and school segregation in 2001 Data from Statistics Netherlands and Ministry of Education (1391 primary schools in 31 biggest cities) 34
Segregation between primary schools in NL Half of all primary schools in the 4 biggest cities are black schools! >50% students with non- western cultural background! Constitutionally guaranteed freedom of school choice! Strong residential segregation in big cities! ! 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 .00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 % minority surrounding neighborhood proportion minority at school Residential segregation and school segregation in 2001 Data from Statistics Netherlands and Ministry of Education (1391 primary schools in 31 biggest cities) 34
Segregation between primary schools in NL Half of all primary schools in the 4 biggest cities are black schools! >50% students with non- western cultural background! Constitutionally guaranteed freedom of school choice! Strong residential segregation in big cities! Policy in NL until recently: encourage mixing 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 .00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 % minority surrounding neighborhood proportion minority at school Residential segregation and school segregation in 2001 Data from Statistics Netherlands and Ministry of Education (1391 primary schools in 31 biggest cities) 34
How to find a suitable individualistic theory? Explanandum:! ! The larger the proportion of non-western immigrants in a neighborhood, the larger the proportion of non-western immigrant pupils at school in this neighborhood Step 1: Find related phenomena to explain 35
Main elements of an individualistic explanation(i.e., Coleman, Lindenberg) Independent! Macro-variable Dependent! Macro-variable Input individual choice:! Choice options! Information! Costs and benefits... Output: ! Individual choice Explanandum: ! Macro relationship Theory ! of action Bridge ! assumptions Transformation ! assumptions 36
How to find a suitable individualistic theory? First theory: distance minimization (1)! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Step 2: Develop a valid explanation 37
How to find a suitable individualistic theory? First theory: distance minimization (1)! ! Independent macro-variable:! % immigrants in the local area (neighborhood or city)! ! ! ! ! ! ! Step 2: Develop a valid explanation 37
How to find a suitable individualistic theory? First theory: distance minimization (1)! ! Independent macro-variable:! % immigrants in the local area (neighborhood or city)! Dependent macro-variable! % immigrants in the schools of the local area! ! ! ! ! Step 2: Develop a valid explanation 37
How to find a suitable individualistic theory? First theory: distance minimization (1)! ! Independent macro-variable:! % immigrants in the local area (neighborhood or city)! Dependent macro-variable! % immigrants in the schools of the local area! Mechanism! Individual parents select (boundedly) rationally from available schools! ! ! Step 2: Develop a valid explanation 37
How to find a suitable individualistic theory? First theory: distance minimization (1)! ! Independent macro-variable:! % immigrants in the local area (neighborhood or city)! Dependent macro-variable! % immigrants in the schools of the local area! Mechanism! Individual parents select (boundedly) rationally from available schools! Parents want to minimize distance to school! ! Step 2: Develop a valid explanation 37
How to find a suitable individualistic theory? First theory: distance minimization (1)! ! Independent macro-variable:! % immigrants in the local area (neighborhood or city)! Dependent macro-variable! % immigrants in the schools of the local area! Mechanism! Individual parents select (boundedly) rationally from available schools! Parents want to minimize distance to school! Parents are indifferent with regard to ethnic composition of school (This is an assumption which might be wrong) Step 2: Develop a valid explanation 37
How to find a suitable individualistic theory? Actually,! “... about 70% of the parents had not considered any schools outside their local area (postcode district)” p. 461, Karsten et al. 2003. School Choice and Ethnic Segregation. Educational Policy 17.! Based on representative survey of parents in NL (N=931) Step 2: Develop a valid explanation (continuation) 38
Elaboration of an individualistic explanation (graphically) School location % minority school % minority in ! proximity school Costs of choosing this school for parents Likelihood parents choose this school + + - Macro Micro Likelihood these parents are minority transformation 39
Reconstruction as valid individualistic explanation The shorter the distance to a school, the larger the expected utility from selecting this school for parents (law)! ! The higher the perceived utility of a course of action, the more likely an individual will choose this action (theory of action)! ! Parents choose between school-in-own-neighborhoods and school-in-another- neighborhood 40
Reconstruction as valid individualistic explanation The shorter the distance to a school, the larger the expected utility from selecting this school for parents (law)! ! The higher the perceived utility of a course of action, the more likely an individual will choose this action (theory of action)! ! Parents choose between school-in-own-neighborhoods and school-in-another- neighborhood The shorter the distance to a school, the more likely parents choose this school 40
Reconstruction as valid individualistic explanation (2) The shorter the distance to a school, the more likely parents choose this school (ceteris paribus)! ! In big cities in the Netherlands, around year 2000, the distance to a school in the own neighborhood is shorter than to schools in another neighborhood (Condition) 41
Reconstruction as valid individualistic explanation (2) The shorter the distance to a school, the more likely parents choose this school (ceteris paribus)! ! In big cities in the Netherlands, around year 2000, the distance to a school in the own neighborhood is shorter than to schools in another neighborhood (Condition) In big cities in the Netherlands, around year 2000, parents choose more likely schools within their own neighborhood than outside their own neighborhood. 41
Reconstruction as valid individualistic explanation (3) In big cities in the Netherlands, around year 2000, parents choose more likely schools within their own neighborhood than outside their own neighborhood.! ! The larger the proportion of minority members in the neighborhood, the more likely individual parents are minority members (bridge) 42
Reconstruction as valid individualistic explanation (3) In big cities in the Netherlands, around year 2000, the larger the proportion of minority members in a neighborhood, the more likely parents who choose for a school in that neighborhood are minority members. 42 In big cities in the Netherlands, around year 2000, parents choose more likely schools within their own neighborhood than outside their own neighborhood.! ! The larger the proportion of minority members in the neighborhood, the more likely individual parents are minority members (bridge)
Reconstruction as valid individualistic explanation (4) In big cities in the Netherlands, around year 2000, the larger the proportion of minority members in a neighborhood, the more likely parents who choose for a school in that neighborhood are minority members.! ! The more likely the parents who choose for a school are minority members, the larger the proportion of minority members at that school (Transformation) 43
