The document summarizes the Indian market as being in a consolidation phase in September 2014. Key points include:
1) The NIFTY surged 27% YTD on strong FII inflows and hopes for economic reforms under the new government.
2) The market is expected to remain range-bound in the near term due to potential profit-taking, but long-term investors can view minor corrections as buying opportunities in quality stocks.
3) Earnings growth has started to show green shoots, while the PM's first 90 days in office were seen as promising but not impressive. Brent crude prices hitting 14-month lows will provide a boost to the economy and oil sector.
1. Indian Market : Consolidation Phase
NIFTY
Indian Market :
Consolidation Phase
Pg. 1
1st September - 2014 to 30th September - 2014
Gateway
Distriparks Ltd.
Pg. 3-4-5-6-7
8250
7600
Possibility - 1 Possibility - 2
Commodity Outlook
pg. 13 - 14
Sept
2013
Oct
2013
Nov
2013
Dec
2013
Jan
2014
Feb
2014
March
2014
April
2014
May
2014
Jun
2014
July
2014
Aug
2014
Sept
2014
Oct
2014
8500
8000
7500
7000
6500
6000
5500
6299 6176
6304
6090
6277
6704
6696
7230
7611
7721
7954
7600
8250
5735
The markets are currently consolidating as NIFTY surged 27% on YTD basis on strong FII flow and hope of reformist government.
It is expected that Market will remain range bound for near term as profit booking pressure could emerge. However, long term
investors can take this minor correction as opportunity to buy and accumulate strong quality fundamental stocks.
1st September - 2014 to 30th September - 2014 www.jhaveritrade.com
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From The MD’s Desk
Market closed at all time high
As we have seen, the market has sustained at all time high, SENSEX at 26867 and NIFTY at 8027. There are certain facts
and data driving the market. Following are the few points which have driven market to new highs and still can provide
necessary fire to the market.
1. Optimistic statements by RBI about the economic recovery even if there will be rain deficit.
2. The oil reforms undertaken by the government are clearly reducing the subsidy burden. Any cut in LPG
subsidy will be a big positive for the market going ahead.
3. Expectations of upward revision of Indian rating by S&P and Moody's is really driving the FII money in equity
and debt market.
4. Almost all hurdles to rollout GST are cleared and can turn to reality soon.
5. The global oil prices are declining meaningfully and the oil supply is on track even there is continued
geopolitical risk in Ukraine, Gaza and Iraq.
The FIIs really believe India story and have full faith in economic recovery under Narendra Modi government. The business
confidence has clearly increased after 100 days of Modi government. People are optimistic and so are the FIIs. Some global
analysts are confident about revenue upgrades in certain sectors. Pharmaceutical is one of the sector having clear chances
of revenue upgrade. We have seen some good buying in mid-cap pharma companies in last certain days. In case of oil and
gas sector, the market is waiting for cabinet decision on gas pricing. The market also think that the worst for PSU banks is
over and the economic recovery will lead to credit growth for the banks.
Under the circumstances, the market will continue with sound support at 7700/25800. Any decisive close above 7920-7950
range will give more confidence to the market.
Kamlesh Jhaveri
Managing Director
Jhaveri Securities Ltd.
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5. Parameters
Q1 FY 15
Q1 FY 14
Net Profit (` in Cr.)
62040
46792
% Change (YoY)
33.4
8.8
Net Sales (` in Cr.)
554426
491689
% Change (YoY)
12.8
4.8
Net Profit Margin (%)
11.3
9.5
According to Care Ratings, over 1,204 companies have registered a substantial growth in Q1 FY 15. However, underlying
parameters such as (1) loan growth, credit quality for banks (2) volume growth for consumer stocks (3) domestic order
inflows for industrial companies were largely weak in 1QFY15. Some industries (like automobiles, electricity) are starting to
show strong growth. So we can consider earnings green shoots have started and as far as underlying parameters are
concerned it will take not more than two quarters to improve.
Narendra Modi has completed three months into office as prime minister and in Ninety days, Modi has made some
unpopular decisions, such as approving diesel price hikes and increase the cost of railway tickets. However, PM has also
taken decisions like : 1) FDI allowed in insurance firms was raised from 26 percent to 49 percent. 2) The formalization of
rules for long-term infrastructure bonds. 3) Hiking foreign direct investment limits in defense firms (from 26 percent to 49
percent) and railways (up to 100 percent) 4) Simplifying environmental and forest clearance rules. 5) Controlling inflation by
releasing food grain stock. PM 's work so far as "not impressive, but promising.” PM established his credentials and has
pledged to do more for the country as a whole, but what he plans on doing remains to be seen.
