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Oil Wars 
Iakovos Alhadeff
Copyright 2014 by 
Iakovos Alhadeff 
Published by Iakovos Alhadeff at Smashwords
TABLE OF CONTENTS 
Introduction 
China Russia Iran vs the U.S.A. 
The Shanghai Cooperation 
Agreement as a Challenge to NATO 
The U.S.A. Russia Energy 
War as a Simple Addition 
The U.S.A. Russia Energy 
War in 3 Paragraphs 
The 3 Wars for the 
Baku-Ceyhan Pipeline 
The True Causes of the 
Conflict Between Turkey and Israel 
The Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline 
and the Creation of PKK 
The War in Kosovo and 
the Baku-Ceyhan Pipeline 
Why Saudi Arabia Blamed 
Hamas and Qatar Blamed Israel 
in the July 2014 Gaza War 
The New Cold War Between U.S.A. and Russia 
The Ceyhan-Haifa Pipeline and the Israel-Lebanon War of 2006
Introduction 
What follows are some very short essays I wrote about oil and natural gas wars. Each chapter is 
an independent. They are independent in the sense that they were not written to form the parts of 
a booklet, since all oil and natural gas wars are interrelated.
China Russia Iran vs the U.S.A. 
China’s agreements with Kazakhstan and Russia, for the construction of pipelines that will 
supply China with oil and natural gas from these two countries were of great geopolitical 
importance, for both China and Russia as individual countries, but also as a coalition against the 
U.S.A. It is not a secret that the Russian oligarchs, most of them ex KGB agents, have formed an 
alliance with the Chinese communists against the Americans. 
The Russians to begin with, sell most of their natural gas to the European markets. If the 
Europeans were to boycott them, they would face severe financial difficulties. With the new 
contract with the Chinese, the Russians will sell 400 billion dollars of natural gas to the Chinese 
for the next 30 years and will have a second major buyer. 
The Chinese on the other hand, in contrast to the oil and natural gas rich Russians, have to import 
most of their oil and natural gas. Energy dependence on the Persian Gulf is a great handicap for 
the Chinese, since the Gulf is dominated militarily by the Americans (area in the red circle).
Moreover, the ships carrying energy from the Gulf to China have to pass though the straits 
between Malaysia and Indonesia (area with blue circle). However Malaysia has a close military 
cooperation with the U.S.A. Basically the Americans can very easily cut off the Chinese energy 
supplies in case of a military confrontation. 
With energy flowing from Kazakhstan and Russia, the Chinese ensure that they will not run out 
of fuels in case of a confrontation. For an article on the tensions between the U.S.A. and China 
for the Persian Gulf oil see the following Wall Street Journal article. 
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887324755104579073283948517714 
Moreover China has built with Turkmenistan a natural gas pipeline, following the route 
Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan-China (orange line), see Wikipedia. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Asia%E2%80%93China_gas_pipeline 
China also wants to get hold of Iranian energy. This can be done through an extension of the 
Iran-Pakistan pipeline (pink line), see Forbes. 
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Iran-Pakistan-Natural-Gas-Pipeline-to-Extend-to- 
China.html 
This could also be done through an extension of the Turkmenistan line to Iran (green line). That 
would strengthen both China and Iran. It would greatly increase China’s energy options and 
security and it would protect Iran against sanctions from the West. We therefore see that there is 
a very strong coalition of inferior civilizations against the Americans, consisting mainly of 
Chinese Communists, Iranian Mullahs and Russian ex KGB agents and current oligarchs. 
We could say that the Americans lost completely the energy battle of the Caspian Sea, since they 
only control Azerbaijan, which is a NATO friendly country, and they only managed to transfer 
some Caspian oil to the Mediterranean through the Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey route (the Baku- 
Ceyhan pipeline).. 
For the Americans and the Europeans it is very important that Europe is not heavily dependent 
on Russia in terms of its energy supplies. Therefore the Americans were hoping, and still hope, to
transfer natural gas either from the Persian Gulf or from the Caspian Sea through Turkey to 
Europe. That would reduce European (NATO) dependency on Gazprom. 
We should therefore not assume that the Americans have the power to fight energy rich 
aborigines for ever. If we take the American military power as given, we might wake up one day 
to see the Chinese Communists being the number one military power in the world. And this is 
very scary. 
For the Russian Chinese deal see Forbes. 
http://www.forbes.com/sites/chriswright/2014/05/22/400-billion-gas-deal-shows-russia-looking-to- 
china-to-replace-western-money/ 
For the China Kazakhstan deal see Wikipedia. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kazakhstan%E2%80%93China_oil_pipeline 
For the Turkmenistan China deal see Wikipedia. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Asia%E2%80%93China_gas_pipeline
The Shanghai Cooperation 
Agreement as a Challenge to NATO 
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is a political, economic and military cooperation. It 
currently has 6 full member states, namely Russia, China, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzdtan 
and Tajikistan. Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India are observing states, and Turkmenistan is a 
guest state. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation 
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization aims to become what the Warsaw Pact used to be i.e. a 
challenge to NATO. I would like to say a few words about the member states’ regimes. China’s 
political regime is a communist dictatorship. Kazakhstan is ruled by Nursultan Nazarbayev, 
which has been the only president since Kazakhstan’s independence, and he is the former general 
secretary of Kazakhstan’s Communist Pary. In the 2004 elections, his party gained 90% of the 
parliament’s seats, and the Agrarian party, which was led by his daughter gained the remaining 
seats, except one seat that was gained by the remaining parties. 
Uzbekistan is ruled by Islam Karimov, who has been the only president since the country’s 
independence in 1991. Islam Karimov is a former member of the Soviet Communist Party.
Tajikistan is ruled by Emomalli Rahmon, who is again the only president since the country’s 
independence in 1994. 
Iran is an Islamic country, where the Supreme Leader is the ultimate authority, and he is more 
powerful than the elected Iranian president. The Supreme Leader is appointed by the Assembly 
of Experts, which is a council of Islamic theologians. Turkmenistan, since its independence in 
1991, is ruled by the president for life Saparmurat Niyazov. 
Russia is the only country which has some elements of democracy, however also ruled by ex 
KGB agents like Putin, and ex members of the Communist Party, which are today’s oligarchs. 
Russian people never experienced freedom and democracy, since they were ruled by Tsars, and 
then from 1917 to the early 90’s they were under a regime of communist dictatorship. Today’s 
regime with the rule of the ex KGB and ex Communist oligarchs, is Russia’s highest democratic 
achievement. 
If Iran and Turkmenistan become full members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the 
Organization will control over 60% of the world’s natural gas reserves, and a very large part of 
the world’s oil reserves. Moreover if Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and Mongolia that are 
currently observing members become full members, the Organization will have fully encircled 
the Persian Gulf and the American military bases in Qatar, as you can see on the map. The 
Persian Gulf holds most of the oil and natural gas reserves that are outside the Organization’s 
control today. 
And what do we hear from both Communists and Nazis? We hear that NATO is a fascist 
organization, and we can only hope on the strengthening of organizations like the Shanghai 
Cooperation Agreement, because no matter where Communists and Nazis live, they always have 
a third world mentality. 
As you can see at the following link at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit of 
September 2014, the Organization will invite India, Pakistan, Mongolia and Iran to become full 
members and not simply observing members as they currently are. 
http://indian.ruvr.ru/2014_08_01/SCO--admit-new-members/
If they do become full members of the SCO, the only two members that are missing for the black 
diagram of the map to close, and encircle the American military forces in the Persian Gulf, will 
be Turkmenistan and Afghanistan. 
Moreover, as you can see at the following link, Turkey is examining the possibility of becoming 
a full member of the SCO. If Turkey becomes an SCO member, the transfer of oil and natural gas 
from the Caspian Sea and the Persian Gulf to Europe, will not be controlled by NATO anymore, 
but from the SCO instead. 
http://thediplomat.com/2013/12/turkey-renews-plea-to-join-shanghai-cooperation-organization/
The U.S.A. Russia Energy 
War as a Simple Addition 
I keep saying that the Americans and the Europeans are desperately looking for an alternative to 
Gazprom natural gas network, in order to diminish Russian influence over European countries, 
since Gazprom provides almost 30% of Europe’s natural gas imports. 
Russia’s main energy hub is Ukraine, and the West is hoping to use Turkey as its hub, in order to 
transfer natural gas from the Persian Gulf or the Caspian Sea to Europe. It is a well known fact, 
that the energy resources of the NATO friendly Azerbaijan are not sufficient to cover European 
demand. The Americans will have to connect to the Azerbaijani network, natural gas from the 
other countries of the region. 
The countries at the other side of the Caspian i.e. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, are tied 
with long contracts and pipelines to China and Russia. China imports their gas in order to 
consume it, and Russia in order to prevent it from falling to Western hands and resell it through 
Gazprom. 
You can see at the following Wikipedia link, and at the picture above, the richest countries in the 
world in terms of natural gas reserves. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_natural_gas_proven_reserves
You can see that even if the Americans manage to bring Qatari natural gas to the Azerbaijani 
network, if Iran is controlled by the Russians and the Chinese, most of the world natural gas 
resources will be controlled by the Russians and the Chinese. The West will only control the 
Qatari natural gas i.e. 25 billion cubic meters, and the Russians with the Chinese will be 
controlling the natural gas of Russia, Iran and Turkmenistan i.e. 48.7+33.6+17.5= 100 billion 
cubic meters. The West will only control ¼ of the East’s natural gas. 
This would be a major power shift in the geopolitical field, and the U.S.A. would have to be 
crazy to allow it to happen, when they are spending annually 600 billion in military spending, 
while Russia and China together spend less than 200 billion. You can see the figures at the 
following Wikipedia link. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures 
If the West controls Iran, the West will control Qatar + Iran = 58 billion cubic meters, and the 
East will control Russia + Turkmenistan = 65 billion cubic meters. I therefore believe that the 
Iran will either have to cooperate with the West, or it will have to fall.
The U.S.A. Russia Energy 
War in 3 Paragraphs 
There are only 4 big players in the natural gas market, the ones you can see in the black circles, 
namely Russia, Iran, Qatar, and Turkmenistan. There are only two energy hubs through which 
they can transport their natural gas to Europe, the ones in the red circles, namely Turkey and 
Ukraine. 
Russia’s problem is that the West, U.S.A. and E.U., has blocked its energy hub, namely Ukraine. 
The West’s problem is that even though Turkey, their energy hub, is free, they do not have 
enough gas to send to Europe to diminish the Russian influence, since Turkmenistan is controlled 
by Russia and China, Iran is a hostile to the West country, and Syria’s dictator Assad will not 
allow Qatar to build a pipeline to Turkey through Syria, since he is a close ally of Russia. 
The Russians partially got over their problem, by building the North Stream pipeline, which is a 
natural gas pipeline from Russia to Northern Europe that bypasses Ukraine through the Baltic 
Sea. They are currently trying to construct the South Stream pipeline, which will connect Russia 
to Southern Europe through the Caspian Sea, bypassing Ukraine too. For the moment the U.S.A. 
and the E.U. are successful in blocking this pipeline.
The 3 Wars for the 
Baku-Ceyhan Pipeline 
At section ‘History’, of the second paragraph of the following Wikipedia link, you can read that 
the Baku-Ceyhan Pipeline, which was the only exit that the Americans managed to find through 
the NATO-friendly Azerbaijan for the Caspian Sea oil, in a region controlled by the Russians, 
was proposed to Georgia and Azerbaijan by the Turkish President Demirel in 1992. The pipeline 
would follow the route Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey (Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan). 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku%E2%80%93Tbilisi%E2%80%93Ceyhan_pipeline#History 
The Russian revenge towards Georgia, was to provide plenty of support to the separatists in the 
region of Abkhazia, and thus a war started between Georgia and the inhabitants of Abkhazia in 
1992. See the first lines of the following wikipedia link. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Abkhazia_(1992%E2%80%9393)
The Russian revenge towards Azerbaijan, was to provide plenty of support to the Armenian 
separatists of the region of Karabach in Azerbaijan. As you can read at the third paragraph of the 
following wikipedia link, Azerbaijan declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, and 
the Armenians of the Karaback asked for their independence as they had done in the past, and the 
Nagorno-Karabach War started in 1991 (there had been fights in the past too). 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azerbaijan 
The Americans revenge was to support the Chechen separatists, and the first Russia Chechen war 
started in 1994. See first lines of the following wikipedia link. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Chechen_War 
You can therefore see how the big powers feed existing conflicts according to their own interests. 
In all the above cases the conflicts were already there, they were not created by the Russians and 
the Americans. The Russians and the Americans just used them for their own purposes.
The True Causes of the 
Conflict Between Turkey and Israel 
I always found the conflict between Turkey and Israel strange, since the two countries had a long 
tradition of smooth commercial and military cooperation. And yet it seems now that Israel is 
perceived by Recep Erdogan, the Turkish Prime Minister, as his country’s major enemy. 
What happened? It was only in 2005, as you can see in paragraph “After AKP Ascendancy” of 
the following Wikipedia link, that Recep Erdogan, during his visit in Israel, informed the 
nationalist Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, that the Iranian nuclear program was not only a 
threat for Israel, but instead a threat for the whole world. Is it possible for someone to say 
something that will please the Israelis more than that? 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Turkey_relations#After_AKP_ascendancy 
Moreover, as you can read in the same paragraph, during his staying in Israel, Recep Erdogan, 
paid a visit to the Holocaust Museum, and said that for his party, anti-Semitism was a crime 
against humanity, and also that the Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs said that the relations 
between Israel and Turkey were perfect. So what changed so dramatically, and today Turkey is 
with Iran and Qatar the major supporters of the terrorist organization Hamas, which is the 
organization that launches rockets from Gaza to Israel? As always the explanation is oil and 
natural gas. 
The first reason is the vast resources of natural gas that exist in the sea area between Cyprus and 
Israel, which you can see at the following Wikipedia map with green and orange. The vast area 
above the green country (Cyprus) is Turkey.
