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KMC MAG Group Office Market Briefing Q3 2015
1. KMC MAG Group Research
Metro Manila
kmcmaggroup.com/research
Metro Manila
Office Briefing Q3 2015
THE FACTS AT A GLANCE
Marketplace absorbs significant new supply in Q3/2015
ÀÀ The Net take-up for Premium
and Grade A office space in
Metro Manila reached 231,412
sq m in Q3/2015, the largest
recorded take-up all time. This
was due to the 232,961 sq m
of new supply delivered, which
was mostly pre-leased before
the completion.
ÀÀ On average, the rental rate
of Grade A offices increased
6.0% YoY to Php 822.7 per sq
m/month in Q3/2015. Makati
CBD still commands the highest
rental rate while Alabang
continues to lag behind other
Metro Manila office markets.
ÀÀ Around 1.8 million sq m
of leasable office space is
expected to hit the market by
2018, 51.8% of which is to rise
in Bonifacio Global City.
ÀÀ Despite the significant amount
of new office space entering
the Metro Manila office market
in the medium-term, vacancy
and rental rates are expected
to remain stable due to strong
pre-leasing activity.
ÀÀ Bay Area and Quezon City are
projected to have continuously
low vacancy rates and stronger
rental rate growth compared
to the other business districts
due to the sustained demand
from the IT-BPO industry and
the relatively low level of new
supply within the next 12
months.
2. kmcmaggroup.com/research | 2
Q3 2015Metro Manila | Office Briefing
Office Market Snapshot | Makati CBD
Makati CBD Market in Minutes
ÀÀ Makati CBD remains to be Metro Manila’s premium CBD. It still has the highest asking rental rate for Grade
A offices among Metro Manila markets. In Q3/2015 rental rates averaged Php 979.1 per sq m/ month,
growing 4.3% YoY. The upper net rental rate, on the other hand, is recorded at Php 1,400.0 per sq m/month.
ÀÀ For the same period, the district recorded a vacancy of 3.0% with most of the available spaces from the
sparsely occupied Tower 6789. The unavailability of developable land in the CBD will keep vacancy rates
low until 2020.
ÀÀ One notable development in the CBD is the transformation of the unfinished JAKA Tower along Ayala Avenue
into a strata-type office building called Alveo Financial Tower. The project is expected to be fully turned over
by the second half of 2020 and will be a part of Ayala Land’s City Gate complex. Another development of
note is the renovation of Insular Life Building, which is set to reopen 19,156 sq m of leasable space in Q4
2016.
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
3Q2007=100
Makati CBD Rental Growth, YoY
Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Rental Index
Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index
GRAPH 3
Rental Performance
Source: KMC Research & Consultancy
Unit Q3/2015
Average net rental rate Php/sq m/month 979.1
Upper net rental rate Php/sq m/month 1,400.0
Average capital value Php/sq m 183,966.9
Equivalent yield % 8.25
Vacancy rate % 3.0
Current stock sq m 1,080,863
Development pipeline 2015-2018 sq m 74,556
TABLE 1
Key Figures - Premium and Grade A Office
Source: KMC Research & Consultancy
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Sqm(GLA)
Makati CBD Grade A Office Supply
Makati CBD Grade A Office Take-up
GRAPH 2
Supply & Take-up
Source: KMC Research & Consultancy
GRAPH 1
Stock & Vacancy
Source: KMC Research & Consultancy
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
sqm(GLA)
Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Stock
Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Vacancy Rate
3. kmcmaggroup.com/research | 3
Q3 2015Metro Manila | Office Briefing
Office Market Snapshot | Bonifacio Global City
BGC Market in Minutes
ÀÀ BGC’s rental rate grew 3.7% YoY bringing the district’s average rental rate at Php 860.4 per sq m/month
in Q3/2015; the district’s upper rental rate is at Php 1,100.0 per sq m/month.
ÀÀ Vacancy rate slightly increased to 2.6% in Q3/2015 from 1.3% in Q2/2015 due to the supply additions.
However, it should be noted that the district absorbed majority of the new office supply of 60,690 sq m in
Q3/2015. Its net take-up of 49,639 sq m for the same period is the highest recorded quarterly take-up
since Q1/2014.
ÀÀ With its office stock expected to double within the next three years, rental rate growth is projected to ease
in the coming quarters and vacancies expected to increase. However, the market is still expected to see
sustained demand from the IT-BPO industry and multinational companies moving to the CBD.