Brent crude at 14 month low - big booster for Indian economy
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Issue Theme
Indian Market : Consolidation Phase
1
Earnings green shoots have started
PM’s 90 day scorer card : not impressive but promising
The 2014-15 budget estimated India’s subsidy bill at Rs.2.6 trillion, or 2.03% of gross domestic product (GDP), with oil
subsidies amounting to Rs.63,500 crore and calculated the fuel subsidy bill assuming a crude oil price of $110 per barrel.
With the price coming down to $100.04 per barrel (touching 14th month low ) and the Indian rupee also stabilizing around
the Rs.60 per dollar mark, a rough calculation shows that the government could save up to Rs.5,000-6,000 crore in oil
subsidies if crude prices remain around these levels till the end of the fiscal year. India’s ambitious plans to contain its fiscal
deficit at 4.1% of GDP in 2014-15, against 4.5% of GDP in the previous year. According to estimates, a one dollar change in
the price of crude oil in the Indian energy basket has an impact of Rs.8,000 crore on under-recoveries.
Oil and Gas sector is expected to re-rate : According to Goldman Sachs, losses on retail diesel sales are now down to 80
paisa/ litre from ` 1.30/ litre in the first fortnight of August this year. The gap is expected to close down 30 paisa /litre after the
scheduled price increases from September-1 assuming that oil price remain around same level. As the current rate of diesel
deregulation is in continution, in the next two months diesel will be market priced which will give big boost to OMCs and its
under recoveries.
Conclusion
Some of the good steps which were taken by UPA government in last six months have started to give positive reactions in
reviving almost stagnant economy. The good actions on the part of UPA government is being continued with new
enthusiasm and new policy initiatives by NDA government. As Indian economy expanded 5.7% in the first quarter of FY15,
the highest in nine quarters, against a growth of 4.6% in Q4 of 2013-14. Everybody is slowly and steadily convince that the
market is at a multi-year bull run. Currently It is entering in a consolidation phase, which makes it a “buy on dips market”.
6. IPO
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Listing
7. Gateway Distriparks Ltd was incorporated on April 6, 1994. The company was originally
promoted by NTSC, CWT Distribution Ltd, NUR Investment and Trading Pvt Ltd and
Intercontinental Forest Products Pte Ltd as joint venture company, to conduct the
business of warehousing, container freight stations and all related activities.
Gateway Distriparks is a Container logistics company with Pan-India presence. The
company is a world-class state-of-the-art logistics facilitator in one of the world's fastest
growing markets. They are providing Container Freight Station (CFS) / Inland Container
Depot (ICD) services. The company is armed with modern Container Freight Stations at
Dronagiri in Navi Mumbai, Manali in Chennai and Vishakapatnam in Andhra Pradesh
besides an Inland Container Depot at Garhi Harsaru in Haryana.
3 www.jhaveritrade.com
Gateway Distriparks Ltd.
Company Basics “Buy” CMP : `258 TGT : `348
BSE ID
NSE Symbol
GROUP
EQUITY (` in Cr.)
MKT.CAP(` in Cr.)
532622
GDL
B
108.73
2805.18
Financial Basics
FV (`)
EPS (x) (TTM)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
BETA
RONW (%)
10.00
13.13
19.65
0.38
0.4545
8.53
Investment Rationale
Investment Horizon: 12 to 18 Months
Share Holding Pattern
Holder's Name
Foreign
Institutions
Promoters
Mutual Funds
Public & Others
Bodies Corporate
% Holding
28.46
20.61
37.77
4.44
8.72
0.00
Company Description
Investment Rational Indian port traffic is expected to grow CAGR
14% from 2012 to 2017E
Ports play a pivotal role in the overall economic development of the country. According
to industry estimates about 90% by volume and 70% by value of the country’s
international trade is carried out through maritime transport. India has 7517 KMs of
longest cost line with 13 major and 176 non major ports. According to Maritime Agenda
2010-2020, Maharashtra (15%), Andhra Pradesh (13%), and Tamil Nadu (11%) have
significantly contributed in Indian port traffic through major port.
Indian port traffic has grown CAGR 8.5% from 00-01 to 2011-12 (898 MMT in 2011-12
v/s 368 MMT in 2000-01). Inspite of significant growth rate achieved in last decade in
port traffic and geographical advantage, Indian port development / Indian port traffic is
not up to global standards and has being handling lower in comparison to global parts.
So there is huge space of development is there.
To achieve this target, Ministry of
Shipping has initiated a policy
measure called Marine Time Agenda
2010-2020 which has major thrust on
development of India’s major and non
major port through various Private
Public Partnership and various FDI
initiative in Port Sector.Some of
ambitious target of 2010 - 2020 are
Company Analysis
2009-10 2011-12 2016-17E 2019-20E
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
850
963
1032
1240
2020
1240
2500
3200
Traffic Capacity
Indices
Nifty
Sensex
Valuations
Value
7904
26442
Currently, GDL is trading at
`258 . We Recommend “Buy”
with, assigning target multiple
11x EV/EBITDA FY16E with
target price of `348 .
