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Strategic thinking
by Pham Hung Cuong
5/14/2023
1
Objectives
O Demonstrate knowledge of the specific tools
and frameworks of strategy as it relates to the
current competitive strategy of an organization
and its operating environment
O Select and apply strategy tools and frameworks
with which to produce an analysis of the
strategic issues facing an organization and an
evaluation of the appropriateness of its current
strategy.
5/14/2023 2
References
Essential Textbook
O Foundations of Strategy, 2012, Robert M Grant & Judith Jordan. Wiley
Additional Texts
O Exploring Strategy, 9th edition, 2011, Gerry Johnson, Richard
Whittington, Kevan Scholes, Prentice Hall
O Good Strategy Bad Strategy. The Difference and Why it Matters. 2011.
Richard Rumelt. Palgrave
O Understanding Michael Porter. Essential Guide to Competition and
Strategy. 2012. Joan Magretta. Harvard Business School Press
O Playing to win. How Strategy Really Works. 2013. A.G. Lafley and
Roger L. Martin. Harvard Business Review Press.
5/14/2023 3
Evaluation
O Attendance: 10%
O Mid-term exam: 30%
O Final paper: 60%
5/14/2023 4
Rules required inside class
Do not lay your head on the desk, fall asleep
Do not do private things
Keep your mobile phones silent
Raise questions if you do not understand
5/14/2023 5
Strategic thinking
by Pham Hung Cuong
Chapter 1
What is strategy?
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6
Questions
1. What is strategy?
2. What are roles of strategy in success?
3. How do you describe a firm’s strategy?
4. Whose interests should be prioritized?
5. What are considerations for analysing competition?
5/14/2023 7
What is strategy?
O Some elements/characteristics
O Long term
O Competitive advantage
O Planning
O Distinctiveness
O “Big” decisions
OSignificant resources
OImportant
ONot easily reversible
5/14/2023 8
What is strategy?
O Where to compete?
O Which businesses should we be in?
O A corporate strategy decision
O How to compete?
O How do we create / build / defend a
competitive advantage?
O A competitive strategy / business strategy
decision
O Interlinked but, in principle, distinct
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Strategy is about choice
5/14/2023 10
The role of strategy in success
Common elements in successful strategies
Successful Strategy
Simple,
consistent, long-
term goals
Profound
understanding of
the competitive
environment
Objective
appraisal of
resources
Effective Implementation
5/14/2023 11
Strategy today
O What is strategy?
RATE OF RETURN
ABOVE THE COST
OF CAPITAL
How do we make
money?
INDUSTRY
ATRACTIVENESS
Which industries
should we be in?
COMPETITIVE
ADVANTAGE
How should we
compete?
CORPORA
TE
STRATEGY
BUSINESS
STRATEGY
5/14/2023 12
How do we describe a firm’s strategy?
Static
Where are we competing?
How are we competing?
Dynamic
What do we want to
become?
What do we want to
achieve?
How will we get here?
5/14/2023 13
How do we identify a firm’s strategy?
O The mission statement – ‘Why we exist?’
O A statement of principles and values – ‘What we
believe in and how we will behave’
O The vision statement – ‘What we want to be’
O The strategy statement – ‘What our competitive
game plan will be’
O Where is the company investing its money?
O What technologies is the company developing?
O What new products have been released?
O Intended vs. released vs. emergent strategy
5/14/2023 14
Whose interests should be prioritised?
O Shareholders vs. stakeholders
O Profit and purpose
O The debate over CSR
5/14/2023 15
Developing analytical tools
• The foundations of mainstream strategy lie in
analysis of competition and firms’ quest to
outperform their rivals.
• Four key considerations:
- Competition
- The market for corporate control
- Convergence of stakeholder interests
- Simplicity
5/14/2023 16
Strategy analysis
THE FIRM
•Goals and values
•Resources and
capabilities
•Structure and
systems
THE INDUSTRY
ENVIRONMENT
•Competitors
•Customers
•Suppliers
STRATEGY
5/14/2023 17
What is strategy?
A plan to
achieve our
goals.
Exists at
multiple
levels – all
linked.
Helps us
make wise
choices as
conditions
change.
As
conditions
change, the
plan itself
evolves.
5/14/2023 18
Discussion
Choose a specific company and:
- Make short introduction about this company.
- Analyse its biggest competitor.
5/14/2023 19
Strategic thinking
by Pham Hung Cuong
Chapter 2
What is Strategic Thinking?
5/14/2023
20
Questions
1. What is Strategic thinking?
2. What are different between strategic thinking and
strategic planning?
3. What are different between reactive future approach
and proactive future approach?
4. How do you get started with strategic thinking?
5. What is aim of strategic thinking?
5/14/2023 21
What is strategic thinking?
• “At this point, there is no generally accepted
definition of the term, no common agreement
as to its role or importance, and no
standardized list of key competencies of
strategic thinkers.” Wikipedia
5/14/2023 22
What is strategic thinking?
Strategic thinking
is learned, not
innate.
Strategic thinking
cannot be taught.
5/14/2023 23
What is strategic thinking?
The ability to see what is and what could be –
and make choices that lead to desired outcomes.
Analysis
Vision/Goals
Seeing
systems
5/14/2023 24
What’s your definition
of strategic thinking?
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25
From the literature
• “The way in which people in an
organization think about, assess,
view and create the future for
themselves and their associates. It
is more than responding to both
day-to-day as well as long-term
problems, opportunities and new
realities; it is creating tomorrow.
It is not reactive, but proactive…
Strategic thinking always
involves change, and often,
profound personal change.”
Kaufman et al (2003: 40-41)
• A “cognitive process … that
precedes strategic planning or
action, whereby an individual
contemplates the future
development of the organisation
whilst considering its attributes,
its past and present and the
external realities within which it
operates.”
Tavakoli and Lawton (2005: 6)
5/14/2023
26
Strategic thinking is identifying, imagining and understanding
possible future operating environments for your organization.
You can use that knowledge to expand your thinking about
your potential strategic options…
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27
…to position your organization effectively
in the external environment,
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28
…in order to make better informed decisions
about action to take today.
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29
• Thinking about
the future is using
your innate
foresight capacity.
• In a strategy
context, for an
organisation, it’s
about building a
strategic foresight
capacity.
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30
Foresight?
• The ability to take a forward view and use the insights
gained in organisationally useful ways.
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31
Current approaches
to strategic thinking
Traditional Trying Futures
Ready
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32
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33
Strategic Thinking Strategic Planning
Only the shape of the future can be
predicted
Future is predictable and specifiable in detail
Relies on self-reference – a sense of strategic
intent and purpose embedded in the minds of
managers that guides their choices
Asserts control through measurement
Requires that managers have an
understanding of the larger system
Assumes that the manager below need only
to know his or her own role well
Sees strategy and change as inescapably linked
and assumes that finding new strategic options
and implementing them successfully is harder
and more important than evaluating them
Assumes that the challenge of setting
strategic direction is primarily analytic
Sees the planning process itself as a critical
value-adding element
Focus on the creation of the plan as the
ultimate object
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Purpose Thought Process
Strategic Thinking Discovernovel, imaginative
strategies that can re-write the
rules of the competitive
game; and to envision
potential futures;
significantly different from
the present.
Synthetic
Divergent
Creative
Strategic Planning Operationalise strategies
developed through strategic
thinking, and to support the
strategic thinking process.
Analytical
Convergent
Conventional
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35
• Longterm Uncertain
Divergent
• Incomplete
• Beyond linear
• Disrupting alignment
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36
• Short term
• Logical
• Convergent
• Pragmatic
• Deductive
• Creating
• Alignment
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37
• Current strategy processes tend to focus on the plan
as the major outcome, rather than a shared
understanding of your organization's preferred future
to inform action today.
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39
Thinktomorrow is going
to be more of today
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40
Can’tcope
withthe
unexpected
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41
Usually don’t explore
the long term future
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42
Preferquantitative over
qualitative information
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43
Don’t challenge
assumptions
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44
Downplay or dismiss staff beliefs,
hopes and fears about the future
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Mintzberg (1994)
• “Strategic planning often spoils strategic thinking,
causing managers to confuse real vision with the
manipulation of numbers…”, and that “…the most
successful strategies are visions, not plans”. Strategic
planning then is better characterised as “strategic
programming, the articulation and elaboration of
strategies, or visions, that already exist”.
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46
Heracleous (1998)
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47
Liedtka (1998)
• Traditional strategic planning processes as having
“choked initiative and favoured incremental over
substantive change.
They have emphasized analytics and extrapolation
rather than creativity and invention….They have
lulled us into complacency with their comforting
illusion of certainty in what is in reality a
hopelessly uncertain world.”
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48
But…Lietdka (1998)
• “There is little in the notion of planning itself that
undermines strategic thinking; rather, it is the
processes through which we have operationalized
planning, and the assumptions that we have made
about how and who ought to plan, that have
gotten us into trouble. We have designed planning
systems where participation in formulation is limited
to senior management, while the rest of the
organization waits to implement.”
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49
• Current strategy processes live in the pragmatic
futures realm.
• Working within the existing paradigm, making it
better, but not challenging it.
• We call it „strategic planning‟.
• Beyond strategic planning – to strategy development
and implementation.
• Moving into the progressive futures realm, where
we challenge the current paradigm and re-interpret
how we do business to meet the challenges of the
future
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50
Moving from pragmatic to progressive approaches requires
a strong focus on building a high quality strategic thinking
capacity in your organisation.
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51
We can't solve
problemsby using the
same kind of thinking
we used when we
created them.
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52
Reactive Future Approach Proactive Future Approach
What has happened? What is happening?
What caused it to happen? What is driving the trends that
will influence our future?
What are our alternative futures?
How do we respond? What ought we do today?
What would be the long term
consequences of our actions
today be?
What will we do? What will we do?
After the event Anticipating the event
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The gap between reactive and proactive approaches
is bridged by making time for strategic thinking.
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54
So how do we get
startedwith
strategic
thinking?
5/14/2023
55
Inputs
Analysis
Interpretation
“what is happening out there?”
“what seems to be happening?”