Greece, Cyprus and Turkey, have long disputes about their Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ), 
since the latter determines who has what claims on the areas energy riches. And Turkey does not 
recognize the EEZ of Greece and Cyprus, since doing that would allow the two countries to 
exploit the region’s natural gas. Israel however, did recognize the Greek and Cypriot EEZ, as you 
can see at the following Wikipedia link. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exclusive_economic_zone#Greece 
Recognizing the Greek EEZ was a major blow in the Turkish-Israeli relations. Moreover, since 
Turkey was threatening Greece and Cyprus that it would retaliate in case they unilaterally 
declared their EEZ without Turkey’s approval, Greece, Cyprus and Israel formed a militarily 
coalition against Turkey. At the following Wikipedia link, at section Military Cooperation, you 
can read about the Greek-Israeli military cooperation. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greece%E2%80%93Israel_relations#Military_collaboration 
In 2008 the first Greek-Israeli military exercise took place, under the code name Glorious 
Spartan. The second military exercise between the two countries, with code name Minoas 2010, 
was scheduled for the 26th of May 2010, and was supposed to last until the 3rd of June. The 
exercise started on the 26th as scheduled. However on the 31st of May 2010, in order to take 
revenge from Israel, Erdogan launched the Gaza Freedom Flotilla, a flotilla of 6 ships, with the 
ship Mavi Marmara on the lead. Supposedly the aim of the flotilla was to break the embargo 
imposed by the Israelis on Gaza’s port. 
However Erdogan was fully aware that there was no chance that the Israelis would allow that. If 
the Israelis were to do so, Hamas would not have to struggle in order to smuggle Iranian and 
Qatari rockets and weapons from Egypt to Gaza. They could simply use harbor cranes to unload 
them from big ships. Therefore there was not even the slightest chance of success, and Erdogan 
knew that very well. What Erdogan was hoping for, was that the Israelis would respond with 
violence to the attacks of the terrorists against its soldiers, when the latter would attempt to seize 
the ships, and use this blood to isolate Israel diplomatically. And that’s exactly what happened. 
Following the Mavi Marmara incident, the Greek government had to withdraw its military forces 
from the common exercise with the Israelis, ending the exercise on the 31st of May instead of the
3rd of June as scheduled. However this incident only temporarily terminated the Greek Israeli 
military cooperation. I must mention that Greek journalists were very pro Erdogan and anti Israel 
during the Mavi Marmara crisis, since most of them work for Greek businessmen who have very 
close ties with the Arabs, and therefore their interests are not always in tandem with national 
strategy. 
I mean that at a time when the Greek Army was conducting a military exercise with the Israelis, 
and the Israelis had recognized the Greek Exclusive Economic Zone, and while Greece had 
joined a common defense doctrine with Israel against Turkey, Erdogan was attacking Israel to 
retaliate, and the Greek reporters were supporting Erdogan. You can read about what I say in the 
following link of the Research Institute of European and American Studies. 
http://www.rieas.gr/research-areas/greek-israel-studies/2077-greek-israeli-cyprus-military-and-security- 
relations-a-preview-.html 
The second cause of the Turkish Israeli conflict is the natural gas and oil of the Persian Gulf. As I 
was explaining in great detail in my essay “The Energy War Between U.S.A. and Russia”, there 
is a great fight in the Middle East between the Shiites regimes of Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, 
and the Sunni regimes of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, U.A.E. and Turkey. The cause of the conflict is 
that both the Shiites and the Sunnis want to send Persian Gulf energy to Europe and East Asia 
with their own pipeline networks. 
Before the ISIS or ISIL attacks (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria or Islamic State of Iraq and 
Levant or simply Islamic State), Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Lebanon were controlled by Shiites(or 
Shia). These regimes wanted to send energy to Europe, following the route Iran-Iraq-Syria- 
Lebanon-Europe. You can read about the Iran-Iraq-Syria or the Shiite pipeline at the following 
Wikipedia link. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran-Iraq-Syria_pipeline 
You can see at the following Wikipedia map the route they would follow.
Please not that Syria is controlled by Assad, who is an Alawite. Alawites are a branch of Shiite 
Islam, as you can read in the first few sentences of the following Wikipedia link. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alawites 
On the other hand, Sunni regimes i.e. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., Kuwait, and Turkey, want to 
build their own pipeline network, in order to send their energy to Europe, following the route 
Qatar-Saudi Arabia-Iraq-Syria-Turkey-Europe. You can read for the Qatar-Turkey pipeline at the 
following Wikipedia link. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar-Turkey_pipeline 
As you can see at the map, if Iraq and Syria are controlled by the Shiites, the Sunni pipeline is 
blocked. That’s the cause of the war in the region. Therefore Turkey’s interests are closely linked 
to Qatar’s interests, since the Qatar-Turkey pipeline will increase dramatically Turkey’s 
geopolitical significance as an international energy hub, and it will generate lot’s of revenues in 
hard currencies. But Qatar is one of Israel’s lethal enemies, and the major supporter of the 
terrorist organization Hamas, which launches rockets to Israel. 
Therefore the Sunni pipelines in the Middle East bring Turkey and Qatar much closer, and the 
energy triangle between Greece-Cyprus and Israel, move Israel and Turkey further apart. As it is
most of the time the case, energy is the reason that Israel and Turkey, once a strong alliance, are 
now standing so far away. 
You can read more about the Pipeline war between the Sunnis and the Shiites at the following 
link. “The Energy War Between U.S.A. and Russia”. 
http://iakal.wordpress.com/2014/08/05/the-energy-war-between-u-s-a-and-russia-and-the-threat-for- 
israels-survival/
The Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline 
and the Creation of PKK 
The oil pipeline of Kirkuk-Ceyhan (or Kirkuk-Yumurtalik) connects the oil rich Northern Iraq 
with the Turkish port of Ceyhan (white line). 
As you can read on page 90 of the following link of the International Transport Forum, an 
international think tank with 54 member countries, the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline was constructed 
in 1977 and its capacity was further increased in 1984. 
http://internationaltransportforum.org/Pub/pdf/09Turkey.pdf 
As you can read in the first paragraph of the following Wikipedia link, Abdullah Ocalan 
established the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) in 1978, and he launched his first attack against 
Turkey in 1984. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurdistan_Workers'_Party
You can see that the dates of the pipeline and the PKK are almost the same. When the pipeline 
was constructed the PKK was established, and when the capacity of the pipeline was increased 
the PKK launched its first attack. Is this a coincidence? 
Iran and Iraq are the 4th and 5th richest countries in the world in terms of proven oil reserves. At 
that time the Iranian-Iraqi relations were very hostile, and they finally went into a very long war, 
the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-1988. The main conflict was the Shatt al Arab (Arvand Rud) river, 
which is formed by the Tiger and Euphrates confluence (red circle in the Iran-Iraq borders), and 
which ends in the Persian Gulf. 
This river was, and still is, very important for transfer oil from the rich fields of the region to the 
Persian Gulf, in order to export it, since the Persian Gulf is the largest oil exporting region in the 
world. You can read about the river conflict in section ‘Territorial Disputes’ of the following 
Wikipedia link. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shatt_al-Arab#Territorial_disputes 
According to the above link, the river of Shatt al Arab was always a source of conflict between 
the Ottoman Empire and Persia, and they actually had to sign an agreement in 1639 about it. 
Keep in mind that Tiger and Euphrates are a constant source of conflict between Turkey and 
Syria too. 
Therefore the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline which was of great help to Iraq as a source of extra 
revenue was a great problem for its foe. It is a common policy in the Middle East to fund various 
groups, either religious or sectarians or else, in order to attack their competitors’ pipeline 
infrastructure. 
As you can see on the map, Kirkuk is located in Northern Iraq, in the Iraqi Kurdistan. Kurdistan 
is the region in the red diagram, and it also has a Syrian, an Iraqi, an Iranian and a Turkish part. 
There is no evidence to support that it was Iran that financed the Kurds, but it would be 
something very reasonable to assume. At the following Wikipedia link you can see that the 
equivalent to PKK Kurdish organization in Iran, the PJAK, launched its first attack in Iran in 
2004. The PKK launched its first attack in 1984 and the PJAK in 2004.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PJAK#Armed_conflict_and_arrests
The War in Kosovo and 
the Baku-Ceyhan Pipeline 
The war in Yugoslavia (Serbia) was another energy war. The population of Kosovo, in the 
southern part of Serbia, is 90% Muslims of Albanian origin as you can see at the following 
Wikipedia link. These people wanted to be independent from Serbia after the end of the 
communist period 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosovo_Albanians 
These separatists were embraced by the Americans and the Europeans. Before the creation of the 
Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (brown region) and the creation of Kosovo (green 
region), were both former parts of Yugoslavia. Yugoslavia together with Greece, both close
Russian allies, could block oil or natural gas pipelines that could transfer Caspian oil or natural 
gas from the Black Sea to the Adriatic Sea, since these American and European pipelines would 
antagonize the Russian oil and natural gas industry. 
As you can see at the following link, the AMBP pipeline, is an oil pipeline transferring Caspian 
oil to the Adriatic Sea, following the route Ajerbaijan-Turkey-Bulgaria-FYROM-Albania- 
Adriatic Sea-Europe (black line on the map), which has been already agreed, but which has not 
been developed yet, as you can read at the following Wikipedia link. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMBO_pipeline 
Hence, the Kosovars of Albanian origin started protesting requiring their independence, the Serbs 
used violence against them, and on February of 1998, a NATO operation under the code name 
Operation Allied Force attacked Serbia. The attacks were carried out by 13 countries, namely 
U.S.A., Canada, Great Britain, France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Italy, 
Norway, Denmark and Turkey. 
These countries attacked Serbia and forced Serbia to accept an autonomous Kosovo. A large 
NATO base was established in Kosovo, namely the Kosovo Force, which would see that 
Albanian Kosovars were not threatened by the Serbs, and that any future pipelines crossing the 
region would be secure too. You can read about Kosovo Force in the following Wikipedia link. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosovo_Force 
The following link is a good chronological summary of the NATO attack in Serbia. 
http://www.jfcnaples.nato.int/page7196179.aspx
Why Saudi Arabia Blamed 
Hamas and Qatar Blamed Israel 
in the July 2014 Gaza War 
It is a well know fact that Saudi Arabia is extremely rich in oil, Qatar is extremely rich in natural 
gas, and Turkey is not very rich in none of them. Israel has some natural gas riches, nothing in 
comparison to Qatar, but very poor in oil. It is a well known fact, that Saudi Arabia, Qatar and 
Turkey, all supported the rebels against Assad. However everybody agrees that they funded 
different rebel groups, since the Saudis are against the Muslim Brotherhood unlike the other two. 
Even though they all three were united against Assad, in the Gaza crisis of July 2014, Saudi 
Arabia blamed Hamas for the crisis, while Turkey and Qatar supported Hamas and blamed Israel. 
Why unlike the case with Assad they were divided? 
The reason is that Assad agreed with Iran, which is rich in both oil and natural gas, to an Iran- 
Iraq-Syria pipeline(red line), that would bring Iranian oil and natural gas to the Mediterranean 
Sea, thus hurting both oil rich Saudis, natural gas rich Qataris, and bypassing the poor in both 
Turkey, which wishes however to be the only energy hub in Southern Europe.
Therefore all three were united. In the case of Israel however, the Saudis did not want to support 
Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood’ s offspring, since they are afraid that they are dangerous for 
their regime too. Since Israel does not have oil to export and hurt the Saudi sales, they supported 
Israel, because they thought it would be convenient for them to form a short term alliance with 
Israel, in order for Israel to finish the Muslim Brotherhood’s offspring i.e. Hamas. However the 
natural gas rich Qatar, and the bypassed as an energy hub by Israel’s exports’ (blue line) Turkey, 
did not afford to support Israel. Actually it is these two, with some support from Iran that 
required Hamas to fire the rockets. 
The Qataris are hoping to sell their natural gas to Europe through Turkey (black line).
The New Cold War Between U.S.A. and Russia 
The conflict in Ukraine is only a part of the energy war between Russia and United States. 
Europe is very poor in terms of energy resources, but very rich in all other aspects. Both U.S.A. 
and Russia want to dominate the European energy market, since this does not only involve 
economic gains, but aslo increased diplomatic power. Energy is very important for all developed 
economies, and energy providers normally have political power over energy recipients. 
Russia is the richest country in natural gas reserves and the number one oil producer. It is not 
however the richest country in oil reserves. Please note that the richest countries in energy 
reserves are not necessarily the largest energy producers too. At the following Wikipedia link you 
can see Gazprom’s European market shares. Gazprom is the Russian state owned natural gas 
giant, and on average it holds 30% of the European natural gas market. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_in_the_European_energy_sector 
Moreover Russia supplies a large part of the oil consumed by European countries. This energy 
dominance is a big pain for United States, since it gives Russia political power over NATO 
members. Therefore the Americans wish to provide Europe with alternative sources of energy, 
and more specifically with alternative sources of natural gas, since natural gas is most of the time 
delivered through pipelines, and it creates a greater dependency on the part of the energy 
recipient than oil, which is normally transferred with ships. 
Most of Gazprom’s natural gas, approximately 80% of it, is distributed to Europe through 
Ukraine. At the following link you can read about the disputes between Russia and Ukraine over 
natural gas distribution. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_disputes 
That’s the reason the Americans are so keen to help anti-Russian and NATO friendly Ukrainians. 
The Russians on the other hand do not like this dependency on Ukraine, and have developed the 
Nord Stream pipeline which delivers Gazprom’s natural gas directly to Germany, through the 
Baltic Sea, thus bypassing Ukraine. You can see at the following BBC map the Nord Stream 
pipeline with Green color.
Map 1 
Source BBC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14803065) 
Russia wants to also develop another pipeline, the South Stream, which you can see with the blue 
color on the map, which will again bypass Ukraine and will deliver Gazprom’s natural gas to 
Southern Europe. When both these pipelines will be ready, the Russians will not depend anymore 
on Ukraine to supply the whole Europe with Russian natural gas. As you can see the South 
Stream will cross the Black Sea, and from Bulgaria will distribute natural gas to Southern 
Europe. 
To develop the South Stream pipeline, Russia needs the help of Bulgaria, and also the help of 
Turkey, since the Exclusive Economic Zones of both Bulgaria and Turkey are involved. One but 
not the only reason there was so much noise about Crimea was because of Crimea’s effect on the 
Ukraine and Russian Exclusive Economic Zones. Crimea is the piece of land under Ukraine on 
map 2
Map 2 
As you can see, if Ukraine controls Crimea, Ukraine would have a saying on the South Stream 
crossing the Black Sea, since it would fall inside Ukraine’s exclusive economic zone. But if 
Crimea belongs to Russia, Ukraine does not have a saying on the construction of the pipeline. 
And Russia annexed Crimea as we all know. And as you can see on map 3, from 
whowhatwhy.com, which is accurate, the Russians designed the pipeline nearer Turkey to totally 
avoid Ukraine. 