ROI : 35%
8. Containerized cargo traffic : The major driver of Container Freight Station (CFS) and Inland
Container Depot (ICD)
10494
14%
12077
15%
14011
16%
Chennai 600
www.jhaveritrade.com
Gateway Distriparks Ltd.
(A) Create Port capacity of 3200 M.T. for handling about 2500 M.T. of cargo
(B) Improve Port performance on par with the best in the world
( C ) Full mechanization of cargo handling at ports.
Company Analysis
2007
2008
6248
7618
21%
22%
16%
18%
4 2009
7871
3%
18%
2010
8130
3%
18%
2011
9189
13%
20%
TEU ('000s)
YoY Growth (%)
Ports handle various kinds of cargo (Break bulk, Dry, Container, Liquid) at terminals. Container cargo constitutes around 22-
23% of overall cargo handling at port which is much lower as compared to global average of 70-80%. Indian container traffic
has grown from 6248 000 TEU in 2007 to 14011 000 TEU in 2014, more than double during the span of seven years. The
growth of container cargo is mainly dependent on two main reason
Rising major EXIM trade at various major and non major port
The development of major and non major port with improvement in infrastructure facilities is the key growth driver of EXIM
trade.
Change in types of commodities transport from container cargo
The pattern of change in commodity type is the major reason for growth in EXIM. Initially, commodities like garments,
electronic goods agro products, cotton yarn, machinery & machinery parts, granite products, coir products, leather products
and jute products are the mainly containerized from Indian port . However, due to economies of scale and cost optimization,
break bulk cargos like rice, cement iron ore, sugar, soya, rice are now moving in containers. Moreover, some of
commodities have permanent container fixtures which further move commodities swiftly.
Indian CFS / ICD market grown CAGR 14% from 2009-2013
The growth of container Freight Station / Inland container Depot has directly co-related with the growth of containerization
level and port traffic growth at various major and non major ports in India. As international trade is increasing , Indian CFS
market size has grown from ` 74 billion in 2009 to ` 125 billion in 2013 and the segment has grown an average of 14% YoY in
last five years. CFS accounts for 40% of the container load while ICD accounts for 60%. We believe that Indian CFS /ICD
market is expected to grow in range of 15-18% in coming years on development of container terminals in existing major
ports, emerging growth in east cost ports and policy frame work in the form of Marine Time Vision 2020.
Further development of container terminals at major and non major port
2012
22%
2013
NA
Year
Containerization (% of overall Cargo)
2014
NA
Port
Proposed Projects Estimated Cost of Project (` in Cr.)
Chennai-Ennore Port road connectivity
Development ofChennai Mega Terminal
Development of Integrated Dry Port & Multi-modal Logistics
Hub near by place
3686
415
9. JNPT
(I+II) Various road infrastructure / connectivity NA
The DMIC is the ambitious project by government of India which pass through highly industrial state of county U.P, NCR of
Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Maharashtra, with end terminals at Dadri in the National Capital Region of Delhi and
Jawaharlal Nehru Port near Mumbai.The main objective of this project is expanding the manufacturing and services base in
India. We believe DMIC is the key growth driver for EXIM trade in India.
Indian Cold Chain industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~28% over the next 4 years and reach a market size of ~USD 13
Bn in 2017 and is largely unorganized in nature. Thereby, presenting a great opportunity for foreign companies The Indian
cold chain market is highly fragmented with more than 3,500 companies in the whole value system Organized players
contribute only ~8% - 10% of the cold chain industry market. Most equipment in use is outdated and single e-commodity
based.
GDL entered into the cold chain business with the acquisition of a 50.1% stake in Snowman Frozen Foods in 2006. The
remaining ownership is distributed with GDL at 54% followed by Mitsubishi, IFC and NVP at 18%, 14% and 14%,
respectively. The segment increased its revenue contribution significantly from 8% in FY12 to 16% in FY14. EBITDA margin
for the segment also expanded improved significantly from 16% to 18.5% over the same period. We expect that the pallet
capacity is expected to expand to 91,000 in FY16 from 55000 in FY14 .
GDL has 785,000 TEUs capacity in ICD segment and 21 rakes in Rail Freight and it is the second largest container train
operator (CTO) in the country. Combined Rail and ICD throughput grew at a CAGR of ~7% over FY12-14 to 205538 TEUs.