“what‟s really happening?”
Prospection “what might happen?”
Outputs “what might we need to do?”
Strategy “what will we do?” “how will we do it?”
Foresight
5/14/2023
56
Plan and
Do
Thinking
Envision a
preferred
future
Identify
Drivers of
Change
External
Quantitative
Tangible
S e en
Internal
Qualitative
Intangible
Unseen
Planning
Critique
Drivers
for
Relevance
Imagine
what’s
possible
5/14/2023
57
• The aim of strategic thinking is
to understand - as best we can -
the long term context of our
decisions today so that we make
those decisions as wise and as
robust as is possible.
5/14/2023
58
Discussion
Choose a specific company and:
- Make short introduction about this company.
- How does this company get started with strategic
thinking?
5/14/2023 59
Strategic thinking
by Pham Hung Cuong
Chapter 3
Some strategic thinking tools
5/14/2023
60
Questions
1. What are the factors of internal environmental
scanning?
2. What are the factors of external environmental
scanning?
3. What is the biggest challenge to strategic thinking?
4. What are attributes of strategic thinking?
5. What are factors of strategic thinking?
5/14/2023 61
Inputs
Analysis
Interpretation
“what is happening out there?”
“what seems to be happening?”
“what‟s really happening?”
Prospection “what might happen?”
Outputs “what might we need to do?”
Strategy “what will we do?” “how will we do it?”
Foresight
5/14/2023
62
Inputs
• Environmental
Scanning
• Provides the raw
information to inform your
strategic thinking.
• Both internal and external
to your organisation.
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63
Where to scan
Global,
multiple
dispersed
cases,trends
and
megatrends
Newspapers,
magazines,websites,
journals,blogs
Government
Institutions
LateMajority
Numberof
cases;
degreeof
Scientists,artists,
radicals,mystics Mainstream
Laggards
public
awareness
Fewcases,
local focus
EmergingIssues
Innovators
LateAdopters
Trends
Early adopters
Today Time
Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years
5/14/2023
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Analysis
• Looking for patterns and themes
relevant for your organisation.
• Trend analysis
• Emerging Issues Analysis
• Forecasting
• Delphi
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65
Interpretation
• System structure and
dynamics – whose
beliefs are dominant?
• What‟s driving the
trends? And what does
it mean for us?
• How will they develop?
• Futures Wheel
• Cross Impact Analysis
• Causal Layered Analysis
5/14/2023
66
Prospection
• How will the trends
evolve over the next
10-20 years?
• How might we
respond? What are our
options?
• Scenario planning
• Visioning
• Backcasting
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The biggest challenge
to strategic thinking
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The busyness syndrome
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70
• The pressures of his job drive the manager to be
superficial in his actions - to overload himself
with work, encourage interruption, respond
quickly to every stimulus, seek the tangible and
avoid the abstract, makes decisions in small
increments, and do everything abruptly.
Henry Mintzberg. The Manager‟s Job: Folklore or
Fact, HBR, 1975
5/14/2023
71
• “Managers who get caught in the trap of
overwhelming demands become prisoners of
routine. They do not have time to notice
opportunities. Their habituated work prevents them
from taking the first necessary step toward
harnessing willpower: developing the capacity to
dream an idea into existence and transforming it
into a concrete existence.”
Heike Bruch & Sumantra Ghoshal, A Bias for Action: How Effective Managers Harness
Their Willpower, Achieve Results, and Stop Wasting Time, HBSP, 2004
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To think strategically,
you have to move beyond busy. 5/14/2023
73
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• Scan often,
scan well
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• Invest more
time in
doing this…
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76
• …as well
as this.
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Think long term, act today
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78
Individual
Unconscious
Implicit
Solitary
Organisational
Conscious
Explicit
Collective
5/14/2023
79
What this means
Individual
Consciousness
Individuals
in Action
Critical Mass
of Staff
Strategic
Foresight
Capacity
Values/Beliefs New models New processes
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80
We think strategically to avoid havingthis perspective on the future…
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81
Key questions that can help
O What is our goal/purpose?
O What key problems, causes and solutions do we exist to address?
O What are past, current and possible future trends?
O What are the key opportunities and threats we face? (Where is greatest
leverage? Where is greatest risk?)
O What will it take? What are possible course of action?
O What are the implications of these choices?
O What criteria will we use to choose and evaluate a course of action?
O How does our plan intersect with other goals/plans?
5/14/2023 82
What is strategic thinking?
O Reviewing the literature related to strategic
management, points out that there is no agreement
on definition of strategic thinking. A number of
authors have used strategic thinking
interchangeably with other concepts such as
strategic planning or strategic management
(Monnavarian et al, 2011).
5/14/2023 83
What is strategic thinking
O Strategic thinking has been investigated in
both the management and psychological
literature with the management literature
concentrating on the process of strategic
thinking and making strategic decisions
(Mintzberg, 1994; Drejer et al., 2005) whereas
the psychological literature has concentrated
on factors affecting strategic thinking and
decision making (Hambrick and Mason, 2001;
Pant, 1998).
5/14/2023 84
What is strategic thinking?
O According to the management approach
strategic thinking involves two distinct
thought processes: planning and thinking.
Planning concerns analysis, this involves
establishing and formalizing systems and
procedures whereas thinking involves
synthesis encouraging intuitive, innovative
and creative thinking at all levels of the
organization (Mintzberg, 1994).
5/14/2023 85
What is strategic thinking?
O Drejer et al., (2005) define it as “thinking
about possible scenarios and strategy in a
creative manner that is relatively free from
existing boundaries”.
O Bonn, (2005) defines strategic thinking as “a
way of solving strategic problems that
combine a rational and convergent approach
with creative and divergent thought
processes”.
5/14/2023 86
What is strategic thinking?
O Garratt (1995) defined strategic thinking as a
process by which senior executives ‘‘can rise
above the daily managerial processes and
crises’’ to gain a different perspective of the
organization and its changing environments.
5/14/2023 87
What is strategic thinking?
O Porter (1987) states that strategic thinking is “the glue
that holds together the many systems and initiatives
within the company” he also views good strategic
planning as a contributor to strategic thinking.
O Heracleous (1998) suggests that strategic thinking and
strategic planning are interconnected and equally
significant for effective strategic management.
Thompson and Strickland (1999) stress that a well-
designed strategic management system facilitates
strategic thinking within the organization.
5/14/2023 88
Conclusion
O From all the previous definitions it can be
concluded that strategic thinking differs
from strategic management and strategic
planning, from the researcher point of view
strategic thinking can be defined as:
Engaging of the mind in the concepts and
theories of strategic management and
landing them on the reality of the
organization to achieve its long run goals.
5/14/2023 89
Strategic management, Strategic
planning and Strategic thinking
O Nowadays, Strategic Management is the father of
all branches of knowledge related to strategy
including strategic planning and strategic thinking
O Strategic Management can be defined as: a set of
managerial decisions and actions which determines
the performance of the organization in the long
run, it includes the following phases :
environmental scanning, strategy formulation,
strategy implementation, and strategy monitoring,
controlling and evaluation (Wheelen and Hunger,
2012) 5/14/2023 90
Strategic management, Strategic
planning and Strategic thinking
• Strategic planning can be considered as
strategic planning and can be defined as: the
development of long-range plans for the
effective management of environmental
opportunities and threats in light of
organizational strengths and weaknesses
(SWOT) (David, 2011; and Wheelen and
Hunger, 2012)
•
5/14/2023 91
Strategic management, Strategic
planning and Strategic thinking
O Mintzberg (1994) stated that ‘‘strategic
planning is not strategic thinking’’ (p. 107) and
suggested a clear distinction between strategic
thinking and strategic planning. In his view,
strategic planning focuses on analysis and
deals with the articulation, elaboration and
formalization of existing strategies.
5/14/2023 92
Strategic management, Strategic
planning and Strategic thinking
O Strategic thinking, on the other hand,
emphasizes synthesis, using intuition and
creativity to create ‘‘an integrated perspective
of the enterprise’’. He argued that each term
focuses on a different stage in the strategy
development process. In his view, strategic
planning is a process that should occur after
strategic thinking (Monnavarian et al, 2011).
5/14/2023 93
Strategic management, Strategic
planning and Strategic thinking
O From the researcher’s point of view strategic
thinking is a process that should occur in all
strategic management phases
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Attributes of strategic thinking
Liedtka (1998) posits five major attributes of strategic
thinking:
O 1. Strategic thinking reflects a systems or holistic view
that appreciates how the different parts of the
organization influence and affect each other as well as
their different environments.
O 2. Strategic thinking embodies a focus on intent. In
contrast with the traditional strategic planning
approach that focuses on creating a ‘‘fit’’ between
existing resources and emerging opportunities,
strategic intent intentionally creates a substantial
‘‘misfit’’between these. 5/14/2023 96
Attributes of strategic thinking
O 3. Strategic thinking involves thinking in time.
Strategic thinkers understand the interconnectivity of
past, present and future.
O 4. Fourth, it is hypothesis driven. Hypothesis
generating and testing is central to strategic thinking
activities. By asking the creative question ‘‘What if?’’
followed by the critical question ‘‘If . . . then . . .?’’
strategic thinking spans the analytic-intuitive
dichotomy that Mintzberg refers to in his definition
of thinking as synthesis and planning as analysis.
5/14/2023 97
Attributes of strategic thinking
O 5. Strategic thinking invokes the capacity to be
intelligently opportunistic, to recognize and take
advantage of newly emerging opportunities
O Napier and Albert (1990) referring to system thinking,
thinking about long-term profits rather than short-term
benefits, identifying repetitive patterns in the events,
choosing a person responsible for strategic thinking,
making use of past events to predict future, using past
knowledge to prepare appropriate model for decision
making.