Map 3
The Europeans are divided on the issue of the South Stream. As you can see at the following 
Reuters’ link, 
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/17/us-ukraine-crisis-gas-southstream-analys-idUSBREA3G1KP20140417 
some countries perceive it as a positive development i.e. Germany, Italy, Bulgaria. The important 
point to note is that once the South Stream is ready, together with the Nord Stream, will allow 
Gazprom to supply with natural gas the whole European Continent without relying on the 
Ukrainian pipeline network. Moreover, as you can see on the following Wikipedia link, Ukraine 
is the 26th richest country in the world in terms of natural gas reserves, which further enhances 
its geostrategic importance. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_in_Ukraine 
As I already said, the Americans and the Europeans want to have many sources of natural gas, in 
order to limit the economic but mainly the diplomatic influence that Russia enjoys over NATO 
members, and which arises by the 30% of Gazprom’s share in the European market. It also has to 
do with competition issues. The more energy options a country has the cheaper it buys its energy. 
The Americans and the Europeans want to bring natural gas from the energy rich Caspian Sea to 
Europe. The Nabucco Pipeline and the Pans Adriatic Pipeline are two of the possible routes. The 
Nabucco pipeline which you can see with red color on map 1 will bring Caspian natural gas to 
Europe through Turkey. The other possible pipeline, the Trans Adriatic Pipeline TAP, which you 
can see on map 4 below, will again bring natural gas from Caspian Sea to Europe through 
Turkey.
Map 4 
It is clear how important Turkey is for the Americans and Europeans, since both the Nabucco and 
the TAP pipelines will have to pass through its territories to deliver Caspian natural gas to 
European markets. And I am not talking for the obvious economic benefits. I am talking about 
Turkey’s increased geopolitical power. It is very important for the Americans and Europeans to 
have Turkey on their side, so if they decide to take sanctions against Russia and there is a 
disturbance in natural gas supply, Turkey will not cut off supplies from the Caspian Sea too to 
support Russia. Currently it is very painful for the Americans and the Europeans to take 
sanctions against Russia, since Gazprom provides a large share of the natural gas consumed in 
the European markets 
Iran’s is also very important for the Americans and the Europeans. Iran is situated on the Caspian 
Sea and it will be very difficult for the Americans to ensure stable natural gas supply to Europe if 
they face a hostile Iran. Moreover Iran is a very energy rich country, one of the richest ones in 
fact, and its natural gas could be transferred to Europe too. The Nabucco and TAP pipelines are 
supposed to transfer natural gas from NATO friendly Azerbaijan, but other countries can be 
connected on the pipeline network too. Therefore both Iran and Turkey are extremely important 
for the American and European efforts to provide Europe with abundant non Russian natural gas. 
The increase in Turkey’s and Iran’s geopolitical power poses a lethal threat to Israel. You have to 
keep in mind that Turkey and Iran are two of Israel’s lethal enemies. Iran’s goal is to eliminate
Israel, and Turkey, an ex Israel ally, does not seem to be further away from this view, under the 
leadership of Recep Erdogan. Actually everybody knows that it is mainly Iran, Turkey and Qatar 
that support and provide funding to Hamas, which is recognized by U.S.A., the E.E., Japan and 
other countries as a terrorist organization. Hamas runs the Gaza Strip, and came to power with 
elections in Gaza. It is Hamas that fires all these rockets that you hear about from Gaza to Israel. 
At the following article you can read about the funding of Hamas. 
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/para/hamas-funds.htm 
In this changing geopolitical map, Israel does not seem to be able to count on United States for 
its survival, as it has for so many years done. This has already caused a deterioration in the 
American-Israeli relations, and an improvement in the Russian-Israeli relations. You have to 
keep in mind that rich natural gas fields were also found in the Mediterranean See, in the region 
between Greece, Cyprus,Turkey and Israel. This could be also an energy alternative for Europe 
as you can see on map 6 
Map 6
The problem is that it is very difficult and very costly to build a pipeline network through the 
Mediterranean See if Turkey is involved in the project. But with the current political situation 
between Turkey and Israel this does not seem to be feasible, at least not for Israel’s part of 
energy. 
The natural gas found in the Israeli sea, might be the only chip for survival that Israel has in this 
energy hungry world. It seems that Israel is giving Russia a role in its energy wealth. At the 
following Bloomberg link you can see the cooperation between Gazprom and the Israelis. 
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-26/gazprom-holds-talks-to-export-all-lng-from-israeli- 
tamar-project.html 
It seems that in a world where Israelis cannot count on the protection of the Americans, they are 
moving towards Russia. They are not connected to Russia in the same way they were connected 
to the U.S.A., but it seems they are somewhere between these two countries. At the following 
Financial Times link, you can see that Israel did not vote against Russia in the U.N. resolution 
about Ukraine. It rather preferred to abstain. 
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a51509b2-c665-11e3-ba0e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz39QhkKtrJ 
The FT examines the causes for this behavior and at the end of the article say: 
“But the strongest motivation for Israel to stay out of the Ukraine fracas lies in the present day 
and closer to home: Russia is a strong and growing power in the Middle East. 
Israel needs to engage Moscow on several vital issues: Iran’s nuclear programme and the 
dismantlement of Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile. Moscow is the biggest foreign patron of 
Bashar al-Assad’s Syria and a major supplier of arms to the Middle East in general. 
Behind closed doors, Israel has prevailed on Russia to refrain from supplying game-changing 
weapons to Syria that could land in the hands of Hizbollah, its best-armed regional enemy.” 
Moreover as you can see at the following Wikipedia link, Avigdor Lieberman, the Israeli Foreign 
Affairs Minister, is a Russian Jew. He was born in Russia, served in the Russian Army, and later
immigrated to Israel with his family. It is “strange” that the Israelis chose a Russian soldier as 
their Minister of Foreign Affairs. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avigdor_Lieberman 
Some people are confused because the U.S. is still giving Israel some financial aid. For example 
they recently offered Israel 200 million dollars in terms of financial aid. But Israel was receiving 
approximately 3 billion dollars a year in American aid some years ago. This 200 million dollars, 
is some of the last money Israel is receiving from United States as you can read at the following 
article 
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steven-strauss/us-aid-israel_b_4251742.html 
For Israel there is another big problem, namely the pipelines that will transfer natural gas from 
the Persian Gulf to European markets, and more specifically the pipelines that will transfer 
natural gas from the Persian Gulf’s South Pars/North Dome field. South Pars/North Dome is the 
richest natural gas filed in the world and it lies between Qatar and Iran. It is jointly owned by 
Qatar and Iran. You can see it on map 7. 
Map 7
These pipelines are the real cause of the current war in Iraq and Syria. Muslims are divided in 
Sunis and Shias. And the Shias want to transfer the natural gas through the route Iran-Iraq-Syria- 
Lebanon-Mediterranean Sea- Europe and the Sunis through the route Qatar-Saudi Arabia-Jordan- 
Syria-Turkey-Europe. You can see both the Suni (purple color) and Shia (red color) pipelines at 
the following map 
Map 8 
Sunis and Shias are currently fighting in Syria and Iraq. As you can see on map 9, if Sunis win 
Syria and Iraq, Shias cannot go ahead with their pipeline. The only other route to reach Europe 
would be through Turkey. But Turkey is on the Suni side. The problem for Israel is that 
Americans are supporting the Sunis in this conflict. Americans are very good friends with Qatar, 
one of the owners of South Pars/ North Dome. The Russians support the Shia pipeline i.e. Iran. 
It is known that Qatar is one of the countries that heavily fund Hamas, which is the terrorist 
organization that throws rockets from Gaza to Israel, and it is officially recognized by U.S.A. and 
Europe as a terrorist organization. Therefore Israel cannot count on the Americans at least for as 
long as they back their lethal enemies. On the other hand, Iran is with Russia on this fight, and
together they support Assad in Syria. But Iran is also funding Hamas. But it is in direct 
competition with Qatar on this pipeline fight. 
But it is Iran’s nuclear program that is the lethal threat to Israelis. And it is the Russians that 
control the nuclear program of the Iranians. And the Americans do not seem very interested in 
preventing Iran from developing its nuclear arsenal. As you can see on the fourth paragraph of 
the following Wikipedia link, it is the Russians that developed the first nuclear factory in Iran. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran 
And as you can see on the following Reuters link, the Russians will develop another 8 nuclear 
reactors in Iran. 
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/05/22/iran-nuclear-russia-idUKL6N0O83KX20140522 
And it is the Russians that provide weapons to Syrians one of Israel’s oldest foe. If you also take 
into account that Obama is a president who seems to have strong ties with the Muslim world but 
also with the Muslim Brotherhood, it should not be a big surprise that the Israelis have a Russian 
soldier as their Minister of Foreign Affairs. You should also have a look at this video about how 
U.S.A. indirectly helps Hamas. 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WN_i0UKB3ZU&index=4&list=PL2bOp7h44zv65ap- 
PbglPHKSLSdHAAjQM 
You should also do some research on the relations of the U.S.A. and Qatar, and on the relation of 
Qatar, Iran and Turkey with Hamas. It will help you understand the current geopolitical situation.
Map 9 
It seems that the 21st century will a tough one for Israel.
I have written a lot in my previous essays about the Baku-Ceyhan and the Baku-Supsa pipelines 
(white lines on the map), as the only American success in the Caspian Sea region, a region which 
is controlled by the Russians and the Iranians. With the help of the only NATO friendly country 
of the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, the Americans managed to construct a pipeline that bypassed 
both Iran and Russia, using the energy corridor Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey, transferring Caspian 
energy to the Mediterranean Sea (Ceyhan) and to the Black Sea (Supsa). 
They did so, in order to provide the European markets with an alternative to the Russian energy, 
thus decreasing the Russian influence over Europe, hoping that eventually they would manage to 
influence some of the other corrupted dictators of the Caspian countries too, who are currently 
under Russian influence, since Azerbaijan’s energy reserves are clearly inadequate to compete 
with the Russian ones. 
At the following tables you can see the Caspian region reserves by country.
As you can see at the above table, the Americans and the Europeans need the oil rich Kazakhstan 
in order to fill their oil pipelines, and they need the natural gas rich Turkmenistan in order to fill 
their future natural gas pipelines, if they finally develop a natural gas pipeline network. 
Alternatively they can take Iran on their side, since Iran is twice as rich as Russia in terms of oil, 
and its natural gas reserves amount to 2/3 of the Russian ones, and therefore Iran can clearly 
compete with Russia.
The Ceyhan-Haifa Pipeline 
Moreover they planned to construct a new underwater four leg pipeline from Ceyhan to Haifa, 
which would carry crude oil, natural gas, electricity and water from Turkey to Israel, which 
would distribute it in the whole region, but also to the port of Eilat and then to South Asia, again 
bypassing Iran (red line on the map). You can read about the Ceyhan-Haifa pipeline at the above 
European Commission link, pages 10 and 11, tables 3.2.3 and 3.2.7, or you can see it visually at 
the following map. 
http://ec.europa.eu/energy/observatory/doc/country/2009_12_turkey.pdf 
Source: 
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.gr/2012/04/complexity-of-eastern-med-energy-games.html 
Also note that the rich in oil Kirkuk in North Iraq (Iraqi Kurdistan), is also connected to the 
Turkish port of Ceyhan, with the pipeline Kirkuk-Ceyhan (yellow line on the map). Therefore the 
underwater Ceyhan-Haifa connection would actually be a connection of Baku and Kirkuk with 
the Israeli port of Eilat in the Red Sea, and finally to South Asia (Pakistan, India, China) 
bypassing Iran. After describing the Ceyhan pipelines and before turning to the Israel-Lebanon 
War of 2006, I must also say a few words about the economic and geopolitical implications of 
these pipelines.
An obvious consequence of the Baku-Ceyhan, Baku-Supsa pipelines was that the Russians were 
very angry, since the Americans and the Europeans could compete with them in Europe if they 
finally manage to reach countries rich in oil and natural gas. Another consequence was that Iran 
was even angrier than Russia, since the Baku-Eilat pipeline would transfer Caspian energy to 
South East Asia bypassing Iran. As you can see on the map, the shortest way to provide Caspian 
Energy to South Asia is through Iran. 
However with the Baku-Ceyhan and the Ceyhan-Haifa-Eilat pipelines, another financially viable 
route was created, in order to provide Caspian energy to South Asia bypassing Iran, since for 
most of the distance (Baku-Eilat) only pipelines would be used, which is a very efficient way of 
transferring energy, and tankers would only be used from the port of Eilat. This was of course 
very bad for Iran’s exports, but also for its geopolitical significance. 
I have said many times in the past how important it is for Iran to construct a pipeline network 
that would connect it to Pakistan, India and finally China (black line on the map), since it would 
make Iran much more competitive than Saudi Arabia, its main competitor in oil markets, and 
Qatar, its main competitor in natural gas markets, since as you can see on the map, Saudi Arabia 
and Qatar cannot be connected to South Asia with a pipeline network. Geographically it is only 
possible for Iran to do so. For a detailed description on the war against Iran, in order to prevent it 
from connecting itself through pipelines to Pakistan, India and China, see my previous essays. 
Therefore the Saudis and the Qataris do not want a pipeline connection between Iran, Pakistan, 
India and China, since it would make Iran more competitive in these markets which are currently 
dominated by the Saudis in oil sales and by the Qataris in natural gas sales. Moreover the 
Americans do not want this to happens, since it would connect China to the Persian Gulf, and it 
would enable China to obtain Persian Gulf energy bypassing the Indian Ocean which is 
dominated by the American Navy, which makes it possible for the Americans to ‘unplug’ China 
very easily in the case of a war. China partially fixed this weakness with the 400 billion dollar 
mammoth deal with Russia, according to which Russia will supply China with natural gas for the 
next 30 years. 
The Indians, who are a key connection between Iran and China, do not want to be so heavily 
dependent for their energy imports on the politically unstable Persian Gulf, since there is always 
the possibility of a ‘hot’ war, which would prevent access to the Persian Gulf and to energy 
supplies. They have therefore been constantly looking for the past years for a competitive 
alternative to the Persian Gulf energy supply. Moreover having access to many energy sources is 
not only good in terms of energy security, but it also ensures better energy prices.
For Indians the Iran-Pakistan-India-China pipeline was one of the Persian Gulf alternatives, since 
even if access to the Persian Gulf by sea was prevented due to a war, supply could continue 
through the pipelines, and they have therefore many times in the past tried to promote this 
project, without however so far being successful. On the other hand this pipeline would pass 
through Pakistan, India’s main enemy, and it had its own weakness in terms of energy security. 
