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Treasury in a Time of Crisis
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Webinar presented by Bob Stark on April 28, 2020.
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Treasury in a Time of Crisis
1.
Kyriba.com Copyright ©
2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved. Treasury in a Time of Crisis April 28, 2020
2.
Kyriba.com Copyright ©
2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved.Kyriba.com Copyright © 2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved. What is the treasurer's biggest priority today?
3.
Kyriba.com Copyright ©
2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved.Kyriba.com Copyright © 2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved. What is the treasurer's biggest priority today? 4 March 2020 April 2020 Remaining productive Active Liquidity Integrity of process and controls Managing costs Active Liquidity Integrity of process and controls Risk of fraud FX Volatility Managing costs Risk of fraud FX Volatility Remaining productive
4.
Kyriba.com Copyright ©
2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved.Kyriba.com Copyright © 2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved. What are treasurers being asked to prepare?
5.
Kyriba.com Copyright ©
2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved.Kyriba.com Copyright © 2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved. What are Treasury Teams Being Asked to Prepare? 1) Cash Forecasting • 88% of AFP Survey respondents said they wanted to improve cash forecasting • Question: how long will my cash last? • Requirements: o Precision has become incredibly important oFlexibility to model different scenarios and ‘what-ifs’ 6
6.
Kyriba.com Copyright ©
2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved. Path to success… a) Collaboration – involving the right people b) Building – incorporating the right data streams c) Measurement – feedback loop to measure and report on forecast accuracy Cash Forecasting
7.
Kyriba.com Copyright ©
2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved. Building the Forecast Bank Reporting Cash Forecast Business Units Spreadsheet Models ERP Investments and Debt Historical Data Internal TeamsDerivative Positions Payments Forecasting success is about choosing the right sources and models for the different forecasting line items a) Importing b) Modeling c) Copy/Paste Cash Forecasting
8.
Kyriba.com Copyright ©
2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved.Kyriba.com Copyright © 2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved. Account A Transaction Date Status Amount Last Update Date 06/01/2020 Estimated Forecast 800 01/01/2020 Transaction Date Status Amount Last Update Date 06/01/2020 Estimated Forecast 1000 04/01/2020 Transaction Date Status Amount Last Update Date 07/01/2020 Confirmed Forecast 1000 04/28/2020 Version 1 The forecast is created Example of the life of a cash forecast Version 2 The amount is modified Version 3 The status is modified Challenge: Capture Every Version of the Forecast Cash Forecasting
9.
Kyriba.com Copyright ©
2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved.Kyriba.com Copyright © 2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved. Can be managed through data visualization or “business intelligence” tools that your IT team can support (or your TMS/ERP) Retaining all the data is the answer Versioning helps users to monitor and improve the convergence of their forecasts to real cash flows Cash Forecasting
10.
Kyriba.com Copyright ©
2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved. Measurement • By capturing every version of the forecast a) Can accurately measure forecast accuracy b) Precisely uncover forecast variances c) Implement feedback loop by fixing the variances Cash Forecasting
11.
Kyriba.com Copyright ©
2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved.Kyriba.com Copyright © 2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved. Working from home challenges • March: Being productive while meeting diverse needs • April: Fully operational and secure
12.
Kyriba.com Copyright ©
2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved.Kyriba.com Copyright © 2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved. Is security a concern for treasury right now?
13.
Kyriba.com Copyright ©
2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved. Fraud isn’t a new problem – but we are more exposed 14 81% Percent of companies reported being targets of payment fraud in 2019 80% Percent of organizations who experienced Business Email Compromise (BEC) in 2019 54% Percent of organizations reporting financial loss as a result of BEC 64% Percentage of payment fraud committed by an individual outside the organization
14.
Kyriba.com Copyright ©
2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved.Kyriba.com Copyright © 2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved. 15 Working Remotely Introduces New Risks Using personal networks and devices • Most workers will be in their homes where they are responsible to secure their wireless internet connection. Organizations have little control over how remote workers configure their wireless networks, or what other devices could be connected to them. • Some will have to use unsecured public networks which are prime spots for malicious parties to spy on internet traffic and collect confidential personal and business-related information. Lack of training and awareness • In addition to the technical considerations, cybersecurity training and awareness-building initiatives are critical to reducing risk. Most notably, how to keep work and personal activities as separate as possible. • Organizations need to ensure employees know how to use the tools and technologies that support remote collaboration, as well as how to recognize and prevent COVID-19 cyber threats, such as phishing, fraudulent emails, and phone calls offering tech support or posing as solicitations from charities. Phishing and other scams by bad actors • The COVID-19 related spike in malicious phishing emails has seen cyber criminals using the pandemic to steal data and blackmail individuals for money. • Researchers found a 667% increase in phishing emails using the coronavirus as the hook to trick individuals into clicking links or downloading attachments that included malware, ransomware, and viruses. Using personal devices and applications • Many workers are using personal devices for work tasks. These often lack the tools built into their organization’s approved devices such as strong antivirus software, customized firewalls, and automatic online backup tools. • This increases the risk of malware finding its way onto devices and both personal and work-related information being leaked.
