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Investor Pain Index




                               0%
                                       50%
                                                  100%
                                                            150%
                                                                     200%
                                                                              250%
                      Sep-08




                      Oct-08




                      Nov-08




t                     Dec-08
Investor Pain Index
µ




                      Jan-09
VIX pain
Dow




                      Feb-09




                      Mar-09
                               6,000
                                       7,000
                                                  8,000
                                                            9,000
                                                                     10,000
                                                                              11,000




                                          Dow Jones Industrial Average
                                                             τ
                                                             µ
AAII Bearish Sentiment                                          Bearish Sentiment + 2 StdDev
                                Current Bearish level in perspective                            S&P performance 24 mos. fwd
                                100 per. Mov. Avg. (AAII Bearish Sentiment)
                    80.0%                                                                                                                        100%
                                                           In 2002, 2004, and 2005, bearish
                                                           sentiment was nearly as high as             Maximum bearish
                    70.0%                                                                                                                        80%
                                                           it was in March 2009; 24 months             sentiment in 21 years
                                                           later (as indicated by the black
                                                           dots), share prices rose
                    60.0%                                                                                                                        60%




                                                                                                                                                        S&P 24 mo. fws performance
Bearish Sentiment




                    50.0%                                                                                                                        40%


                    40.0%                                                                                                                        20%


                    30.0%                                                                                                                        0%


                    20.0%                                                                                                                        -20%


                    10.0%                                                                                                                        -40%


                    0.0%                                                                                                                         -60%
                       Dec-01       Dec-02        Dec-03              Dec-04                  Dec-05             Dec-06        Dec-07   Dec-08

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Investor Pain Index and Bearish Sentiment

  • 1. Investor Pain Index 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 t Dec-08 Investor Pain Index µ Jan-09 VIX pain Dow Feb-09 Mar-09 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 Dow Jones Industrial Average τ µ
  • 2. AAII Bearish Sentiment Bearish Sentiment + 2 StdDev Current Bearish level in perspective S&P performance 24 mos. fwd 100 per. Mov. Avg. (AAII Bearish Sentiment) 80.0% 100% In 2002, 2004, and 2005, bearish sentiment was nearly as high as Maximum bearish 70.0% 80% it was in March 2009; 24 months sentiment in 21 years later (as indicated by the black dots), share prices rose 60.0% 60% S&P 24 mo. fws performance Bearish Sentiment 50.0% 40% 40.0% 20% 30.0% 0% 20.0% -20% 10.0% -40% 0.0% -60% Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08