Therefore the Baku-Eilat connection would offer India an alternative to the Persian Gulf, which 
would have nothing to do with Pakistan. The following Asia Times article calls the Ceyhan-Eilat 
pipeline a ‘lifeline’ for India, since it is an alternative to the Persian Gulf and at the same time it 
is a source of energy independent from Pakistan. 
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/JB27Df03.html 
You can also read about how important the Ceyhan-Eilat pipeline would be for India in the 
following Times of India article. 
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Turkey-offers-alternative-to-Iran-pipeline/ 
articleshow/2770237.cms 
This is one more article on the subject from Pakistan Defence, but you can find many other 
articles if you simply google ‘Ceyhan-Haifa Pipeline and India’ or something similar. 
http://defence.pk/threads/turkey-offers-alternative-to-iran-pipeline.9754/ 
Therefore the Baku-Eilat pipeline would not only bypass Iran, but it would reduce the pressure 
on the part of the South Asian countries for promoting the badly needed for Iran project of the 
Iran-Pakistan-India-China pipeline. Could it be worse for Iran? That’s why Saudi Arabia and
Qatar did not object to the Ceyhan-Eilat connection, because they realize that if the South Asian 
countries do not have an alternative to the Persian Gulf, they will press harder for a land 
connection with Iran. 
The Saudis and the Qataris can compete with oil and natural gas flowing from Eilat to South 
Asia, but they cannot compete with oil and natural gas flowing from Iran to South Asia through 
pipelines. After this large introduction I can finally turn to the Israel-Lebanon War of 2006.
The Israel-Lebanon War of 2006 
As you can read at section ‘Inauguration’ of the following Wikipedia link, the Baku-Ceyhan 
pipeline, it was inaugurated at its Ceyhan terminal on 13.7.2006. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku%E2%80%93Tbilisi 
%E2%80%93Ceyhan_pipeline#Inauguration 
As you can read at the following Wikipedia link on 12.7.2006, one day before the Ceyhan 
inauguration, Hezbollah terrorists attacked the Israelis starting the 2006 Israel-Lebanon War. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Lebanon_War 
More specifically, the second paragraph of the above link says: 
‘The conflict was precipitated by the Zar'it-Shtula incident. On 12 July 2006, militants from the 
group Hezbollah fired rockets at Israeli border towns as a diversion for an anti-tank missile 
attack on two armored Humveespatrolling the Israeli side of the border fence. The ambush left 
three soldiers dead. Two Israeli soldiers were abducted and taken by Hezbollah to Lebanon. Five 
more were killed in Lebanon, in a failed rescue attempt. Hezbollah demanded the release of 
Lebanese prisoners held by Israel in exchange for the release of the abducted soldiers. Israel 
refused and responded with airstrikes and artillery fire on targets in Lebanon. Israel attacked both 
Hezbollah military targets and Lebanese civilian infrastructure, including Beirut's Rafic Hariri 
International Airport. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched a ground invasion of southern 
Lebanon. Israel also imposed an air and naval blockade. Hezbollah then launched more rockets 
into northern Israel and engaged the IDF in guerrilla warfare from hardened position’ 
Moreover at the end of the first paragraph of the above link you can read the following: 
‘Due to unprecedented Iranian military support to Hezbollah before and during the war, some 
consider it the first round of the Iran–Israel proxy conflict, rather than a continuation of the Arab- 
Israeli conflict.’ 
In section ‘Contacts with Hezbollah’ of the following Wikipedia link, you can read the following: 
‘Russian intelligence agencies have a history of contacts with Lebanese Shia organizations, such 
as Amal Movement and Hezbollah Russian-made anti-tank weapons played significant role in 
Hezbollah operations against Israel Defense Forces during 2006 Israel-Lebanon conflict. It was 
claimed that "Russian Fajr-1 and Fajr-3 rockets, Russian AT-5 Spandrel antitank missiles and 
Kornet antitank rockets"have been supplied to Hezbollah through Syria and Iran Muslim
GRUdetachments from Chechnya were transferred to Lebanon independently of the United 
Nations Interim Force in Lebanon to guard the Russian military engineers (sent to Lebanon to 
restore the damaged roads) and "to improve Moscow’s image in the Arab and Muslim world.’ 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_and_the_Iran 
%E2%80%93Israel_proxy_conflict#Contacts_with_Hezbollah 
In section ‘Arab League’ of the following Wikipedia link you can read: 
‘The Arab League has called Hezbollah's attacks on Israel "unexpected, inappropriate, and 
irresponsible acts," in the words of Saudi Arabia's foreign minister, PrinceSaud Al-Faisal. The 
Arab League says they have “fears of widening of tension and possible Israeli strike against 
Syria,“ “It’s up to the resistance — both the Lebanese and the Palestinian — to decide what they 
are doing and why are they fighting. 
Following a meeting of Arab League foreign ministers in Cairo on 16 July, Secretary-General 
Amr Moussa declared that "The Middle East process is dead" and that "The only way to revive 
the peace process is to take it back to the Security Council’. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_2006_Lebanon_War#.C2.A0Arab_L 
eague 
At section United States of the following Wikipedial link you can read: 
‘Following the Zar'it-Shtula incident, the United States government condemned what it called 
Hezbollah's "unprovoked act of terrorism", and called for the "immediate and unconditional 
release" of the soldiers. 
The United States rushed a delivery of satellite and laser-guided bombs to Israel, at Israel's 
request. The shipment was not publicly announced. 
In addition, the United States has thus far rejected what it considers to be meaningless calls for a 
cease-fire . "The Bush administration has openly rejected calls for a ceasefire. The New York 
Times reports that U.S. and Israeli officials have agreed the bombings will continue for another 
week. "On Tuesday [18 July 2006] Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice rejected an immediate 
ceasefire and said one could only occur once certain conditions are met.’ 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_2006_Lebanon_War#.C2.A0United_ 
States 
At section Iran of the following Wikipedia link you can read:
‘Foreign ministry spokesman Hamid-Reza Asefi condemned Israel's response stating, "The 
Zionist regime is desperate because of the resistance put up by regional Muslim nations and is 
now resorting to blind tactics against the innocent people of Lebanon with full US backing."[27] 
Iran also adds that an Israeli attack against Syriawould be considered an attack against the entire 
Muslim world and it would bring about a "fierce response."[28] Iranian President Mahmoud 
Ahmadinejad, quoted by the Iranian News Agency, said "The Zionists think that they are victims 
of Hitler, but they act like Hitler and behave worse than Genghis Khan.’ 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_2006_Lebanon_War#.C2.A0Iran 
At section Iraq of the following Wikipedia link you will read that Iraq condemned the Israelis. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_2006_Lebanon_War#.C2.A0Iraq 
Even though the pipelines were good for Iraq, since Iraq could export its oil to South Asia 
bypassing Iran, Iraq condemned Israel. The reason is that after the fall of Saddam Hussein in 
2003, an Iraq had a Shiite governemnt, and even though it was pro-American, it was very closely 
cooperating with the Shiites of Iran, and Iraq did not feel that there was any need to bypass its 
ally. 
At section Russia of the following Wikipedia link you will read that Russia condemned the 
Israelis. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_2006_Lebanon_War#.C2.A0Russia 
However for the Russians things were more complicated than the Iranians, because the Russians 
were of course against the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, but I do not think that they were against the 
Ceyhan-Haifa four leg pipeline, since Russia and Turkey are very well connect with pipeline 
networks, because Russia is the main natural gas supplier of Turkey, and Russia could use the 
Ceyhan-Haifa pipeline to sell its own natural gas. 
There is already the Blue Stream natural gas pipeline that connects Russia and Turkey under the 
Black Sea, and they are planning the construction of the Blue Stream 2 pipeline, that would 
connect Samsun to Ceyhan as you can see on the following 2 maps.
Source: 
http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Turkey-Israel-to-build-Mediterranean-pipeline-2498862.php 
Source: 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Stream
Therefore the Russians could sell to the whole region their natural gas through the route Samsun- 
Ceyhan and Ceyhan-Haifa. However this is back in 2006, and the problems in the American- 
Israeli relations are not present yet nor is the Israel-Russia rapprochement, and therefore the 
Russians have to support their traditional allies i.e. Syria, Iran and Lebanon. 
It is therefore quite simple to explain the Middle East wars if you look at the oil and natural gas 
that is always hidden in the background of these wars. However the Israelis have some problems 
of their own with Lebanon, since their natural gas supplies are near the Israeli-Lebanese borders, 
and the Lebanese claim that a part of these natural gas reserves belong to them as you can see at 
the following two maps. 
Source: 
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/07/120703-israel-new-natural-gas/
Source: 
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139069/yuri-m-zhukov/trouble-in-the-eastern-mediterranean- 
sea 
Therefore the Israelis and the Lebanese, besides all the disputes I have mentioned so far, have the 
natural gas disputes too. However it is mainly Iran that owns Hezbollah, since it is Iran that 
provides for Hezbollah funding and weapons, and it is on Iran’s orders that Hezbollah acts. Iran 
has done with Hezbollah, what Qatar has done in Gaza with Hamas. Qatar owns Hamas. It 
provides its funding and weapons and through this funding Hamas managed to provide financial 
support to the people of Gaza and won the elections in 2006, and did not conduct other elections 
since that time. 
Therefore in the same way that Iran bought Hezbollah at the northern border of Israel, Qatar 
bought Hamas at the Southern borders of Israel (Gaza). For the relationship between Qatar and 
Hamas and Iran and Hezbollah you can simply google ‘Qatar Hamas’ and ‘Iran Hezbollah’ to 
find hundreds of articles. 
The main dispute between Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah is natural gas. Israel is trying to provide 
an alternative source of natural gas to Europe, either through Cyprus and Greece or by liquefying 
its natural gas and exporting it with ships. Iran and Qatar are the 2nd and 3rd richest countries in 
the world in terms of natural gas reserves, and Israel is closer to Europe and would provide a
cheaper alternative even though it has far less reserves, and why not in Africa too. Recently I 
wrote an essay about the 15 billion dollar natural gas agreement between Israel and Jordan. 
Therefore even though the Shiite Muslims of Iran and the Sunni Muslims of Qatar are the 2nd 
and 3rd richest countries in the world in natural gas reserves, and therefore hate each other as we 
can see with the war in Syria and Iraq now, they both do not want Israel to provide an alternative 
to the natural gas markets of Europe and Africa, with the help of other Mediterranean countries 
too, like Egypt, Greece and Cyprus. This is the reason Qatar is pushing so hard for the Muslim 
Brotherhood to come back to power in Egypt, since the Brotherhood is under its influence. With 
the Muslim Brotherhood in power Qatar could ensure that Egypt would not undercut its prices. 
Therefore in the same way that Iran bought Hezbollah at the Israeli-Lebanese borders (black 
circle in the following map), Qatar bought Hams in Gaza (blue circle), and in the same way the 
Sunni Muslim terrorists of Hamas take orders from Qatar and Turkey, the Shiite Muslim 
terrorists of Hezbollah take orders from Iran. Therefore Qatar and Iran can use Hamas and 
Hezbollah to launce energy wars on Israel whenever they want. 
As you can read at the following article, Hamas and Hezbollah had very good relations, until the 
great war between the Sunni Muslims of Saudi Arabia and Qatar and the Shiite Muslims of Iran 
and Iran broke out, as I was saying in my essay ‘The Energy War Between U.S.A. and Russia’. 
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/islamists/article/the-marriage-and-divorce-hamas-and-hezbollah
Source: 
http://www.nektarinanonprofit.com/2012/03/israel.html 
Therefore it can be seen that the Israel-Lebanon War of 2006 was another hot energy war, in the 
sequence of the hot and cold energy wars taking place in the Middle East for the last one hundred 
years. Any analysis about the wars in the Middle East that is not based on oil and natural gas is 
always totally inadequate. 
The following Financial Times article of 21st Mai 2014, reported that Israel was very close to 
signing agreements with Egypt and Jordan for exporting Israeli natural gas to these countries, 
from Leviathan, Israel's largest natural gas field. 
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/02ea38aa-e0e2-11e3-a934-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl 
At the following article of Haaretz, which is as you can see at the following Wikipedia link, 
Israel’s oldest newspaper, and its English version is published with the New York Times, 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haaretz
it was reported on 30 June 2014 that Israel did finally sign an agreement to export to Egypt 30 
billion dollars of natural gas in the next 15 years. That is 2 billion dollars of natural gas each 
year, and it amounts to 20% of Leviathan’s capacity. 
http://www.haaretz.com/business/.premium-1.601980 
At the following article of the Times of Israel, an electronic newspaper that is published in 3 
languages, it was reported on 3 September 2014, that Israel did finally sign an agreement to 
export to Jordan 15 billion dollars of natural gas in the next 15 years. 
http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-signs-15-billion-gas-deal-with-jordan/ 
What happened in the time between the Financial Times article on 21 Mai 2014, which reported 
that Israel was close to signing the agreements and the Haaretz article on 30 June, which reported 
the actual 30 billion dollar agreement between Egypt and Israel? 
Well what happened is that the 3 Israeli teenagers were abducted by Hamas on 12 June 2014, as 
you can read at the first line of the following Wikipedia link, in section “Immediate Events”. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Israel%E2%80%93Gaza_conflict#Immediate_events 
At the first paragraph of the following Wikipedia link, you can read that on 7 July 2014, one 
week after the agreement between Israel and Egypt, Hamas took responsibility for the teenagers’ 
abductions and at the same time it launched 40 rockets to Israel. One day later, on the 8 July 
2014, the Israeli army entered Gaza. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Israel%E2%80%93Gaza_conflict 
It is well known that Hamas is funded by Qatar. Hamas won the elections in 2006 by providing 
financial help to the people of Gaza. In a sense Qatar bought a military camp at the Israeli 
borders. Qatar is the 3rd richest country in the world in terms of proven natural gas reserves, 
after Russia and Iran, and could have easlily provided the natural gas to Egypt and Jordan 
instead. 
One of the main reasons that Qatar funded and wholeheartedly supported the Muslim 
Brootherhood candidate in Egypt, Muhammad Morsi, is that if Morsi was in power he would 
have never made a deal with Israel, since the Muslim Brotherhood is supported by Qatar. 
