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Agile Planning Training Part 1 of 3

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This presentation outlines the problems with planning.. and the dangers of waterfall planning.
It introduces the basic reasoning for Agile Planning such as Scrum or Kanban

Published in: Engineering, Technology, Business
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Agile Planning Training Part 1 of 3

  1. 1. Agile Planning Training Part 1/3 By Harlan Beverly 6/17/2014 1© 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly
  2. 2. Projects Fail BEFORE Launch • 37%? • 90%? • In my experience, it is between 50- 75% fail BEFORE LAUNCH! – Never launch! 6/17/2014 © 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly 2
  3. 3. Goals of Companies 1. Generate Profits 1. Generate Revenue 2. Reduce Costs 3. Reduce Expenses (difference?) 1. Maximize Utilization (Effeciency) 2. Please Shareholders 1. Stock Price 2. Growth Potential 3. Ship “the right products” On-Time 4. Maximize ‘every product’s’ potential. 6/17/2014 © 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly 3
  4. 4. Conflicting Goals • Shipping On Time – Vs • Maximum Efficiency 6/17/2014 © 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly 4
  5. 5. Class Experiment • Paper Processing Plant – 1 person = folds each page as well. • Pass Papers in a line from one to another… keep passing! – Now Here comes a colored paper which is super urgent… how fast can we get the colored page done? 6/17/2014 © 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly 5
  6. 6. Another Experiment • Limit Work-in-Progress Inventory to 2… – Now how fast? • But aren’t people idle???? • Isn’t this bad? 6/17/2014 © 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly 6
  7. 7. The Lost Revenue Fallacy • If the pink paper were worth 1000x as much as a white paper… what is the effect on revenue. • What does this tell us about “maximizing efficiency”? 6/17/2014 © 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly 7
  8. 8. On-Time Projects vs. Late Projects • Costs of Late: – Overages on budget. – Lateness of later products. – Loss of Revenue during time when product could have been out to when it actually launches. • Permanent loss? – Perhaps too late, and missed window (canceled order/lost to competitor) 6/17/2014 © 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly 8
  9. 9. Padding Fallacy • Why not “ensure” that every project is never late? – Simply add a huge padding to the end!!! – Or???? • What about “right sized” padding? – Murphy? • Student Syndrome 6/17/2014 © 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly 9
  10. 10. Estimation Fallacy 6/17/2014 © 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly 10
  11. 11. Early Finish Fallacy • Delays Accumulate • Gains Don’t! – Notice, if task c finishes early… person e will: » Not necessarily hear about it and realize he can store » Feel he has even more time now (student syndrome) » Still be busy with some other project! 6/17/2014 © 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly 11
  12. 12. Multitasking Fallacy • Priority issues? • Switching Costs – Penalty for ‘forgetting’ where you were – Cost of something changed since you were gone…. – Cost of changes, because you didn’t finish yet! • Total ‘actual time’, ignoring those issues… • See Joel on Software: – http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/fog0000000022.html 6/17/2014 © 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly 12
  13. 13. Parkinson’s Law • “work expands to fill the allocated time.” • No Early Finish Bonus! • Strong Disincentives for Early Finish: – Lowered estimates later – Lower pay – More work to be done… than if they had “dogged it”… – BUT MURPHY COULD STILL STRIKE AFTER THEY FINALLY START (since they dog early!) 6/17/2014 © 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly 13
  14. 14. Changes & Feature/Scope Creep • The longer a project ‘isn’t done’ the more chance of ‘changes’ and feature/scope creep. – Changes = wasted time – Feature creep = expanding requirements 6/17/2014 © 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly 14
  15. 15. Unclear Requirements / Definition-of-Done • Beginning without knowing exactly what is required = never being done. • Not defining done = never being done. • Not being done = not finishing on time! • SIMPLE LOGIC! 6/17/2014 © 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly 15
  16. 16. Traditional Project Planning: Waterfall Method • Has a Tendency to be 100%+ Late, and 100%+ Over-budget. – Fall off the edge of a cliff. 6/17/2014 © 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly 16
  17. 17. Critical Path 6/17/2014 © 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly 17 • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Critical_path_method • Simply calculate the path of dependencies with the longest total time duration.
  18. 18. Gantt Chart (aka network diagram) • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gantt_chart • Basically, this is the output of MS Project. • Gantt charts illustrate the start and finish dates of the terminal elements and summary elements of a project. Terminal elements and summary elements comprise thework breakdown structure of the project. Some Gantt charts also show the dependency (i.e. precedence network) relationships between activities. Gantt charts can be used to show current schedule status using percent-complete shadings and a vertical "TODAY" line. (Although this is usually BULLSHIT!) 6/17/2014 © 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly 18
  19. 19. Microsoft Project/Gantt…. • Resources Considered? – Will those resources be available when you need them? • Buffer? Where? • Estimates at 50%? 90%? Where? • Days??? REALLY! ?? Why not Hours??? • “tracking progress”… really? – Cost of tracking? – Is it true/real? 6/17/2014 © 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly 19

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