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Talents in the vuca world

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Talents in the vuca world

  1. 1. Olga Ilyina, Consultant-Trainer Christopher Lee, President CBSD Thunderbird Russia TALENT IN THE VUCA WORLD
  2. 2. BUSINESS OUTLOOK 2 The talent crisis is no longer a problem of the future. It is here and now and is threatening business growth and economic prosperity. Source: PWC Annual CEO survey, 2011 •1 million workers PER YEAR will leave the Russian work force from 2012-2020 • Aging workforce; Baby Boomers retiring in droves • Critical shortage of 35-50 years old to replace Baby Boomers • Pace of change in market place (uncertain future) • Changing business landscape requires new skills
  3. 3. THE NEW NORMAL…
  4. 4. 2008-9 GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
  5. 5. Volatility—The nature, speed, volume, magnitude, and dynamics of change Uncertainty—The lack of predictability of issues and events Complexity—The confounding of issues and the chaos the surround any organization Ambiguity—The haziness of reality and the mixed meanings of conditions http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K JqCPFzq6kU VUCA
  6. 6. VOLATILITY: THE RATE OF CHANGE  Peter Vaill describes the rate of environmental change as “Permanent White Water”  Futurist John Peterson estimates that the total amount of information in the world is doubling every 18 months or less
  7. 7. UNCERTAINTY: PRESENT SITUATIONS AND FUTURE OUTCOMES  Complex systems and subsystems  Incomplete knowledge about the current situation
  8. 8. COMPLEXITY MULTIPLICITY OF KEY DECISION FACTORS  System complexity  Cause and effect relationship complexity especially with multiple causes and divergent effects  Many-linked cause and effect chains  Second order effects, third order effects, etc.  Time Lag effects in systems
  9. 9. AMBIGUITY LACK OF CLARITY ABOUT THE MEANING OF AN EVENT  Ambiguity is more prevalent in more complex situations  Multiple interpretations for the same event  System complexity contributes to ambiguous meaning  Uncertainty of contributing factors in any given situation  Intentions may be unknown or mis-inferred
  10. 10. SO HOW DO WE FIGURE THIS OUT? So, Russia is a stable, simple, clear, predictable business environment, right???
  11. 11. WHEN VUCA IS THE NAME OF THE GAME
  12. 12. DON’T LET THE VUCA БУКА GET YOU! 12
  13. 13. WHEN VUCA IS THE NAME OF THE GAME WHAT IS YOUR STRATEGY? AND WHAT DO YOU NEED TALENTS FOR?
  14. 14. WARRIORS LEADERS ANCHORS MERCENARIES BusinessDevelopment Operational Effectiveness WHO ARE YOU LOOKING FOR?
  15. 15. HOW TO ATTRACT RARE BIRDS? “All the models are wrong, but some of them are useful…” Why? How? What?
  16. 16. SIR ERNEST SHACKLETON • Arranged and led three British expeditions to Antarctic • in 1914 lead Imperial Trans- Antarctic Expedition • Disaster struck this expedition when its ship, Endurance, became trapped in pack ice and was slowly crushed • Not a single team member died, all the team returned safely 16
  17. 17. HOW DID SHACKLETON HIRED HIS TEAM? Every recruitment ad: Real recruitment ad:  «Men needed for dangerous adventure. Rewards include low wages, intolerable cold, long months of complete darkness, constant danger, and no guarantee of safe return. In case of success, glory and recognition is guaranteed.» 17
  18. 18. REMEMBER WHY? HOW? WHAT? 18 WARRIORS LEADERS ANCHORS MERCENARIES START WITH WHY?

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