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Attributes of strategic thinking
O Bonn (2005) emphasizing on process approach,
using cognitive concepts, ability in finding different
solutions for specific problems, interaction among
strategies at different levels and between different
units of organizations, understanding the dynamics
of internal and external environment, understanding
the situation of organizations within bigger systems,
visualizing future goals and most advantageous
future, knowing new competitive areas, capability
of integrating different ideas into a new and fresh
idea. 5/14/2023 99
Strategic thinking factors
O Creativity and attention to the past, the present and the future
O Organic structure organization
O Environment analysis
O Conflict management
O Awareness of the situation
O Futuristic approach
O Intelligence
O Diversified mind pattern
O Accountability
O Organizational climate and coordination
O Systematic thinking
O Process approach
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Peter Drucker’s strategic thinking
O Drucker tended to start by asking some basic
questions, which, despite their simplicity, are
often overlooked. Every senior manager, he said,
should be constantly asking ‘Do we want to be
in this business? Would we choose to enter this
sector now? Who are our customers? Where are
they? What do they want?’ In fact, all three of
his key strategies start with questioning.
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Peter Drucker’s strategic thinking
Zand phrases them like this:
O 1. Ask penetrating questions of people who understand
current and future realities so they can generate and
evaluate a creative set of strategic options.
O 2. Reframe the prevailing few in simple understandable
terms that enable a review of priorities and an
adjustment of actions to better adapt to the competitive
environment.
O 3. Question the assumptions underlying current views.
Consider alternative assumptions and diligently probe
their context and strategic implications
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Strategic thinking areas of research
O A Review on Leader's role in Creating a Culture that
Encourages Strategic Thinking.
O Improving strategic thinking: a multilevel approach.
O Leadership practices that encourage strategic
thinking
O Strategic thinking and decision making.
O Strategic thinking and knowledge management,
O The measurement of strategic thinking type for top
managers
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We can
benefit from
learning
about things
that LIMIT
strategic
thinking
5/14/2023 104
Lack of shared analysis can limit
strategic thinking
shared
vision/goals
historical
analysis
power
analysis
Problems and
causes
opportunities
and threats
5/14/2023 105
Power relationships can limit
strategic thinking
More
power
Less
Power
5/14/2023 106
Over-emphasis on only the long-
term or immediate challenges
Immediate
only
Long term
only
5/14/2023 107
Anchoring can limit strategic
thinking
O When faced with a choice,
we may ANCHOR on a
certain good outcome we
think will occur.
O It can be hard to remain
open to other options or
implications.
O Anchoring is often the
result of over-the-top
urgency to “just do
something.”
5/14/2023 108
Bias can limit strategic thinking
O We all have biases.
O We select for information
that supports our viewpoint
and experiences.
O We tend to disregard
information that doesn’t fit
our beliefs/values.
5/14/2023 109
What can I/we do?
SELF-REFLECTION
O What are my own strengths and weaknesses
related to strategic thinking?
O What adjustments can I make? How might I
improve my own strategic thinking skills and
habits?
O How can I provide more strategic leadership –
regardless of the position I hold?
5/14/2023 110
What can I/we do?
GROUP REFLECTION
O How can we (continue to) develop a shared
analysis among the staff and board?
O How can we (continue to) nurture a staff
culture that promotes strategic thinking?
O What skills/habits can we learn to improve our
ability to think and work strategically as a staff
team?
5/14/2023 111
Discussion
Choose a specific company and:
- Make short introduction about this company.
- What are the factors of this company for
environmental scanning?
5/14/2023 112
Strategic thinking
by Pham Hung Cuong
Chapter 4
Industry trends and analysis
5/14/2023
113
Questions
1. What are the main elements of environment?
2. What are the main elements in the basics?
3. What is the PESTEL analysis?
4. What are key issues in industry analysis?
5. What are determinants of the industry profit?
5/14/2023 114
Where to start?
O Analysis
O Understand existing situation
O Forecast likely / possible change
O Intended, deliberate, prescriptive model
5/14/2023 115
Analysing the main elements
of the environment
Environment
Resources
Purpose
Options
Options Choice
Options
5/14/2023 116
Analysing the strategic environment
The nine basic analytical tools
Company or
public sector
organisation
Environment
basics
Degree of
turbulence
PESTEL
analysis
Industry
life cycle
Key factors
for success
Five Forces
analysis
Four Links
analysis
Competitor
analysis
Customer
analysis
5/14/2023 117
Available tools/models
O The basics – market size, growth and share
O Environmental character – turbulence
O PESTEL
O Scenario planning
O Industry life cycle
O Key factors for success
O Five Forces Analysis
O Four Links Analysis
O Competitors
O Customer analysis 5/14/2023 118
The basics
O Market size
O How big is a big company going to be in this
industry?
O Growth
O Is it fast growing, maturing, declining?
O Are there one / several / many PLC’s here?
O What are the market shares of the key
competitors? Our market share?
5/14/2023 119
The basics (cont)
O For strategy:
O Often wider market or industry
O Can’t neglect the details
O Raises questions
O How many markets / segments do we / should
we compete in?
O How do the markets / segments connect?
O Does competing in one / some help us extend
into others?
5/14/2023 120
PESTEL analysis
O Political
O Economic
O Socio-cultural
O Technological
O Environmental
O Legal
5/14/2023 121
From environmental
to industry analysis
THE INDUSTRY
ENVIRONMENT
The
national/internat
ional economy
Technology
Government
and politics
Social
structure
Demographic
structure
The natural
environment
5/14/2023 122
The determinants of industry profit
O Consumer surplus and producer surplus
O Determinants to the firm profit:
- The value of the product to customers
- The intensity of competition
- The bargaining power of the producers relative
to their suppliers
5/14/2023 123
Analysing industry attractiveness
Porter’s Five Forces
5/14/2023 124
Applying industry analysis
• Forecasting industry profitability :
- How easy is it to enter the industry? (What are the
barriers?)
- How powerful are the suppliers and why?
- How powerful are the buyers and why?
- Are the substitutes a strong alternative?
- Are there many competitors? Is it easy to differentiate?
O Positioning the company
O Strategies to alter industry structure
5/14/2023 125
How do the forces interact on each
other? How do they affect
profitability?
5/14/2023 126
How do the forces interact on each
other? How do they affect
profitability?
5/14/2023 127
Create two future scenarios
Scenario one
What might
change the
forces?
How might they
change?
Scenario two
What might
change the
forces?
How might they
change?
How might these different
scenarios affect the industry
5/14/2023 128
Key issues in industry analysis
O Defining the industry
O Choosing an appropriate level of analysis
- Segmentation:
1. identify segmentation variables
2. construct a segmentation matrix
3. analyse segmentation attractiveness
4. identify key success factors in each segment
5. analyse the attraction of broad vs. narrow scope
5/14/2023 129
Key success factors
Analysis of demand
-Who are our customers?
-What do they want?
Analysis of competition
- What drives competition?
- What are the main dimensions
of competition?
-How intense is competition?
-How can we obtain a superior
competitive position?
What do customers want?
How does the firm survive
competition?
Prerequisite for Success
KEY SUCCESS FACTORS 5/14/2023 130
Discussion
Choose a specific company and:
- Make short introduction about this company.
- Analyse the main elements of environment of this
company by using PESTEL
5/14/2023 131
Strategic thinking
by Pham Hung Cuong
Chapter 5
Developing options
5/14/2023
132
Questions
1. What are common elements in successful
strategies?
2. What are the roles of resources and capabilities in
strategy formulation?
3. What is the link between resources, capabilities and
competitive advantage?
4. What are the features of cost leadership and
differentiation strategies?
5. How do you analyse resources and capability?
5/14/2023 133
Common elements
in successful strategies
Successful Strategy
Simple,
consistent, long-
term goals
Profound
understanding of
the competitive
environment
Objective
appraisal of
resources
Effective Implementation
5/14/2023 134
The role of resources and capabilities
in strategy formulation
O Basing strategy on resources and capabilities
(RBV)
THE FIRM
•Goals and values
•Resources and
capabilities
•Structure and systems
THE INDUSTRY
ENVIRONMENT
•Competitors
•Customers
•Suppliers
STRATEGY
The Environment-
Strategy Interface
The Firm-
Strategy Interface
5/14/2023 135
The link between resources,
capabilities and competitive advantage
RESOURCES
TANGIBLE
• Financial (cash,
securities,
borrowing capacity)
• Physical (plant
equipment, land,
mineral reserves)
INTANGIBLE
•Technology (patents,
copyrights, trade secrets)
• Reputation (brands,
relationships)
•Culture
HUMAN
• Skills/know-how
• Capacity for
communication
and collaboration
• Motivation
ORGANISATIONAL CAPABILITIES
STRATEGY
INDUSTRY KEY
SUCCESS FACTORS
COMPETITIVE
ADVANTAGE
5/14/2023 136
Identifying the organisation’s
capabilities
O Organisational capability, distinctive and core
competences
O Classifying capabilities
- Functional analysis
- Value chain analysis
O The nature of capabilities
- Process and routine
- Hierarchy of capabilities
5/14/2023 137
Function classification
of organisational capabilities
5/14/2023 138
Function classification
of organisational capabilities
Grant, R. and Jones, J. (2012) Foundations of Strategy , Wiley
5/14/2023 139
Value chain analysis
5/14/2023 140
Appraising the strategic importance
of resources and capabilities
5/14/2023 141
Resources and capability analysis
O Step 1: Identify the key resources and
capabilities
Step 2: Appraising resources and capabilities
- Assessing importance
- Assessing relative strengths
O Step 3: Developing strategy implications
- Exploiting key strengths
- Managing key weaknesses
5/14/2023 142
A framework for analysing resources
and capabilities
5/14/2023 143
The emergence
of competitive advantage
How does competitive
advantage emerge?
External sources of change e.g.:
•Changing customer demand
•Changing prices
•Technological change
Internal sources of
change
Resource
heterogeneity among
firms means different
impact
Some firms are faster
and more effective in
exploiting change
Some firms have
greater creative and
innovative capability
5/14/2023 144
Types of competitive advantage
– cost and differentiation
COMPETITVE
ADVANTAGE
COST ADVANTAGE
DIFFERENTIATION
ADVANTAGE
5/14/2023 145
Features of cost leadership and
differentiation strategies
5/14/2023 146
The drivers of cost advantage
5/14/2023 147
MIS that
supports fast
response
capabilities
Training to support
customer service
excellence
Unique product
futures. Fast new
product
development
Quality of
components
and materials
Defect-free
products.
