3
- 1. !
&% " # $
( )* + , ' "
!"
!( 1 # !$ !
2 % &' !( # )+
* , $- . # ./$ # 0
<(. 9*. 5 " :; ( 6 #" 7 ( #8 ,
" 1# ! 5#3 4
2 $ $
# !# -
A $- . 5>? #" # $
@ *= 5 2 " ,
) (
</$ 7! $ ! 7=
. " ( !; 5# $ B ( ? !C
D
/ *6: ; ! JH )
2 I+ G EF
" " # .( " !" 3"
<($ ! #" # * K 1# !
2 $ , ! 7 = #" < -
(
1 # !$
2 # .( ( ; (3
6 ! " #+ L5 #" !M 7=
(
5/*6 /$ ? 3" 1 # !$
2 ,N 0 # " # .(( ? EH/$ # *
= <
/?6 " EH 5OB0 .#P /$ 7- P
* ( " + F ! #. Q"
"
</- (
5 7 * #"
!5 E R6
+ " & 6(
- ! 5 H #./$
P/E 5/;
3 " A " # " U" L 5 : ;
Q + / ? #" S "! T "
6
#" V5 7 - L 5 /35 7 " Q" 3 P/E
" 5/; #. ! =
3 . < (
EF
" " :; + #" = </$ U W .Y @
X #. ! / ?
0 6
</$ 7 " X = !*. 1# !
2 $ #./$ ? #"
# ./$ EF
" " 5/*6(( B I # " Z+ T "
- 57 - 0
# . !8 ,V5 !6 $ ! # +
" " 7*
(= 1 # !$
2 ! [ **
" &
1 # !$
2 #$ , !" ,# . #P <( 3 5 *
5 5 " ?6 $- .
] " a !$ _` ` ^
` 7 EF
" 5/*6] #U BA
!d * #" 7
5 R0 0! H E$
b 7=
( c A ( = B ' <( 7!0
! * "
, " (7 " " . 5/*6] # " ($ B A ./ c
# 2
# * 7*
(= 1 # !$
2 7!2 H( 7! ]
< 0 a !$
Robert J. Shiller, Cowles Foundation for Research In Economics, YALE UNIVERSITY
- 2. N .!5 # . 5 ;- <# * 9# /$ 7 " = 7 - 9 EH
; ,! e
/3
< - f0! /$ 0*
# " /; # .
3 . </$ $B. : " = ! 5/*6: ; ! + ^ $
" 5
B I ,# P @ B I , 1# ! F - B I [
2 $ #" 5/*6B I
/ 5O# P , I B I !" I @ <(. (A * 5/*6 "
7 H Q" 7 " /
( # " /; EH "g
3 # -2
1 F Q" 5 " b!
" !" !4 /;
C 5 ! / T=" # ./ $5/ *6B I " * </$
5
5/ *6 </3 2 72 5 : ;
( L < - ?; I
d B " 5/ *6 Q"
(!
$" A U # " 5/*6B I # .
a ,(-" # - ? ( (
- " ( *
#" + ? " # ./ $P <($ 7 A"I 7 I
# ( @
<(
5 I "
; " T =" # - 2
C 1 / *6[ ! h # ./ $ :;Y (H + #" R
j 5 # - 2 5B I V . !
* 1 0 # * R - #"
0 #0 # ,/$ 7-
( 5[ i6
^ $! V 7!.
" "B A ( H !" # . *6# ./3
7 #! ; </ (
5 #
7!. "B A 5/*6,1 .
k !" ( ( ."
+ ,(. ! h ^ 6R
5/ *6[ ! h [(
5 # ./ $ l Y@ # 0" <V .
) HR
</$ 7! m =
. " / ? #" Z
@ + [ i6 - # - 2
1
( " ( 7!. 1# ! #
2 $ #. 1# ! #0 bP !
2 $ $
[ i6,# / (5 # j5 F
* /*6 ? ( H#. *
# ;< = b! V (
5 ; $ - .V
6 5 ! <(-" # - 5O &'-
<( . 7 c$ V5 *$ H 5 ( 5 "B A n
a !" $- .
Y #*5 # " S "! 5 !2 *
V& R [Q* 5/*6( 5 "
5O 5[ i6 ! 2 0- ( H
R ! ! # .( 7 $ <( 5O
aA " E
! [ i6( R ! " ( !2 7
( 7$ $$ [Q *
B H9 , !" <(5 !6 5O - 5 M " 7- 75
H ( ( 5/5 ;
-
q@ ! AEH ! 5 2 #.
p ! R -( # $
h - 57 -B
( H o !?
