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by
          Justin Vandever, PE, AECOM Oakland
         Darryl Hatheway, CFM, AECOM San Diego




H2O May 26, 2011
CCAMP / OPC Study




 Agenda
     • FEMA Risk MAP and NFIP
     • Introduce CCAMP Open Coast Study
     • Process & Schedule of Studies
     • Coastal Data and Resources
     • Study Methods & Scope

H2O May 26, 2011
Vision
 Risk Mapping, Assessment and Planning (Risk MAP) Vision:
   To deliver quality data that increases public awareness and leads to action that
   reduces risk to life and property

 Goals
 FEMA will collaborate with federal, state,
 and local stakeholders to achieve the
 following goals under Risk MAP:
   Address gaps in flood hazard data
   Ensure public awareness through outreach
   Lead and support hazard mitigation planning
   Provide an enhanced digital platform
   Align risk analysis programs

H2O May 26, 2011
CCAMP / OPC Study
                   A Risk MAP project with a coastal focus


                       California
          Coastal Analysis and Mapping Project
               Open Pacific Coast Study


Re-study all California                           Re-map the coastal
coastal counties along                            flood, wave hazard,
the open Pacific                                  and associated risks.
coastline.

                            SF Bay | Open Coast
                           www.r9coastal.org

H2O May 26, 2011
CCAMP / OPC Study - Phases
                   Del Norte



                   Humboldt
Michael
                                                 Phase 1 (2010)
Baker Jr.          Mendocino
                                                 Ten Counties
                   Sonoma
                                                 Northern and Central
QA/QC              Marin
                   San Francisco                 California Coast
                   San Mateo
                   Santa Cruz

AECOM              Monterey


                   San Luis Obispo
                                     Santa
                                     Barbara
                                                             Objective:
        Phase 2 (2012)               Ventura                 Determine new
          Five Counties              Los
                                     Angeles
                                                             BFEs and flood
               Southern              Orange                  extents
        California Coast             San Diego

H2O May 26, 2011
CCAMP / OPC Study - Process
                                                                   Where we are right now:

                                                   Discovery       • Scoping Meetings
                                                                   (Kick-off Meetings,




                               TAP R E V IE W
                                                                   Field Recon, Outreach)
                                                    Data
                                                  Acquisition      • Data Acquisition
                                                                   (LIDAR, Tide Records,
                   OUTREAC H
                                                                   Offshore Waves,
                                                 Engineering       Bathymetry)
                                                  Analyses
                                                                   • Engineering Analyses
                                                  Floodplain       (Wave Setup, Dune
                                                   Mapping         Erosion, Wave Runup)


                                                     Map
                                                  Production

                                                Post-Preliminary
                                                  Processing       Fall-Winter 2014


H2O May 26, 2011
CCAMP / OPC Study – Schedule
      Initial Kick-Off Meeting      March-May 2011
      Field Reconnaissance          March-May 2011
      Engineering Analysis          Now through Fall 2012
      Floodplain Mapping            Summer 2012 – Spring 2013
      Preliminary Map Production    Winter 2013 – Fall 2013
      Post-Preliminary Processing   Summer 2013 – Fall 2014




H2O May 26, 2011
Apply “Final Draft Guidelines
  for Coastal Flood hazard
  Analysis and Mapping for the
  Pacific Coast of the United
  States”(dated Jan. 2005)
     • Phase 1 – Central &
     Northern CA
     (10 coastal counties)
     • Phase 2 – Southern CA
     (5 coastal counties)
H2O May 26, 2011
                                  8
Don’t be fooled! Coastal flood analysis dates to early 1980s
H2O May 26, 2011
                                                                9
H2O May 26, 2011
                   10
http://seafloor.csumb.edu/csmp/csmp.html




                                         Copyright © 2009 California Seafloor Mapping Project
                   Fugro © 2005
H2O May 26, 2011
                                                                                                11
Bodega Bay   Other Sources:
                                • Coastal Commission
                                • UC Santa Cruz
                                • USGS
                                • CSMW

H2O May 26, 2011
                                                       12
http://www.californiacoastline.org/




Photography and website Copyright ©
2002-2010 Kenneth & Gabrielle Adelman


    Others: bing.com
H2O May 26, 2011
                                        13
H2O May 26, 2011
                   14
H2O May 26, 2011
                   15
H2O May 26, 2011
                   16
OWI              NOAA