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
sqm(GLA)
Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Stock
Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Vacancy Rate
GRAPH 4
Stock & Vacancy
Source: KMC Research & Consultancy
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
sqm(GLA)
Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Supply
Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Take-up
GRAPH 5
Supply & Take-up
Source: KMC Research & Consultancy
Source: KMC Research & Consultancy
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
3Q2007=100
Bonifacio Global City Rental Growth, YoY
Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Rental Index
Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index
GRAPH 6
Rental Performance
Unit Q3/2015
Average net rental rate Php/sq m/month 860.4
Upper net rental rate Php/sq m/month 1,100.0
Average capital value Php/sq m 150,439.9
Equivalent yield % 8.75
Vacancy rate % 2.6
Current stock sq m 840,357
Development pipeline 2015-2018 sq m 934,886
TABLE 2
Key Figures - Grade A Office
Source: KMC Research & Consultancy
4. kmcmaggroup.com/research | 4
Q3 2015Metro Manila | Office Briefing
Office Market Snapshot | Ortigas Center
Ortigas Center Market in Minutes
ÀÀ Ortigas Center’s average rental rate grew 6.8% YoY in Q3/2015. This brings the district’s average asking
rate to Php 624.6 per sq m/ month with upper rental rate at Php 750.0 per sq m/month.
ÀÀ The 47-storey BDO Corporate Center Ortigas was turned over in Q3/2015. However, the LEED Gold
building is for exclusive use of BDO Unibank.
ÀÀ With no new office developments hitting the market until the end of 2016, the vacancy rate is expected to
stay low, which in turn supports rental growth.
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
sqm(GLA)
Ortigas Center Grade A Office Supply
Ortigas Center Grade A Office Take-up
GRAPH 8
Supply & Take-up
Source: KMC Research & Consultancy
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
3Q2007=100
Ortigas Center Rental Growth, YoY
Ortigas Center Grade A Office Rental Index
Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index
GRAPH 9
Rental Performance
Source: KMC Research & Consultancy
Unit Q3/2015
Average net rental rate Php/sq m/month 624.6
Upper net rental rate Php/sq m/month 750.0
Average capital value Php/sq m 92,069.0
Equivalent yield % 9.00
Vacancy rate % 2.5
Current stock sq m 635,199
Development pipeline 2015-2018 sq m 102,389
TABLE 3
Key Figures - Grade A Office
Source: KMC Research & Consultancy
GRAPH 7
Stock & Vacancy
Source: KMC Research & Consultancy
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
sqm(GLA)
Ortigas Center Grade A Office Stock
Ortigas Center Grade A Office Vacancy Rate
5. kmcmaggroup.com/research | 5
Q3 2015Metro Manila | Office Briefing
Office Market Snapshot | Alabang
Alabang Market in Minutes
ÀÀ The Alabang office market remained sluggish with YoY rental rate growth at only 0.6%. This brought the
average asking rental rate of the CBD to Php 605.3 per sqm/ month in Q3/2015 from Php 601.8 per sq m/
month in Q3/2014. This is also the lowest average asking rental rate among the six office markets tracked
in this report.
ÀÀ Alabang is also the only Metro Manila CBD to record a two-digit vacancy rate at 16.0%, another sign of a
slow performing market. Alabang has been posting two-digit vacancy rates since the turnover of around
78,000 sq m of office space in Q4/2014 in contrast to the other districts’ vacancy rate of less than 3.0%.
ÀÀ Given Alabang’s office market performance in the last few quarters, rental rate growth is expected to
decelerate, or even compress, in the next three years. About 210,000 sq m of office spaces is in the district’s
pipeline until 2018.