Wide
variety
Fast
delivery.
Efficient
order
processing.
Building
brand
reputation
Customer technical
support. Consumer
credit. Availability of
spares.
Principal stages of value chain analysis
for differentiation advantage
5/14/2023 148
Porter’s generic strategies
COST
LEADERSHIP
DIFFERENTIATI
ON
FOCUS
Low cost Differentiation
SOURCES OF COMPETITITVE
ADVANTAGE
Industry-wide
Single segment
COMPETITIVE
SCOPE
5/14/2023 149
The strategy clock
(Bowman and Faulkner 1997)
5/14/2023 150
Discussion
Choose a specific company and:
- Make short introduction about this company.
- Analyse the link between resources, capability and
competitive advantage of this company
5/14/2023 151
Strategic thinking
by Pham Hung Cuong
Chapter 6
Evaluating options
5/14/2023
152
Questions
1. What are dynamics of industry structure?
2. What are stages of the life cycle?
3. What are strategies at different stages of the life
cycle?
4. What are the main bases of segmentation?
5. What is the evolution of industry structure
and competition over the life cycle?
5/14/2023 153
The dynamics of industry structure
5/14/2023 154
The dynamics of industry structure
Source: Based on Figure 2.4 in Hill and Jones (2008).
Source: Based on Figure 2.4 in Hill and Jones (2008).
5/14/2023 155
Strategy at different stages
of the life cycle
O The introduction phase – born global
companies, de novo entrants
O The growth phase – manufacturing capability
O The maturity phase – cost efficiency,
developing markets entry strategies
O The decline phase – capacity and output
5/14/2023 156
Evaluating options for growth
O PESTEL
O Strategic Groups
O Market Segments
O Blue Ocean Thinking
O Life Cycle Analysis
5/14/2023 157
Example of strategic group
5/14/2023 158
Market segments
5/14/2023 159
The evolution of industry structure
and competition over the life cycle
5/14/2023 160
Discussion
Choose a specific company and:
- Make short introduction about this company.
- Analyse strategies at different stages of the life cycle
of this company
5/14/2023 161
Strategic thinking
by Pham Hung Cuong
Chapter 7
Innovation and strategic thinking
in changing environment
5/14/2023
162
Questions
1. What are skills of strategic thinking?
2. What is the process of creativity?
3. What is the process of strategic thinking?
4. What is the innovation?
5. What is the creativity?
5/14/2023 163
Strategic thinking skills
O Your title makes you manager. People decide if
you are a leader.
O Five keys to being a great leader:
O Think strategically.
O Results oriented.
O Adapt and improve.
O Building strong teams.
O Inspire.
O Honesty & Integrity. 5/14/2023 164
Strategic thinking skills activities
O Permanent and rapid change of business environment and broad range
of information available Managers need a strategic mindset to
be successful leaders.
O Activities determining success:
O Think Strategically: Consider broad range of internal and external
factors when solving problems and making decisions with focus on
long term business perspective.
O Analyze Issues: Gather relevant information systematically, grasp
complexities and perceive relationships among problems to bring
clarity into issues solving.
O Use Sound Judgement: Make timely and sound decisions.
O Innovate: Encourage flexibility and creativity to generate new ideas
to challenge status quo.
5/14/2023 165
Think and act strategically motto
“Your time is limited, don’t waste it living someone else’s
life. Don’t be trapped by dogma, which is living the result
of other people’s thinking.”
Steve Jobs
5/14/2023 166
Think and act strategically
long-term focus
5/14/2023 167
Think and act strategically
developing strategic mindset
O Strategic planning is an event, while strategic thinking is a
process and an approach.
O Part 1: Developing a Strategic Mindset:
O Evaluating your strategic-thinking skills.
O Enhancing your strategic thinking.
O Recognizing the broad implications of issues.
O Developing a strategic perspective of your own area.
O Seeing the relationships.
O Analyzing factors outside the business.
5/14/2023 168
Think and act strategically
applying strategic thinking skills
O Successful leaders focus the energy of their organization on
the initiatives that will have the greatest strategic impact.
O Part 2: Applying strategic-thinking skills:
O Identify key strategic opportunities.
O Capitalizing on strategic opportunities.
O Developing strategic alliances to increase competitive
advantage.
5/14/2023 169
Innovation and creativity motto
“The best way to predict the future is to create it.”
Peter Drucker
5/14/2023 170
Innovation and creativity
5/14/2023 171
Innovation and creativity
5/14/2023 172
Innovation and creativity
innovation in business
O The ability to generate creative solutions is essential
in business to survive and success depends on how
quickly it can respond to a changing world.
O Creativity involves not only coming up with original
and innovative solutions, but also making existing
solutions better.
O Implement the innovative solutions quickly.
5/14/2023 173
Innovation and creativity
developing personal creativity
O Creativity is a process that requries personal commitment
and effort.
O Part 1: Developing personal creativity:
O Increasing your mental flexibility
O Determinig when to use creative thinking
O Approaching problems with curiosity and open-
mindedness
O Making use of existing information
O Generating innovative ideas and solutions
O Thinking positively when faced with obstacles
5/14/2023 174
Innovation and creativity
encouraging innovation in others
O Increasing the innovation of your people to improve the
quantity and quality of the creative ideas.
O Part 2: Encouraging innovation in others:
O Encouraging Innovation in your department
O Using logical and intuitive approaches
O Brainstorming
O Stimulating creative ideas in others
O Challenging “the way it has always been done”
5/14/2023 175
Discussion
Choose a specific company and:
- Make short introduction about this company.
- Analyse the process of the strategic thinking of this
company
5/14/2023 176
PROJECT
Choose a specific company:
 Introduce the company chosen
 Analyse key issues in industry
 Analyse the main elements of the environment
(PESTEL)
 Analyse the link between resources, capabilities and
competitive advantage
 Analyse features of this company’s strategy
REQUIREMENTS:
O Hard-copy and solf-copy
O 3500 – 4000 words
O Submit to teacher-in-charge by…
5/14/2023 177

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Strategic thingking 2020.pptx

  • 1. Strategic thinking by Pham Hung Cuong 5/14/2023 1
  • 2. Objectives O Demonstrate knowledge of the specific tools and frameworks of strategy as it relates to the current competitive strategy of an organization and its operating environment O Select and apply strategy tools and frameworks with which to produce an analysis of the strategic issues facing an organization and an evaluation of the appropriateness of its current strategy. 5/14/2023 2
  • 3. References Essential Textbook O Foundations of Strategy, 2012, Robert M Grant & Judith Jordan. Wiley Additional Texts O Exploring Strategy, 9th edition, 2011, Gerry Johnson, Richard Whittington, Kevan Scholes, Prentice Hall O Good Strategy Bad Strategy. The Difference and Why it Matters. 2011. Richard Rumelt. Palgrave O Understanding Michael Porter. Essential Guide to Competition and Strategy. 2012. Joan Magretta. Harvard Business School Press O Playing to win. How Strategy Really Works. 2013. A.G. Lafley and Roger L. Martin. Harvard Business Review Press. 5/14/2023 3
  • 4. Evaluation O Attendance: 10% O Mid-term exam: 30% O Final paper: 60% 5/14/2023 4
  • 5. Rules required inside class Do not lay your head on the desk, fall asleep Do not do private things Keep your mobile phones silent Raise questions if you do not understand 5/14/2023 5
  • 6. Strategic thinking by Pham Hung Cuong Chapter 1 What is strategy? 5/14/2023 6
  • 7. Questions 1. What is strategy? 2. What are roles of strategy in success? 3. How do you describe a firm’s strategy? 4. Whose interests should be prioritized? 5. What are considerations for analysing competition? 5/14/2023 7
  • 8. What is strategy? O Some elements/characteristics O Long term O Competitive advantage O Planning O Distinctiveness O “Big” decisions OSignificant resources OImportant ONot easily reversible 5/14/2023 8
  • 9. What is strategy? O Where to compete? O Which businesses should we be in? O A corporate strategy decision O How to compete? O How do we create / build / defend a competitive advantage? O A competitive strategy / business strategy decision O Interlinked but, in principle, distinct 5/14/2023 9
  • 10. Strategy is about choice 5/14/2023 10
  • 11. The role of strategy in success Common elements in successful strategies Successful Strategy Simple, consistent, long- term goals Profound understanding of the competitive environment Objective appraisal of resources Effective Implementation 5/14/2023 11
  • 12. Strategy today O What is strategy? RATE OF RETURN ABOVE THE COST OF CAPITAL How do we make money? INDUSTRY ATRACTIVENESS Which industries should we be in? COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE How should we compete? CORPORA TE STRATEGY BUSINESS STRATEGY 5/14/2023 12
  • 13. How do we describe a firm’s strategy? Static Where are we competing? How are we competing? Dynamic What do we want to become? What do we want to achieve? How will we get here? 5/14/2023 13
  • 14. How do we identify a firm’s strategy? O The mission statement – ‘Why we exist?’ O A statement of principles and values – ‘What we believe in and how we will behave’ O The vision statement – ‘What we want to be’ O The strategy statement – ‘What our competitive game plan will be’ O Where is the company investing its money? O What technologies is the company developing? O What new products have been released? O Intended vs. released vs. emergent strategy 5/14/2023 14
  • 15. Whose interests should be prioritised? O Shareholders vs. stakeholders O Profit and purpose O The debate over CSR 5/14/2023 15
  • 16. Developing analytical tools • The foundations of mainstream strategy lie in analysis of competition and firms’ quest to outperform their rivals. • Four key considerations: - Competition - The market for corporate control - Convergence of stakeholder interests - Simplicity 5/14/2023 16
  • 17. Strategy analysis THE FIRM •Goals and values •Resources and capabilities •Structure and systems THE INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT •Competitors •Customers •Suppliers STRATEGY 5/14/2023 17
  • 18. What is strategy? A plan to achieve our goals. Exists at multiple levels – all linked. Helps us make wise choices as conditions change. As conditions change, the plan itself evolves. 5/14/2023 18
  • 19. Discussion Choose a specific company and: - Make short introduction about this company. - Analyse its biggest competitor. 5/14/2023 19
  • 20. Strategic thinking by Pham Hung Cuong Chapter 2 What is Strategic Thinking? 5/14/2023 20
  • 21. Questions 1. What is Strategic thinking? 2. What are different between strategic thinking and strategic planning? 3. What are different between reactive future approach and proactive future approach? 4. How do you get started with strategic thinking? 5. What is aim of strategic thinking? 5/14/2023 21
  • 22. What is strategic thinking? • “At this point, there is no generally accepted definition of the term, no common agreement as to its role or importance, and no standardized list of key competencies of strategic thinkers.” Wikipedia 5/14/2023 22
  • 23. What is strategic thinking? Strategic thinking is learned, not innate. Strategic thinking cannot be taught. 5/14/2023 23
  • 24. What is strategic thinking? The ability to see what is and what could be – and make choices that lead to desired outcomes. Analysis Vision/Goals Seeing systems 5/14/2023 24
  • 25. What’s your definition of strategic thinking? 5/14/2023 25
