AAII Bearish Sentiment index & JSCO Pain index 12/31/2001 through 0126/2010

1. AAII Bearish Sentiment Bearish Sentiment + 2 StdDev This week's bearish reading
Normal Bearish JSCO Pain Index (S&P weekly data) JSCO Pain Index 8 wk Avg
S&P 6 months forward performance
80.0% 50.0%
In 2002, 2004, and 2005, bearish
sentiment was nearly as high as it was in Maximum bearish
Bearish Sentiment and JSCO Pain Index
40.0%
70.0%
March 2009; share prices 6 months later sentiment in 21 years
(as indicated by the black dots), rose. 30.0%
S&P 6 mo. fws performance
60.0%
20.0%
50.0%
10.0%
40.0% 0.0%
-10.0%
30.0%
-20.0%
20.0%
-30.0%
10.0% Pain Index lowest
-40.0%
since June 2007
0.0% -50.0%
Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09
AAII bearish sentiment & JSCO pain index
Source: Jonathan Smith & Co. and AAII.
For education and discussion purposes only. This is neither investment advice
nor any offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past
performance is not a guarantee of any investment performance.