15.
Kyriba.com Copyright ©
2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved. Protecting Access to Treasury Systems • UserID/Password by themselves should not grant access to the system • 81% of data breaches from stolen/weak passwords Source: Verizon DBIR • Especially when working from home, your systems should use a combination of password controls and encryption: Strong password policy controls Multi-factor authentication (hard or soft token) IP Filtering Single Sign-On Data encryption at rest and in transit
16.
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2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved. • Global Financial Services Firm – lost $18M in payment fraud in less than a week in a phishing scheme. • Large Manufacturing Firm – lost ~$3M over 1 year in a drip campaign • Tech Firm – released $1.2M wire from Deepfake CFO impersonation • Engineering firm – lost $31M over several years due to internal wire fraud Fraud Examples: Breakdown of Controls
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2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved. • Multiple ERPs with different approval processes • Regional treasury/shared services require lesser numbers of approval due to limited in-country staff • CEO and/or CFO have ability to execute or influence payments with only one other approval • Payments backup documents stored in a different system than payment approvals • Payment files can be opened and modified • No automated detection for duplicate and unusual payments • Lack of real-time visibility into all payments Scenarios that are ripe for payments fraud
18.
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2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved. To detect fraud, finance must… Payment Policy Screening Rule Payments should only go to approved suppliers in approved countries All payments to non-approved countries must be stopped Payments initiated by A/P within the ERP are only approved or rejected by finance Any payments that are modified after import must be stopped Single or multiple payments to same beneficiary must not exceed a specified limit Hold for review any payments that cumulatively exceed specified limit per day/week/month All payments to a newly modified bank account must be reviewed by Treasurer First payment to a new or modified bank account must be held for review Exceptional payments should be reviewed by Controller All payments with a standard deviation of x% from typical payments of the same type must be stopped for further review
19.
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2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved.Kyriba.com Copyright © 2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved. Rules-based automation and machine learning to detect violations of payment policy and detection of payment anomalies (from normal behavior) Dashboards expedite the review process Screening Payments: enforce payment policy
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2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved.Kyriba.com Copyright © 2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved.21 Is market volatility a driving concern? - FX - Equities and Fixed Income - Central Bank rates to zero
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2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved.Kyriba.com Copyright © 2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved. Currency Risk 22 This was before the COVID crisis
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2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved.Kyriba.com Copyright © 2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved. Currency Risk 23 Observed during the pandemic • Flight to major currencies • Persistent upward movement in USD • Volatility What it means • FX headwinds for Q1 not the biggest priority • Q2: Everything will be scrutinized • CFOs expected to know what FX exposures they have and demonstrate action to remedy: hedging or organic reduction in net exposure to 1% of EPS
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2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved.Kyriba.com Copyright © 2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved. Zero Interest Rates 24 Consequences • Low borrowing costs (for those with high credit quality) • Effectively no return on cash Especially problematic for the 56% of organizations where treasury is viewed as cost- neutral or a profit center • Must be more intentional and ‘active’ with your liquidity
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2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved.Kyriba.com Copyright © 2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved. Is this crisis the straw that breaks the camel's back for using spreadsheets in treasury?
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Kyriba.com Copyright ©
2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved. Why not just use Excel? • Spreadsheets are easy…when managing cash is easy • Become less effective when integrating data sources • Not truly multi-user o Lacks controls o Lacks audit trails • Terrible for data-driven treasuries o Have data maximums o Can’t store multiple versions o No drill downs oTakes significant time to change formulas and create entirely new dashboards and analyses
26.
Kyriba.com Copyright ©
2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved.Kyriba.com Copyright © 2020 Kyriba Corp. All rights reserved. To Summarize… • Liquidity continues to be the number one priority • The Cash Forecast is the number one deliverable • Payment Fraud has become a bigger threat • Fraudsters target weak or inconsistent controls • 36% of payments fraud is internal • Treasury teams that can actively manage market risks will become permanent strategic advisors 27
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