Demand Curve - New manufacturing sectors in eastern India

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India’s manufacturing sector has been coming off its high growth path since the first quarter of 2007. Large parts of India remain outside the impact of this downturn, as their economies are largely related to agricultural or tertiary sectors. In fact, 10 states with the highest manufacturing sector GDP account for 70% of the manufacturing output in the country. Maharashtra, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu are India’s top three industrialised states, and while the top eight positions have remained static since 2001, two new states, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh have moved up into the top 10, displacing Rajasthan and Punjab, respectively. The phenomenal growth in these two states, since their inception, has seen the share of manufacturing in their GDP rise dramatically as they have attracted industrial projects. Looking at the share of income that originates in the manufacturing sector, these two states have shown higher levels than Maharashtra, Haryana and Tamil Nadu. It is no accident that Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand have had high manufacturing growth. Being newer and smaller states, they responded more rapidly than their larger—and in some cases better endowed—neighbours. The result is for all to see. As Orissa, eastern Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal get their act together, large-scale manufacturing based on primary inputs will rapidly enhance incomes and lifestyles in eastern India.

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New manufacturing sectors in eastern India
The phenomenal growth in the Jharkhand and the Chhattisgarh has seen the share
of manufacturing in their GDP rise dramatically as they have attracted industrial
projects
Demand Curve
Source: District GDP of India
India’s manufacturing sector has been coming off its
high growth path since the first quarter of 2007. This graph shows the share of various states in
India’s manufacturing output and their income from
Large parts of India remain outside the impact of this
downturn, as their economies are largely related to the manufacturing activity in 2007-08

agricultural or tertiary sectors. In fact, 10 states with
the highest manufacturing sector GDP account for
70% of the manufacturing output in the country.
Maharashtra, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu are India’s top
three industrialised states, and while the top eight
positions have remained static since 2001, two new
states, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh have moved up
into the top 10, displacing Rajasthan and Punjab,
respectively.
The phenomenal growth in these two states, since
their inception, has seen the share of manufacturing
in their GDP rise dramatically as they have attracted
industrial projects. Looking at the share of income
that originates in the manufacturing sector, these two
states have shown higher levels than Maharashtra,
Haryana and Tamil Nadu.

The phenomenal growth in the Jharkhand and the Chhattisgarh has seen the share
of manufacturing in their GDP rise dramatically as they have attracted industrial
projects

It is no accident that Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand have had high manufacturing growth. Being
newer and smaller states, they responded more rapidly than their larger—and in some cases
better endowed—neighbours. The result is for all to see. As Orissa, eastern Madhya Pradesh,
Bihar and West Bengal get their act together, large-scale manufacturing based on primary
inputs will rapidly enhance incomes and lifestyles in eastern India.
Currently, there are few large urban markets in eastern India. After Kolkata, there is Patna, a
distant second, and then, Bhubaneswar, an even more distant third. Asansol, Dhanbad, Ranchi
and Raipur continue to be small markets.
But this is changing. The emerging trends can already be seen. For instance, many of the cities
in eastern India have not gone through the realty downturn that has characterized much of
urban India.
With the slowdown, which districts would be affected the most? Some are the standard
manufacturing heavyweights in the country—Surat, Bangalore, Pune, Ahmedabad, Mumbai,
Chennai, Coimbatore, etc. The manufacturing growth centres of the 1990s and 2000s were
predominantly in the west and south and had an international focus.
But the new growth centres are different. Two districts, that have become part of the top 10
manufacturing districts in recent years are Gurgaon, which has attracted large investments in
auto manufacturing, and Raipur in Chhattisgarh, which has two industrial growth centres at Urla
and Siltara.
Demand Curve is a weekly column by research firm Indicus Analytics Pvt. Ltd on consumer
trends and markets.

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Sustaining the development of the country will require current levels of growth to trickle down to the poorest and more excluded of society. A critical way to extend these benefits will be to bring people into the formal sector of finance, whereby they may have more reliable and cheaper access to their financial needs of remittances, savings, borrowings etc. Many models have been suggested as alternatives to traditional branch banking, the current penetration of which is abysmally low. Options include mobile banking, enlisting business correspondents, encouraging MFIs, etc., and each option has its strengths and weaknesses. The models with the greatest potential for the future should be able to leverage on existing retail networks and the rapidly expanding ICT (information and communication technology) platform. As such, the BC model, clubbed with m-banking technology, holds the greatest promise to achieving universal inclusion and steps must be taken to encourage its sustained proliferation

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Under the Indicus Urban Consumer Expenditure Spectrum, the bottom of the pyramid in urban India is comprised of households that earn less than Rs. 1.5 lakh per annum. This class forms the bulk of the population in cities, but contributes less than 15% of total urban income and less than 10% of total urban savings. Household sizes are typically smaller than in the more affluent classes. One reason is that there are many migrants in this segment; with little skills and low education, their earning opportunities are low, albeit they supplement family incomes in the villages. Northern states, however, have larger household sizes within the segment.