5 2p " !* #.
. 5O 5R - ! " EH
h ( I ^( , " 7- 7
" (
<( .!0 [Q* "> ? #" #0
@ ( ,( ! b /- / " U
" . X= ! !
- 3. ! 7 $ [Q * # 0 + #" b! </$ F I EF
" " T "
/$ # ; r I" : ; 9 #" ! "
- " ./ ? #.( "
@ - - * (!M !
2 "
!Q " !5 5/*6( ( " ! * , (A U ?@
<( " R6
- ;
!0 9
c ,!M 8 # 3 !
* +" 5! & 7$ 5 M " K '- [ ;
U
< !2 #* 8 $ #
! .#
f.! s 5! 9 : 8 8 1 # !$ # ./c
2 2 , ) d #"
.
! #" ( ( 7 H bE /*6[ ! h #" 7 (
( $ B", 5O 5[ i6
7( B " *= * ,f !
5 # " <( . b( !
6 * a A" (
5 ! *=
" !" NA .
# , !< -
" R(
; " qU$ 2I" ! #"
z { yuG &'
x - 1 # !$ z _vy_ ,( bP uvw ! . uv t
2 - x ; EF
"
J EF
" (! z { yvG
x E 1 # ! z _w J E F
2 $ " (!
;" # "
E " /? ( % '
@ - #. M5 H H .B$ A
# ! t A
$
# .( # c 7 *6 #+ R 6(
2( " " ( 7 /; t A
$ ,# (# - &' ( /$
<( 7 " *U
| H
F /*6b ( Q" A @ B I !" #. !M . $
7(
2 </ $ 12 ! $ ! " / *6B I #
# 2 / " 1+ , ! 6# +
/ $ 7 - EH + f ) T =" I 8 # 8 (
( # + * *? d # " b! ,
R = 9 ,# + !" # .( 7!.[ ; $
C <(5 q @ -+ (
# *
# + ,( #+ !M # . I 8 * # " b! # 0
5 H + = *+
#*5 !" /$ 7!.# "!P /*6B I ( # . * $ # . ( ;? N A (5
E P <
7!.f)
+ - + # .( .
# (! * $ (5
E q + b! <( " # + f +
! -
</$ V$ *
E 5 h EH 0
! 8 /$
<(. f)
+ $ #" b! #+ !* /$ # -( /*6B I
. " (8 #. * $
E
# .(5 /$ 7- bP
( 1 # !$
2 !" # . [ ?U
7 "(8 B I (. R* &'
= - 1 # !$ (
2 /$ I E 1# !
2 $
</$ #+ f + EH ! F
" ! /*6
"
- 4. [ i6!" # - 2
1 F / *67 " ( 8 B I - T =" # . !M R
- # - 2 5/
1 # ./ $ 3 #"
c *= ^ 3 , 1 " !C
M D 1 # !$
2
9 / <( . P 12 !$
# F # 2 !" 12 !$
#
!" f $ 5/ ? VE
6 5[ E H $ # " T ="
/ 12 ! $
#
6" ( 7 H + # " : ; /$
( .< - H 7 c$ M M8 1 # !$
2
<( . " 5# ! ( H bP
$ 5 " o! #" b! #* <( *
d 5 "
! 7 H " ( " 1 # !$ I [( ()
( # 2 " 1 # ! 9 bP
2 $ ! !2 *
" V&
Q #8 E & 6
+ "(
5 ( -7 H
5 ( ! h #8 #? + #0 #" ( ("
# A" E 5B $ A 2
! !# # " Z+ [ i6 ! 2 P </ - (5
# B A
#3" 7 jA ( R = # " 5 ! 2 * # 2
( ? V& </3 !1 0
A )) 5 (
I H
/ !1!C ( q
A D " [ i69 bP V !
5 d * # " /$
5
t V V
5 * 9 L5 </$ 0 !k !
* M 5 1# !
2 $ "
V5 # ! 1# !
