The document discusses trends in U.S. energy consumption and production from 2002-present. It compares the goals and outcomes of the Apollo program and Project Independence initiative in the 1970s to land a man on the moon and achieve energy independence. Despite higher costs and longer timeframes, the U.S. achieved neither goal and energy dependence has increased. The key challenge is stabilizing the global energy supply in light of rising consumption in developing nations.

1. Energy:
Then, Now, Soon
Glenn Rambach

2. How does all our energy flow through
the United States to move our vehicles,
heat our homes and run our industry?

3. U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002
Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads

4. U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002
Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads
Energy sources
for USA
(97 Q total)

5. U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002
Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads
Energy’s
destiny
Energy sources
for USA
(97 Q total)

6. U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002
Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads
1 Quad = 1 quadrillion BTU = 1015 BTU

7. U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002
Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads
Import reduction with all ICE hybrid vehicles
1 Quad = 1 quadrillion BTU = 1015 BTU

8. U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002
Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads
Import reduction with 50% H2 fuel cell vehicles
Import reduction with all ICE hybrid vehicles
1 Quad = 1 quadrillion BTU = 1015 BTU

9. U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002
Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads
Import reduction with 50% H2 fuel cell vehicles
Import reduction with all ICE hybrid vehicles
1 Quad = 1 quadrillion BTU = 1015 BTU

10. U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002
Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads
So, what silver bullet will solve all this?
Import reduction with 50% H2 fuel cell vehicles
Import reduction with all ICE hybrid vehicles
1 Quad = 1 quadrillion BTU = 1015 BTU

11. U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002
Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads
Import reduction with 50% H2 fuel cell vehicles
Import reduction with all ICE hybrid vehicles
1 Quad = 1 quadrillion BTU = 1015 BTU

12. U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002
Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads
There is NO silver bullet that will solve our energy security problems
and satisfy this level of complexity in our nation’s network of energy
flows. There ARE individual solutions that, in aggregate will solve
all our problems.
Import reduction with 50% H2 fuel cell vehicles
Import reduction with all ICE hybrid vehicles
1 Quad = 1 quadrillion BTU = 1015 BTU

13. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”

14. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
. . . . . . . . Oh really?

15. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
Big, National, Goal-Driven Programs
Announcement
of Goal
Goal Line
Time
Distance
From
Goal

16. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
Announcement
of Goal
Goal Line
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
Apollo Program
Goal: Announced May 25, 1961
The Moon

17. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
Announcement
of Goal
Goal Line
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
Distance Apollo Program
From Goal: Announced May 25, 1961
Goal
The Moon
First US manned sub-orbital flight, 1961

18. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
Announcement
of Goal
Goal Line
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
Apollo Program
Goal: Announced May 25, 1961
The Moon
First US manned sub-orbital flight, 1961

19. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
Announcement
of Goal
Goal Line
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
Project Apollo
Apollo Program
Announced May 25, 1961
Project Gemini
Project Mercury
First US manned sub-orbital flight, 1961

20. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
Apollo11
Announcement Lunar Landing
Time: 8 years
of Goal
Goal Line
Cost: $114B (2006$)
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
Project Apollo
Apollo Program
Announced May 25, 1961
Project Gemini
Project Mercury
First US manned sub-orbital flight, 1961

21. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
Apollo11
Announcement Lunar Landing
Time: 8 years
of Goal
Goal Line
Cost: $114B (2006$)
$20 B
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
Project Apollo
Apollo Program
Announced May 25, 1961
Project Gemini
Project Mercury
First US manned sub-orbital flight, 1961
Budgets are a true
measure of priorities
$10 B

22. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
Apollo11
Announcement Lunar Landing
Time: 8 years
of Goal
Goal Line
Cost: $114B (2006$)
$20 B
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
Project Apollo
Apollo Program
Announced May 25, 1961
Project Gemini
Project Mercury
First US manned sub-orbital flight, 1961
Budgets are a true
measure of priorities
$10 B
Cost from 1961
Through Apollo 11
Mission (2006$)
1961
1969

23. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
Apollo11
Announcement Lunar Landing
Time: 8 years
of Goal
Goal Line
Cost: $114B (2006$)
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
Project Apollo
Apollo Program
Announced May 25, 1961
Project Gemini
Project Mercury
First US manned sub-orbital flight, 1961

24. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
Announcement
of Goal
Goal Line
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
2) Goal to Reduce U.S. Energy
Goal: Dependence From 30% to 0%
0% Oil
Project Independence
Dependence
Announced Nov. 7, 1973

25. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
Announcement
of Goal
Goal Line
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
Distance 2) Goal to Reduce U.S. Energy
From Goal: Dependence From 30% to 0%
Goal
0% Oil
Project Independence
Dependence
Announced Nov. 7, 1973
30% oil dependence, 1973.

26. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
Announcement
of Goal
Goal Line
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
2) Goal to Reduce U.S. Energy
Goal: Dependence From 30% to 0%
0% Oil
Project Independence
Dependence
Announced Nov. 7, 1973
30% oil dependence, 1973.

27. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
Announcement
of Goal
Goal Line
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
2) Goal to Reduce U.S. Energy
Goal: Dependence From 30% to 0%
0% Oil
Project Independence
Dependence
Announced Nov. 7, 1973
30% oil dependence, 1973.

28. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
Announcement
of Goal
Goal Line
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
2) Goal to Reduce U.S. Energy
Goal: Dependence From 30% to 0%
0% Oil
Project Independence
Dependence
Announced Nov. 7, 1973
30% oil dependence, 1973.
61% Oil
Dependence.
Time: 34 years
Cost: $147B

29. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
Announcement
of Goal
Goal Line
$20 B
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
2) Goal to Reduce U.S. Energy
Goal: Dependence From 30% to 0%
0% Oil
Project Independence
Dependence
Announced Nov. 7, 1973
30% oil dependence, 1973.
Budgets are a true
measure of priorities
$10 B
61% Oil
Dependence.
Time: 34 years
1986
1982
1994
1990
1980
1978
1974
Cost: $147B
$6 B
Fossil
$4 B
Renewable
2007 DOE
$2 B
Energy Budget
Fission
$0
Fed Budgets (Political Will) for All Energy Development, 1973 - 1997

30. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
Announcement
of Goal
Goal Line
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
2) Goal to Reduce U.S. Energy
Goal: Dependence From 30% to 0%
0% Oil
Project Independence
Dependence
Announced Nov. 7, 1973
30% oil dependence, 1973.
61% Oil
Dependence.
Time: 34 years
Cost: $147B
Since “Project Energy Independence” was announced Nov 7, 1973:
We’ve spent
• 130% the Apollo Program in cost, and
• 415% the Apollo Program in time, and are
• Twice as far from goal than at beginning

31. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
Announcement
of Goal
Goal Line
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
2) Goal to Reduce U.S. Energy
Goal: Dependence From 30% to 0%
0% Oil
Project Independence
Dependence
Announced Nov. 7, 1973
30% oil dependence, 1973.
61% Oil
Dependence.
Time: 34 years
Cost: $147B
Since “Project Energy Independence” was announced Nov 7, 1973:
We’ve spent
• 130% the Apollo Program in cost, and
• 415% the Apollo Program in time, and are
• Twice as far from goal than at beginning
Energy is far more difficult a challenge than simply landing on the moon, ending
wars or curing diseases. An Apollo Program approach is a noble idea, BUT is
fiscally inadequate to address humanity’s most difficult challenge ever, energy.

32. A Short Stop On The Way To $8.00 A Gallon

33. A Short Stop On The Way To $8.00 A Gallon
For 35 years, gasoline price was mistakenly considered the problem to
solve. It is merely a symptom, like the pressure reading on a barometer
that can really mean there’s a hurricane coming. Trying to solve gas prices
is the same as trying to fix the barometer, while ignoring the hurricane .
Far greater than $5.00 a gallon is likely.

