Presentation at the IWPLMS 2014.

1. 1
Detroit Industry, North Wall (Ford Plant at River Rouge). 1932-1933. Diego Rivera.
CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF EMPLOYMENT IN THE LONG RUN: THE SPANISH CASE 1977-2013
José-Ignacio Antón & Rafael Muñoz de Bustillo
University of Salamanca (Spain)

2. Contents of the presentation
1.
Introduction
2.
Methodology
3.
Data
4.
Results
2

3. 3
1. Introduction
Background
 Relevant literature focused on inequalities in developed countries.
 Explanations based on market forces -technology, international trade, returns to education- (versus institutional features) that refers to ‘unaivodable’ labour market issues.
 Relevant amount of literature focusing on employment polarisation (David Autor, Alan Manning, Erik Olin Wright, Eurofound…) across Economics, Sociology, Industrial Relations, etc.
 Most studies suggesting polarisation and the technical change/routinisation hypothesis as the most likely explanation.

4. 4
1. Introduction
Aims of the paper
 Exploring long-run trends with an uniform methodology to assess the extent and timing of polarisation.
 Informative for the evolution of labour market inequalities Spain, with very bad databases before mid 90s.
 Some light on some aspects of the polarisation debate (plausibility of the explanation).

5. 5
2. Methodology
The so-called ‘jobs approach’
Define the jobs: combination of an occupation (2-digit ISCO category) and a sector of activity (2-digit NACE).
Ranking (quintiles): rank the jobs according to earnings (or other variable proxying job quality)  create quintiles taking a year as reference (this is not innocous).
Monitoring the changes: explore the pattern of changes, how they shape the employment structure and some features behind it.

6. 6
2. Methodology
Creation of a job matrix
Sector of activity (2 digits)
Act 1
Act 2
…
Act N
Occupation (2 digits)
Occ 1
Job 1
Job 2
…
Job N
Occ 2
Job N+1
…
…
Job 2·N
…
…
…
…
Occ K
Job (K-1)·N
…
…
Job K·N
Mean/median wage
An example

7. 7
Many possible patterns

8. 8
Many possible patterns

9. 9
3. Data and periods of interests
oPeriods of interest
oBreaks
oDatabases

10. 10
-8-6-4-202468 197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013% of change from the 2ndquarter of the previous year Annual change of employment in Spain (%, 1978-2013)
Source: Spanish Labour Force Survey.
1977- 1985
1985- 1991
1991- 1994
1994- 2008
2008- 2011

11. 11
1977
1985
Crisis & job destruction
Expansion & job growth
1991
1994
2008
2013
Crisis & job destruction
Expansion & job growth
Crisis & job destruction
Employment cycles
Occupation
Activity
National Classification of Occupations 1979
National Classification of Occupations 1994 (compatible with ISCO-88)
National Classification of Occupations 2011 (inspired by ISCO- 08)
National Classification of Economic Activities 1974 (equivalent to NACE)
National Classification of Economic Activities 1993 (equivalent to NACE rev. 1 and 1.1)
National Classification of Economic Activities 2009 (equivalent to NACE rev. 2)

12. 12
In sum, taking into account business cycles and breaks, we analyze
o
1977-1985 (job destruction)
o
1985-1991 (job growth)
o
1991-1992 (job destruction + break)
o
1992-1993 (job destruction + break)
o
1994-2008 (job growth)
o
2008-2010 (job destruction + break)
o
2011-2013 (job destruction)
Spanish Labour Force Survey
Basic Household Budget Survey 1990-1991
Wage Structure Survey 2006 + Survey of Living Conditions 2006
Wage Structure Survey 2010
Survey of Living Conditions 2009 & 2010

13. 13
4. Results

Overall patterns

Modernisation, de-primarisation, de-industrialisation.

The rise and fall of housing.

The rise of the Welfare State.

The polarising effects of crisis.

Other issues worth mentioning.

14. 14
4. Results
Advancing some preliminary results
 Since the late 70s, modernisation of Spanish economy and labour market: de-primarisation, de-industrialisation, rise of the Welfare State, rise of temporary work, housing bubble and financial crisis, labour market crisis.
 Overall, the overall pattern is upgrading and polarisation is only relevant in economic crisis.
 If polarisation is associated to small segments and periods. Is it really so relevant?
 Should we be more cautious about deus ex machina explanations?