Reconstruction as valid individualistic explanation (4) In big cities in the Netherlands, around year 2000, the larger the proportion of minority members in a neighborhood, the more likely parents who choose for a school in that neighborhood are minority members.! ! The more likely the parents who choose for a school are minority members, the larger the proportion of minority members at that school (Transformation) In big cities in the Netherlands, around year 2000, the larger the proportion of minority members in a neighborhood, the larger the proportion of minority members at that school This is the explanandum 43
How to find a suitable individualistic theory? The theory can explain the association between neighborhood composition and school composition.! ! What if the theory were correct? Which policies would then reduce school segregation? Step 3: Policy implications (Theory of distance minimization) 44
How to find a suitable individualistic theory? The theory can explain the association between neighborhood composition and school composition.! ! What if the theory were correct? Which policies would then reduce school segregation?! ! Residential desegregation policy (i.e., create mixed neighborhoods)! ! Choose locations of schools in between black and white neighborhoods. Step 3: Policy implications (Theory of distance minimization) 44
A valid simplified argument for residential desegregation policy Neighborhoods with residential desegregation policies are on average more heterogeneous than other neighborhoods (all D are H)! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 45
A valid simplified argument for residential desegregation policy Neighborhoods with residential desegregation policies are on average more heterogeneous than other neighborhoods (all D are H)! ! If a neighborhood is more heterogeneous, then schools in this neighborhood are also more heterogeneous (all H is Sh)! ! ! ! ! ! 45
A valid simplified argument for residential desegregation policy Neighborhoods with residential desegregation policies are on average more heterogeneous than other neighborhoods (all D are H)! ! If a neighborhood is more heterogeneous, then schools in this neighborhood are also more heterogeneous (all H is Sh)! ! Notice that this latter statement follows from our theory of distance minimization for NL around 2000! ! ! 45
A valid simplified argument for residential desegregation policy Neighborhoods with residential desegregation policies are on average more heterogeneous than other neighborhoods (all D are H)! ! If a neighborhood is more heterogeneous, then schools in this neighborhood are also more heterogeneous (all H is Sh)! ! Notice that this latter statement follows from our theory of distance minimization for NL around 2000! ! Thus: In neighborhoods to which residential desegregation policies are applied, schools are on average more heterogeneous than in other neighborhoods. 45
Would this work? Zoned access rule - the case ofTiel To realize the goal of desegregation, the school boards in Tiel formed and implemented their natural recruitment zones scheme. In each zone there is a Catholic, Protestant and a public school. So, according to the boards and the BCP, parents would have sufficient opportunities to choose a school in relation to their freedom of education. Children should go to a school in the zone they live in. This means that schools would not be allowed to admit children from other zones. Dorothee Peters, George Muskens, 2011. Ethnic School Segregation Exists: Possibilities for Counteracting Measures. The Open Education Journal. 4, 158-163.46
An extended theory: but why? Differences between school composition and neighborhood composition in NL (in 2002). Too black = % minority > 1.5* neighborhood! Too white = % minority < 0.5* neighborhood Number schools Percentage too black 694 50% representative 514 37% too white 183 13% Total 1391 100% How can we explain this with distance minimization?! Not with our version of the theory. So, let’s try something else.47
Would this work? Zoned access rule - the case ofTiel Of those native Dutch parents, 60.3% considered the non white schools on their locality to be completely unsuitable; fewer ethnic minority parents were of this opinion; but still 45.3% of them did think this. Considerably more than the number of ethnic minority parents who considered the representative and White schools to be completely unsuitable: about 25%. pg. 464, Karsten et al. 2003. School Choice and Ethnic Segregation. Educational Policy 17! Based on representative survey of parents in NL (N=931)48
The theory of white flight We keep this from the theory of distance minimization The smaller the distance to a school, the larger the expected utility from selecting this school for parents (ceteris paribus)! ! The higher the perceived utility of a course of action, the more likely an individual will choose this action (theory of action)! ! Parents choose between school-in-own-neighborhoods and school-in-another- neighborhood (Definition) The smaller the distance to a school, the more likely parents choose this school (ceteris paribus) 49
Our extension The smaller the distance to a school, the larger the expected utility from selecting this school for parents (ceteris paribus)! ! The larger the expected proportion of minority students, the lower is for native parents the expected utility of selecting the school (ceteris paribus)! ! This implies that native parents select more likely schools with larger distance from their own neighborhood if they live in a black neighborhood (what is the implicit assumption here?)! ! This implies that in neighborhoods with a large proportion of minority, schools are too black because native parents flee to other schools (outside the neighborhood) 50
Policy implications Zoned access rule Without zoned access rule, native parents in black neighborhoods choose schools outside their neighborhood, such that school becomes too black (all N that are without zoned access=za and that are black are also neighborhoods with too black schools=Bs)! ! With zoned access rule, all parents choose schools in their neighborhoods=Sn (All N that are za are Sn)! ! No neighborhood where parents choose schools within their neighborhood has too black schools (No Sn is Bs)! ! Thus:! if no za and black neighborhood, then Bs! if za then no Bs 51
How developing deeper explanations may help to develop better policies An explanation A is deeper than an explanation B, if A implies conditions under which the phenomenon explained by B is also predicted to occur by A and other conditions under A predict that the phenomenon should not occur! ! Deeper explanations can give more insight into the underlying process 52
Example: The larger the expected proportion of minority students, the lower is for native parents the expected utility of selecting this school (ceteris paribus)! ! Why should this be the case?! ! Many studies show:! ! Most parents are mainly concerned about the quality of the school! ! Many native parents think that black schools have poorer quality! ! This explains why many native parents do not want their children to attend a black school 53
In Amsterdam, two [native Dutch] parents started [an] initiative in 2002 by registering their children at a primary school in their neighborhood (at that moment a so called black school, situated in a mixed neighborhood) and proposed actions towards mixing the school population. The parents distributed leaflets on the initiative and together with the school they organized an informative meeting for parents in the neighborhood. The school arranged attractive changes of the school curriculum and invested in the physical appearance and the maintenance of the school building. At strategically chosen occasions, the school arranged publicity and presented itself as a school of interest. This is a process continuing until today. Three years after the start of the activities, the lowest grades showed a mixed population of pupils (50-50 percent). Nowadays, all grades show comparative percentages. Dorothee Peters, George Muskens, 2011. Ethnic School Segregation Exists: Possibilities for Counteracting Measures. The Open Education Journal. 4, 158-163. 54