At the following Wikipedia link, section ‘Aftermath’, 2-3 lines before the end of the section, 
where the consequences of the Arab Spring on the Egypt-Israel 1978 Peace Agreement are 
examined, you can read that the deputy chief of the Muslim Brotherhood said that the 
Brotherhood does not recognize Israel’s right to exist.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt%E2%80%93Israel_Peace_Treaty#Aftermath 
At the following BBC article you can read how much Qatar supported the Muslim Brotherhood 
and its candidate Morsi. In the 6th and 7th paragraph you can read that Qatar did not give all that 
money for nothing, but instead to make sure that Egypt would buy natural gas from Qatar. I copy 
these two paragraphs. 
“....But this was not a charitable giveaway. It was in the nature of an investment. A Qatari 
economist told the BBC: "We couldn't stand by and let Egypt collapse", but the billions came 
with an expectation - "I'll give you the money, show me the outcome," he said. 
The Qataris had already secured a lucrative deal to sell their gas to the Egyptians and they were 
proposing to heavily invest in the redevelopment of the Suez Canal...”. 
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-23185441 
Many socialists that are financed by Qatar say that the Brotherhood was democratically elected. 
As you can read in the 3rd paragraph of the following Wikipedia link, as soon as he was elected, 
Morsi started changing the law to rule as a dictator. I copy from the link. 
“…As president, Morsi granted himself unlimited powers and the power to legislate without 
judicial oversight or review of his acts….” 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_Morsi 
Moreover you can read at the following Haaretz article that the Israelis have agreed to sell to the 
Palestinian Authority in West Bank 1.2 billion dollar in natural gas. But this is a small amount 
compared to the 45 billion dollar deals with Egypt and Jordan, and Qatar would have not 
probably minded. As you can see the deal was singed in January 2014 and there was no war in 
Gaza. It was before the agreements with Egypt and Jordan that the war broke out. Nobody starts 
a war for 1.2 billion dollars. 
http://www.haaretz.com/business/1.567216

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Oil Wars

  • 1. Oil Wars Iakovos Alhadeff
  • 2. Copyright 2014 by Iakovos Alhadeff Published by Iakovos Alhadeff at Smashwords
  • 3. TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction China Russia Iran vs the U.S.A. The Shanghai Cooperation Agreement as a Challenge to NATO The U.S.A. Russia Energy War as a Simple Addition The U.S.A. Russia Energy War in 3 Paragraphs The 3 Wars for the Baku-Ceyhan Pipeline The True Causes of the Conflict Between Turkey and Israel The Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline and the Creation of PKK The War in Kosovo and the Baku-Ceyhan Pipeline Why Saudi Arabia Blamed Hamas and Qatar Blamed Israel in the July 2014 Gaza War The New Cold War Between U.S.A. and Russia The Ceyhan-Haifa Pipeline and the Israel-Lebanon War of 2006
  • 4. Introduction What follows are some very short essays I wrote about oil and natural gas wars. Each chapter is an independent. They are independent in the sense that they were not written to form the parts of a booklet, since all oil and natural gas wars are interrelated.
  • 5. China Russia Iran vs the U.S.A. China’s agreements with Kazakhstan and Russia, for the construction of pipelines that will supply China with oil and natural gas from these two countries were of great geopolitical importance, for both China and Russia as individual countries, but also as a coalition against the U.S.A. It is not a secret that the Russian oligarchs, most of them ex KGB agents, have formed an alliance with the Chinese communists against the Americans. The Russians to begin with, sell most of their natural gas to the European markets. If the Europeans were to boycott them, they would face severe financial difficulties. With the new contract with the Chinese, the Russians will sell 400 billion dollars of natural gas to the Chinese for the next 30 years and will have a second major buyer. The Chinese on the other hand, in contrast to the oil and natural gas rich Russians, have to import most of their oil and natural gas. Energy dependence on the Persian Gulf is a great handicap for the Chinese, since the Gulf is dominated militarily by the Americans (area in the red circle).
  • 6. Moreover, the ships carrying energy from the Gulf to China have to pass though the straits between Malaysia and Indonesia (area with blue circle). However Malaysia has a close military cooperation with the U.S.A. Basically the Americans can very easily cut off the Chinese energy supplies in case of a military confrontation. With energy flowing from Kazakhstan and Russia, the Chinese ensure that they will not run out of fuels in case of a confrontation. For an article on the tensions between the U.S.A. and China for the Persian Gulf oil see the following Wall Street Journal article. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887324755104579073283948517714 Moreover China has built with Turkmenistan a natural gas pipeline, following the route Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan-China (orange line), see Wikipedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Asia%E2%80%93China_gas_pipeline China also wants to get hold of Iranian energy. This can be done through an extension of the Iran-Pakistan pipeline (pink line), see Forbes. http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Iran-Pakistan-Natural-Gas-Pipeline-to-Extend-to- China.html This could also be done through an extension of the Turkmenistan line to Iran (green line). That would strengthen both China and Iran. It would greatly increase China’s energy options and security and it would protect Iran against sanctions from the West. We therefore see that there is a very strong coalition of inferior civilizations against the Americans, consisting mainly of Chinese Communists, Iranian Mullahs and Russian ex KGB agents and current oligarchs. We could say that the Americans lost completely the energy battle of the Caspian Sea, since they only control Azerbaijan, which is a NATO friendly country, and they only managed to transfer some Caspian oil to the Mediterranean through the Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey route (the Baku- Ceyhan pipeline).. For the Americans and the Europeans it is very important that Europe is not heavily dependent on Russia in terms of its energy supplies. Therefore the Americans were hoping, and still hope, to
  • 7. transfer natural gas either from the Persian Gulf or from the Caspian Sea through Turkey to Europe. That would reduce European (NATO) dependency on Gazprom. We should therefore not assume that the Americans have the power to fight energy rich aborigines for ever. If we take the American military power as given, we might wake up one day to see the Chinese Communists being the number one military power in the world. And this is very scary. For the Russian Chinese deal see Forbes. http://www.forbes.com/sites/chriswright/2014/05/22/400-billion-gas-deal-shows-russia-looking-to- china-to-replace-western-money/ For the China Kazakhstan deal see Wikipedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kazakhstan%E2%80%93China_oil_pipeline For the Turkmenistan China deal see Wikipedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Asia%E2%80%93China_gas_pipeline
  • 8. The Shanghai Cooperation Agreement as a Challenge to NATO The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is a political, economic and military cooperation. It currently has 6 full member states, namely Russia, China, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzdtan and Tajikistan. Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India are observing states, and Turkmenistan is a guest state. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation The Shanghai Cooperation Organization aims to become what the Warsaw Pact used to be i.e. a challenge to NATO. I would like to say a few words about the member states’ regimes. China’s political regime is a communist dictatorship. Kazakhstan is ruled by Nursultan Nazarbayev, which has been the only president since Kazakhstan’s independence, and he is the former general secretary of Kazakhstan’s Communist Pary. In the 2004 elections, his party gained 90% of the parliament’s seats, and the Agrarian party, which was led by his daughter gained the remaining seats, except one seat that was gained by the remaining parties. Uzbekistan is ruled by Islam Karimov, who has been the only president since the country’s independence in 1991. Islam Karimov is a former member of the Soviet Communist Party.
  • 9. Tajikistan is ruled by Emomalli Rahmon, who is again the only president since the country’s independence in 1994. Iran is an Islamic country, where the Supreme Leader is the ultimate authority, and he is more powerful than the elected Iranian president. The Supreme Leader is appointed by the Assembly of Experts, which is a council of Islamic theologians. Turkmenistan, since its independence in 1991, is ruled by the president for life Saparmurat Niyazov. Russia is the only country which has some elements of democracy, however also ruled by ex KGB agents like Putin, and ex members of the Communist Party, which are today’s oligarchs. Russian people never experienced freedom and democracy, since they were ruled by Tsars, and then from 1917 to the early 90’s they were under a regime of communist dictatorship. Today’s regime with the rule of the ex KGB and ex Communist oligarchs, is Russia’s highest democratic achievement. If Iran and Turkmenistan become full members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Organization will control over 60% of the world’s natural gas reserves, and a very large part of the world’s oil reserves. Moreover if Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and Mongolia that are currently observing members become full members, the Organization will have fully encircled the Persian Gulf and the American military bases in Qatar, as you can see on the map. The Persian Gulf holds most of the oil and natural gas reserves that are outside the Organization’s control today. And what do we hear from both Communists and Nazis? We hear that NATO is a fascist organization, and we can only hope on the strengthening of organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Agreement, because no matter where Communists and Nazis live, they always have a third world mentality. As you can see at the following link at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit of September 2014, the Organization will invite India, Pakistan, Mongolia and Iran to become full members and not simply observing members as they currently are. http://indian.ruvr.ru/2014_08_01/SCO--admit-new-members/
  • 10. If they do become full members of the SCO, the only two members that are missing for the black diagram of the map to close, and encircle the American military forces in the Persian Gulf, will be Turkmenistan and Afghanistan. Moreover, as you can see at the following link, Turkey is examining the possibility of becoming a full member of the SCO. If Turkey becomes an SCO member, the transfer of oil and natural gas from the Caspian Sea and the Persian Gulf to Europe, will not be controlled by NATO anymore, but from the SCO instead. http://thediplomat.com/2013/12/turkey-renews-plea-to-join-shanghai-cooperation-organization/
  • 11. The U.S.A. Russia Energy War as a Simple Addition I keep saying that the Americans and the Europeans are desperately looking for an alternative to Gazprom natural gas network, in order to diminish Russian influence over European countries, since Gazprom provides almost 30% of Europe’s natural gas imports. Russia’s main energy hub is Ukraine, and the West is hoping to use Turkey as its hub, in order to transfer natural gas from the Persian Gulf or the Caspian Sea to Europe. It is a well known fact, that the energy resources of the NATO friendly Azerbaijan are not sufficient to cover European demand. The Americans will have to connect to the Azerbaijani network, natural gas from the other countries of the region. The countries at the other side of the Caspian i.e. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, are tied with long contracts and pipelines to China and Russia. China imports their gas in order to consume it, and Russia in order to prevent it from falling to Western hands and resell it through Gazprom. You can see at the following Wikipedia link, and at the picture above, the richest countries in the world in terms of natural gas reserves. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_natural_gas_proven_reserves
  • 12. You can see that even if the Americans manage to bring Qatari natural gas to the Azerbaijani network, if Iran is controlled by the Russians and the Chinese, most of the world natural gas resources will be controlled by the Russians and the Chinese. The West will only control the Qatari natural gas i.e. 25 billion cubic meters, and the Russians with the Chinese will be controlling the natural gas of Russia, Iran and Turkmenistan i.e. 48.7+33.6+17.5= 100 billion cubic meters. The West will only control ¼ of the East’s natural gas. This would be a major power shift in the geopolitical field, and the U.S.A. would have to be crazy to allow it to happen, when they are spending annually 600 billion in military spending, while Russia and China together spend less than 200 billion. You can see the figures at the following Wikipedia link. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures If the West controls Iran, the West will control Qatar + Iran = 58 billion cubic meters, and the East will control Russia + Turkmenistan = 65 billion cubic meters. I therefore believe that the Iran will either have to cooperate with the West, or it will have to fall.
  • 13.
  • 14. The U.S.A. Russia Energy War in 3 Paragraphs There are only 4 big players in the natural gas market, the ones you can see in the black circles, namely Russia, Iran, Qatar, and Turkmenistan. There are only two energy hubs through which they can transport their natural gas to Europe, the ones in the red circles, namely Turkey and Ukraine. Russia’s problem is that the West, U.S.A. and E.U., has blocked its energy hub, namely Ukraine. The West’s problem is that even though Turkey, their energy hub, is free, they do not have enough gas to send to Europe to diminish the Russian influence, since Turkmenistan is controlled by Russia and China, Iran is a hostile to the West country, and Syria’s dictator Assad will not allow Qatar to build a pipeline to Turkey through Syria, since he is a close ally of Russia. The Russians partially got over their problem, by building the North Stream pipeline, which is a natural gas pipeline from Russia to Northern Europe that bypasses Ukraine through the Baltic Sea. They are currently trying to construct the South Stream pipeline, which will connect Russia to Southern Europe through the Caspian Sea, bypassing Ukraine too. For the moment the U.S.A. and the E.U. are successful in blocking this pipeline.
  • 15. The 3 Wars for the Baku-Ceyhan Pipeline At section ‘History’, of the second paragraph of the following Wikipedia link, you can read that the Baku-Ceyhan Pipeline, which was the only exit that the Americans managed to find through the NATO-friendly Azerbaijan for the Caspian Sea oil, in a region controlled by the Russians, was proposed to Georgia and Azerbaijan by the Turkish President Demirel in 1992. The pipeline would follow the route Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey (Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku%E2%80%93Tbilisi%E2%80%93Ceyhan_pipeline#History The Russian revenge towards Georgia, was to provide plenty of support to the separatists in the region of Abkhazia, and thus a war started between Georgia and the inhabitants of Abkhazia in 1992. See the first lines of the following wikipedia link. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Abkhazia_(1992%E2%80%9393)
  • 16. The Russian revenge towards Azerbaijan, was to provide plenty of support to the Armenian separatists of the region of Karabach in Azerbaijan. As you can read at the third paragraph of the following wikipedia link, Azerbaijan declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, and the Armenians of the Karaback asked for their independence as they had done in the past, and the Nagorno-Karabach War started in 1991 (there had been fights in the past too). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azerbaijan The Americans revenge was to support the Chechen separatists, and the first Russia Chechen war started in 1994. See first lines of the following wikipedia link. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Chechen_War You can therefore see how the big powers feed existing conflicts according to their own interests. In all the above cases the conflicts were already there, they were not created by the Russians and the Americans. The Russians and the Americans just used them for their own purposes.
  • 17. The True Causes of the Conflict Between Turkey and Israel I always found the conflict between Turkey and Israel strange, since the two countries had a long tradition of smooth commercial and military cooperation. And yet it seems now that Israel is perceived by Recep Erdogan, the Turkish Prime Minister, as his country’s major enemy. What happened? It was only in 2005, as you can see in paragraph “After AKP Ascendancy” of the following Wikipedia link, that Recep Erdogan, during his visit in Israel, informed the nationalist Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, that the Iranian nuclear program was not only a threat for Israel, but instead a threat for the whole world. Is it possible for someone to say something that will please the Israelis more than that? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Turkey_relations#After_AKP_ascendancy Moreover, as you can read in the same paragraph, during his staying in Israel, Recep Erdogan, paid a visit to the Holocaust Museum, and said that for his party, anti-Semitism was a crime against humanity, and also that the Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs said that the relations between Israel and Turkey were perfect. So what changed so dramatically, and today Turkey is with Iran and Qatar the major supporters of the terrorist organization Hamas, which is the organization that launches rockets from Gaza to Israel? As always the explanation is oil and natural gas. The first reason is the vast resources of natural gas that exist in the sea area between Cyprus and Israel, which you can see at the following Wikipedia map with green and orange. The vast area above the green country (Cyprus) is Turkey.