We believe that it is expected to grow at ~11% CAGR over FY14-16E. The rakes ply mainly run on the EXIM route, so this
reducing empty running and expected higher margins. In FY14, GDL was able to pass on FY13 freight hikes and enhanced
its operational efficiency with double stacking and closure of unprofitable routes, which enabled the rail/ICD segment to
report a 500 bps YoY improvement in EBITDA margin. As the Faridabad ICD becoming operational and expected to gain in
the next couple of quarters, throughput of the rail/ICD segment is expected to improve further. GDL is planning to develop
Ahmedabad ICD in next 12-24 months.
5 www.jhaveritrade.com
Gateway Distriparks Ltd.
Company Analysis
Standalone Container handling facility
Development of fourth container terminal
600
7915
Strong growth is expected in Indian container logistic market
Cold chain logistics : an emerging segment in Indian logistic industry
The key growth driver for GDL will be ICD and Rail segment in future
Q1 FY 15 : Quarter update
• Gateway Distriparks reported consolidated growth of 14% increase to ` 279 Cr. for June'14 quarter, lead by a
43% increase in revenue from cold chain and Snowman business.
• Operating profit increase by 22% to Rs 75.34 crore. Operating profit margin increased by 190 bps to 26.9% due
to higher throughput from CFS business and higher volume growth in Snowman and Rail business resulting in
10. Gateway Distriparks Ltd.
Q3 FY 14
43.60
5.79
21.67
16.14
17.55%
14%
30%
12%
Q4 FY 14
48.20
5.79
18.13
24.27
21.59%
8%
12%
16%
Q1 FY 14
42.20
6.04
12.17
23.99
17.10%
17%
17%
17%
Q2 FY 14
45.61
5.49
26.68
13.44
18.14%
16%
35%
10%
6 www.jhaveritrade.com
better economies of scale for the company.
• Lower other income, down by 15% and higher interest and depreciation costs up by 35% and 28% restricted the
PBT growth to 14%. After paying total tax up by 11% and MI down by 58%, consolidated PAT for June'14 quarter
stood at Rs 36.92 crore, up by 23% YoY.
Segment Performance
• Net sales from CFS business which constitute about 28% of total revenue were up by 8% to Rs 79.06 crore. PBIT
from CFS segment was down by 3% to Rs 23.24 crore and PBIT margin stood at 49.4%.
• Net sale from Rail Logistics which constitute about 54% of total revenue was up by 9% to Rs 151.71 crore. PBIT
from Rail Logistics business stood at Rs 21.71 crore, up by 78% YoY and PBIT margin stood at 14.3%.
• Revenue from Snowman cold chain logistic business which constitutes about 18% of total sales grew by about
43% to Rs 49.52 crore. EIBT from Cold chain Logistics business stood at Rs 6.23 crore and PBIT margin stood at
12.6%.
Key Financials
EBIT (` in Cr.)
Cold Chain Logistics
Container Freight Station
Container Rail Logistics
EBIT Margin (%)
Cold Chain Logistics
Container Freight Station
Container Rail Logistics
Key update from Q1 FY 15 conference call
• Gateway Rail started operations from Faridabad in 1st week of Aug'14. This is a big breakthrough for the company
as there is a sizable volume waited to be channelized through railway segment in between Faridabad, Delhi and
the corridor region.
• Management is confident of ramping up and volume in CFS segment to kick start before the year FY 2015 ends.
There was some further improvement in port throughput in July'14 that was visible.
• Currently the rail division has about 80000 pallets as compared to about 66000 to start with in FY 2014.
Management expects further about 6000 more pallets will be added to reach 86000 pallets by end of March 2015.
• Realization in Mumbai CFS improved on QoQ basis. Value added services increased like warehousing, export
proportion has gone up. These activities give more profitability and should drive the margins going forward.
Company Analysis
11. Gateway Distriparks Ltd.
107.9
874.19
1003.63
50.96
234.31
183.35
12.46
516.61
389.41
2.08
138.48
117.87
92.99
72.38
108
1120.19
1143.41
132.26
282.9
150.64
9.5
602.46
444.89
2.26
174.26
154.36
124.02
104.12
108.28
1176.67
1230.3
156.38
308.14
151.76
14.36
821.5
586.17
2.79
264.16
249.26
201.35
186.45
108.5
1342.93
1509.55
129.12
310.14
181.02
15.49
954.02
726.58
3.51
261.87
243.19
192.02
173.34
7 www.jhaveritrade.com
Company Analysis
• Capex for FY 2015 for cold chain segment will be around Rs 125 crore, for rail will be around Rs 75 crore and no
major capex is expected in CFS business.
Key Financials
Financial Statements
Equity Paid Up
Networth
Capital Employed
Gross Block (Excl. Reval. Res.)