  • 26. From the literature • “The way in which people in an organization think about, assess, view and create the future for themselves and their associates. It is more than responding to both day-to-day as well as long-term problems, opportunities and new realities; it is creating tomorrow. It is not reactive, but proactive… Strategic thinking always involves change, and often, profound personal change.” Kaufman et al (2003: 40-41) • A “cognitive process … that precedes strategic planning or action, whereby an individual contemplates the future development of the organisation whilst considering its attributes, its past and present and the external realities within which it operates.” Tavakoli and Lawton (2005: 6) 5/14/2023 26
  • 27. Strategic thinking is identifying, imagining and understanding possible future operating environments for your organization. You can use that knowledge to expand your thinking about your potential strategic options… 5/14/2023 27
  • 28. …to position your organization effectively in the external environment, 5/14/2023 28
  • 29. …in order to make better informed decisions about action to take today. 5/14/2023 29
  • 30. • Thinking about the future is using your innate foresight capacity. • In a strategy context, for an organisation, it’s about building a strategic foresight capacity. 5/14/2023 30
  • 31. Foresight? • The ability to take a forward view and use the insights gained in organisationally useful ways. 5/14/2023 31
  • 32. Current approaches to strategic thinking Traditional Trying Futures Ready 5/14/2023 32
  • 34. Strategic Thinking Strategic Planning Only the shape of the future can be predicted Future is predictable and specifiable in detail Relies on self-reference – a sense of strategic intent and purpose embedded in the minds of managers that guides their choices Asserts control through measurement Requires that managers have an understanding of the larger system Assumes that the manager below need only to know his or her own role well Sees strategy and change as inescapably linked and assumes that finding new strategic options and implementing them successfully is harder and more important than evaluating them Assumes that the challenge of setting strategic direction is primarily analytic Sees the planning process itself as a critical value-adding element Focus on the creation of the plan as the ultimate object 5/14/2023 34
  • 35. Purpose Thought Process Strategic Thinking Discovernovel, imaginative strategies that can re-write the rules of the competitive game; and to envision potential futures; significantly different from the present. Synthetic Divergent Creative Strategic Planning Operationalise strategies developed through strategic thinking, and to support the strategic thinking process. Analytical Convergent Conventional 5/14/2023 35
  • 36. • Longterm Uncertain Divergent • Incomplete • Beyond linear • Disrupting alignment 5/14/2023 36
  • 37. • Short term • Logical • Convergent • Pragmatic • Deductive • Creating • Alignment 5/14/2023 37
  • 38. • Current strategy processes tend to focus on the plan as the major outcome, rather than a shared understanding of your organization's preferred future to inform action today. 5/14/2023 38
  • 40. Thinktomorrow is going to be more of today 5/14/2023 40
  • 42. Usually don’t explore the long term future 5/14/2023 42
  • 45. Downplay or dismiss staff beliefs, hopes and fears about the future 5/14/2023 45
  • 46. Mintzberg (1994) • “Strategic planning often spoils strategic thinking, causing managers to confuse real vision with the manipulation of numbers…”, and that “…the most successful strategies are visions, not plans”. Strategic planning then is better characterised as “strategic programming, the articulation and elaboration of strategies, or visions, that already exist”. 5/14/2023 46
  • 48. Liedtka (1998) • Traditional strategic planning processes as having “choked initiative and favoured incremental over substantive change. They have emphasized analytics and extrapolation rather than creativity and invention….They have lulled us into complacency with their comforting illusion of certainty in what is in reality a hopelessly uncertain world.” 5/14/2023 48
  • 49. But…Lietdka (1998) • “There is little in the notion of planning itself that undermines strategic thinking; rather, it is the processes through which we have operationalized planning, and the assumptions that we have made about how and who ought to plan, that have gotten us into trouble. We have designed planning systems where participation in formulation is limited to senior management, while the rest of the organization waits to implement.” 5/14/2023 49
  • 50. • Current strategy processes live in the pragmatic futures realm. • Working within the existing paradigm, making it better, but not challenging it. • We call it „strategic planning‟. • Beyond strategic planning – to strategy development and implementation. • Moving into the progressive futures realm, where we challenge the current paradigm and re-interpret how we do business to meet the challenges of the future 5/14/2023 50
  • 51. Moving from pragmatic to progressive approaches requires a strong focus on building a high quality strategic thinking capacity in your organisation. 5/14/2023 51
  • 52. We can't solve problemsby using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them. 5/14/2023 52
  • 53. Reactive Future Approach Proactive Future Approach What has happened? What is happening? What caused it to happen? What is driving the trends that will influence our future? What are our alternative futures? How do we respond? What ought we do today? What would be the long term consequences of our actions today be? What will we do? What will we do? After the event Anticipating the event 5/14/2023 53
  • 54. The gap between reactive and proactive approaches is bridged by making time for strategic thinking. 5/14/2023 54
  • 55. So how do we get startedwith strategic thinking? 5/14/2023 55
  • 56. Inputs Analysis Interpretation “what is happening out there?” “what seems to be happening?” “what‟s really happening?” Prospection “what might happen?” Outputs “what might we need to do?” Strategy “what will we do?” “how will we do it?” Foresight 5/14/2023 56
  • 57. Plan and Do Thinking Envision a preferred future Identify Drivers of Change External Quantitative Tangible S e en Internal Qualitative Intangible Unseen Planning Critique Drivers for Relevance Imagine what’s possible 5/14/2023 57
  • 58. • The aim of strategic thinking is to understand - as best we can - the long term context of our decisions today so that we make those decisions as wise and as robust as is possible. 5/14/2023 58
  • 59. Discussion Choose a specific company and: - Make short introduction about this company. - How does this company get started with strategic thinking? 5/14/2023 59
  • 60. Strategic thinking by Pham Hung Cuong Chapter 3 Some strategic thinking tools 5/14/2023 60
  • 61. Questions 1. What are the factors of internal environmental scanning? 2. What are the factors of external environmental scanning? 3. What is the biggest challenge to strategic thinking? 4. What are attributes of strategic thinking? 5. What are factors of strategic thinking? 5/14/2023 61
  • 62. Inputs Analysis Interpretation “what is happening out there?” “what seems to be happening?” “what‟s really happening?” Prospection “what might happen?” Outputs “what might we need to do?” Strategy “what will we do?” “how will we do it?” Foresight 5/14/2023 62
  • 63. Inputs • Environmental Scanning • Provides the raw information to inform your strategic thinking. • Both internal and external to your organisation. 5/14/2023 63
  • 64. Where to scan Global, multiple dispersed cases,trends and megatrends Newspapers, magazines,websites, journals,blogs Government Institutions LateMajority Numberof cases; degreeof Scientists,artists, radicals,mystics Mainstream Laggards public awareness Fewcases, local focus EmergingIssues Innovators LateAdopters Trends Early adopters Today Time Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years 5/14/2023 64
  • 65. Analysis • Looking for patterns and themes relevant for your organisation. • Trend analysis • Emerging Issues Analysis • Forecasting • Delphi 5/14/2023 65
  • 66. Interpretation • System structure and dynamics – whose beliefs are dominant? • What‟s driving the trends? And what does it mean for us? • How will they develop? • Futures Wheel • Cross Impact Analysis • Causal Layered Analysis 5/14/2023 66
  • 67. Prospection • How will the trends evolve over the next 10-20 years? • How might we respond? What are our options? • Scenario planning • Visioning • Backcasting 5/14/2023 67
  • 69. The biggest challenge to strategic thinking 5/14/2023 69
  • 71. • The pressures of his job drive the manager to be superficial in his actions - to overload himself with work, encourage interruption, respond quickly to every stimulus, seek the tangible and avoid the abstract, makes decisions in small increments, and do everything abruptly. Henry Mintzberg. The Manager‟s Job: Folklore or Fact, HBR, 1975 5/14/2023 71
  • 72. • “Managers who get caught in the trap of overwhelming demands become prisoners of routine. They do not have time to notice opportunities. Their habituated work prevents them from taking the first necessary step toward harnessing willpower: developing the capacity to dream an idea into existence and transforming it into a concrete existence.” Heike Bruch & Sumantra Ghoshal, A Bias for Action: How Effective Managers Harness Their Willpower, Achieve Results, and Stop Wasting Time, HBSP, 2004 5/14/2023 72
  • 73. To think strategically, you have to move beyond busy. 5/14/2023 73
  • 75. • Scan often, scan well 5/14/2023 75
  • 76. • Invest more time in doing this… 5/14/2023 76
  • 77. • …as well as this. 5/14/2023 77
  • 78. Think long term, act today 5/14/2023 78
  • 80. What this means Individual Consciousness Individuals in Action Critical Mass of Staff Strategic Foresight Capacity Values/Beliefs New models New processes 5/14/2023 80
  • 81. We think strategically to avoid havingthis perspective on the future… 5/14/2023 81
  • 82. Key questions that can help O What is our goal/purpose? O What key problems, causes and solutions do we exist to address? O What are past, current and possible future trends? O What are the key opportunities and threats we face? (Where is greatest leverage? Where is greatest risk?) O What will it take? What are possible course of action? O What are the implications of these choices? O What criteria will we use to choose and evaluate a course of action? O How does our plan intersect with other goals/plans? 5/14/2023 82
  • 83. What is strategic thinking? O Reviewing the literature related to strategic management, points out that there is no agreement on definition of strategic thinking. A number of authors have used strategic thinking interchangeably with other concepts such as strategic planning or strategic management (Monnavarian et al, 2011). 5/14/2023 83
  • 84. What is strategic thinking O Strategic thinking has been investigated in both the management and psychological literature with the management literature concentrating on the process of strategic thinking and making strategic decisions (Mintzberg, 1994; Drejer et al., 2005) whereas the psychological literature has concentrated on factors affecting strategic thinking and decision making (Hambrick and Mason, 2001; Pant, 1998). 5/14/2023 84
  • 85. What is strategic thinking? O According to the management approach strategic thinking involves two distinct thought processes: planning and thinking. Planning concerns analysis, this involves establishing and formalizing systems and procedures whereas thinking involves synthesis encouraging intuitive, innovative and creative thinking at all levels of the organization (Mintzberg, 1994). 5/14/2023 85
  • 86. What is strategic thinking? O Drejer et al., (2005) define it as “thinking about possible scenarios and strategy in a creative manner that is relatively free from existing boundaries”. O Bonn, (2005) defines strategic thinking as “a way of solving strategic problems that combine a rational and convergent approach with creative and divergent thought processes”. 5/14/2023 86
  • 87. What is strategic thinking? O Garratt (1995) defined strategic thinking as a process by which senior executives ‘‘can rise above the daily managerial processes and crises’’ to gain a different perspective of the organization and its changing environments. 5/14/2023 87