  • 18. Greece, Cyprus and Turkey, have long disputes about their Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ), since the latter determines who has what claims on the areas energy riches. And Turkey does not recognize the EEZ of Greece and Cyprus, since doing that would allow the two countries to exploit the region’s natural gas. Israel however, did recognize the Greek and Cypriot EEZ, as you can see at the following Wikipedia link. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exclusive_economic_zone#Greece Recognizing the Greek EEZ was a major blow in the Turkish-Israeli relations. Moreover, since Turkey was threatening Greece and Cyprus that it would retaliate in case they unilaterally declared their EEZ without Turkey’s approval, Greece, Cyprus and Israel formed a militarily coalition against Turkey. At the following Wikipedia link, at section Military Cooperation, you can read about the Greek-Israeli military cooperation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greece%E2%80%93Israel_relations#Military_collaboration In 2008 the first Greek-Israeli military exercise took place, under the code name Glorious Spartan. The second military exercise between the two countries, with code name Minoas 2010, was scheduled for the 26th of May 2010, and was supposed to last until the 3rd of June. The exercise started on the 26th as scheduled. However on the 31st of May 2010, in order to take revenge from Israel, Erdogan launched the Gaza Freedom Flotilla, a flotilla of 6 ships, with the ship Mavi Marmara on the lead. Supposedly the aim of the flotilla was to break the embargo imposed by the Israelis on Gaza’s port. However Erdogan was fully aware that there was no chance that the Israelis would allow that. If the Israelis were to do so, Hamas would not have to struggle in order to smuggle Iranian and Qatari rockets and weapons from Egypt to Gaza. They could simply use harbor cranes to unload them from big ships. Therefore there was not even the slightest chance of success, and Erdogan knew that very well. What Erdogan was hoping for, was that the Israelis would respond with violence to the attacks of the terrorists against its soldiers, when the latter would attempt to seize the ships, and use this blood to isolate Israel diplomatically. And that’s exactly what happened. Following the Mavi Marmara incident, the Greek government had to withdraw its military forces from the common exercise with the Israelis, ending the exercise on the 31st of May instead of the
  • 19. 3rd of June as scheduled. However this incident only temporarily terminated the Greek Israeli military cooperation. I must mention that Greek journalists were very pro Erdogan and anti Israel during the Mavi Marmara crisis, since most of them work for Greek businessmen who have very close ties with the Arabs, and therefore their interests are not always in tandem with national strategy. I mean that at a time when the Greek Army was conducting a military exercise with the Israelis, and the Israelis had recognized the Greek Exclusive Economic Zone, and while Greece had joined a common defense doctrine with Israel against Turkey, Erdogan was attacking Israel to retaliate, and the Greek reporters were supporting Erdogan. You can read about what I say in the following link of the Research Institute of European and American Studies. http://www.rieas.gr/research-areas/greek-israel-studies/2077-greek-israeli-cyprus-military-and-security- relations-a-preview-.html The second cause of the Turkish Israeli conflict is the natural gas and oil of the Persian Gulf. As I was explaining in great detail in my essay “The Energy War Between U.S.A. and Russia”, there is a great fight in the Middle East between the Shiites regimes of Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, and the Sunni regimes of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, U.A.E. and Turkey. The cause of the conflict is that both the Shiites and the Sunnis want to send Persian Gulf energy to Europe and East Asia with their own pipeline networks. Before the ISIS or ISIL attacks (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria or Islamic State of Iraq and Levant or simply Islamic State), Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Lebanon were controlled by Shiites(or Shia). These regimes wanted to send energy to Europe, following the route Iran-Iraq-Syria- Lebanon-Europe. You can read about the Iran-Iraq-Syria or the Shiite pipeline at the following Wikipedia link. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran-Iraq-Syria_pipeline You can see at the following Wikipedia map the route they would follow.
  • 20. Please not that Syria is controlled by Assad, who is an Alawite. Alawites are a branch of Shiite Islam, as you can read in the first few sentences of the following Wikipedia link. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alawites On the other hand, Sunni regimes i.e. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., Kuwait, and Turkey, want to build their own pipeline network, in order to send their energy to Europe, following the route Qatar-Saudi Arabia-Iraq-Syria-Turkey-Europe. You can read for the Qatar-Turkey pipeline at the following Wikipedia link. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar-Turkey_pipeline As you can see at the map, if Iraq and Syria are controlled by the Shiites, the Sunni pipeline is blocked. That’s the cause of the war in the region. Therefore Turkey’s interests are closely linked to Qatar’s interests, since the Qatar-Turkey pipeline will increase dramatically Turkey’s geopolitical significance as an international energy hub, and it will generate lot’s of revenues in hard currencies. But Qatar is one of Israel’s lethal enemies, and the major supporter of the terrorist organization Hamas, which launches rockets to Israel. Therefore the Sunni pipelines in the Middle East bring Turkey and Qatar much closer, and the energy triangle between Greece-Cyprus and Israel, move Israel and Turkey further apart. As it is
  • 21. most of the time the case, energy is the reason that Israel and Turkey, once a strong alliance, are now standing so far away. You can read more about the Pipeline war between the Sunnis and the Shiites at the following link. “The Energy War Between U.S.A. and Russia”. http://iakal.wordpress.com/2014/08/05/the-energy-war-between-u-s-a-and-russia-and-the-threat-for- israels-survival/
  • 22. The Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline and the Creation of PKK The oil pipeline of Kirkuk-Ceyhan (or Kirkuk-Yumurtalik) connects the oil rich Northern Iraq with the Turkish port of Ceyhan (white line). As you can read on page 90 of the following link of the International Transport Forum, an international think tank with 54 member countries, the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline was constructed in 1977 and its capacity was further increased in 1984. http://internationaltransportforum.org/Pub/pdf/09Turkey.pdf As you can read in the first paragraph of the following Wikipedia link, Abdullah Ocalan established the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) in 1978, and he launched his first attack against Turkey in 1984. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurdistan_Workers'_Party
  • 23. You can see that the dates of the pipeline and the PKK are almost the same. When the pipeline was constructed the PKK was established, and when the capacity of the pipeline was increased the PKK launched its first attack. Is this a coincidence? Iran and Iraq are the 4th and 5th richest countries in the world in terms of proven oil reserves. At that time the Iranian-Iraqi relations were very hostile, and they finally went into a very long war, the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-1988. The main conflict was the Shatt al Arab (Arvand Rud) river, which is formed by the Tiger and Euphrates confluence (red circle in the Iran-Iraq borders), and which ends in the Persian Gulf. This river was, and still is, very important for transfer oil from the rich fields of the region to the Persian Gulf, in order to export it, since the Persian Gulf is the largest oil exporting region in the world. You can read about the river conflict in section ‘Territorial Disputes’ of the following Wikipedia link. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shatt_al-Arab#Territorial_disputes According to the above link, the river of Shatt al Arab was always a source of conflict between the Ottoman Empire and Persia, and they actually had to sign an agreement in 1639 about it. Keep in mind that Tiger and Euphrates are a constant source of conflict between Turkey and Syria too. Therefore the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline which was of great help to Iraq as a source of extra revenue was a great problem for its foe. It is a common policy in the Middle East to fund various groups, either religious or sectarians or else, in order to attack their competitors’ pipeline infrastructure. As you can see on the map, Kirkuk is located in Northern Iraq, in the Iraqi Kurdistan. Kurdistan is the region in the red diagram, and it also has a Syrian, an Iraqi, an Iranian and a Turkish part. There is no evidence to support that it was Iran that financed the Kurds, but it would be something very reasonable to assume. At the following Wikipedia link you can see that the equivalent to PKK Kurdish organization in Iran, the PJAK, launched its first attack in Iran in 2004. The PKK launched its first attack in 1984 and the PJAK in 2004.
  • 25. The War in Kosovo and the Baku-Ceyhan Pipeline The war in Yugoslavia (Serbia) was another energy war. The population of Kosovo, in the southern part of Serbia, is 90% Muslims of Albanian origin as you can see at the following Wikipedia link. These people wanted to be independent from Serbia after the end of the communist period http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosovo_Albanians These separatists were embraced by the Americans and the Europeans. Before the creation of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (brown region) and the creation of Kosovo (green region), were both former parts of Yugoslavia. Yugoslavia together with Greece, both close
  • 26. Russian allies, could block oil or natural gas pipelines that could transfer Caspian oil or natural gas from the Black Sea to the Adriatic Sea, since these American and European pipelines would antagonize the Russian oil and natural gas industry. As you can see at the following link, the AMBP pipeline, is an oil pipeline transferring Caspian oil to the Adriatic Sea, following the route Ajerbaijan-Turkey-Bulgaria-FYROM-Albania- Adriatic Sea-Europe (black line on the map), which has been already agreed, but which has not been developed yet, as you can read at the following Wikipedia link. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMBO_pipeline Hence, the Kosovars of Albanian origin started protesting requiring their independence, the Serbs used violence against them, and on February of 1998, a NATO operation under the code name Operation Allied Force attacked Serbia. The attacks were carried out by 13 countries, namely U.S.A., Canada, Great Britain, France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Norway, Denmark and Turkey. These countries attacked Serbia and forced Serbia to accept an autonomous Kosovo. A large NATO base was established in Kosovo, namely the Kosovo Force, which would see that Albanian Kosovars were not threatened by the Serbs, and that any future pipelines crossing the region would be secure too. You can read about Kosovo Force in the following Wikipedia link. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosovo_Force The following link is a good chronological summary of the NATO attack in Serbia. http://www.jfcnaples.nato.int/page7196179.aspx
  • 27. Why Saudi Arabia Blamed Hamas and Qatar Blamed Israel in the July 2014 Gaza War It is a well know fact that Saudi Arabia is extremely rich in oil, Qatar is extremely rich in natural gas, and Turkey is not very rich in none of them. Israel has some natural gas riches, nothing in comparison to Qatar, but very poor in oil. It is a well known fact, that Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, all supported the rebels against Assad. However everybody agrees that they funded different rebel groups, since the Saudis are against the Muslim Brotherhood unlike the other two. Even though they all three were united against Assad, in the Gaza crisis of July 2014, Saudi Arabia blamed Hamas for the crisis, while Turkey and Qatar supported Hamas and blamed Israel. Why unlike the case with Assad they were divided? The reason is that Assad agreed with Iran, which is rich in both oil and natural gas, to an Iran- Iraq-Syria pipeline(red line), that would bring Iranian oil and natural gas to the Mediterranean Sea, thus hurting both oil rich Saudis, natural gas rich Qataris, and bypassing the poor in both Turkey, which wishes however to be the only energy hub in Southern Europe.
  • 28. Therefore all three were united. In the case of Israel however, the Saudis did not want to support Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood’ s offspring, since they are afraid that they are dangerous for their regime too. Since Israel does not have oil to export and hurt the Saudi sales, they supported Israel, because they thought it would be convenient for them to form a short term alliance with Israel, in order for Israel to finish the Muslim Brotherhood’s offspring i.e. Hamas. However the natural gas rich Qatar, and the bypassed as an energy hub by Israel’s exports’ (blue line) Turkey, did not afford to support Israel. Actually it is these two, with some support from Iran that required Hamas to fire the rockets. The Qataris are hoping to sell their natural gas to Europe through Turkey (black line).
  • 29. The New Cold War Between U.S.A. and Russia The conflict in Ukraine is only a part of the energy war between Russia and United States. Europe is very poor in terms of energy resources, but very rich in all other aspects. Both U.S.A. and Russia want to dominate the European energy market, since this does not only involve economic gains, but aslo increased diplomatic power. Energy is very important for all developed economies, and energy providers normally have political power over energy recipients. Russia is the richest country in natural gas reserves and the number one oil producer. It is not however the richest country in oil reserves. Please note that the richest countries in energy reserves are not necessarily the largest energy producers too. At the following Wikipedia link you can see Gazprom’s European market shares. Gazprom is the Russian state owned natural gas giant, and on average it holds 30% of the European natural gas market. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_in_the_European_energy_sector Moreover Russia supplies a large part of the oil consumed by European countries. This energy dominance is a big pain for United States, since it gives Russia political power over NATO members. Therefore the Americans wish to provide Europe with alternative sources of energy, and more specifically with alternative sources of natural gas, since natural gas is most of the time delivered through pipelines, and it creates a greater dependency on the part of the energy recipient than oil, which is normally transferred with ships. Most of Gazprom’s natural gas, approximately 80% of it, is distributed to Europe through Ukraine. At the following link you can read about the disputes between Russia and Ukraine over natural gas distribution. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_disputes That’s the reason the Americans are so keen to help anti-Russian and NATO friendly Ukrainians. The Russians on the other hand do not like this dependency on Ukraine, and have developed the Nord Stream pipeline which delivers Gazprom’s natural gas directly to Germany, through the Baltic Sea, thus bypassing Ukraine. You can see at the following BBC map the Nord Stream pipeline with Green color.