Why does the parents’ initiative work? If parents believe that a school is a good school, they send their child to that school! This is a good school! This is a school in a black neighborhood! Without further information, most native parents think that schools in black neighborhoods are bad schools! Thus: most native parents believe this school is a bad school! Thus: most native parents do not send their child to this school! The parent initiative makes the native parents aware that the school is actually a good school! ! Thus: if there is a parent initiative AND a school in a black neighborhood is good THEN native parents send their child to this school. If there is not parent initiative they don’t. 55
Summary (1) What are criteria for a good theoretical basis for developing policy advice?! ! The most important criterion is that you have a valid reasoning. That is: you have an adequate explanation (according to the conditions of adequacy) of how the expected effects of the proposed policy logically follow from an explicitly formulated theory (law + condition). 56
Summary (2) Learn what are the steps in coming from theory to advice! ! Step 1: Find related phenomena to explain! ! Step 2: Develop valid explanations for these phenomena! ! Step 3: Derive from the theory that you use to explain the phenomena, why the proposed policy advice should have the proposed effects (valid reasoning) 57
Summary (3) Learn what are the problems of applying theories to real life problems! ! The most important problem is that you overlook implicit ceteris paribus assumptions in your reasoning, that turn out to not be true! ! One way to address this problem is that you try to develop deeper explanations that specify under what conditions certain premises apply and when they do not apply. 58
Tutorial - Assignment in Nestor ✤ Assignments will not be received after the beginning of the tutorial! ✤ In the tutorial we will solve the assignment together and answer questions about it 59

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AppTheories_L6

  • 1. Applying theories to practical problems Lecture 6 1
  • 2. An example of a policy problem School segregation 2
  • 3. Think for a moment:Are schools in the Netherlands ethnically segregated? How was your school?! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 3
  • 4. Think for a moment:Are schools in the Netherlands ethnically segregated? How was your school?! ! What is your perception about segregation. Is it a problem?! ! ! ! ! ! 3
  • 5. Think for a moment:Are schools in the Netherlands ethnically segregated? How was your school?! ! What is your perception about segregation. Is it a problem?! ! Is it a political problem? Should there be policies about it?! ! ! ! 3
  • 6. Think for a moment:Are schools in the Netherlands ethnically segregated? How was your school?! ! What is your perception about segregation. Is it a problem?! ! Is it a political problem? Should there be policies about it?! ! Should the government be involved in addressing this issue?! ! 3
  • 7. Think for a moment:Are schools in the Netherlands ethnically segregated? How was your school?! ! What is your perception about segregation. Is it a problem?! ! Is it a political problem? Should there be policies about it?! ! Should the government be involved in addressing this issue?! ! How do you think this could be done? 3
  • 9. Aims of the lecture 5
  • 10. In this lecture we will: Learn how to use the application of theories to inform policy advice. This means! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 6
  • 11. In this lecture we will: Learn how to use the application of theories to inform policy advice. This means! ! Learn what are criteria for a good theoretical basis for developing policy advice! ! ! ! ! 6
  • 12. In this lecture we will: Learn how to use the application of theories to inform policy advice. This means! ! Learn what are criteria for a good theoretical basis for developing policy advice! ! Learn what are the steps in coming from theory to advice! ! ! 6
  • 13. In this lecture we will: Learn how to use the application of theories to inform policy advice. This means! ! Learn what are criteria for a good theoretical basis for developing policy advice! ! Learn what are the steps in coming from theory to advice! ! Learn what are problems of applying theories to real life problems (transversal in the lecture) 6
  • 14. Part 1: Application of theories & policy advice 7
  • 15. Let’s answer these questions How can theory help in developing good advice?! ! ! ! Which questions can you not answer with theory alone? 8
  • 16. Let’s answer this questions How can theory help in developing good advice?! Explanation of social phenomena! ! ! Which questions can you not answer with theory alone?! ! ! ! 8
  • 17. Let’s answer this questions How can theory help in developing good advice?! Explanation of social phenomena! Predictions of the expected effects of policy! ! Which questions can you not answer with theory alone?! ! ! ! 8
  • 18. Let’s answer this questions How can theory help in developing good advice?! Explanation of social phenomena! Predictions of the expected effects of policy! ! Which questions can you not answer with theory alone?! Is there enough political support for a policy?! ! ! 8
  • 19. Let’s answer this questions How can theory help in developing good advice?! Explanation of social phenomena! Predictions of the expected effects of policy! ! Which questions can you not answer with theory alone?! Is there enough political support for a policy?! Is the policy implemented appropriately?! ! 8
  • 20. Let’s answer this questions How can theory help in developing good advice?! Explanation of social phenomena! Predictions of the expected effects of policy! ! Which questions can you not answer with theory alone?! Is there enough political support for a policy?! Is the policy implemented appropriately?! Is the goal of the policy clearly defined?! 8
  • 21. Let’s answer this questions How can theory help in developing good advice?! Explanation of social phenomena! Predictions of the expected effects of policy! ! Which questions can you not answer with theory alone?! Is there enough political support for a policy?! Is the policy implemented appropriately?! Is the goal of the policy clearly defined?! Is the goal of the policy socially desirable? 8
  • 23. Example: School segregation in the US James S. Coleman! 1926-1995 In the 1960’s, James Coleman and other scholars were commissioned by the US Department of Education to write a report on educational equality in the US 10 ! Main findings:! ! ! ! ! !
  • 24. Example: School segregation in the US James S. Coleman! 1926-1995 In the 1960’s, James Coleman and other scholars were commissioned by the US Department of Education to write a report on educational equality in the US 10 ! Main findings:! ! School funding has little impact on school achievement of students! ! ! !
  • 25. Example: School segregation in the US James S. Coleman! 1926-1995 In the 1960’s, James Coleman and other scholars were commissioned by the US Department of Education to write a report on educational equality in the US 10 ! Main findings:! ! School funding has little impact on school achievement of students! Instead, background and socioeconomic status of students have strong effects! !