  • 88. What is strategic thinking? O Porter (1987) states that strategic thinking is “the glue that holds together the many systems and initiatives within the company” he also views good strategic planning as a contributor to strategic thinking. O Heracleous (1998) suggests that strategic thinking and strategic planning are interconnected and equally significant for effective strategic management. Thompson and Strickland (1999) stress that a well- designed strategic management system facilitates strategic thinking within the organization. 5/14/2023 88
  • 89. Conclusion O From all the previous definitions it can be concluded that strategic thinking differs from strategic management and strategic planning, from the researcher point of view strategic thinking can be defined as: Engaging of the mind in the concepts and theories of strategic management and landing them on the reality of the organization to achieve its long run goals. 5/14/2023 89
  • 90. Strategic management, Strategic planning and Strategic thinking O Nowadays, Strategic Management is the father of all branches of knowledge related to strategy including strategic planning and strategic thinking O Strategic Management can be defined as: a set of managerial decisions and actions which determines the performance of the organization in the long run, it includes the following phases : environmental scanning, strategy formulation, strategy implementation, and strategy monitoring, controlling and evaluation (Wheelen and Hunger, 2012) 5/14/2023 90
  • 91. Strategic management, Strategic planning and Strategic thinking • Strategic planning can be considered as strategic planning and can be defined as: the development of long-range plans for the effective management of environmental opportunities and threats in light of organizational strengths and weaknesses (SWOT) (David, 2011; and Wheelen and Hunger, 2012) • 5/14/2023 91
  • 92. Strategic management, Strategic planning and Strategic thinking O Mintzberg (1994) stated that ‘‘strategic planning is not strategic thinking’’ (p. 107) and suggested a clear distinction between strategic thinking and strategic planning. In his view, strategic planning focuses on analysis and deals with the articulation, elaboration and formalization of existing strategies. 5/14/2023 92
  • 93. Strategic management, Strategic planning and Strategic thinking O Strategic thinking, on the other hand, emphasizes synthesis, using intuition and creativity to create ‘‘an integrated perspective of the enterprise’’. He argued that each term focuses on a different stage in the strategy development process. In his view, strategic planning is a process that should occur after strategic thinking (Monnavarian et al, 2011). 5/14/2023 93
  • 94. Strategic management, Strategic planning and Strategic thinking O From the researcher’s point of view strategic thinking is a process that should occur in all strategic management phases 5/14/2023 94
  • 96. Attributes of strategic thinking Liedtka (1998) posits five major attributes of strategic thinking: O 1. Strategic thinking reflects a systems or holistic view that appreciates how the different parts of the organization influence and affect each other as well as their different environments. O 2. Strategic thinking embodies a focus on intent. In contrast with the traditional strategic planning approach that focuses on creating a ‘‘fit’’ between existing resources and emerging opportunities, strategic intent intentionally creates a substantial ‘‘misfit’’between these. 5/14/2023 96
  • 97. Attributes of strategic thinking O 3. Strategic thinking involves thinking in time. Strategic thinkers understand the interconnectivity of past, present and future. O 4. Fourth, it is hypothesis driven. Hypothesis generating and testing is central to strategic thinking activities. By asking the creative question ‘‘What if?’’ followed by the critical question ‘‘If . . . then . . .?’’ strategic thinking spans the analytic-intuitive dichotomy that Mintzberg refers to in his definition of thinking as synthesis and planning as analysis. 5/14/2023 97
  • 98. Attributes of strategic thinking O 5. Strategic thinking invokes the capacity to be intelligently opportunistic, to recognize and take advantage of newly emerging opportunities O Napier and Albert (1990) referring to system thinking, thinking about long-term profits rather than short-term benefits, identifying repetitive patterns in the events, choosing a person responsible for strategic thinking, making use of past events to predict future, using past knowledge to prepare appropriate model for decision making. 5/14/2023 98
  • 99. Attributes of strategic thinking O Bonn (2005) emphasizing on process approach, using cognitive concepts, ability in finding different solutions for specific problems, interaction among strategies at different levels and between different units of organizations, understanding the dynamics of internal and external environment, understanding the situation of organizations within bigger systems, visualizing future goals and most advantageous future, knowing new competitive areas, capability of integrating different ideas into a new and fresh idea. 5/14/2023 99
  • 100. Strategic thinking factors O Creativity and attention to the past, the present and the future O Organic structure organization O Environment analysis O Conflict management O Awareness of the situation O Futuristic approach O Intelligence O Diversified mind pattern O Accountability O Organizational climate and coordination O Systematic thinking O Process approach 5/14/2023 100
  • 101. Peter Drucker’s strategic thinking O Drucker tended to start by asking some basic questions, which, despite their simplicity, are often overlooked. Every senior manager, he said, should be constantly asking ‘Do we want to be in this business? Would we choose to enter this sector now? Who are our customers? Where are they? What do they want?’ In fact, all three of his key strategies start with questioning. 5/14/2023 101
  • 102. Peter Drucker’s strategic thinking Zand phrases them like this: O 1. Ask penetrating questions of people who understand current and future realities so they can generate and evaluate a creative set of strategic options. O 2. Reframe the prevailing few in simple understandable terms that enable a review of priorities and an adjustment of actions to better adapt to the competitive environment. O 3. Question the assumptions underlying current views. Consider alternative assumptions and diligently probe their context and strategic implications 5/14/2023 102
  • 103. Strategic thinking areas of research O A Review on Leader's role in Creating a Culture that Encourages Strategic Thinking. O Improving strategic thinking: a multilevel approach. O Leadership practices that encourage strategic thinking O Strategic thinking and decision making. O Strategic thinking and knowledge management, O The measurement of strategic thinking type for top managers 5/14/2023 103
  • 104. We can benefit from learning about things that LIMIT strategic thinking 5/14/2023 104
  • 105. Lack of shared analysis can limit strategic thinking shared vision/goals historical analysis power analysis Problems and causes opportunities and threats 5/14/2023 105
  • 106. Power relationships can limit strategic thinking More power Less Power 5/14/2023 106
  • 107. Over-emphasis on only the long- term or immediate challenges Immediate only Long term only 5/14/2023 107
  • 108. Anchoring can limit strategic thinking O When faced with a choice, we may ANCHOR on a certain good outcome we think will occur. O It can be hard to remain open to other options or implications. O Anchoring is often the result of over-the-top urgency to “just do something.” 5/14/2023 108
  • 109. Bias can limit strategic thinking O We all have biases. O We select for information that supports our viewpoint and experiences. O We tend to disregard information that doesn’t fit our beliefs/values. 5/14/2023 109
  • 110. What can I/we do? SELF-REFLECTION O What are my own strengths and weaknesses related to strategic thinking? O What adjustments can I make? How might I improve my own strategic thinking skills and habits? O How can I provide more strategic leadership – regardless of the position I hold? 5/14/2023 110
  • 111. What can I/we do? GROUP REFLECTION O How can we (continue to) develop a shared analysis among the staff and board? O How can we (continue to) nurture a staff culture that promotes strategic thinking? O What skills/habits can we learn to improve our ability to think and work strategically as a staff team? 5/14/2023 111
  • 112. Discussion Choose a specific company and: - Make short introduction about this company. - What are the factors of this company for environmental scanning? 5/14/2023 112
  • 113. Strategic thinking by Pham Hung Cuong Chapter 4 Industry trends and analysis 5/14/2023 113
  • 114. Questions 1. What are the main elements of environment? 2. What are the main elements in the basics? 3. What is the PESTEL analysis? 4. What are key issues in industry analysis? 5. What are determinants of the industry profit? 5/14/2023 114
  • 115. Where to start? O Analysis O Understand existing situation O Forecast likely / possible change O Intended, deliberate, prescriptive model 5/14/2023 115
  • 116. Analysing the main elements of the environment Environment Resources Purpose Options Options Choice Options 5/14/2023 116
  • 117. Analysing the strategic environment The nine basic analytical tools Company or public sector organisation Environment basics Degree of turbulence PESTEL analysis Industry life cycle Key factors for success Five Forces analysis Four Links analysis Competitor analysis Customer analysis 5/14/2023 117
  • 118. Available tools/models O The basics – market size, growth and share O Environmental character – turbulence O PESTEL O Scenario planning O Industry life cycle O Key factors for success O Five Forces Analysis O Four Links Analysis O Competitors O Customer analysis 5/14/2023 118
  • 119. The basics O Market size O How big is a big company going to be in this industry? O Growth O Is it fast growing, maturing, declining? O Are there one / several / many PLC’s here? O What are the market shares of the key competitors? Our market share? 5/14/2023 119
  • 120. The basics (cont) O For strategy: O Often wider market or industry O Can’t neglect the details O Raises questions O How many markets / segments do we / should we compete in? O How do the markets / segments connect? O Does competing in one / some help us extend into others? 5/14/2023 120
  • 121. PESTEL analysis O Political O Economic O Socio-cultural O Technological O Environmental O Legal 5/14/2023 121
  • 122. From environmental to industry analysis THE INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT The national/internat ional economy Technology Government and politics Social structure Demographic structure The natural environment 5/14/2023 122
  • 123. The determinants of industry profit O Consumer surplus and producer surplus O Determinants to the firm profit: - The value of the product to customers - The intensity of competition - The bargaining power of the producers relative to their suppliers 5/14/2023 123
  • 125. Applying industry analysis • Forecasting industry profitability : - How easy is it to enter the industry? (What are the barriers?) - How powerful are the suppliers and why? - How powerful are the buyers and why? - Are the substitutes a strong alternative? - Are there many competitors? Is it easy to differentiate? O Positioning the company O Strategies to alter industry structure 5/14/2023 125
  • 126. How do the forces interact on each other? How do they affect profitability? 5/14/2023 126
  • 127. How do the forces interact on each other? How do they affect profitability? 5/14/2023 127
  • 128. Create two future scenarios Scenario one What might change the forces? How might they change? Scenario two What might change the forces? How might they change? How might these different scenarios affect the industry 5/14/2023 128