2 $ $- . <^ &6 ( $ $V
* 5 V-"
!0; 12 !$ #
# 9 ( * # .( 35 2 2 5 .b 2 $ ( H
!! 6
<( . 7 V /$
M 5 W*
Q ? (-" /. ( . k
! H
?; E # ,
d &' [ i6 + # " # ? + o ? # ( " % '- R = ;
- * U
EH 6# ./ $ I 8 * /$
5 1 # !$
2 5# 3 4
$ # 0" / $
)
c #" " , 12 - (A k #. $ 5(
B H 5#3 4 # 2
$ </$ # $
7- : 3
( 5# 1 # !$
2 ( ? / = # " b) , ! F
I =
0" [ ( ,R*
6 = ( .7M !M /$ #" ( " #. ? #" <( 7 " # ! 7 H
M(
.# 8 W 6 # . !.% ' EH !" * #./$P R0 </$ 7- f) EH
( $
/" C 5( H !" # .(- # 5# 3 4
$ # " B A $ 7 (8 <( 0 ( ;
"
</$ !M7 H
( ( ? #" # !M ! (. 1# !
2 $
# 0"
) = 1 # !$
2 E # ,o ? # ( 9 P I 5 ! 5# $
2
; 5 ! 5# $ <( .
2 c $3 B 1# ! $ - .
2 $
!" ( - ; (" ( .
P ? } o ? # (9 (5 b!
g I29 <(5 " !#
A $ # ( * # " ( - 7 * b! "
5 !5 " ~c
- 5. !M 5# $ - $ ! b!
+ ( -# - : ! •
2 !;
< IM ! ! ( " /" 6 #" #
" M0 *5 I
5 ! [
2 #" # ! 1 # !$ -
2 T=" #. )Q 0 ,!M $
/ ? (5
6 * # ./$ ( .7M ! ( /$ # " B " V ( .R =
M 0 . *
<( .~c ! "
M M5 * ( R ! " (5( /$
5 " 7!2
[ cT " /$ 7- €!U 20- 7
( M $ 0 l$ #. ! # !
M
d#" H * I # ./$ 6c 93 ,^ $ ! </$ ? ( ! 93
" 6
/$ "B A " 6 k # ./$
R ! ? (!
6 /$ ! 2 ( R" 6 % '
7 R.
< ^( ( " H * I
H .(!M V* ( " 5
# " & $ # ./$ # 2#" EF
" " ./ ?6
/35 ; R" 6
6 EF
" !" 1# ! V " Q"
2 $ 5 3 P/E
" 5/;
3 + "
( !2 *
V& <( 7 #
( $ !2 *
V& ! 5
" $ <!
+ ) 5# 3 4 / ?
$ @ [ ! h !7 5/ ! A "
#0-
; 7 c$ / * #)+
5 * , 5#3 4 # - 2[ ! h
$ 1 5 H " E #3
N .L 5 # ./ $ R ;
6 # -2
1 c 7 c$ / * R"
) 5
1 # !$ 7 * # ./$
2 5 P V #0
E <( t A5B$ A
5 $ ! #" ( *
! "b(V5 - (. R= !
* M !E" 1# ! $ - .
2 $ E
<( . 7 V /$
M 5 #*5 " #./c
2 R. <
!E (
" 1 # !$ 5#3 4
2 $ - T=" /$ 0 #. )
* Q 0, "
3 < - 7 H " ( " #.(
' ! 1# ! #./$
2 $ ( .R = !
* M
( ./.! !M ( (!M !
" " * B ! #./$
= 2 EH
/ !( Q " # I ( 3 !@
5 ,[ !k <( .g ! ( ! f !
#. 5 ( * E 1# ! V !
2 $ 5 d * #" <( !"
5 • 1# !
2 $
1 # !$ ( 3
2 6 E 1 # !$ <( .7 c$ ( 3
2 5 ! H
"
R.,f ! # " </- ( '
5 - bP !$ /$ 7 -
; # 2 #.( .Z 6
" S $# " / E # .( . /.! $# " ?+ $
*# 9 " "
<( P 1# ! /c 5
2 $ M !@
- 6. 5 " qU$ # .( " 7- - # 0
- ( (
$ ! #" T " (" #" / 2 "
$- . , !M U !*. 5 ! ! M ,
"
* # + L 5 # " # ./$ /$ 7 . ?
( 3, #!
" 1# !
2 $
!" # .I 5 ! 5# $
2 23
( ! </3 # *
" 1# !
2 $ # 2
" U !k # " 7 - ( . . 5 " # " S "! 5g I2 ;
= *+ b ) [ "
= 5/- ( * EH 8 ,/$
# - "
# . = *+ $ #" # 3" 5 Q($ Z" * "(
P ( .7 c$
<( P " EH ./ &'- ; ( R #" /$ 0 H d
= - * €!
"H' ‚
!