  • 26. Example: School segregation in the US James S. Coleman! 1926-1995 In the 1960’s, James Coleman and other scholars were commissioned by the US Department of Education to write a report on educational equality in the US 10 ! Main findings:! ! School funding has little impact on school achievement of students! Instead, background and socioeconomic status of students have strong effects! Racial mixing increases school achievement of black students of lower status
  • 27. Example: School segregation in the US The big question is then: How can we increase racial equality? 11
  • 28. The context of the report: The theory:! ! ! The problem:! ! ! The advice:! 12
  • 29. The context of the report: The theory: The study suggests that racial mixing increases school achievements of black students and, thus, increases racial equality! ! The problem:! ! ! The advice:! 12
  • 30. The context of the report: The theory: The study suggests that racial mixing increases school achievements of black students and, thus, increases racial equality! ! The problem: There was a high degree of school segregation. Schools were either black or white and few mixed schools.! ! The advice:! 12
  • 31. The context of the report: The theory: The study suggests that racial mixing increases school achievements of black students and, thus, increases racial equality! ! The problem: There was a high degree of school segregation. Schools were either black or white and few mixed schools.! ! The advice: To desegregate schools, busing was introduced. In this way, more black students went to schools in school districts which used to be predominantly white. 12
  • 32. Example: School segregation in the US Now the question is: Is busing a solution? 13
  • 33. Steps in the theoretical analysis of policy advice Why do we think a given policy has certain expected effect? 14
  • 34. Steps in the theoretical analysis of policy advice Why do we think a given policy has certain expected effect?! Because we have a theory (law-like statement) that predicts that if given the policy is applied (condition), the expected effect will be obtained (prediction, or, explanandum).! ! Why do we have this theory and think it is a good theory?! 14
  • 35. Steps in the theoretical analysis of policy advice Why do we think a given policy has certain expected effect?! Because we have a theory (law-like statement) that predicts that given the policy is applied (condition), the expected effect will be obtained (prediction, or, explanandum).! ! Why do we have this theory and think it is a good theory?! Because the theory can explain phenomena related to the policy problem we want to address (adequacy conditions)! Here: why is there school segregation (in the US in the 1960’s)?! Implicit theory: 14
  • 36. Steps in the theoretical analysis of policy advice Why do we think a policy has an expected effect?! Because we have a theory (law-like statement) that predicts that given the policy is applied (condition), the expected effect will be obtained (prediction, or, explanandum).! ! Why do we have this theory and think it is a good theory?! Because the theory can explain phenomena related to the policy problem we want to address (adequacy conditions)! Here: why is there school segregation (in the US in the 1960’s)?! Implicit theory: Because pupils attend school in their neighborhood and neighborhoods are segregated.! ! If this is the explanation, what would it imply for the policy? 14
  • 37. Steps in the theoretical analysis of policy advice Why do we think a policy has an expected effect?! Because we have a theory (law-like statement) that predicts that given the policy is applied (condition), the expected effect will be obtained (prediction, or, explanandum).! ! Why do we have this theory and think it is a good theory?! Because the theory can explain phenomena related to the policy problem we want to address (adequacy conditions)! Here: why is there school segregation (in the US in the 1960’s)?! Implicit theory: Because pupils attend school in their neighborhood and neighborhoods are segregated.! ! If this is the explanation, what would it imply for the policy?! If we make pupils attend schools outside of their neighborhood with larger proportion of out-group, we increase interethnic contact at schools! Busing14
  • 38. This is the argument somewhat simplified ! ! ------------------------------------------! Busing increases racial equality Try to build the syllogism that concludes with the advice above 15
  • 39. This is the argument somewhat simplified Minority-majority contact increases racial equality! Busing increases minority-majority contact! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------! Busing increases racial equality Result of empirical research:! since advice was only for the US, empirical results concerning the US were treated as a law Assumption! following from our segregation theory Advice 16
  • 40. Is the argument valid? An even more simplified version Is the argument valid? 17 If there is minority-majority contact (C) there is racial equality (E)! Schools in districts with busing (B) have minority-majority contact (C)! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------! In schools in districts with busing (B), there is racial equality (E)
  • 41. Is the argument valid? An even more simplified version All C is E! All B is C! --------------! All B is E 18 If there is minority-majority contact (C) there is racial equality (E)! Schools in districts with busing (B) have minority-majority contact (C)! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------! In schools in districts with busing (B), there is racial equality (E)
  • 42. Is the argument valid? An even more simplified version All C is E! All B is C! --------------! All B is E 18 If there is minority-majority contact (C) there is racial equality (E)! Schools in districts with busing (B) have minority-majority contact (C)! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------! In schools in districts with busing (B), there is racial equality (E)
  • 43. Is the argument valid? An even more simplified version All C* is E! All B* is C! --------------! All B is E* 18 If there is minority-majority contact (C) there is racial equality (E)! Schools in districts with busing (B) have minority-majority contact (C)! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------! In schools in districts with busing (B), there is racial equality (E)
  • 44. Is the argument valid? An even more simplified version All C* is E! All B* is C! --------------! All B is E* C B E 18 If there is minority-majority contact (C) there is racial equality (E)! Schools in districts with busing (B) have minority-majority contact (C)! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------! In schools in districts with busing (B), there is racial equality (E)
  • 45. Is the argument valid? An even more simplified version All C* is E! All B* is C! --------------! All B is E* C B E 18 If there is minority-majority contact (C) there is racial equality (E)! Schools in districts with busing (B) have minority-majority contact (C)! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------! In schools in districts with busing (B), there is racial equality (E)
  • 46. Is the argument valid? An even more simplified version All C* is E! All B* is C! --------------! All B is E* C B E 18 If there is minority-majority contact (C) there is racial equality (E)! Schools in districts with busing (B) have minority-majority contact (C)! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------! In schools in districts with busing (B), there is racial equality (E)
  • 47. Did segregation policies worked out? (1) Districts without segregation policies ! (2) Districts where fewer than 50% of students were affected! (3) Districts where more than 50% of students were affected! (4) Overall Data from Logan et al. 2008 1 2 3 4 19