  • 30. Map 1 Source BBC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14803065) Russia wants to also develop another pipeline, the South Stream, which you can see with the blue color on the map, which will again bypass Ukraine and will deliver Gazprom’s natural gas to Southern Europe. When both these pipelines will be ready, the Russians will not depend anymore on Ukraine to supply the whole Europe with Russian natural gas. As you can see the South Stream will cross the Black Sea, and from Bulgaria will distribute natural gas to Southern Europe. To develop the South Stream pipeline, Russia needs the help of Bulgaria, and also the help of Turkey, since the Exclusive Economic Zones of both Bulgaria and Turkey are involved. One but not the only reason there was so much noise about Crimea was because of Crimea’s effect on the Ukraine and Russian Exclusive Economic Zones. Crimea is the piece of land under Ukraine on map 2
  • 31. Map 2 As you can see, if Ukraine controls Crimea, Ukraine would have a saying on the South Stream crossing the Black Sea, since it would fall inside Ukraine’s exclusive economic zone. But if Crimea belongs to Russia, Ukraine does not have a saying on the construction of the pipeline. And Russia annexed Crimea as we all know. And as you can see on map 3, from whowhatwhy.com, which is accurate, the Russians designed the pipeline nearer Turkey to totally avoid Ukraine. Map 3
  • 32. The Europeans are divided on the issue of the South Stream. As you can see at the following Reuters’ link, http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/17/us-ukraine-crisis-gas-southstream-analys-idUSBREA3G1KP20140417 some countries perceive it as a positive development i.e. Germany, Italy, Bulgaria. The important point to note is that once the South Stream is ready, together with the Nord Stream, will allow Gazprom to supply with natural gas the whole European Continent without relying on the Ukrainian pipeline network. Moreover, as you can see on the following Wikipedia link, Ukraine is the 26th richest country in the world in terms of natural gas reserves, which further enhances its geostrategic importance. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_in_Ukraine As I already said, the Americans and the Europeans want to have many sources of natural gas, in order to limit the economic but mainly the diplomatic influence that Russia enjoys over NATO members, and which arises by the 30% of Gazprom’s share in the European market. It also has to do with competition issues. The more energy options a country has the cheaper it buys its energy. The Americans and the Europeans want to bring natural gas from the energy rich Caspian Sea to Europe. The Nabucco Pipeline and the Pans Adriatic Pipeline are two of the possible routes. The Nabucco pipeline which you can see with red color on map 1 will bring Caspian natural gas to Europe through Turkey. The other possible pipeline, the Trans Adriatic Pipeline TAP, which you can see on map 4 below, will again bring natural gas from Caspian Sea to Europe through Turkey.
  • 33. Map 4 It is clear how important Turkey is for the Americans and Europeans, since both the Nabucco and the TAP pipelines will have to pass through its territories to deliver Caspian natural gas to European markets. And I am not talking for the obvious economic benefits. I am talking about Turkey’s increased geopolitical power. It is very important for the Americans and Europeans to have Turkey on their side, so if they decide to take sanctions against Russia and there is a disturbance in natural gas supply, Turkey will not cut off supplies from the Caspian Sea too to support Russia. Currently it is very painful for the Americans and the Europeans to take sanctions against Russia, since Gazprom provides a large share of the natural gas consumed in the European markets Iran’s is also very important for the Americans and the Europeans. Iran is situated on the Caspian Sea and it will be very difficult for the Americans to ensure stable natural gas supply to Europe if they face a hostile Iran. Moreover Iran is a very energy rich country, one of the richest ones in fact, and its natural gas could be transferred to Europe too. The Nabucco and TAP pipelines are supposed to transfer natural gas from NATO friendly Azerbaijan, but other countries can be connected on the pipeline network too. Therefore both Iran and Turkey are extremely important for the American and European efforts to provide Europe with abundant non Russian natural gas. The increase in Turkey’s and Iran’s geopolitical power poses a lethal threat to Israel. You have to keep in mind that Turkey and Iran are two of Israel’s lethal enemies. Iran’s goal is to eliminate
  • 34. Israel, and Turkey, an ex Israel ally, does not seem to be further away from this view, under the leadership of Recep Erdogan. Actually everybody knows that it is mainly Iran, Turkey and Qatar that support and provide funding to Hamas, which is recognized by U.S.A., the E.E., Japan and other countries as a terrorist organization. Hamas runs the Gaza Strip, and came to power with elections in Gaza. It is Hamas that fires all these rockets that you hear about from Gaza to Israel. At the following article you can read about the funding of Hamas. http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/para/hamas-funds.htm In this changing geopolitical map, Israel does not seem to be able to count on United States for its survival, as it has for so many years done. This has already caused a deterioration in the American-Israeli relations, and an improvement in the Russian-Israeli relations. You have to keep in mind that rich natural gas fields were also found in the Mediterranean See, in the region between Greece, Cyprus,Turkey and Israel. This could be also an energy alternative for Europe as you can see on map 6 Map 6
  • 35. The problem is that it is very difficult and very costly to build a pipeline network through the Mediterranean See if Turkey is involved in the project. But with the current political situation between Turkey and Israel this does not seem to be feasible, at least not for Israel’s part of energy. The natural gas found in the Israeli sea, might be the only chip for survival that Israel has in this energy hungry world. It seems that Israel is giving Russia a role in its energy wealth. At the following Bloomberg link you can see the cooperation between Gazprom and the Israelis. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-26/gazprom-holds-talks-to-export-all-lng-from-israeli- tamar-project.html It seems that in a world where Israelis cannot count on the protection of the Americans, they are moving towards Russia. They are not connected to Russia in the same way they were connected to the U.S.A., but it seems they are somewhere between these two countries. At the following Financial Times link, you can see that Israel did not vote against Russia in the U.N. resolution about Ukraine. It rather preferred to abstain. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a51509b2-c665-11e3-ba0e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz39QhkKtrJ The FT examines the causes for this behavior and at the end of the article say: “But the strongest motivation for Israel to stay out of the Ukraine fracas lies in the present day and closer to home: Russia is a strong and growing power in the Middle East. Israel needs to engage Moscow on several vital issues: Iran’s nuclear programme and the dismantlement of Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile. Moscow is the biggest foreign patron of Bashar al-Assad’s Syria and a major supplier of arms to the Middle East in general. Behind closed doors, Israel has prevailed on Russia to refrain from supplying game-changing weapons to Syria that could land in the hands of Hizbollah, its best-armed regional enemy.” Moreover as you can see at the following Wikipedia link, Avigdor Lieberman, the Israeli Foreign Affairs Minister, is a Russian Jew. He was born in Russia, served in the Russian Army, and later
  • 36. immigrated to Israel with his family. It is “strange” that the Israelis chose a Russian soldier as their Minister of Foreign Affairs. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avigdor_Lieberman Some people are confused because the U.S. is still giving Israel some financial aid. For example they recently offered Israel 200 million dollars in terms of financial aid. But Israel was receiving approximately 3 billion dollars a year in American aid some years ago. This 200 million dollars, is some of the last money Israel is receiving from United States as you can read at the following article http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steven-strauss/us-aid-israel_b_4251742.html For Israel there is another big problem, namely the pipelines that will transfer natural gas from the Persian Gulf to European markets, and more specifically the pipelines that will transfer natural gas from the Persian Gulf’s South Pars/North Dome field. South Pars/North Dome is the richest natural gas filed in the world and it lies between Qatar and Iran. It is jointly owned by Qatar and Iran. You can see it on map 7. Map 7
  • 37. These pipelines are the real cause of the current war in Iraq and Syria. Muslims are divided in Sunis and Shias. And the Shias want to transfer the natural gas through the route Iran-Iraq-Syria- Lebanon-Mediterranean Sea- Europe and the Sunis through the route Qatar-Saudi Arabia-Jordan- Syria-Turkey-Europe. You can see both the Suni (purple color) and Shia (red color) pipelines at the following map Map 8 Sunis and Shias are currently fighting in Syria and Iraq. As you can see on map 9, if Sunis win Syria and Iraq, Shias cannot go ahead with their pipeline. The only other route to reach Europe would be through Turkey. But Turkey is on the Suni side. The problem for Israel is that Americans are supporting the Sunis in this conflict. Americans are very good friends with Qatar, one of the owners of South Pars/ North Dome. The Russians support the Shia pipeline i.e. Iran. It is known that Qatar is one of the countries that heavily fund Hamas, which is the terrorist organization that throws rockets from Gaza to Israel, and it is officially recognized by U.S.A. and Europe as a terrorist organization. Therefore Israel cannot count on the Americans at least for as long as they back their lethal enemies. On the other hand, Iran is with Russia on this fight, and
  • 38. together they support Assad in Syria. But Iran is also funding Hamas. But it is in direct competition with Qatar on this pipeline fight. But it is Iran’s nuclear program that is the lethal threat to Israelis. And it is the Russians that control the nuclear program of the Iranians. And the Americans do not seem very interested in preventing Iran from developing its nuclear arsenal. As you can see on the fourth paragraph of the following Wikipedia link, it is the Russians that developed the first nuclear factory in Iran. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran And as you can see on the following Reuters link, the Russians will develop another 8 nuclear reactors in Iran. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/05/22/iran-nuclear-russia-idUKL6N0O83KX20140522 And it is the Russians that provide weapons to Syrians one of Israel’s oldest foe. If you also take into account that Obama is a president who seems to have strong ties with the Muslim world but also with the Muslim Brotherhood, it should not be a big surprise that the Israelis have a Russian soldier as their Minister of Foreign Affairs. You should also have a look at this video about how U.S.A. indirectly helps Hamas. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WN_i0UKB3ZU&index=4&list=PL2bOp7h44zv65ap- PbglPHKSLSdHAAjQM You should also do some research on the relations of the U.S.A. and Qatar, and on the relation of Qatar, Iran and Turkey with Hamas. It will help you understand the current geopolitical situation.
  • 39. Map 9 It seems that the 21st century will a tough one for Israel.
  • 40. I have written a lot in my previous essays about the Baku-Ceyhan and the Baku-Supsa pipelines (white lines on the map), as the only American success in the Caspian Sea region, a region which is controlled by the Russians and the Iranians. With the help of the only NATO friendly country of the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, the Americans managed to construct a pipeline that bypassed both Iran and Russia, using the energy corridor Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey, transferring Caspian energy to the Mediterranean Sea (Ceyhan) and to the Black Sea (Supsa). They did so, in order to provide the European markets with an alternative to the Russian energy, thus decreasing the Russian influence over Europe, hoping that eventually they would manage to influence some of the other corrupted dictators of the Caspian countries too, who are currently under Russian influence, since Azerbaijan’s energy reserves are clearly inadequate to compete with the Russian ones. At the following tables you can see the Caspian region reserves by country.
  • 41. As you can see at the above table, the Americans and the Europeans need the oil rich Kazakhstan in order to fill their oil pipelines, and they need the natural gas rich Turkmenistan in order to fill their future natural gas pipelines, if they finally develop a natural gas pipeline network. Alternatively they can take Iran on their side, since Iran is twice as rich as Russia in terms of oil, and its natural gas reserves amount to 2/3 of the Russian ones, and therefore Iran can clearly compete with Russia.
  • 42. The Ceyhan-Haifa Pipeline Moreover they planned to construct a new underwater four leg pipeline from Ceyhan to Haifa, which would carry crude oil, natural gas, electricity and water from Turkey to Israel, which would distribute it in the whole region, but also to the port of Eilat and then to South Asia, again bypassing Iran (red line on the map). You can read about the Ceyhan-Haifa pipeline at the above European Commission link, pages 10 and 11, tables 3.2.3 and 3.2.7, or you can see it visually at the following map. http://ec.europa.eu/energy/observatory/doc/country/2009_12_turkey.pdf Source: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.gr/2012/04/complexity-of-eastern-med-energy-games.html Also note that the rich in oil Kirkuk in North Iraq (Iraqi Kurdistan), is also connected to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, with the pipeline Kirkuk-Ceyhan (yellow line on the map). Therefore the underwater Ceyhan-Haifa connection would actually be a connection of Baku and Kirkuk with the Israeli port of Eilat in the Red Sea, and finally to South Asia (Pakistan, India, China) bypassing Iran. After describing the Ceyhan pipelines and before turning to the Israel-Lebanon War of 2006, I must also say a few words about the economic and geopolitical implications of these pipelines.
  • 43. An obvious consequence of the Baku-Ceyhan, Baku-Supsa pipelines was that the Russians were very angry, since the Americans and the Europeans could compete with them in Europe if they finally manage to reach countries rich in oil and natural gas. Another consequence was that Iran was even angrier than Russia, since the Baku-Eilat pipeline would transfer Caspian energy to South East Asia bypassing Iran. As you can see on the map, the shortest way to provide Caspian Energy to South Asia is through Iran. However with the Baku-Ceyhan and the Ceyhan-Haifa-Eilat pipelines, another financially viable route was created, in order to provide Caspian energy to South Asia bypassing Iran, since for most of the distance (Baku-Eilat) only pipelines would be used, which is a very efficient way of transferring energy, and tankers would only be used from the port of Eilat. This was of course very bad for Iran’s exports, but also for its geopolitical significance. I have said many times in the past how important it is for Iran to construct a pipeline network that would connect it to Pakistan, India and finally China (black line on the map), since it would make Iran much more competitive than Saudi Arabia, its main competitor in oil markets, and Qatar, its main competitor in natural gas markets, since as you can see on the map, Saudi Arabia and Qatar cannot be connected to South Asia with a pipeline network. Geographically it is only possible for Iran to do so. For a detailed description on the war against Iran, in order to prevent it from connecting itself through pipelines to Pakistan, India and China, see my previous essays. Therefore the Saudis and the Qataris do not want a pipeline connection between Iran, Pakistan, India and China, since it would make Iran more competitive in these markets which are currently dominated by the Saudis in oil sales and by the Qataris in natural gas sales. Moreover the Americans do not want this to happens, since it would connect China to the Persian Gulf, and it would enable China to obtain Persian Gulf energy bypassing the Indian Ocean which is dominated by the American Navy, which makes it possible for the Americans to ‘unplug’ China very easily in the case of a war. China partially fixed this weakness with the 400 billion dollar mammoth deal with Russia, according to which Russia will supply China with natural gas for the next 30 years. The Indians, who are a key connection between Iran and China, do not want to be so heavily dependent for their energy imports on the politically unstable Persian Gulf, since there is always the possibility of a ‘hot’ war, which would prevent access to the Persian Gulf and to energy supplies. They have therefore been constantly looking for the past years for a competitive alternative to the Persian Gulf energy supply. Moreover having access to many energy sources is not only good in terms of energy security, but it also ensures better energy prices.
  • 44. For Indians the Iran-Pakistan-India-China pipeline was one of the Persian Gulf alternatives, since even if access to the Persian Gulf by sea was prevented due to a war, supply could continue through the pipelines, and they have therefore many times in the past tried to promote this project, without however so far being successful. On the other hand this pipeline would pass through Pakistan, India’s main enemy, and it had its own weakness in terms of energy security. Therefore the Baku-Eilat connection would offer India an alternative to the Persian Gulf, which would have nothing to do with Pakistan. The following Asia Times article calls the Ceyhan-Eilat pipeline a ‘lifeline’ for India, since it is an alternative to the Persian Gulf and at the same time it is a source of energy independent from Pakistan. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/JB27Df03.html You can also read about how important the Ceyhan-Eilat pipeline would be for India in the following Times of India article. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Turkey-offers-alternative-to-Iran-pipeline/ articleshow/2770237.cms This is one more article on the subject from Pakistan Defence, but you can find many other articles if you simply google ‘Ceyhan-Haifa Pipeline and India’ or something similar. http://defence.pk/threads/turkey-offers-alternative-to-iran-pipeline.9754/ Therefore the Baku-Eilat pipeline would not only bypass Iran, but it would reduce the pressure on the part of the South Asian countries for promoting the badly needed for Iran project of the Iran-Pakistan-India-China pipeline. Could it be worse for Iran? That’s why Saudi Arabia and
  • 45. Qatar did not object to the Ceyhan-Eilat connection, because they realize that if the South Asian countries do not have an alternative to the Persian Gulf, they will press harder for a land connection with Iran. The Saudis and the Qataris can compete with oil and natural gas flowing from Eilat to South Asia, but they cannot compete with oil and natural gas flowing from Iran to South Asia through pipelines. After this large introduction I can finally turn to the Israel-Lebanon War of 2006.