                         Scripps


                                   UW




BakerAECOM
        Transect-based
        analysis


H2O May 26, 2011
                                        17
• Deepwater Waves:
 OceanWeather Inc. (50-year
 deepwater wave hindcast 1960-
 2010)
 • Nearshore Wave
 Transformation: Scripps
 Institution of Oceanography
 MOnitoring and Prediction
 (MOP) System


H2O May 26, 2011
                                 18
Andrew Cox
Vince Cardone




• Global Reanalysis of Ocean Waves
(GROW) Model
• Nested model grids
• Spectra archive/output points at coast
H2O May 26, 2011
                                           19
H2O May 26, 2011
                   20
Study Methods:
          Nearshore Wave Transformation
“Changes in wave characteristics
as waves propagate from
deepwater to shallow water”

• Nearshore bathymetry changes
wave height and direction
•Flooding at the shoreline not
completely described by deepwater
waves
• Need mechanism to transform
wave spectra from deepwater to
edge of surf zone

H2O May 26, 2011
Study Methods:
 Coastal Data Information Program (Scripps)




H2O May 26, 2011
Study Methods:
MOP Nearshore Wave Prediction Sites (Scripps)
                                  Julie Thomas
                                  Bill O’Reilly
                                  Michele Okihiro
                                  Corey Olfe




 H2O May 26, 2011
Study Methods:
   Coastal Data Information Program (Scripps)
Datawell Directional Waverider




 H2O May 26, 2011
Previous NorCal Study Methods:
         Ott Water Engineers (1984) Study




                    12!



H2O May 26, 2011
• 1-D Transect-based wave
   hazard analyses
       • Wave Setup
       • Wave Runup
       • Wave Overtopping
       • Overland Waves
       • Dune & Bluff Erosion
   • Extreme value analysis of
   annual maxima of computed
   total water levels
H2O May 26, 2011
                                 26
Dune Erosion:
                                Komar geometric
                                model with K&D
                                time response factor




 Bluff Erosion:
 Probabilistic cliff failure?
 Data needs…

H2O May 26, 2011
                                                   27
H2O May 26, 2011
                   28
Dynamic Setup = 2.9 ft


                     Static Setup = 2.8 ft




H2O May 26, 2011
                                             29
• 1%-annual-chance (base
 flood) and 0.2% total water   LiMW

 level floodplains               A




• Mapping of coastal hazard
 zones and BFEs (and
 primary frontal dune VE
 Zones)
• (Sea level rise and long-
                      long-
 term shoreline change
 not included at this time)

H2O May 26, 2011
                                      30
The end product:




H2O May 26, 2011
                                      31
www.r9coastal.org
H2O May 26, 2011
Questions?