Net Working Capital ( Incl. Def. Tax)
Current Assets ( Incl. Def. Tax)
Current Liabilities and Provisions ( Incl. Def. Tax)
Total Assets/Liabilities
Net Sales
Other Income
Value Of Output
Cost of Production
Selling Cost
PBIDT
PBDT
PBIT
PBT
PAT after Minority Interest
Adjusted PAT
FY 10
664.26
1057.06
516.61
79.14
79.12
FY 11
687.94
1270.83
602.46
96.75
97.55
FY 12
747.78
1328.43
821.45
132.03
131.61
FY 13
788.68
1523.95
954.07
126.69
126.7
14. BUY BTWN 157-163 SL 148 TGT 174-179 BUY BTWN 2840-2920 SL 2705 TGT 3095-3150
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Monthly Technical Picks
Monthly Technical Picks
HEXAWARE DRREDDY
UNICHEMLAB RCOM
10
On weekly chart, stock has taken support of median line
of its andrew pitchfork pattern. Now, stock is likely to
move towards upper line of its andrew pitchfork pattern.
Weekly stochastic is in positive crossover suggesting
buying interest. Also stock is trading above its 20 week
SMA.
On weekly chart, stock has given crossover above
median line of its andrew pitchfork pattern. Breakout
point is 2920. Weekly stochastic is in positive crossover
suggesting buying interest. Also stock is trading above
its 21 week EMA.
On weekly chart, stock has taken support of lower line of
its andrew pitchfork pattern. Now, stock is likely to move
towards median line of its andrew pitchfork pattern.
Weekly stochastic is in positive crossover suggesting
buying interest. Also stock is trading above its 21 week
EMA.
On weekly chart, stock is trading below neckline of its
head and shoulder pattern. Here, breakdown point is
120.Weekly stochastic is in negative crossover
suggesting selling interest. Also stock is trading below
its 21 week EMA.
SELL BTWN 117-121 SL 129 TGT 108-101
BUY BTWN 214-223 SL 202 TGT 238-249
15. 71910607.29
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Mutual Fund
Can I Really Save Tax And Aim To Earn More
At The Same Time?
Take the ELSS (sec 80C) Advantage
ELSS V/S PPF
2850000.00
6785376.11
Total Investments PPF ELSS
11
Advantage 1 - Tax Free Returns
Income / Returns in the form of Dividend or Capital
(On Redemption) are Totally Tax Free.
Gains
Advantage 2 - Lower Lock In Period
In comparison to the various other investment avenues
Under section 80C of the income Tax Act, ELSS has the
Shortest lock in Period 3 Years.
Advantage 3 - Better Return
Since there is period of 3 years, the fund manager has The
opportunity to invest the funds for long term as he does not
Have to worry about sudden redemption pressures. i.e.
there is More stability in terms of exit
Advantage 4 - Low Expense
Expanses are quit low in ELSS compare to other options
Available for tax planning.
Particulars
Lock-in Period (Yrs)
Return CAGR (%)
Taxation on returns
PPF
15
8
Interest is
Tax Free
NSC
6
8
Interest is
Taxable
Bank FDs
5
8.5
Interest is
Taxable
Post Office
Time Deposits
5
7.5
Interest is
Taxable
ELSS
3
Linked to Market
Div as well as
cap Gain are Exempt
Interesting analysis of HDFC TaxSaver Fund (ELSS) v/s PPF
Consider an example, where investor A has Invested 150000/- p.a. in PPF since 1996 whereas Investor B has chosen
the HDFC Tax Saver Fund (ELSS) route. Investor B has Invested 150000/- p.a. in HDFC Tax Saver Fund for the same
period.
80000000.00
70000000.00
60000000.00
50000000.00
40000000.00
30000000.00
20000000.00
10000000.00
0.00
Let us see how the investments of both the Investors A & B fared in the last 19 years. The Below table shows the wealth
created by Investor A and investor B in the last 19 years. Investor A who Chose PPF, has gathered Rs.67.85 lacs, which
is almost 2.38 times the investment made. On the other Side, investor B who chose the HDFC Tax Saver Fund (ELSS)
Route has generated a Wealth of Rs. 7.19 Crores, which is almost 25 times the Investment made.
16. Current
Value
PPF Investments HDFC TaxSaver Fund
Sensex
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Mutual Fund
Can I Really Save Tax And Aim To Earn More
At The Same Time?