  • 129. Key issues in industry analysis O Defining the industry O Choosing an appropriate level of analysis - Segmentation: 1. identify segmentation variables 2. construct a segmentation matrix 3. analyse segmentation attractiveness 4. identify key success factors in each segment 5. analyse the attraction of broad vs. narrow scope 5/14/2023 129
  • 130. Key success factors Analysis of demand -Who are our customers? -What do they want? Analysis of competition - What drives competition? - What are the main dimensions of competition? -How intense is competition? -How can we obtain a superior competitive position? What do customers want? How does the firm survive competition? Prerequisite for Success KEY SUCCESS FACTORS 5/14/2023 130
  • 131. Discussion Choose a specific company and: - Make short introduction about this company. - Analyse the main elements of environment of this company by using PESTEL 5/14/2023 131
  • 132. Strategic thinking by Pham Hung Cuong Chapter 5 Developing options 5/14/2023 132
  • 133. Questions 1. What are common elements in successful strategies? 2. What are the roles of resources and capabilities in strategy formulation? 3. What is the link between resources, capabilities and competitive advantage? 4. What are the features of cost leadership and differentiation strategies? 5. How do you analyse resources and capability? 5/14/2023 133
  • 134. Common elements in successful strategies Successful Strategy Simple, consistent, long- term goals Profound understanding of the competitive environment Objective appraisal of resources Effective Implementation 5/14/2023 134
  • 135. The role of resources and capabilities in strategy formulation O Basing strategy on resources and capabilities (RBV) THE FIRM •Goals and values •Resources and capabilities •Structure and systems THE INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT •Competitors •Customers •Suppliers STRATEGY The Environment- Strategy Interface The Firm- Strategy Interface 5/14/2023 135
  • 136. The link between resources, capabilities and competitive advantage RESOURCES TANGIBLE • Financial (cash, securities, borrowing capacity) • Physical (plant equipment, land, mineral reserves) INTANGIBLE •Technology (patents, copyrights, trade secrets) • Reputation (brands, relationships) •Culture HUMAN • Skills/know-how • Capacity for communication and collaboration • Motivation ORGANISATIONAL CAPABILITIES STRATEGY INDUSTRY KEY SUCCESS FACTORS COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE 5/14/2023 136
  • 137. Identifying the organisation’s capabilities O Organisational capability, distinctive and core competences O Classifying capabilities - Functional analysis - Value chain analysis O The nature of capabilities - Process and routine - Hierarchy of capabilities 5/14/2023 137
  • 138. Function classification of organisational capabilities 5/14/2023 138
  • 139. Function classification of organisational capabilities Grant, R. and Jones, J. (2012) Foundations of Strategy , Wiley 5/14/2023 139
  • 141. Appraising the strategic importance of resources and capabilities 5/14/2023 141
  • 142. Resources and capability analysis O Step 1: Identify the key resources and capabilities Step 2: Appraising resources and capabilities - Assessing importance - Assessing relative strengths O Step 3: Developing strategy implications - Exploiting key strengths - Managing key weaknesses 5/14/2023 142
  • 143. A framework for analysing resources and capabilities 5/14/2023 143
  • 144. The emergence of competitive advantage How does competitive advantage emerge? External sources of change e.g.: •Changing customer demand •Changing prices •Technological change Internal sources of change Resource heterogeneity among firms means different impact Some firms are faster and more effective in exploiting change Some firms have greater creative and innovative capability 5/14/2023 144
  • 145. Types of competitive advantage – cost and differentiation COMPETITVE ADVANTAGE COST ADVANTAGE DIFFERENTIATION ADVANTAGE 5/14/2023 145
  • 146. Features of cost leadership and differentiation strategies 5/14/2023 146
  • 147. The drivers of cost advantage 5/14/2023 147
  • 148. MIS that supports fast response capabilities Training to support customer service excellence Unique product futures. Fast new product development Quality of components and materials Defect-free products. Wide variety Fast delivery. Efficient order processing. Building brand reputation Customer technical support. Consumer credit. Availability of spares. Principal stages of value chain analysis for differentiation advantage 5/14/2023 148
  • 149. Porter’s generic strategies COST LEADERSHIP DIFFERENTIATI ON FOCUS Low cost Differentiation SOURCES OF COMPETITITVE ADVANTAGE Industry-wide Single segment COMPETITIVE SCOPE 5/14/2023 149
  • 150. The strategy clock (Bowman and Faulkner 1997) 5/14/2023 150
  • 151. Discussion Choose a specific company and: - Make short introduction about this company. - Analyse the link between resources, capability and competitive advantage of this company 5/14/2023 151
  • 152. Strategic thinking by Pham Hung Cuong Chapter 6 Evaluating options 5/14/2023 152
  • 153. Questions 1. What are dynamics of industry structure? 2. What are stages of the life cycle? 3. What are strategies at different stages of the life cycle? 4. What are the main bases of segmentation? 5. What is the evolution of industry structure and competition over the life cycle? 5/14/2023 153
  • 154. The dynamics of industry structure 5/14/2023 154
  • 155. The dynamics of industry structure Source: Based on Figure 2.4 in Hill and Jones (2008). Source: Based on Figure 2.4 in Hill and Jones (2008). 5/14/2023 155
  • 156. Strategy at different stages of the life cycle O The introduction phase – born global companies, de novo entrants O The growth phase – manufacturing capability O The maturity phase – cost efficiency, developing markets entry strategies O The decline phase – capacity and output 5/14/2023 156
  • 157. Evaluating options for growth O PESTEL O Strategic Groups O Market Segments O Blue Ocean Thinking O Life Cycle Analysis 5/14/2023 157
  • 158. Example of strategic group 5/14/2023 158
  • 160. The evolution of industry structure and competition over the life cycle 5/14/2023 160
  • 161. Discussion Choose a specific company and: - Make short introduction about this company. - Analyse strategies at different stages of the life cycle of this company 5/14/2023 161
  • 162. Strategic thinking by Pham Hung Cuong Chapter 7 Innovation and strategic thinking in changing environment 5/14/2023 162
  • 163. Questions 1. What are skills of strategic thinking? 2. What is the process of creativity? 3. What is the process of strategic thinking? 4. What is the innovation? 5. What is the creativity? 5/14/2023 163
  • 164. Strategic thinking skills O Your title makes you manager. People decide if you are a leader. O Five keys to being a great leader: O Think strategically. O Results oriented. O Adapt and improve. O Building strong teams. O Inspire. O Honesty & Integrity. 5/14/2023 164
  • 165. Strategic thinking skills activities O Permanent and rapid change of business environment and broad range of information available Managers need a strategic mindset to be successful leaders. O Activities determining success: O Think Strategically: Consider broad range of internal and external factors when solving problems and making decisions with focus on long term business perspective. O Analyze Issues: Gather relevant information systematically, grasp complexities and perceive relationships among problems to bring clarity into issues solving. O Use Sound Judgement: Make timely and sound decisions. O Innovate: Encourage flexibility and creativity to generate new ideas to challenge status quo. 5/14/2023 165
  • 166. Think and act strategically motto “Your time is limited, don’t waste it living someone else’s life. Don’t be trapped by dogma, which is living the result of other people’s thinking.” Steve Jobs 5/14/2023 166
  • 167. Think and act strategically long-term focus 5/14/2023 167
  • 168. Think and act strategically developing strategic mindset O Strategic planning is an event, while strategic thinking is a process and an approach. O Part 1: Developing a Strategic Mindset: O Evaluating your strategic-thinking skills. O Enhancing your strategic thinking. O Recognizing the broad implications of issues. O Developing a strategic perspective of your own area. O Seeing the relationships. O Analyzing factors outside the business. 5/14/2023 168
  • 169. Think and act strategically applying strategic thinking skills O Successful leaders focus the energy of their organization on the initiatives that will have the greatest strategic impact. O Part 2: Applying strategic-thinking skills: O Identify key strategic opportunities. O Capitalizing on strategic opportunities. O Developing strategic alliances to increase competitive advantage. 5/14/2023 169
  • 170. Innovation and creativity motto “The best way to predict the future is to create it.” Peter Drucker 5/14/2023 170
  • 173. Innovation and creativity innovation in business O The ability to generate creative solutions is essential in business to survive and success depends on how quickly it can respond to a changing world. O Creativity involves not only coming up with original and innovative solutions, but also making existing solutions better. O Implement the innovative solutions quickly. 5/14/2023 173
  • 174. Innovation and creativity developing personal creativity O Creativity is a process that requries personal commitment and effort. O Part 1: Developing personal creativity: O Increasing your mental flexibility O Determinig when to use creative thinking O Approaching problems with curiosity and open- mindedness O Making use of existing information O Generating innovative ideas and solutions O Thinking positively when faced with obstacles 5/14/2023 174
  • 175. Innovation and creativity encouraging innovation in others O Increasing the innovation of your people to improve the quantity and quality of the creative ideas. O Part 2: Encouraging innovation in others: O Encouraging Innovation in your department O Using logical and intuitive approaches O Brainstorming O Stimulating creative ideas in others O Challenging “the way it has always been done” 5/14/2023 175
  • 176. Discussion Choose a specific company and: - Make short introduction about this company. - Analyse the process of the strategic thinking of this company 5/14/2023 176
  • 177. PROJECT Choose a specific company:  Introduce the company chosen  Analyse key issues in industry  Analyse the main elements of the environment (PESTEL)  Analyse the link between resources, capabilities and competitive advantage  Analyse features of this company’s strategy REQUIREMENTS: O Hard-copy and solf-copy O 3500 – 4000 words O Submit to teacher-in-charge by… 5/14/2023 177

Editor's Notes

  1. In organizations like ours, the word strategy gets thrown around an awful lot. We all know strategies are essential. But the meaning can be frustratingly elusive. What do we mean by strategy? What does the word mean in the context of our organizations? A plan to achieve our goals Actually, strategy implies plans that exist at many levels (sectors, programs, strategies, projects – annual and five year) – all interlinked What are strategies good for? Helping people work together Helping everyone see how their work is connected Helping us make choices as conditions change Helping us evaluate effectiveness and learn Helping us marshall the resources we need to be effective What makes creating and implementing shared strategies hard? It’s overwhelming It’s hard to see all the pieces at one time and keep them in mind It’s really hard to figure out what the most appropriate and useful goals should be It’s hard to make choices and prioritize We never have full information and the conditions are always changing. Nearly of the reasons why it is hard to create and implement strategy are actually due to the fact that strategy is about making choices, and we never have perfect or complete knowledge. We have to do our best to make good choices given the data we have. The process of making choices today in order to achieve desired outcomes in the future is often called strategic thinking.