   Big Sur River, Andrew Molera State Park
H2O May 26, 2011

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H2O Presentation 26May2011

  • 1. by Justin Vandever, PE, AECOM Oakland Darryl Hatheway, CFM, AECOM San Diego H2O May 26, 2011
  • 2. CCAMP / OPC Study Agenda • FEMA Risk MAP and NFIP • Introduce CCAMP Open Coast Study • Process & Schedule of Studies • Coastal Data and Resources • Study Methods & Scope H2O May 26, 2011
  • 3. Vision Risk Mapping, Assessment and Planning (Risk MAP) Vision: To deliver quality data that increases public awareness and leads to action that reduces risk to life and property Goals FEMA will collaborate with federal, state, and local stakeholders to achieve the following goals under Risk MAP: Address gaps in flood hazard data Ensure public awareness through outreach Lead and support hazard mitigation planning Provide an enhanced digital platform Align risk analysis programs H2O May 26, 2011
  • 4. CCAMP / OPC Study A Risk MAP project with a coastal focus California Coastal Analysis and Mapping Project Open Pacific Coast Study Re-study all California Re-map the coastal coastal counties along flood, wave hazard, the open Pacific and associated risks. coastline. SF Bay | Open Coast www.r9coastal.org H2O May 26, 2011
  • 5. CCAMP / OPC Study - Phases Del Norte Humboldt Michael Phase 1 (2010) Baker Jr. Mendocino Ten Counties Sonoma Northern and Central QA/QC Marin San Francisco California Coast San Mateo Santa Cruz AECOM Monterey San Luis Obispo Santa Barbara Objective: Phase 2 (2012) Ventura Determine new Five Counties Los Angeles BFEs and flood Southern Orange extents California Coast San Diego H2O May 26, 2011
  • 6. CCAMP / OPC Study - Process Where we are right now: Discovery • Scoping Meetings (Kick-off Meetings, TAP R E V IE W Field Recon, Outreach) Data Acquisition • Data Acquisition (LIDAR, Tide Records, OUTREAC H Offshore Waves, Engineering Bathymetry) Analyses • Engineering Analyses Floodplain (Wave Setup, Dune Mapping Erosion, Wave Runup) Map Production Post-Preliminary Processing Fall-Winter 2014 H2O May 26, 2011
  • 7. CCAMP / OPC Study – Schedule Initial Kick-Off Meeting March-May 2011 Field Reconnaissance March-May 2011 Engineering Analysis Now through Fall 2012 Floodplain Mapping Summer 2012 – Spring 2013 Preliminary Map Production Winter 2013 – Fall 2013 Post-Preliminary Processing Summer 2013 – Fall 2014 H2O May 26, 2011
  • 8. Apply “Final Draft Guidelines for Coastal Flood hazard Analysis and Mapping for the Pacific Coast of the United States”(dated Jan. 2005) • Phase 1 – Central & Northern CA (10 coastal counties) • Phase 2 – Southern CA (5 coastal counties) H2O May 26, 2011 8
  • 9. Don’t be fooled! Coastal flood analysis dates to early 1980s H2O May 26, 2011 9
  • 10. H2O May 26, 2011 10
  • 11. http://seafloor.csumb.edu/csmp/csmp.html Copyright © 2009 California Seafloor Mapping Project Fugro © 2005 H2O May 26, 2011 11
  • 12. Bodega Bay Other Sources: • Coastal Commission • UC Santa Cruz • USGS • CSMW H2O May 26, 2011 12
  • 13. http://www.californiacoastline.org/ Photography and website Copyright © 2002-2010 Kenneth & Gabrielle Adelman Others: bing.com H2O May 26, 2011 13
  • 14. H2O May 26, 2011 14
  • 15. H2O May 26, 2011 15
  • 16. H2O May 26, 2011 16
  • 17. OWI NOAA Scripps UW BakerAECOM Transect-based analysis H2O May 26, 2011 17
  • 18. • Deepwater Waves: OceanWeather Inc. (50-year deepwater wave hindcast 1960- 2010) • Nearshore Wave Transformation: Scripps Institution of Oceanography MOnitoring and Prediction (MOP) System H2O May 26, 2011 18
  • 19. Andrew Cox Vince Cardone • Global Reanalysis of Ocean Waves (GROW) Model • Nested model grids • Spectra archive/output points at coast H2O May 26, 2011 19
  • 20. H2O May 26, 2011 20
  • 21. Study Methods: Nearshore Wave Transformation “Changes in wave characteristics as waves propagate from deepwater to shallow water” • Nearshore bathymetry changes wave height and direction •Flooding at the shoreline not completely described by deepwater waves • Need mechanism to transform wave spectra from deepwater to edge of surf zone H2O May 26, 2011
  • 22. Study Methods: Coastal Data Information Program (Scripps) H2O May 26, 2011
  • 23. Study Methods: MOP Nearshore Wave Prediction Sites (Scripps) Julie Thomas Bill O’Reilly Michele Okihiro Corey Olfe H2O May 26, 2011
  • 24. Study Methods: Coastal Data Information Program (Scripps) Datawell Directional Waverider H2O May 26, 2011
  • 25. Previous NorCal Study Methods: Ott Water Engineers (1984) Study 12! H2O May 26, 2011
  • 26. • 1-D Transect-based wave hazard analyses • Wave Setup • Wave Runup • Wave Overtopping • Overland Waves • Dune & Bluff Erosion • Extreme value analysis of annual maxima of computed total water levels H2O May 26, 2011 26
  • 27. Dune Erosion: Komar geometric model with K&D time response factor Bluff Erosion: Probabilistic cliff failure? Data needs… H2O May 26, 2011 27
  • 28. H2O May 26, 2011 28
  • 29. Dynamic Setup = 2.9 ft Static Setup = 2.8 ft H2O May 26, 2011 29
  • 30. • 1%-annual-chance (base flood) and 0.2% total water LiMW level floodplains A • Mapping of coastal hazard zones and BFEs (and primary frontal dune VE Zones) • (Sea level rise and long- long- term shoreline change not included at this time) H2O May 26, 2011 30
  • 31. The end product: H2O May 26, 2011 31
  • 33. Questions? Big Sur River, Andrew Molera State Park H2O May 26, 2011