Take the ELSS (sec 80C) Advantage
Investment
Per Annum
12
Time
Horizon
19
19
Investment
Made In
PPF
HDFC TaxSaver(ELSS)
150000
150000
Investment
Till Date
28.5 Lacs
28.5 Lacs
67.85 Lacs
7.19 Crores
HDFC Tax Saver Fund V/S PPF
Period
29/03/1996
31/03/1997
31/03/1998
31/03/1999
31/03/2000
30/03/2001
28/03/2002
31/03/2003
31/03/2004
31/03/2005
31/03/2006
30/03/2007
31/03/2008
31/03/2009
31/03/2010
31/03/2011
30/03/2012
28/03/2013
31/03/2014
Amount
Deposited
Every Year
150000.00
150000.00
150000.00
150000.00
150000.00
150000.00
150000.00
150000.00
150000.00
150000.00
150000.00
150000.00
150000.00
150000.00
150000.00
150000.00
150000.00
150000.00
150000.00
Total
Investments
150000.00
300000.00
450000.00
600000.00
750000.00
900000.00
1050000.00
1200000.00
1350000.00
1500000.00
1650000.00
1800000.00
1950000.00
2100000.00
2250000.00
2400000.00
2550000.00
2700000.00
2850000.00
-
12.00%
12.00%
12.00%
11.00%
9.50%
9.00%
8.00%
8.00%
8.00%
8.00%
8.00%
8.00%
8.00%
8.00%
8.00%
8.60%
8.80%
8.70%
150000.00
318000.00
506160.00
716899.20
945758.11
1185605.13
1442309.59
1707694.36
1994309.91
2303854.70
2638163.08
2999216.13
3389153.42
3810285.69
4265108.55
4756317.23
5315360.51
5933112.24
6599293.00
10.00
9.04
12.40
19.84
41.56
15.72
19.86
18.64
40.12
67.56
131.22
133.88
152.02
97.06
205.68
232.90
223.70
225.33
276.79
150000.00
285600.00
541752.21
1161391.29
3443000.68
2781196.15
3663648.57
3588590.61
7874518.29
13408504.04
26195119.97
26875917.35
30666999.71
19730522.25
41959485.46
47662697.76
45929929.11
46414599.58
57165411.51
3367
3361
3893
3740
5001
3604
3469
3049
5591
6493
11280
13072
15644
9901
17692
19445
17478
18865
22386
Rete of
Interest
Valuation
in PPF Nav Valuation
Value as
02/08/2014 - 28,50,000.00 8.70% 67,85,376.11 348.19 7,19,10,607.29 25481
17. Commodity Outlook: BULLION & ENERGY
Gold’s safe-haven buying dried up after Russia's Defense Ministry said it had finished military exercises near its border with
Ukraine. Overall sentiments remain weak while recovery seen in the late session, paring losses on safe-haven buying as
equity markets slid. Gold has traded in a tight range around $1,300 over the past few weeks, supported by investor
expectations that the Fed could raise rates soon.
Gold is usually seen as an insurance against political and financial risk, which burnish its appeal as an alternative
investment. Sources had expected jobless claims to rise by 2,000 to 305,000 last week, and the numbers confirmed market
expectations for the Federal Reserve to close its monthly bond-buying stimulus program in October and begin hiking
interest rates afterwards in 2015. Loose monetary policies such as Fed asset purchases bolster gold by suppressing long
term interest rates, which weakens the dollar, bullion’s traditional hedge.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank said it was maintaining its benchmark interest rate at a record-low 0.15%, in line
with market expectations. The central bank also held its marginal lending at 0.40% and left its deposit facility rate
unchanged at -0.10%.Speaking at the ECB’s post-policy meeting press conference, Draghi said that the central bank will
continue to monitor developments closely and will consider all instruments available to support growth.
Key resistance at Comex is $1340 & MCX at 28800. Key support at Comex is $1265 and at MCX is at 27400.
Crucial resistance is at $20.40 and support is at $18.80. On MCX Crucial resistance is at 44200 and support is at
40800.
RECOMMENDATION : BUY SILVER @ 41500 SL 40000 TGT 44500
Crude oil continued its drop towards $92 a barrel with weak economic data clouding the outlook for demand. Germany's
economy shrank in the second quarter and France again failed to conjure up any growth, snuffing out any signs of a
recovery in the euro zone which is now also weighed down by tit-for-tat sanctions with Russia. The European news came a
couple of days after China's implied oil demand dropped 6 percent in July from June as crude runs fell slightly and the
world's largest energy consumer exported its highest net volume of fuel so far this year.
In the oil producing Middle East, Libya is set to resume oil exports from its largest port, Es Sider, in a few days after being
closed for almost a year by protests, a National Oil Corporation official said. Global oil demand growth will accelerate next
year as the world economy expands and will again be met by rising supplies from the United States and Canada, further
eroding OPEC's market share. But the International Energy Agency (IEA) sQaid in its monthly report that risks to oil
production in several regions remained acute.
While on the other hand Natural gas too dropped as a break in a U.S. heat wave prompted traders to head for the exits.
