enterpriseSeattle 2011 Forecast - Dick Conway

1,445 views

Published on

39th Annual Economic Forecast Conference, Thursday, January 13, 2011 (Seattle, WA).

2011 Forecast - Ken Goldstein, Puget Sound Economic Forecaster

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,445
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
222
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
12
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

enterpriseSeattle 2011 Forecast - Dick Conway

  1. 1. 39th Annual Economic Forecast Conference<br />
  2. 2. 2011 FORECAST: A LOOK AHEAD <br />Moderator:<br />Emory Thomas Jr., Puget Sound Business Journal<br />Panelists:<br /><ul><li>Ken Goldstein, The Conference Board
  3. 3. Mike Dueker, Russell Investments
  4. 4. Dick Conway, Puget Sound Economic Forecaster</li></ul>www.enterpriseSeattle.org<br />
  5. 5. PUGET SOUND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK<br />Dick Conway<br />The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster<br />Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.<br />www.economicforecaster.com<br />
  6. 6. Positive Signs for the U.S. Economy<br /><ul><li>Leading indexes are rising sharply, suggesting accelerating growth.
  7. 7. Stock market has regained two-thirds of the value lost during the last plunge.
  8. 8. Spread between 3-month LIBOR and T-bill rate signals little, if any, stress in the credit markets.
  9. 9. Despite recent declines, home prices have been generally stable since March 2009.</li></li></ul><li>Puget Sound RecoveryThree Things to Think About<br /><ul><li>Puget Sound region was hard-hit by the recession and will likely trail the nation coming out of it.
  10. 10. In terms of jobs, the root of the recession was construction and financial activities.
  11. 11. The recession was far-reaching, damaging almost every state.</li></li></ul><li>The Great RecessionEmployment Change<br /> Puget United<br /> Sound States<br />Peak to trough (quarters) 8 7<br />Employment (% change) -7.4 -6.0<br /> Construction -34.1 -27.3<br /> Financial activities -17.1 -9.2<br />Peak unemployment rate (%) 9.1 10.0<br />Unemployment rate (% change)* 5.1 5.5<br />*Percentage point change.<br />
  12. 12. The Great RecessionConstruction and Financial Activities Impact<br /> Percent<br /> Change Change<br />Construction employment -45,000 -34.1<br />Financial activities employment -18,700 -17.1<br />Indirect employment* -61,200 ---<br />Total employment impact -124,900 -6.7<br />Total employment change -138,200 -7.4<br />*Due to multiplier effect.<br />
  13. 13. Puget Sound and U.S. EmploymentAnnual Percent Change<br />
  14. 14. Exports of Goods and Services<br /><ul><li>On a per capita basis, Puget Sound region tops the nation in foreign exports.
  15. 15. Boeing and Microsoft are our two biggest overseas sellers.
  16. 16. Since the mid-2009 turnaround in U.S. real GDP, exports have been the fastest growing sector.
  17. 17. The regional impact of export growth will be muted, since Boeing is close to peak production.</li></li></ul><li>Government Expenditures<br /><ul><li>The federal government was the only positive growth force during the Great Recession.
  18. 18. With the focus now on balancing the budget, it will reduce spending and trim employment.
  19. 19. Due to a record drop in tax revenue, state and local governments will also cut expenditures.
  20. 20. Financial problems in the public sector will cost the region 10,000 government jobs.</li></li></ul><li>U.S. Fixed Investment<br />
  21. 21. U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product andPersonal Consumption Expenditures<br />
  22. 22. Puget Sound Economic ForecastPercent Change<br /> 2009 2010 2011 2012<br />Employment -4.9 -1.9 1.2 2.4<br />Personal income -1.6 1.9 3.8 5.1<br />Consumer price index 0.6 0.5 1.5 1.7<br />Housing permits -50.1 22.9 4.0 36.9<br />Population 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.8<br />
  23. 23. Puget Sound Economic Forecast (2)Percent Change<br /> 2009 2010 2011 2012<br />Retail sales -4.5 3.1 4.1 4.7<br />Taxable retail sales -12.4 -1.0 3.0 7.2<br />Home sales -2.5 0.9 10.2 9.9<br />Average home price -11.7 -0.2 1.3 5.5<br />Apartment vacancy (%) 6.9 5.5 4.9 4.8<br />
  24. 24. Puget Sound Leading Index <br />and Employment<br />

×