  • 46. The Israel-Lebanon War of 2006 As you can read at section ‘Inauguration’ of the following Wikipedia link, the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, it was inaugurated at its Ceyhan terminal on 13.7.2006. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku%E2%80%93Tbilisi %E2%80%93Ceyhan_pipeline#Inauguration As you can read at the following Wikipedia link on 12.7.2006, one day before the Ceyhan inauguration, Hezbollah terrorists attacked the Israelis starting the 2006 Israel-Lebanon War. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Lebanon_War More specifically, the second paragraph of the above link says: ‘The conflict was precipitated by the Zar'it-Shtula incident. On 12 July 2006, militants from the group Hezbollah fired rockets at Israeli border towns as a diversion for an anti-tank missile attack on two armored Humveespatrolling the Israeli side of the border fence. The ambush left three soldiers dead. Two Israeli soldiers were abducted and taken by Hezbollah to Lebanon. Five more were killed in Lebanon, in a failed rescue attempt. Hezbollah demanded the release of Lebanese prisoners held by Israel in exchange for the release of the abducted soldiers. Israel refused and responded with airstrikes and artillery fire on targets in Lebanon. Israel attacked both Hezbollah military targets and Lebanese civilian infrastructure, including Beirut's Rafic Hariri International Airport. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon. Israel also imposed an air and naval blockade. Hezbollah then launched more rockets into northern Israel and engaged the IDF in guerrilla warfare from hardened position’ Moreover at the end of the first paragraph of the above link you can read the following: ‘Due to unprecedented Iranian military support to Hezbollah before and during the war, some consider it the first round of the Iran–Israel proxy conflict, rather than a continuation of the Arab- Israeli conflict.’ In section ‘Contacts with Hezbollah’ of the following Wikipedia link, you can read the following: ‘Russian intelligence agencies have a history of contacts with Lebanese Shia organizations, such as Amal Movement and Hezbollah Russian-made anti-tank weapons played significant role in Hezbollah operations against Israel Defense Forces during 2006 Israel-Lebanon conflict. It was claimed that "Russian Fajr-1 and Fajr-3 rockets, Russian AT-5 Spandrel antitank missiles and Kornet antitank rockets"have been supplied to Hezbollah through Syria and Iran Muslim
  • 47. GRUdetachments from Chechnya were transferred to Lebanon independently of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon to guard the Russian military engineers (sent to Lebanon to restore the damaged roads) and "to improve Moscow’s image in the Arab and Muslim world.’ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_and_the_Iran %E2%80%93Israel_proxy_conflict#Contacts_with_Hezbollah In section ‘Arab League’ of the following Wikipedia link you can read: ‘The Arab League has called Hezbollah's attacks on Israel "unexpected, inappropriate, and irresponsible acts," in the words of Saudi Arabia's foreign minister, PrinceSaud Al-Faisal. The Arab League says they have “fears of widening of tension and possible Israeli strike against Syria,“ “It’s up to the resistance — both the Lebanese and the Palestinian — to decide what they are doing and why are they fighting. Following a meeting of Arab League foreign ministers in Cairo on 16 July, Secretary-General Amr Moussa declared that "The Middle East process is dead" and that "The only way to revive the peace process is to take it back to the Security Council’. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_2006_Lebanon_War#.C2.A0Arab_L eague At section United States of the following Wikipedial link you can read: ‘Following the Zar'it-Shtula incident, the United States government condemned what it called Hezbollah's "unprovoked act of terrorism", and called for the "immediate and unconditional release" of the soldiers. The United States rushed a delivery of satellite and laser-guided bombs to Israel, at Israel's request. The shipment was not publicly announced. In addition, the United States has thus far rejected what it considers to be meaningless calls for a cease-fire . "The Bush administration has openly rejected calls for a ceasefire. The New York Times reports that U.S. and Israeli officials have agreed the bombings will continue for another week. "On Tuesday [18 July 2006] Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice rejected an immediate ceasefire and said one could only occur once certain conditions are met.’ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_2006_Lebanon_War#.C2.A0United_ States At section Iran of the following Wikipedia link you can read:
  • 48. ‘Foreign ministry spokesman Hamid-Reza Asefi condemned Israel's response stating, "The Zionist regime is desperate because of the resistance put up by regional Muslim nations and is now resorting to blind tactics against the innocent people of Lebanon with full US backing."[27] Iran also adds that an Israeli attack against Syriawould be considered an attack against the entire Muslim world and it would bring about a "fierce response."[28] Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, quoted by the Iranian News Agency, said "The Zionists think that they are victims of Hitler, but they act like Hitler and behave worse than Genghis Khan.’ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_2006_Lebanon_War#.C2.A0Iran At section Iraq of the following Wikipedia link you will read that Iraq condemned the Israelis. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_2006_Lebanon_War#.C2.A0Iraq Even though the pipelines were good for Iraq, since Iraq could export its oil to South Asia bypassing Iran, Iraq condemned Israel. The reason is that after the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, an Iraq had a Shiite governemnt, and even though it was pro-American, it was very closely cooperating with the Shiites of Iran, and Iraq did not feel that there was any need to bypass its ally. At section Russia of the following Wikipedia link you will read that Russia condemned the Israelis. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_2006_Lebanon_War#.C2.A0Russia However for the Russians things were more complicated than the Iranians, because the Russians were of course against the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, but I do not think that they were against the Ceyhan-Haifa four leg pipeline, since Russia and Turkey are very well connect with pipeline networks, because Russia is the main natural gas supplier of Turkey, and Russia could use the Ceyhan-Haifa pipeline to sell its own natural gas. There is already the Blue Stream natural gas pipeline that connects Russia and Turkey under the Black Sea, and they are planning the construction of the Blue Stream 2 pipeline, that would connect Samsun to Ceyhan as you can see on the following 2 maps.
  • 50. Therefore the Russians could sell to the whole region their natural gas through the route Samsun- Ceyhan and Ceyhan-Haifa. However this is back in 2006, and the problems in the American- Israeli relations are not present yet nor is the Israel-Russia rapprochement, and therefore the Russians have to support their traditional allies i.e. Syria, Iran and Lebanon. It is therefore quite simple to explain the Middle East wars if you look at the oil and natural gas that is always hidden in the background of these wars. However the Israelis have some problems of their own with Lebanon, since their natural gas supplies are near the Israeli-Lebanese borders, and the Lebanese claim that a part of these natural gas reserves belong to them as you can see at the following two maps. Source: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/07/120703-israel-new-natural-gas/
  • 51. Source: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139069/yuri-m-zhukov/trouble-in-the-eastern-mediterranean- sea Therefore the Israelis and the Lebanese, besides all the disputes I have mentioned so far, have the natural gas disputes too. However it is mainly Iran that owns Hezbollah, since it is Iran that provides for Hezbollah funding and weapons, and it is on Iran’s orders that Hezbollah acts. Iran has done with Hezbollah, what Qatar has done in Gaza with Hamas. Qatar owns Hamas. It provides its funding and weapons and through this funding Hamas managed to provide financial support to the people of Gaza and won the elections in 2006, and did not conduct other elections since that time. Therefore in the same way that Iran bought Hezbollah at the northern border of Israel, Qatar bought Hamas at the Southern borders of Israel (Gaza). For the relationship between Qatar and Hamas and Iran and Hezbollah you can simply google ‘Qatar Hamas’ and ‘Iran Hezbollah’ to find hundreds of articles. The main dispute between Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah is natural gas. Israel is trying to provide an alternative source of natural gas to Europe, either through Cyprus and Greece or by liquefying its natural gas and exporting it with ships. Iran and Qatar are the 2nd and 3rd richest countries in the world in terms of natural gas reserves, and Israel is closer to Europe and would provide a
  • 52. cheaper alternative even though it has far less reserves, and why not in Africa too. Recently I wrote an essay about the 15 billion dollar natural gas agreement between Israel and Jordan. Therefore even though the Shiite Muslims of Iran and the Sunni Muslims of Qatar are the 2nd and 3rd richest countries in the world in natural gas reserves, and therefore hate each other as we can see with the war in Syria and Iraq now, they both do not want Israel to provide an alternative to the natural gas markets of Europe and Africa, with the help of other Mediterranean countries too, like Egypt, Greece and Cyprus. This is the reason Qatar is pushing so hard for the Muslim Brotherhood to come back to power in Egypt, since the Brotherhood is under its influence. With the Muslim Brotherhood in power Qatar could ensure that Egypt would not undercut its prices. Therefore in the same way that Iran bought Hezbollah at the Israeli-Lebanese borders (black circle in the following map), Qatar bought Hams in Gaza (blue circle), and in the same way the Sunni Muslim terrorists of Hamas take orders from Qatar and Turkey, the Shiite Muslim terrorists of Hezbollah take orders from Iran. Therefore Qatar and Iran can use Hamas and Hezbollah to launce energy wars on Israel whenever they want. As you can read at the following article, Hamas and Hezbollah had very good relations, until the great war between the Sunni Muslims of Saudi Arabia and Qatar and the Shiite Muslims of Iran and Iran broke out, as I was saying in my essay ‘The Energy War Between U.S.A. and Russia’. http://www.wilsoncenter.org/islamists/article/the-marriage-and-divorce-hamas-and-hezbollah
  • 53. Source: http://www.nektarinanonprofit.com/2012/03/israel.html Therefore it can be seen that the Israel-Lebanon War of 2006 was another hot energy war, in the sequence of the hot and cold energy wars taking place in the Middle East for the last one hundred years. Any analysis about the wars in the Middle East that is not based on oil and natural gas is always totally inadequate. The following Financial Times article of 21st Mai 2014, reported that Israel was very close to signing agreements with Egypt and Jordan for exporting Israeli natural gas to these countries, from Leviathan, Israel's largest natural gas field. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/02ea38aa-e0e2-11e3-a934-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl At the following article of Haaretz, which is as you can see at the following Wikipedia link, Israel’s oldest newspaper, and its English version is published with the New York Times, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haaretz
  • 54. it was reported on 30 June 2014 that Israel did finally sign an agreement to export to Egypt 30 billion dollars of natural gas in the next 15 years. That is 2 billion dollars of natural gas each year, and it amounts to 20% of Leviathan’s capacity. http://www.haaretz.com/business/.premium-1.601980 At the following article of the Times of Israel, an electronic newspaper that is published in 3 languages, it was reported on 3 September 2014, that Israel did finally sign an agreement to export to Jordan 15 billion dollars of natural gas in the next 15 years. http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-signs-15-billion-gas-deal-with-jordan/ What happened in the time between the Financial Times article on 21 Mai 2014, which reported that Israel was close to signing the agreements and the Haaretz article on 30 June, which reported the actual 30 billion dollar agreement between Egypt and Israel? Well what happened is that the 3 Israeli teenagers were abducted by Hamas on 12 June 2014, as you can read at the first line of the following Wikipedia link, in section “Immediate Events”. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Israel%E2%80%93Gaza_conflict#Immediate_events At the first paragraph of the following Wikipedia link, you can read that on 7 July 2014, one week after the agreement between Israel and Egypt, Hamas took responsibility for the teenagers’ abductions and at the same time it launched 40 rockets to Israel. One day later, on the 8 July 2014, the Israeli army entered Gaza. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Israel%E2%80%93Gaza_conflict It is well known that Hamas is funded by Qatar. Hamas won the elections in 2006 by providing financial help to the people of Gaza. In a sense Qatar bought a military camp at the Israeli borders. Qatar is the 3rd richest country in the world in terms of proven natural gas reserves, after Russia and Iran, and could have easlily provided the natural gas to Egypt and Jordan instead. One of the main reasons that Qatar funded and wholeheartedly supported the Muslim Brootherhood candidate in Egypt, Muhammad Morsi, is that if Morsi was in power he would have never made a deal with Israel, since the Muslim Brotherhood is supported by Qatar. At the following Wikipedia link, section ‘Aftermath’, 2-3 lines before the end of the section, where the consequences of the Arab Spring on the Egypt-Israel 1978 Peace Agreement are examined, you can read that the deputy chief of the Muslim Brotherhood said that the Brotherhood does not recognize Israel’s right to exist.
  • 55. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt%E2%80%93Israel_Peace_Treaty#Aftermath At the following BBC article you can read how much Qatar supported the Muslim Brotherhood and its candidate Morsi. In the 6th and 7th paragraph you can read that Qatar did not give all that money for nothing, but instead to make sure that Egypt would buy natural gas from Qatar. I copy these two paragraphs. “....But this was not a charitable giveaway. It was in the nature of an investment. A Qatari economist told the BBC: "We couldn't stand by and let Egypt collapse", but the billions came with an expectation - "I'll give you the money, show me the outcome," he said. The Qataris had already secured a lucrative deal to sell their gas to the Egyptians and they were proposing to heavily invest in the redevelopment of the Suez Canal...”. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-23185441 Many socialists that are financed by Qatar say that the Brotherhood was democratically elected. As you can read in the 3rd paragraph of the following Wikipedia link, as soon as he was elected, Morsi started changing the law to rule as a dictator. I copy from the link. “…As president, Morsi granted himself unlimited powers and the power to legislate without judicial oversight or review of his acts….” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_Morsi Moreover you can read at the following Haaretz article that the Israelis have agreed to sell to the Palestinian Authority in West Bank 1.2 billion dollar in natural gas. But this is a small amount compared to the 45 billion dollar deals with Egypt and Jordan, and Qatar would have not probably minded. As you can see the deal was singed in January 2014 and there was no war in Gaza. It was before the agreements with Egypt and Jordan that the war broke out. Nobody starts a war for 1.2 billion dollars. http://www.haaretz.com/business/1.567216