  • 48. Did segregation policies worked out? 1 2 3 4 There is school desegregation also when there is no intervention! Trend appears to be equally strong for regions with many students who were affected by the intervention! Hence, it is questionable whether desegregation policies had an effect 20
  • 49. What might have gone wrong? Busing was used in mixed school districts where the school composition did not match the racial composition of the district! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 21
  • 50. What might have gone wrong? Busing was used in mixed school districts where the school composition did not match the racial composition of the district! ! Coleman (1975) himself argued that in large cities desegregation may motivate whites to move to white school districts where there are no desegregation programs (because school composition matches composition of district)! ! ! ! 21
  • 51. What might have gone wrong? Busing was used in mixed school districts where the school composition did not match the racial composition of the district! ! Coleman (1975) himself argued that in large cities desegregation may motivate whites to move to white school districts where there are no desegregation programs (because school composition matches composition of district)! ! This tendency is called white flight! ! 21
  • 52. What might have gone wrong? Busing was used in mixed school districts where the school composition did not match the racial composition of the district! ! Coleman (1975) himself argued that in large cities desegregation may motivate whites to move to white school districts where there are no desegregation programs (because school composition matches composition of district)! ! This tendency is called white flight! ! Results from Coleman’s study: 21
  • 53. What might have gone wrong? Results from Coleman’s study: 22
  • 54. What might have gone wrong? Note that the white-flight argument is debated. However, a recent overview concluded that the preponderance of evidence now suggests that school desegregation is a push factor for whites (Logan et al. 2008).! ! ! ! ! 23
  • 55. What might have gone wrong? Note that the white-flight argument is debated. However, a recent overview concluded that the preponderance of evidence now suggests that school desegregation is a push factor for whites (Logan et al. 2008).! ! White flight suggests a decrease in school segregation within school districts but simultaneously an increase in segregation between districts! ! 23
  • 56. What might have gone wrong? Note that the white-flight argument is debated. However, a recent overview concluded that the preponderance of evidence now suggests that school desegregation is a push factor for whites (Logan et al. 2008).! ! White flight suggests a decrease in school segregation within school districts but simultaneously an increase in segregation between districts! ! This may have consequences for the effect of busing 23
  • 57. This was the argument Minority-majority contact increases racial equality! Busing increases minority-majority contact! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------! Busing increases racial equality This may be problematic:! It may be true that busing leads to more contact. However, the argument has a hidden ceteris paribus assumption. 24
  • 58. The problem with ceteris paribus assumptions The busing advice implicitly presumes that all other things remain equal! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 25
  • 59. The problem with ceteris paribus assumptions The busing advice implicitly presumes that all other things remain equal! It is assumed that busing does not have any other consequences that might lead to less contact between the groups! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 25
  • 60. The problem with ceteris paribus assumptions The busing advice implicitly presumes that all other things remain equal! It is assumed that busing does not have any other consequences that might lead to less contact between the groups! It also presumes that contact may not be influenced by other processes! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 25
  • 61. The problem with ceteris paribus assumptions The busing advice implicitly presumes that all other things remain equal! It is assumed that busing does not have any other consequences that might lead to less contact between the groups! It also presumes that contact may not be influenced by other processes! ! Thus, it is possible that ! An advice is valid in the sense that all premises are true,! ! ! ! ! ! ! 25
  • 62. The problem with ceteris paribus assumptions The busing advice implicitly presumes that all other things remain equal! It is assumed that busing does not have any other consequences that might lead to less contact between the groups! It also presumes that contact may not be influenced by other processes! ! Thus, it is possible that ! An advice is valid in the sense that all premises are true,! And, that they imply the expected effects of the policy! ! ! ! ! ! 25
  • 63. The problem with ceteris paribus assumptions The busing advice implicitly presumes that all other things remain equal! It is assumed that busing does not have any other consequences that might lead to less contact between the groups! It also presumes that contact may not be influenced by other processes! ! Thus, it is possible that ! An advice is valid in the sense that all premises are true,! And, that they imply the expected effects of the policy! Nevertheless, the policy may not have the expected effects! ! ! ! ! 25
  • 64. The problem with ceteris paribus assumptions The busing advice implicitly presumes that all other things remain equal! It is assumed that busing does not have any other consequences that might lead to less contact between the groups! It also presumes that contact may not be influenced by other processes! ! Thus, it is possible that ! An advice is valid in the sense that all premises are true,! And, that they imply the expected effects of the policy! Nevertheless, the policy may not have the expected effects! ! This happens when the implicit ceteris paribus assumption is wrong! ! ! 25
  • 65. The problem with ceteris paribus assumptions The busing advice implicitly presumes that all other things remain equal! It is assumed that busing does not have any other consequences that might lead to less contact between the groups! It also presumes that contact may not be influenced by other processes! ! Thus, it is possible that ! An advice is valid in the sense that all premises are true,! And, that they imply the expected effects of the policy! Nevertheless, the policy may not have the expected effects! ! This happens when the implicit ceteris paribus assumption is wrong! ! Thus, when we develop an advice:! Consider whether the policy has unintended effects which might intervene 25
  • 66. The problem with ceteris paribus assumptions Note that many explanations are based on ceteris paribus assumptions as well! ! ! ! 26
  • 67. The problem with ceteris paribus assumptions Note that many explanations are based on ceteris paribus assumptions as well! ! However, when we test explanations! We can (at least) statistically control for effects of other variables! 26
  • 68. The problem with ceteris paribus assumptions Note that many explanations are based on ceteris paribus assumptions as well! ! However, when we test explanations! We can (at least) statistically control for effects of other variables! Thus, this is not a serious problem for explanations. 26
  • 69. Empirical support for white flight This measures to which degree school composition maps composition of districts This measures the degree to which districts of a metropolitan area have similar racial composition + Segregation decreased even without interventions + No changes without intervention! + but slightly stronger increase in segregation between districts with interventions