  2. A lot of my own thoughts about strategic thinking were developed about 10 years ago when I did a pretty thorough review about what the business world and fields of cognitive psychology and economic decision theory could teach social change organizations about strategic thinking. So, as I gathered my thoughts before this training, I did some quick internet searches to learn what new developments there might be. A quick stop at Wikipedia was not at all encouraging. This slide is a direct quote from one of the first paragraphs of the entry on strategic thinking. In fact, the entry goes on to say that about the only thing most experts agree upon is that traditional models of strategy making (primarily based on strategic planning processes) are not working.
  3. It didn’t get much better from there. I found these two sensible but contradictory statements in a short article by Gregory Foster, a professor who teaches strategic thinking skills to America’s top military brass at one of our nation’s war colleges. His article summarized five points he has learned about strategic thinking over many years. These were two of his top five. It’s a fairly sobering assessment. Stepping back from the obvious ironies, there is an important lesson to be drawn. This fellow argues, and I think I agree, that strategic thinking is only learned experientially. Trainings like this may provide some useful frameworks and may help us become more conscious of some of the things we do that limit our ability to think strategically. In other settings we can use scenarios to practice and evaluate the outcomes of our choices. But primarily we learn how to think strategically over time through the real-world process of thinking, doing and evaluating.
  4. Despite my failed attempt to find wisdom through wikipedia, I do have some thoughts – some borrowed and some new – about what strategic thinking is and what it requires. Strategic thinking, in my book, is the ability to see both what is and what could be – and then make choices that lead to desired outcomes. If I had to boil strategic thinking down to just three components, here are a few big ones: Strategic thinking is first and foremost future oriented and focused on achieving long-term vision and goals. Strategic thinking is the ability to see entire systems – or at least as much of them as we can know – including underlying causes, inter-relationships and leverage points in a within a system. Strategic thinking involves the careful analysis and interpretation of data.
  5. Honest to goodness, I don’t know any other method for thinking strategically other than taking the time – individually and/or collectively – to think through a series of questions each time we are faced with a changing circumstances and are trying to settle on a course of action. When in doubt…ask yourselves what’s the goal? What’s our purpose. Even when the answer seems obvious. Even when the need for action seems crushingly urgent. What’s our goal. Some of the questions on this page don’t get asked fresh each time there is a decision to be made, but they serve as reference points that we should review and take into account.
  6. We’ve all heard the expression “To a person with a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.” It’s a familiar expression that describes a failure to think strategically – a failure to adequately assess the current reality and to question our own assumptions. And it contains some useful wisdom for anyone who wants to avoid falling into the trap of hammering something when another tool would be more effective. In fact, I think there is a lot of wisdom to be gained by looking at the question of strategic thinking from the other end of the telescope. Instead of trying to define precisely what strategic thinking is, let’s take a look at what it is NOT. Once we understand some of the things that limit our ability to think strategically, we can make important adjustments as individuals and groups.
  7. A major stumbling block for any group of people who is trying to make good strategic decisions together is a lack of shared analysis about the world we live in, how it operates, and how we hope to change it. If you and I have a fundamentally different understanding about the major problems and causes we are working to address, we aren’t going to be able to make choices based on a coherent analysis. We may argue over different ideas or positions, but our lack of agreement is often much deeper. In KFTC we deal with this all the time. If we are doing our jobs, we have new members every day, and new staff members several times a year. Those individuals come into the work with fresh and important ideas. But they have no real experience with or understanding of the power relationships we have to contend with. They may have very different assumptions about what the underlying problems and causes are that we are working to address. In order for anyone to contribute their ideas in a strategic way, we have to take time together to review and refresh our shared vision and analysis. This is a constant process. It requires us to develop and use good “reference points” so that we don’t have to start from scratch with each conversation. And it requires us to be open to re-thinking pieces of our analysis as circumstances change and new people bring new input. Our organizational analysis is fairly durable, but never fixed. People working within the organization are always questioning and working to deepen the shared analysis story, but it’s a problem if some folks are operating with an analysis that is fundamentally in conflict with the group’s.
  8. Uneven power relationships are a fact of life – both within and beyond our organizations. For those of us who are charged with thinking strategically (and all of us are) its important to understand that uneven power relationships can impact how we think about and make choices about the world we live in. The amount of relative power you have can affect the solutions you think are possible and the goals you are willing to aspire to. Our analysis of the primary problems that exist and the causes of those problems is certainly informed by the power we have, or feel we have, in society. And the input and data we consider when making decisions can also be affected unconsciously by our own assumptions about whose voice matters, who we think is credible, and who had input into the process. Simply being conscious and aware of some of these impacts can help us find ways to incorporate diverse perspectives, see the world more fully and accurately, and evaluate our choices more strategically.
  9. Here are two familiar tendencies that can limit strategic thinking. Some leaders may tend over-emphasize or focus on the importance of the long term goals, without taking into account current power relationships, organizational capacity, design and implementation challenges, and other important realities. This can lead others to feel the organization is just “tilting at windmills” and can leave people feeling ineffective. On the other hand, some of us may tend to zero in on activities or next steps as ends unto themselves – without thinking deeply about how those steps align with larger goals and strategy. This can lead to decisions that are not well connected – or worse in conflict with – the organization’s long-term goals. It can also result in individuals and organizations that are so busy pursuing the “urgent” and “immediate” tasks that we don’t take the time to step back, evaluate and realign our work with the larger goals. Strategic thinking requires a balance that leans towards the long-term, but is mindful and respectful of the importance of effective implementation.
  10. There are two more tendencies that can limit strategic thinking. One is called ANCHORING. It’s what happens when we settle – often very quickly – on an idea as the best approach. If we anchor ourselves to that position without being open to the full implications or without considering other options, we can miss very important alternatives. In my experience, anchoring is often the result of an over-done sense of urgency. “We have got to do something!” It’s especially common in coalition work, where we rarely devotes the time to developing a shared analysis. Instead we get on conference calls and people anchor on their preferred idea for how to move forward. It can be hard – but important – to invite people in these moments to revisit our goals and then take time to brainstorm and evaluate a range of possibilities. Here’s a common example of anchoring from KFTC: Any time 2 or more KFTC members have gotten together in the past ten years, at least one person has wanted the organization to pay for large billboards to promote ourselves. There seems to be a commonly held view that if we only did that, we would get lots of new members, our issues campaigns would be successful, and all would be well with the world. It may be a very good idea. It may even be a strategic choice. But we are engaged in “anchoring” if there is no thought given to a) what’s the goal? B) what other options exist to achieve that goal, C) What are our projections/assumptions about the benefits of bill board advertising vs other options, and can we test those? (For example, how realistic is it to think that bill boards could they really pay for themselves with new memberships?).
  11. Lastly, it’s important to point out that we all carry around biases that influence how we see the world and make sense of new information. Our underlying values and life experiences shape how we interpret data and the conclusions we reach. To a great extent, we aren’t even conscious of the layers of meaning and assumptions upon which our choices and actions are based. Author Peter Senge has created a metaphor and image he calls the “ladder of inference” to describe how it works. Here’s how the ladder works: I observe the world before me. I select data from what I observe. I add meaning to what I have selected. I make assumptions based upon the meaning I’ve added. I draw conclusions, which prompts feelings. I adopt beliefs about how the world works. I make choices and take action based on those beliefs. And most of that is unconscious and takes place in just a millisecond. On the one hand, this ladder is a necessary process for dealing with a complex world. But it can also limit our ability to think and respond to the world with a full and fair understanding of reality. Senge suggests some ways we can strive to avoid making unwise leaps up this ladder: Make your own thinking clear and transparent: here are my assumptions and conclusions Invite others to test your assumptions and conclusions Respectfully inquire about the thought process that others are using. In non-judgmental ways, invite people to make their own thinking transparent, and encourage people to revisit the lower rungs of their own ladder.
  12. Overemphasis on short-term or long-term? Anchoring out of fear/anxiety or extreme sense of urgency Unwillingness to examine bias?