5. Accounting Cost/profit estimates
Finance Cash flow and funding
Human Resources Hiring/recruiting/training
Marketing Pricing, promotion,
strategy
MIS IT/IS systems, services
Operations Schedules, MRP,
workloads
Product/service design New products and services
6.
7. Uh, give me a minute....
We sold 250 wheels last
week.... Now, next week
we should sell....
The forecast for any period equals the
previous period’s actual value.
It’s like driving a car by
looking in the rear-view
8. Peculiarities of forecasting are :
Forecasting is concerned with future events.
It shows the probability of happening of future
events.
It analysis past and present data.
It uses statistical tools and techniques.
9. ☺Analyzing and understanding the problem.
☺Developing sound foundation
☺Collecting and analyzing data.
☺Estimating future events.
☺Comparing results.
Follow up action.
10. Economic
Forecasting
Predicts what the
general business
Conditions will be
in the future (e.g.
Inflation rates,
Gross National
product,
Tax, level of
employment.)
Technology
Forecasting
Predicts the
Probability &
Possible future
development in
Technology (e.g.
Competitive
advantage of
firms competitors
incorporation
into their product
& processes
Demand
Forecasting
Predicts the
Quantity & timing
of demand for a
Firms product.
11. Forecasting methods and routes
Techniques Routes
Qualitative Quantitative
Simple
Regression
Multiple
Regression
Time
trends
Moving
Averages.
Mathematical
Formation
Statistical
Forecasting.
Nominal
Group
Technique.
Top-Down
Routes
Bottom
-Up
Routes
Where
International
and
National
Events
effect the
Future
Behavior
of local
variable
Where
Local
Events
Effect
The
Future
Behavior
Of local
variable
12. Importance of Forecasting
Provides relevant and reliable information
about the past and present events and the
likely future events. This is necessary for
sound planning.
It gives confidence to the managers for making
important decisions.
It is the basis for making planning premises.
It keeps managers active and alert to face
challenges of future events and the changes in
the environment.
13. Importance in different areas
Fore casting is important for:
Finance uses the long term forecasts to evaluate capital
investment needs.
Human Resources uses forecasts to evaluate personnel
needs.
IT designs and implements systems that generate
forecasts.
Marketing develops sales forecasts used for mid-term to
long term planning.
Operations develops and uses forecasts to make
decisions such as: scheduling, inventory management
and long term capacity planning.
14. The collection and analysis of data about the past, present and
future involves a lot of time and money. Therefore, managers have
to balance the cost of forecasting with its benefits. Many small firms
don’t do forecasting because of high cost.
Forecasting can only estimate the future events. It can guarantee
that these events will take place in the future. Long term forecasts
will be less accurate as compared to short term forecasts.
Forecasting is based on certain assumptions. If these assumptions
are wrong, the forecasting will be wrong. Forecasting is based on
past events. However, history may not repeat itself at all times.
Forecasting requires proper judgment and skills on the part of
managers. Forecasts may go wrong due to bad judgment and skills
on the part of some of the managers. Therefore, forecasts are
subject to human error.
15. Choosing a Forecasting TechniqueChoosing a Forecasting Technique
No single technique works in every situation
Two most important factors
Cost
Accuracy
Other factors include the availability of:
Historical data
Computers
Time needed to gather and analyze the data
Forecast horizon
16. Elements of a good forecastElements of a good forecast
1. Appropriate forecast horizon
2. Degree of accuracy should be taken into
account
3. Reliable
4. Choose meaningful units (dollars versus units)
5. Use same forecast throughout organization
18. Matter By :- Akanksha shrivastav
Created By:- JAi NaGaWat
Editor's Notes
Prévisions = Étape préalable à la planification Utilisées pour - Planifier le système d’opération (LT) - Planifier l’utilisation de ce même système (CT) Les clients n’attendront pas pour un bien de consommation ou pour un service. On doit anticiper les besoins des acheteurs potentiels. Ex: épicerie Produit sur tablette Suffisamment de caissière Infos de base pour: Finance: Budgets, achats RH: MO Marketing: Ventes Opérations: Production et stocks