Updated weather-forecasting models predicted cooler-than normal weather over the next week or so, before warmer
weather moves in across much of the Central part of the country over the subsequent 6-10-days. Demand for natural gas
tends to fluctuate in the summer based on hot weather and air conditioning use. Inventories rose by 70 billion cubic feet in
the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change is a build of 45 billion cubic feet. Injections of gas into
storage have surpassed the five-year average for 19 consecutive weeks, alleviating concerns over tightening supplies.
Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.467 trillion cubic feet.
Crucial resistance is at $100 and support is at $90 at Nymex. On MCX, resistance is at 6000 and support is at
Natural gas is getting support at 222.00 and below same could see a test of 210.00 level, and resistance is
www.jhaveritrade.com
Commodity Outlook
RECOMMENDATION : BUY GOLD @ 27900 SL 27300 TGT 28800
5400.
RECOMMENDATION : SELL CRUDE OIL @ 5900 SL 6100 TGT 5400
now likely to be seen at 244.00, a move above could see prices testing 258.00.
RECOMMENDATION : SELL NAT.GAS @ 245 SL 258 TGT 218
13
TECHNICAL VIEW
GOLD:
SILVER:
TECHNICAL VIEW
CRUDE OIL:
NATURAL GAS:
18. Commodity Outlook: Base Metals
Base metals prices showed mixed node though prices seen underprices dragged by increased supply and lacklustre
demand from top consumer China. Buoyant exports from China pushed its trade surplus to a record last month, fuelling
optimism that global demand will help counter pressure on the domestic economy from a weakening property sector.
Aluminium prices showed more than one and half percent gains on the speculation that the market could remain in deficit
beyond 2015 but that historically high global aluminium inventories are likely to prevent much of a rise in prices.
Nickel prices dropped by half percent however downside seen limited as support seen after report that Norilsk Nickel, said
that refined nickel prices are still too low, particularly if nickel markets are to move into a deficit next year on the expectation
that Indonesia’s mineral ore export ban remains in effect. Also support seen after the update that the Ramu nickel and cobalt
mine in Papua New Guinea was shut by its Chinese owners after it was attacked by villagers, according to media reports.
Nickel inventories in warehouses monitored by the LME extended gains to a record after China, the biggest producer and
consumer, shipped more metal out than it imported amid a financing scandal.
TECHNICAL VIEW
COPPER:
Now copper is getting support at 406.00 and below same could see a test of 396.00 level, and resistance is now
PROFIT /
LOSS
MARGIN
REQUIRED
www.jhaveritrade.com
likely to be seen at 428.00, a move above could see prices testing 442.00.
RECOMMENDATION : SELL COPPER @ 428 SL 440 TGT 400
NICKEL:
Nickel is getting support at 1110 and below same could see a test of 1070 level, and resistance is now likely to be
seen at 1170, a move above could see prices testing 1210 .
RECOMMENDATION : BUY NICKEL @ 1110 SL 1070 TGT 1200
Zinc is getting support at 136.00 and below same could see a test of 128.00 level, and resistance is now likely to be
ZINC:
seen at 144.20, a move above could see prices testing 150.00.
RECOMMENDATION : BUY ZINC @ 137 SL 133 TGT 148
Lead is getting support at 131.80 and below same could see a test of 126.60 level, and resistance is now likely to be
LEAD:
seen at 139.20, a move above could see prices testing 145.00.
RECOMMENDATION : BUY LEAD @ 132 SL 128 TGT 140
ALUMINIUM: Aluminium is getting support at 118.00 and below same could see a test of 113.20 level, and resistance is now
likely to be seen at 127.40, a move above could see prices testing 132.80.
