Joe Cortright's October 2009 presentation on the outlook for the Oregon economy.

1. Outlook for the Northwest Economy Joe Cortright – October 2009

4. Job growth slowing since 2006 National data

8. An abrupt fall This recession

9. Oregon caught in the downdraft

10. Oregon & US unemployment spiked

14. Late to the housing collapse

15. Construction decline later, but steeper

16. Durable Goods Collapsed

17. #1 in Durable Goods Dependence

19. Exports declined dramatically

20. Vulnerable to export shock Ranking among 50 States

22. Unemployment: Special Factors

23. Net migration is strong 11 th 6 th 17 th 24 th 10 th 8 th 10 th 9 th Oregon Rank Oregon net domestic migration, percent of current population Source: Census Bureau estimates 2008: Oregon ranked 8th highest in net in-bound percent of United Van Lines Moves

24. Oregon’s Labor Force Keeps Growing Source: Office of Economic Analysis; Employment Dept. data

26. GDP expected to recover Wells Fargo Securities, Monthly Outlook, October 7, 2009

27. Unemployment persists Wells Fargo Securities, Monthly Outlook, October 7, 2009

28. State forecast has bottomed

29. Alternative Scenarios September 2009 Revenue Forecast Oregon Non-Farm Employment

33. Retail sales “rebound”

36. Home prices may have “bottomed”

37. The Other Shoe: CRE Two Year Lag between residential and commercial peaks

45. “ May you live in interesting times.”

46. www.ImpresaConsulting.com Joe Cortright – June 2009

48. Debt: Still over leveraged

49. Equity: We lost $14 trillion