  • 70. Example school segregation in the US: Summary The aim was to increase educational equality in the US by decreasing school segregation! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 28
  • 71. Example school segregation in the US: Summary The aim was to increase educational equality in the US by decreasing school segregation! ! Busing was an adequate policy in the sense that there was a valid argument that predicted it would have the desired effects! ! ! ! ! ! ! 28
  • 72. Example school segregation in the US: Summary The aim was to increase educational equality in the US by decreasing school segregation! ! Busing was an adequate policy in the sense that there was a valid argument that predicted it would have the desired effects! ! However, the underlying theory made implicit ceteris paribus assumptions. An additional process (white flights) led to increased segregation between school districts. This hampered the effects of busing.! ! ! 28
  • 73. Example school segregation in the US: Summary The aim was to increase educational equality in the US by decreasing school segregation! ! Busing was an adequate policy in the sense that there was a valid argument that predicted it would have the desired effects! ! However, the underlying theory made implicit ceteris paribus assumptions. An additional process (white flights) led to increased segregation between school districts. This hampered the effects of busing.! ! What is more, some scholars argue that busing might have even triggered/ increased white flights 28
  • 74. Example school segregation in the US: Summary Thus, when you develop policy advices, be aware of the fact that theories make implicit ceteris paribus assumptions! ! ! ! ! ! 29
  • 75. Example school segregation in the US: Summary Thus, when you develop policy advices, be aware of the fact that theories make implicit ceteris paribus assumptions! ! Try to predict what might go wrong and how likely this might happen and consider this when you give an advice! ! ! 29
  • 76. Example school segregation in the US: Summary Thus, when you develop policy advices, be aware of the fact that theories make implicit ceteris paribus assumptions! ! Try to predict what might go wrong and how likely this might happen and consider this when you give an advice! ! If there is a trade-off, then try to find an optimal strategy:! 29
  • 77. Example school segregation in the US: Summary Thus, when you develop policy advices, be aware of the fact that theories make implicit ceteris paribus assumptions! ! Try to predict what might go wrong and how likely this might happen and consider this when you give an advice! ! If there is a trade-off, then try to find an optimal strategy:! 29 Busing only in smaller towns, where people hardly move
  • 78. Coleman’s conclusion If a policy does not actively employ the interest of those on whom it has an impact, it will find those interests actively employed in directions that defeat its goals! ! ! ! 30
  • 79. Coleman’s conclusion If a policy does not actively employ the interest of those on whom it has an impact, it will find those interests actively employed in directions that defeat its goals! ! In designing policy it is useful to take an individualistic perspective:! ! 30
  • 80. Coleman’s conclusion If a policy does not actively employ the interest of those on whom it has an impact, it will find those interests actively employed in directions that defeat its goals! ! In designing policy it is useful to take an individualistic perspective:! start from the goals of the individuals and assume that they try to achieve their goals under the given policy (not the goals of the policy makers). 30
  • 81. Part 2: Steps to come from theories to policy advice 31
  • 82. Steps Step 1: Find related phenomena to explain Step 2: Develop a valid explanation Step 3: Policy implications 32
  • 83. Example 2: School segregation in the Netherlands 33
  • 84. Segregation between primary schools in NL 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 .00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 % minority surrounding neighborhood proportion minority at school Residential segregation and school segregation in 2001 Data from Statistics Netherlands and Ministry of Education (1391 primary schools in 31 biggest cities) 34
  • 85. Segregation between primary schools in NL Half of all primary schools in the 4 biggest cities are black schools! >50% students with non- western cultural background! ! ! ! ! ! 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 .00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 % minority surrounding neighborhood proportion minority at school Residential segregation and school segregation in 2001 Data from Statistics Netherlands and Ministry of Education (1391 primary schools in 31 biggest cities) 34
  • 86. Segregation between primary schools in NL Half of all primary schools in the 4 biggest cities are black schools! >50% students with non- western cultural background! Constitutionally guaranteed freedom of school choice! ! ! ! 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 .00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 % minority surrounding neighborhood proportion minority at school Residential segregation and school segregation in 2001 Data from Statistics Netherlands and Ministry of Education (1391 primary schools in 31 biggest cities) 34
  • 87. Segregation between primary schools in NL Half of all primary schools in the 4 biggest cities are black schools! >50% students with non- western cultural background! Constitutionally guaranteed freedom of school choice! Strong residential segregation in big cities! ! 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 .00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 % minority surrounding neighborhood proportion minority at school Residential segregation and school segregation in 2001 Data from Statistics Netherlands and Ministry of Education (1391 primary schools in 31 biggest cities) 34
  • 88. Segregation between primary schools in NL Half of all primary schools in the 4 biggest cities are black schools! >50% students with non- western cultural background! Constitutionally guaranteed freedom of school choice! Strong residential segregation in big cities! Policy in NL until recently: encourage mixing 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 .00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 % minority surrounding neighborhood proportion minority at school Residential segregation and school segregation in 2001 Data from Statistics Netherlands and Ministry of Education (1391 primary schools in 31 biggest cities) 34
  • 89. How to find a suitable individualistic theory? Explanandum:! ! The larger the proportion of non-western immigrants in a neighborhood, the larger the proportion of non-western immigrant pupils at school in this neighborhood Step 1: Find related phenomena to explain 35
  • 90. Main elements of an individualistic explanation(i.e., Coleman, Lindenberg) Independent! Macro-variable Dependent! Macro-variable Input individual choice:! Choice options! Information! Costs and benefits... Output: ! Individual choice Explanandum: ! Macro relationship Theory ! of action Bridge ! assumptions Transformation ! assumptions 36
  • 91. How to find a suitable individualistic theory? First theory: distance minimization (1)! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Step 2: Develop a valid explanation 37
  • 92. How to find a suitable individualistic theory? First theory: distance minimization (1)! ! Independent macro-variable:! % immigrants in the local area (neighborhood or city)! ! ! ! ! ! ! Step 2: Develop a valid explanation 37