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The organized sector in India created 704,800 jobs between January 2011 and June 2011 and 369,200 more jobs are expected to be created by September 2011, according to the latest findings of Ma Foi Randstad Employment Trends Survey – Wave2. The survey was conducted among 690 companies across 13 industry segments panning 8 Indian cities. The respondents included members of senior management and HR professionals who were questioned on specific areas relating to hiring plans across various timelines, manpower requirements for the current quarter vis-à-vis the last two quarters, and their views on how they see the job market to be in the year 2011. While the Indian economy is passing through a delicate phase with certain sectors looking at a bleak market in the near future, there are others who have performed well and continue to perform as per predictions made in the beginning of the year, thus reflecting buoyancy among employers. According to the survey, the Healthcare sector has remained the largest employment generator with 1, 15,000 jobs created in H1, followed by the Hospitality sector with 94,000 jobs created during the same period. The IT/ITeS sector, which witnessed a turnaround in 2010-11 by posting a double digit growth, continues to grow at the same pace and has added 91,000 jobs in H1. In the cities, New Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai continue to lead the job market job generating 1,39,700 jobs between January and June 2011, as predicted earlier this year

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According to the five income-segment classification of the Indicus urban consumer expenditure spectrum, in the second rung of affluence, or the upper middle class, among urban Indian households are those who earn between Rs. 5 lakh and Rs. 10 lakh annually. The population in these households comprise a little less than 10% of all urban households, but contribute around one-fifth of the total urban savings. It is the upper-income segments that form the big savers of the country, with high-disposable incomes, making them attractive markets for financial products. They are also the spenders in the high value category, contributing to about 17% of urban consumer expenditure in India. While this share is approximately the same as the lowest two income segments, being a relatively smaller segment, expenditure per household would be relatively higher. Moreover, the type of goods and services consumed would, of course, be quite different across the income segments.

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Demand Curve - New manufacturing sectors in eastern India

1. New manufacturing sectors in eastern India The phenomenal growth in the Jharkhand and the Chhattisgarh has seen the share of manufacturing in their GDP rise dramatically as they have attracted industrial projects Demand Curve Source: District GDP of India India’s manufacturing sector has been coming off its high growth path since the first quarter of 2007. This graph shows the share of various states in India’s manufacturing output and their income from Large parts of India remain outside the impact of this downturn, as their economies are largely related to the manufacturing activity in 2007-08 agricultural or tertiary sectors. In fact, 10 states with the highest manufacturing sector GDP account for 70% of the manufacturing output in the country. Maharashtra, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu are India’s top three industrialised states, and while the top eight positions have remained static since 2001, two new states, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh have moved up into the top 10, displacing Rajasthan and Punjab, respectively. The phenomenal growth in these two states, since their inception, has seen the share of manufacturing in their GDP rise dramatically as they have attracted industrial projects. Looking at the share of income that originates in the manufacturing sector, these two states have shown higher levels than Maharashtra, Haryana and Tamil Nadu.

2. The phenomenal growth in the Jharkhand and the Chhattisgarh has seen the share of manufacturing in their GDP rise dramatically as they have attracted industrial projects It is no accident that Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand have had high manufacturing growth. Being newer and smaller states, they responded more rapidly than their larger—and in some cases better endowed—neighbours. The result is for all to see. As Orissa, eastern Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal get their act together, large-scale manufacturing based on primary inputs will rapidly enhance incomes and lifestyles in eastern India. Currently, there are few large urban markets in eastern India. After Kolkata, there is Patna, a distant second, and then, Bhubaneswar, an even more distant third. Asansol, Dhanbad, Ranchi and Raipur continue to be small markets. But this is changing. The emerging trends can already be seen. For instance, many of the cities in eastern India have not gone through the realty downturn that has characterized much of urban India. With the slowdown, which districts would be affected the most? Some are the standard manufacturing heavyweights in the country—Surat, Bangalore, Pune, Ahmedabad, Mumbai, Chennai, Coimbatore, etc. The manufacturing growth centres of the 1990s and 2000s were predominantly in the west and south and had an international focus. But the new growth centres are different. Two districts, that have become part of the top 10 manufacturing districts in recent years are Gurgaon, which has attracted large investments in auto manufacturing, and Raipur in Chhattisgarh, which has two industrial growth centres at Urla and Siltara. Demand Curve is a weekly column by research firm Indicus Analytics Pvt. Ltd on consumer trends and markets.

Demand Curve - New manufacturing sectors in eastern India

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