15. Overall patterns
15

16. 16
Source: AMECO.

17. 17
Source: Spanish Labour Force Survey.

18. 18
-600-400-2000Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute change in employment by quintile (1977-1985)
Average change in employment:
-14.3%

19. 19
-50005001,000Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute change in employment by quintile (1985-1991)
Average change in employment:
+19.1%

20. 20
-100-50050Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute change in employment by quintile (1991-1992) -100-50050Thousands of workersIIIIIIIVVAbsolute change in employment by quintile (1991-1992)
Average change in employment: -1.4%

21. 21
-200-150-100-500Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute change in employment by quintile (1992-1993)
Average change in employment:
-4.8%

22. 22
05001,0001,5002,000Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute change in employment by quintile (1994-2008)
Average change in employment:
+59%

23. 23
-600-400-2000Thousands of workersIIIIIIIVVAbsolute change in employment by quintile (2008-2010)
Average change in employment:
-10.4%

24. 24
-500-400-300-200-1000Thousands of workersIIIIIIIVVAbsolute change in employment by quintile (2011-2013)
Average change in employment: -8.3%

25. 25

26. Modernisation, de-primarisation, de- industrialisation
26

27. 27
Source: AMECO.

28. 28
Source: AMECO.

29. 29
Source: AMECO.

30. 30
-600-400-2000200Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute changes in employment by quintile and sector of activity (1977-1985) Agriculture, forestry and fishingHigh-technology industryLow-technology industryConstructionKnowledge-intensive servicesLess knowledge-intensive servicesNon-manufacturing industriesTotal

31. 31
-50005001,000Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute changes in employment by quintile and sector of activity (1985-1991) Agriculture, forestry and fishingHigh-technology industryLow-technology industryConstructionKnowledge-intensive servicesLess knowledge-intensive servicesNon-manufacturing industriesTotal

32. 32
-150-100-50050Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute changes in employment by quintile and sector of activity (1991-1992) Agriculture, forestry and fishingHigh-technology industryLow-technology industryConstructionKnowledge-intensive servicesLess knowledge-intensive servicesNon-manufacturing industriesTotal

33. 33
-50005001,0001,5002,000Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute changes in employment by quintile and sector of activity (1994-2008) Agriculture, forestry and fishingHigh-technology industryLow-technology industryConstructionKnowledge-intensive servicesLess knowledge-intensive servicesNon-manufacturing industriesTotal

34. 34
-600-400-2000Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute changes in employment by quintile and sector of activity (2008-2010) Agriculture, forestry and fishingHigh-technology industryLow-technology industryConstructionKnowledge-intensive servicesLess knowledge-intensive servicesNon-manufacturing industriesTotal

35. 35
-500-400-300-200-1000Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute changes in employment by quintile and sector of activity (2011-2013) Agriculture, forestry and fishingHigh-technology industryLow-technology industryConstructionKnowledge-intensive servicesLess knowledge-intensive servicesNon-manufacturing industriesTotal

36. The rise of the Welfare State
36

37. 37
-50005001,000Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute changes in employment by quintile and professional situation (1985-1991) Private employeesPublic employeesEmployersSelf-employed workersTotal

38. 38
-100-50050Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute changes in employment by quintile (1991-1992) Employment in Welfare State servicesTotal

39. 39
-100-50050Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute changes in employment by quintile and professional situation (1991-1992) Private employeesPublic employeesEmployersSelf-employed workersTotal

40. 40
05001,0001,5002,000Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute changes in employment by quintile (1994-2008) Employment in Welfare State servicesTotal

41. 41
-50005001,0001,5002,000Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute changes in employment by quintile and professional situation (1994-2008) Private employeesPublic employeesEmployersSelf-employed workersTotal

42. 42
-600-400-2000200Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute changes in employment by quintile (2008-2010) Employment in Welfare State servicesTotal

43. 43
-500-400-300-200-1000Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute changes in employment by quintile (2011-2013) Employment in Welfare State servicesTotal

44. 44
-600-400-2000200Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute changes in employment by quintile and professional situation (2008-2010) Private employeesPublic employeesEmployersSelf-employed workersTotal

45. 45
Thank you very much for your attention!