  • 93. How to find a suitable individualistic theory? First theory: distance minimization (1)! ! Independent macro-variable:! % immigrants in the local area (neighborhood or city)! Dependent macro-variable! % immigrants in the schools of the local area! ! ! ! ! Step 2: Develop a valid explanation 37
  • 94. How to find a suitable individualistic theory? First theory: distance minimization (1)! ! Independent macro-variable:! % immigrants in the local area (neighborhood or city)! Dependent macro-variable! % immigrants in the schools of the local area! Mechanism! Individual parents select (boundedly) rationally from available schools! ! ! Step 2: Develop a valid explanation 37
  • 95. How to find a suitable individualistic theory? First theory: distance minimization (1)! ! Independent macro-variable:! % immigrants in the local area (neighborhood or city)! Dependent macro-variable! % immigrants in the schools of the local area! Mechanism! Individual parents select (boundedly) rationally from available schools! Parents want to minimize distance to school! ! Step 2: Develop a valid explanation 37
  • 96. How to find a suitable individualistic theory? First theory: distance minimization (1)! ! Independent macro-variable:! % immigrants in the local area (neighborhood or city)! Dependent macro-variable! % immigrants in the schools of the local area! Mechanism! Individual parents select (boundedly) rationally from available schools! Parents want to minimize distance to school! Parents are indifferent with regard to ethnic composition of school (This is an assumption which might be wrong) Step 2: Develop a valid explanation 37
  • 97. How to find a suitable individualistic theory? Actually,! “... about 70% of the parents had not considered any schools outside their local area (postcode district)” p. 461, Karsten et al. 2003. School Choice and Ethnic Segregation. Educational Policy 17.! Based on representative survey of parents in NL (N=931) Step 2: Develop a valid explanation (continuation) 38
  • 98. Elaboration of an individualistic explanation (graphically) School location % minority school % minority in ! proximity school Costs of choosing this school for parents Likelihood parents choose this school + + - Macro Micro Likelihood these parents are minority transformation 39
  • 99. Reconstruction as valid individualistic explanation The shorter the distance to a school, the larger the expected utility from selecting this school for parents (law)! ! The higher the perceived utility of a course of action, the more likely an individual will choose this action (theory of action)! ! Parents choose between school-in-own-neighborhoods and school-in-another- neighborhood 40
  • 100. Reconstruction as valid individualistic explanation The shorter the distance to a school, the larger the expected utility from selecting this school for parents (law)! ! The higher the perceived utility of a course of action, the more likely an individual will choose this action (theory of action)! ! Parents choose between school-in-own-neighborhoods and school-in-another- neighborhood The shorter the distance to a school, the more likely parents choose this school 40
  • 101. Reconstruction as valid individualistic explanation (2) The shorter the distance to a school, the more likely parents choose this school (ceteris paribus)! ! In big cities in the Netherlands, around year 2000, the distance to a school in the own neighborhood is shorter than to schools in another neighborhood (Condition) 41
  • 102. Reconstruction as valid individualistic explanation (2) The shorter the distance to a school, the more likely parents choose this school (ceteris paribus)! ! In big cities in the Netherlands, around year 2000, the distance to a school in the own neighborhood is shorter than to schools in another neighborhood (Condition) In big cities in the Netherlands, around year 2000, parents choose more likely schools within their own neighborhood than outside their own neighborhood. 41
  • 103. Reconstruction as valid individualistic explanation (3) In big cities in the Netherlands, around year 2000, parents choose more likely schools within their own neighborhood than outside their own neighborhood.! ! The larger the proportion of minority members in the neighborhood, the more likely individual parents are minority members (bridge) 42
  • 104. Reconstruction as valid individualistic explanation (3) In big cities in the Netherlands, around year 2000, the larger the proportion of minority members in a neighborhood, the more likely parents who choose for a school in that neighborhood are minority members. 42 In big cities in the Netherlands, around year 2000, parents choose more likely schools within their own neighborhood than outside their own neighborhood.! ! The larger the proportion of minority members in the neighborhood, the more likely individual parents are minority members (bridge)
  • 105. Reconstruction as valid individualistic explanation (4) In big cities in the Netherlands, around year 2000, the larger the proportion of minority members in a neighborhood, the more likely parents who choose for a school in that neighborhood are minority members.! ! The more likely the parents who choose for a school are minority members, the larger the proportion of minority members at that school (Transformation) 43
  • 106. Reconstruction as valid individualistic explanation (4) In big cities in the Netherlands, around year 2000, the larger the proportion of minority members in a neighborhood, the more likely parents who choose for a school in that neighborhood are minority members.! ! The more likely the parents who choose for a school are minority members, the larger the proportion of minority members at that school (Transformation) In big cities in the Netherlands, around year 2000, the larger the proportion of minority members in a neighborhood, the larger the proportion of minority members at that school This is the explanandum 43
  • 107. How to find a suitable individualistic theory? The theory can explain the association between neighborhood composition and school composition.! ! What if the theory were correct? Which policies would then reduce school segregation? Step 3: Policy implications (Theory of distance minimization) 44
  • 108. How to find a suitable individualistic theory? The theory can explain the association between neighborhood composition and school composition.! ! What if the theory were correct? Which policies would then reduce school segregation?! ! Residential desegregation policy (i.e., create mixed neighborhoods)! ! Choose locations of schools in between black and white neighborhoods. Step 3: Policy implications (Theory of distance minimization) 44
  • 109. A valid simplified argument for residential desegregation policy Neighborhoods with residential desegregation policies are on average more heterogeneous than other neighborhoods (all D are H)! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 45
  • 110. A valid simplified argument for residential desegregation policy Neighborhoods with residential desegregation policies are on average more heterogeneous than other neighborhoods (all D are H)! ! If a neighborhood is more heterogeneous, then schools in this neighborhood are also more heterogeneous (all H is Sh)! ! ! ! ! ! 45
  • 111. A valid simplified argument for residential desegregation policy Neighborhoods with residential desegregation policies are on average more heterogeneous than other neighborhoods (all D are H)! ! If a neighborhood is more heterogeneous, then schools in this neighborhood are also more heterogeneous (all H is Sh)! ! Notice that this latter statement follows from our theory of distance minimization for NL around 2000! ! ! 45
