Dfw Outlook 4 09

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Presented at the Prudential Texas Properties Awards ceremony on April 17th, 2009 by Dr. Lyssa Jenkins from the Dallas Chamber of Commerce.

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Dfw Outlook 4 09

  1. 1. Economic Profile April 2009 DALLAS REGIONAL CHAMBER
  2. 2. Housing Markets Policy Missteps Global Impacts Financial Markets Choked Economy Production Household Wealth Employment Consumption
  3. 3. Monthly Employment Change 400 S&P Case Shiller (1,000s) 200 National Home Values 0 -26.5 % -200 -400 Q1 2006 Peak to -600 Q4 2008 Trough -800 2007 2008 2009 65 Household Net Worth 60 ($ trillions) Stocks -$14 55 Housing -$5 50 Other +$1 45 06 07 08 Current Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Economy.com, S&P Case Shiller Index
  4. 4. Economy.com
  5. 5. Economy.com
  6. 6. Over the three months ending in December, the Texas Leading Index experienced its sharpest decline since its inception in January 1981. All eight of the indicators gave negative signals… Texas likely entered a recession sometime in the second half of 2008. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Regional Economic Update February 2009
  7. 7. 12-Month Employment Change 4% The national 3% economy 2% sets the 1% trend for the 0% state of -1% Texas and -2% DFW. DFW Texas US -3% 2007 2008 2009
  8. 8. Geography Data Item Latest Available Change National Real GDP ($US billions) $14,200 (4Q 2008) -6.3% annualized Conditions 4,795 # 12 mos. Employment (thousands) 133,019 (3/09) 3.5% % 12 mos. Unemployment Rate 8.5% (3/09) 5.1% 3/08 rate Industrial Production 97.4 (3/09) -12.7% % 12 mos. Retail Sales ($US millions) $344,380 (3/09) -9.4% % 12 mos. # 12 mos. -62.6 Employment (thousands) 10,529 (2/09) State of -neg% % 12 mos. Texas Unemployment Rate 6.5% (2/09) 4.5% 2/08 rate -31.5 # 12 mos. Employment (thousands) 2,934 (2/09) DFW Metro -1.1% % 12 mos. (Not Seasonally Unemployment Rates 6.9% (2/09) 4.4% 2/08 rate Adjusted) Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Economy.com, Texas Workforce Commission
  9. 9. 2009 2010 Year 2008 2009 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 U.S. -0.4 -3.7 -0.3 -5.9 -4.7 -2.7 -0.7 0.0 0.1 Texas 2.1 -1.7 0.6 -4.3 -4.0 -1.3 0.5 1.0 1.0 Annualized % Change Economy.com, 4/15/09
  10. 10. Housing Energy Exports Defense Population & Wealth: Creation v Losses
  11. 11. The outlook for most U.S. regions in 2009 is grim; employment will fall in all 50 states this year, and no area of the country will escape recession. Next year will look better, as much of the South and West see a return to moderate growth. Tech-producing areas will help lead the way. Centers of international trade and regional distribution and logistics should also stabilize as consumer demand and industrial production begin to rebound. Economy.com 4/15/09
  12. 12. GLOBAL DFW Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) is one of the spikes in the global economy, claiming the 12th largest metro economy in the world. DFW posts a gross metro product exceeding $300 billion, supported by a local workforce of three million and more than six million residents.
  13. 13. DFW FOOTPRINTS Logistics & Trade  Technology  Advanced Services 
  14. 14. UN 2007 POPULATION ESTIMATES Rank Metro Name Nation Population 1 Tokyo Japan 35,676,000 2 New York USA 19,040,000 3 Mumbai India 18,978,000 Benchmark Metros 4 Sao Paulo Brazil 18,845,000 5 Shanghai China 14,987,000 6 Los Angeles USA 12,500,000 7 Paris France 9,904,000 8 Seoul South Korea 9,796,000 9 Chicago USA 8,990,000 10 London United Kingdom 8,567,000 11 Hong Kong China-SD 7,206,000 12 Miami USA 5,585,000 13 Toronto Canada 5,213,000 14 DFW USA 4,798,000 15 Atlanta USA 4,506,000 16 Houston USA 4,459,000 17 Singapore Singapore 4,436,000 18 Melbourne Australia 3,728,000 19 Monterrey Mexico 3,712,000 20 Frankfurt Germany 2,517,600 21 Amsterdam Netherlands 1,031,000
  15. 15. DFW Business Climate Detail DFW RANKINGS Indicator Rank Office Costs ($/workstation) 2 Ease of Doing Business 2-tie Cost of Doing Business 3 Economic Stability 6-tie Business Taxes (TTR) 7-tie
  16. 16. Don’t panic. Do not bet against the U.S. economy. Never underestimate Texas.

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