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
sqm(GLA)
Alabang Grade A Office Stock
Alabang Grade A Office Vacancy Rate
GRAPH 10
Stock & Vacancy
Source: KMC Research & Consultancy
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
sqm(GLA)
Alabang Grade A Office Supply
Alabang Grade A Office Take-up
GRAPH 11
Supply & Take-up
Source: KMC Research & Consultancy
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
3Q2007=100
Alabang Rental Growth, YoY
Alabang Grade A Office Rental Index
Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index
GRAPH 12
Rental Performance
Source: KMC Research & Consultancy
Unit Q3/2015
Average net rental rate Php/sq m/month 605.3
Upper net rental rate Php/sq m/month 650.0
Average capital value Php/sq m 65,178.1
Equivalent yield % 10.50
Vacancy rate % 16.0
Current stock sq m 256,110
Development pipeline 2015-2018 sq m 211,280
TABLE 4
Key Figures - Grade A Office
Source: KMC Research & Consultancy
6. kmcmaggroup.com/research | 6
Q3 2015Metro Manila | Office Briefing
Office Market Snapshot | Quezon City
Quezon City Market in Minutes
ÀÀ Quezon City rental rate averaged Php 700.4 per sq m/month in Q3/2015, growing 8.5% YoY with upper
rental rate at Php 750.0 per sq m/month.
ÀÀ The Quezon City office market is one of the best performing districts in Metro Manila at the moment with its
vacancy rate falling below 1.0% for the fourth consecutive quarter. The district posted the lowest vacancy rate
among all districts in Q3/2015 with only 0.2% of its total stock left unoccupied.
ÀÀ Available Grade A office spaces in the district will remain scarce in the short-term with no new developments
coming online until 2H2016.
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
sqm(GLA)
Quezon City Grade A Office Stock
Quezon City Grade A Office Vacancy Rate
GRAPH 13
Stock & Vacancy
Source: KMC Research & Consultancy
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
sqm(GLA)
Quezon City Grade A Office Supply
Quezon City Grade A Office Take-up
GRAPH 14
Supply & Take-up
Source: KMC Research & Consultancy
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
3Q2007=100
Quezon City Rental Growth, YoY
Quezon City Grade A Office Rental Index
Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index
GRAPH 15
Rental Performance
Source: KMC Research & Consultancy
TABLE 5
Key Figures - Grade A Office
Unit Q3/2015
Average net rental rate Php/sq m/month 700.4
Upper net rental rate Php/sq m/month 750.0
Average capital value Php/sq m 103,392.2
Equivalent yield % 10.50
Vacancy rate % 0.2
Current stock sq m 379,151
Development pipeline 2015-2018 sq m 196,276
Source: KMC Research & Consultancy
7. kmcmaggroup.com/research | 7
Q3 2015Metro Manila | Office Briefing
Office Market Snapshot | Bay Area
Bay Area Market in Minutes
ÀÀ Bay Area recorded the highest YoY rental rate growth among all districts at 17.0% in Q3/2015. This brings
average Grade A office rent at Php 673.4 per sq m/month with the upper rental rate at Php 700.0 per sq
m/ month.
ÀÀ Vacant spaces in the district continue to dwindle with only 1.3% of spaces available in Q3/2015 in spite of
the turnover of Five Ecom due to it being mostly pre-leased.
ÀÀ Bay Area’s pipeline is also rather impressive with close to 240,000 sq m to be delivered before 2018.
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
sqm(GLA)
Bay Area Grade A Office Stock
Bay Area Grade A Office Vacancy Rate
GRAPH 16
Stock & Vacancy
Source: KMC Research & Consultancy
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
sqm(GLA)
Bay Area Grade A Office Supply
Bay Area Grade A Office Take-up
GRAPH 17
Supply & Take-up
Source: KMC Research & Consultancy
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
1,000.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 3Q2015
Php/sqm/month
Bay Area Grade A Office Rental Growth YoY
Bay Area Grade A Office Rental Rates
GRAPH 18
Rental Performance
Source: KMC Research & Consultancy
Unit Q3/2015
Average net rental rate Php/sq m/month 673.4
Upper net rental rate Php/sq m/month 700.0
Average capital value Php/sq m 95,803.4
Equivalent yield % 10.50
Vacancy rate % 1.3
Current stock sq m 307,662
Development pipeline 2015-2018 sq m 239,248
Source: KMC Research & Consultancy
TABLE 6
Key Figures - Grade A Office
8. KMC MAG Group
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Yves Luethi
Vice President
yves.luethi@kmcmaggroup.com
Gerold Fernando
Associate Director-
Office Leasing
gerold@kmcmaggroup.com
Michael McCullough
Managing Director
michael@kmcmaggroup.com
Rosario Carbonell
Associate Director-
Office Leasing
rosario@kmcmaggroup.com
Antton Nordberg
Head of Research
antton.nordberg@kmcmaggroup.com
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General Manager-
Cebu
lana@kmcmaggroup.com
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