  • 112. A valid simplified argument for residential desegregation policy Neighborhoods with residential desegregation policies are on average more heterogeneous than other neighborhoods (all D are H)! ! If a neighborhood is more heterogeneous, then schools in this neighborhood are also more heterogeneous (all H is Sh)! ! Notice that this latter statement follows from our theory of distance minimization for NL around 2000! ! Thus: In neighborhoods to which residential desegregation policies are applied, schools are on average more heterogeneous than in other neighborhoods. 45
  • 113. Would this work? Zoned access rule - the case ofTiel To realize the goal of desegregation, the school boards in Tiel formed and implemented their natural recruitment zones scheme. In each zone there is a Catholic, Protestant and a public school. So, according to the boards and the BCP, parents would have sufficient opportunities to choose a school in relation to their freedom of education. Children should go to a school in the zone they live in. This means that schools would not be allowed to admit children from other zones. Dorothee Peters, George Muskens, 2011. Ethnic School Segregation Exists: Possibilities for Counteracting Measures. The Open Education Journal. 4, 158-163.46
  • 114. An extended theory: but why? Differences between school composition and neighborhood composition in NL (in 2002). Too black = % minority > 1.5* neighborhood! Too white = % minority < 0.5* neighborhood Number schools Percentage too black 694 50% representative 514 37% too white 183 13% Total 1391 100% How can we explain this with distance minimization?! Not with our version of the theory. So, let’s try something else.47
  • 115. Would this work? Zoned access rule - the case ofTiel Of those native Dutch parents, 60.3% considered the non white schools on their locality to be completely unsuitable; fewer ethnic minority parents were of this opinion; but still 45.3% of them did think this. Considerably more than the number of ethnic minority parents who considered the representative and White schools to be completely unsuitable: about 25%. pg. 464, Karsten et al. 2003. School Choice and Ethnic Segregation. Educational Policy 17! Based on representative survey of parents in NL (N=931)48
  • 116. The theory of white flight We keep this from the theory of distance minimization The smaller the distance to a school, the larger the expected utility from selecting this school for parents (ceteris paribus)! ! The higher the perceived utility of a course of action, the more likely an individual will choose this action (theory of action)! ! Parents choose between school-in-own-neighborhoods and school-in-another- neighborhood (Definition) The smaller the distance to a school, the more likely parents choose this school (ceteris paribus) 49
  • 117. Our extension The smaller the distance to a school, the larger the expected utility from selecting this school for parents (ceteris paribus)! ! The larger the expected proportion of minority students, the lower is for native parents the expected utility of selecting the school (ceteris paribus)! ! This implies that native parents select more likely schools with larger distance from their own neighborhood if they live in a black neighborhood (what is the implicit assumption here?)! ! This implies that in neighborhoods with a large proportion of minority, schools are too black because native parents flee to other schools (outside the neighborhood) 50
  • 118. Policy implications Zoned access rule Without zoned access rule, native parents in black neighborhoods choose schools outside their neighborhood, such that school becomes too black (all N that are without zoned access=za and that are black are also neighborhoods with too black schools=Bs)! ! With zoned access rule, all parents choose schools in their neighborhoods=Sn (All N that are za are Sn)! ! No neighborhood where parents choose schools within their neighborhood has too black schools (No Sn is Bs)! ! Thus:! if no za and black neighborhood, then Bs! if za then no Bs 51
  • 119. How developing deeper explanations may help to develop better policies An explanation A is deeper than an explanation B, if A implies conditions under which the phenomenon explained by B is also predicted to occur by A and other conditions under A predict that the phenomenon should not occur! ! Deeper explanations can give more insight into the underlying process 52
  • 120. Example: The larger the expected proportion of minority students, the lower is for native parents the expected utility of selecting this school (ceteris paribus)! ! Why should this be the case?! ! Many studies show:! ! Most parents are mainly concerned about the quality of the school! ! Many native parents think that black schools have poorer quality! ! This explains why many native parents do not want their children to attend a black school 53
  • 121. In Amsterdam, two [native Dutch] parents started [an] initiative in 2002 by registering their children at a primary school in their neighborhood (at that moment a so called black school, situated in a mixed neighborhood) and proposed actions towards mixing the school population. The parents distributed leaflets on the initiative and together with the school they organized an informative meeting for parents in the neighborhood. The school arranged attractive changes of the school curriculum and invested in the physical appearance and the maintenance of the school building. At strategically chosen occasions, the school arranged publicity and presented itself as a school of interest. This is a process continuing until today. Three years after the start of the activities, the lowest grades showed a mixed population of pupils (50-50 percent). Nowadays, all grades show comparative percentages. Dorothee Peters, George Muskens, 2011. Ethnic School Segregation Exists: Possibilities for Counteracting Measures. The Open Education Journal. 4, 158-163. 54
  • 122. Why does the parents’ initiative work? If parents believe that a school is a good school, they send their child to that school! This is a good school! This is a school in a black neighborhood! Without further information, most native parents think that schools in black neighborhoods are bad schools! Thus: most native parents believe this school is a bad school! Thus: most native parents do not send their child to this school! The parent initiative makes the native parents aware that the school is actually a good school! ! Thus: if there is a parent initiative AND a school in a black neighborhood is good THEN native parents send their child to this school. If there is not parent initiative they don’t. 55
  • 123. Summary (1) What are criteria for a good theoretical basis for developing policy advice?! ! The most important criterion is that you have a valid reasoning. That is: you have an adequate explanation (according to the conditions of adequacy) of how the expected effects of the proposed policy logically follow from an explicitly formulated theory (law + condition). 56
  • 124. Summary (2) Learn what are the steps in coming from theory to advice! ! Step 1: Find related phenomena to explain! ! Step 2: Develop valid explanations for these phenomena! ! Step 3: Derive from the theory that you use to explain the phenomena, why the proposed policy advice should have the proposed effects (valid reasoning) 57
  • 125. Summary (3) Learn what are the problems of applying theories to real life problems! ! The most important problem is that you overlook implicit ceteris paribus assumptions in your reasoning, that turn out to not be true! ! One way to address this problem is that you try to develop deeper explanations that specify under what conditions certain premises apply and when they do not apply. 58
  • 126. Tutorial - Assignment in Nestor ✤ Assignments will not be received after the beginning of the tutorial! ✤ In the tutorial we will solve the assignment together and answer questions about it 59