RECOMMENDATION : BUY ALUMINIUM @ 119 SL 114 TGT 128
Commodity Outlook
STOP LOSS
CALLS
14
JULY 2014 CALL PERFORMANCE REPORT
COMMODITY
GOLD
GOLD MINI
SILVER
SILVER MINI
COPPER
CRUDE OIL
NATURAL GAS
NICKEL
LEAD
ZINC
ALUMINIUM
TOTAL
CALLS
14
1
11
3
13
24
11
6
5
10
8
PROFIT
CALLS
10
0
5
0
3
14
5
5
3
8
6
1
0
3
2
2
4
3
0
1
1
0
CALLS NOT
ACTIVE
0
1
2
1
4
4
3
0
1
0
1
EARLY
EXIT
3
0
1
0
4
2
0
1
0
1
1
67800
0
12000
-2800
3300
64700
6250
17125
13500
24250
23000
138903
0
92460
11313
19437
30909
18356
17309
32909
34733
29100
TOTAL 106 59 17 17 13 229125 425429
19. Say...
Good Bye to
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20. Date Time in IST Country/Event
6:30am
7:15am
1:30pm
All Day
7:15pm
7:30pm
2:30pm
6:30am
7:15am
1:30pm
2:30pm
7:30pm
5:00pm
5:15pm
5:45pm
6:00pm
1:40pm
7:15pm
7:30pm
8:00pm
8:30pm
6:00pm
Tentative
All Day
7:00am
Tentative
11:00am
5:00pm
7:30pm
7:30pm
8:00pm
11:30pm
7:30am
6:00pm
8:00pm
2:30pm
6:00pm
7:25pm
7:30pm
CNY Manufacturing PMI
CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI
EUR Final Manufacturing PMI
USD Bank Holiday
USD Final Manufacturing PMI
EUR PPI m/m
USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
USD Construction Spending m/m
USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
USD ISM Manufacturing Prices
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI
CNY HSBC Services PMI
EUR Final Services PMI
EUR Retail Sales m/m
EUR Revised GDP q/q
USD Factory Orders m/m
EUR Retail PMI
USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y
EUR Minimum Bid Rate
USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
USD Trade Balance
USD Unemployment Claims
USD Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q
USD Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q
USD Final Services PMI
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
USD Natural Gas Storage
USD Crude Oil Inventories
USD Non-Farm Employment Change
USD Unemployment Rate
USD Treasury Currency Report
CNY Bank Holiday
CNY CPI y/y
CNY PPI y/y
CNY Trade Balance
CNY Industrial Production y/y
CNY Retail Sales y/y
USD NFIB Small Business Index
USD JOLTS Job Openings
USD Wholesale Inventories m/m
USD Crude Oil Inventories
USD Federal Budget Balance
CNY CB Leading Index m/m
USD Unemployment Claims
USD Natural Gas Storage
EUR Industrial Production m/m
EUR Employment Change q/q
USD Core Retail Sales m/m
USD Retail Sales m/m
USD Import Prices m/m
USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
USD Business Inventories m/m
Date Time in IST Country/Event
Mon Sep 15
Tue Sep 16
Wed Sep 17
Thu Sep 18
Fri Sep 19
Mon Sep 22
Tue Sep 23
Wed Sep 24
Thu Sep 25
Fri Sep 26
Mon Sep 29
Tue Sep 30
2:30pm
6:00pm
6:45pm
2:30pm
6:00pm
6:30pm
2:30pm
6:00pm
7:30pm
8:00pm
11:30pm
6:00pm
7:30pm
8:00pm
7:30pm
1:30pm
7:30pm
6:30pm
7:30pm
7:15am
7:30pm
8:00pm
1:30pm
6:00pm
7:15pm
8:00pm
6:00pm
7:25pm
6:00pm
7:30pm
1:40pm
2:30pm
6:30pm
7:15pm
7:30pm
Trading Options Benefit of Online Trading
EUR Trade Balance
USD Empire State Manufacturing Index
USD Capacity Utilization Rate
USD Industrial Production m/m
EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment
USD PPI m/m
USD Core PPI m/m
USD TIC Long-Term Purchases
EUR Final CPI y/y
EUR Final Core CPI y/y
USD Core CPI m/m
USD CPI m/m
USD Current Account
USD NAHB Housing Market Index
USD Crude Oil Inventories
USD FOMC Statement
USD Federal Funds Rate
USD Building Permits
USD Unemployment Claims
USD Housing Starts
USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
USD Natural Gas Storage
EUR Current Account
USD CB Leading Index m/m
EUR Consumer Confidence
USD Existing Home Sales
USD HPI m/m
USD Richmond Manufacturing Index
USD New Home Sales
USD Crude Oil Inventories
CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR Flash Services PMI
USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
USD Unemployment Claims
USD Durable Goods Orders m/m
USD Flash Manufacturing PMI
USD Flash Services PMI
USD Natural Gas Storage
USD Final GDP q/q
USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
USD Core PCE Price Index m/m
USD Personal Spending m/m
USD Personal Income m/m
USD Pending Home Sales m/m
EUR Retail PMI
EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y
EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
EUR Unemployment Rate
USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y
USD Chicago PMI
USD CB Consumer Confidence
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DISCLAIMER : Trading and Investment decision taken on your consultation are solely at the discretion of the traders/investors.We are not liable for any loss, which occur as a result of our recommendations. This document has
been prepared on the of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable.
NSE:INB/F/E 230823233 BSE: INB/F 010823236 NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-166-2000, MCX-SX: INE 26082333 AMFI ARN 3524 MCX: TM 29040 / FMC REG NO. MCS / TC / CORP / 0963 MCDEX: TM 00749 / FMC REG NO.
NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0736 / NSEL TM 10110* Note: Dealing in Commodity Segment through its group company Jhaveri Credits & capital Ltd.
Distributors for IPOs & Mutual Funds. Past performance is not a measure for future returns.