34. A Short Stop On The Way To $8.00 A Gallon
For 35 years, gasoline price was mistakenly considered the problem to
solve. It is merely a symptom, like the pressure reading on a barometer
that can really mean there’s a hurricane coming. Trying to solve gas prices
is the same as trying to fix the barometer, while ignoring the hurricane .
Far greater than $5.00 a gallon is likely.
WRONG PROBLEM DEFINITION!

35. A Short Stop On The Way To $8.00 A Gallon
For 35 years, gasoline price was mistakenly considered the problem to
solve. It is merely a symptom, like the pressure reading on a barometer
that can really mean there’s a hurricane coming. Trying to solve gas prices
is the same as trying to fix the barometer, while ignoring the hurricane .
Far greater than $5.00 a gallon is likely.
THE problem to solve is the growth in instability of the energy supply and
its geopolitical disruption.

36. Global Supply-Demand Challenge
Barrels
of Oil Per
Second

37. Global Supply-Demand Challenge
Barrels
of Oil Per
Second

38. Global Supply-Demand Challenge
Barrels
of Oil Per
Second

39. Global Supply-Demand Challenge
Barrels
of Oil Per
Second

40. Per Capita Oil Consumption - 2006
Per Capita Oil Demand
Barrels Per Person Per Year
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/WSJ_consumption.png

41. Per Capita Oil Consumption - 2006
Per Capita Oil Demand
Barrels Per Person Per Year
1.32B
45% of the
.235B
World’s Population
1.13B
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/WSJ_consumption.png

42. Per Capita Oil Consumption - 2006
Per Capita Oil Demand
Barrels Per Person Per Year
1.32B
45% of the
.235B
World’s Population
1.13B
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/WSJ_consumption.png

43. Per Capita Oil Consumption - 2006
Per Capita Oil Demand
Barrels Per Person Per Year
+ 8.83
1.32B
45% of the
+ 8.86
.235B
World’s Population
1.13B + 9.94
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/WSJ_consumption.png

44. Per Capita Oil Consumption - 2006
Per Capita Oil Demand
Barrels Per Person Per Year
+ 8.83
1.32B
45% of the
+ 8.86
.235B
World’s Population
1.13B + 9.94
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/WSJ_consumption.png
If the populations of China, India and Indonesia increase oil
consumption to the level of Italy, world oil consumption
would increase from 87 to 113 million barrels a day.
Like adding 1.2 X United States to world consumption.

45. Per Capita Oil Consumption - 2006
Per Capita Oil Demand
Barrels Per Person Per Year
+ 8.83
1.32B
45% of the
+ 8.86
.235B
World’s Population
1.13B + 9.94
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/WSJ_consumption.png
If the populations of China, India and Indonesia increase oil
consumption to the level of Italy, world oil consumption
would increase from 87 to 113 million barrels a day.
Like adding 1.2 X United States to world consumption.

46. Russian Oil Production and Consumption
2006:
Thousand Barrels a Day
Russia exported 6.86 million
barrels of oil a day.
If that is the same today, then at
$100 a barrel, Russia is netting
$250B a year in hard cash.
While at the same time the USA
is spending $498B a year to
import oil.
www.eia.doe.gov
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=RS

47. Russian Oil Production and Consumption
2006:
Thousand Barrels a Day
Russia exported 6.86 million
barrels of oil a day.
If that is the same today, then at
$100 a barrel, Russia is netting
$250B a year in hard cash.
While at the same time the USA
is spending $498B a year to
import oil.
www.eia.doe.gov
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=RS

48. Russian Oil Production and Consumption
2006:
Thousand Barrels a Day
Russia exported 6.86 million
barrels of oil a day.
If that is the same today’s
$50/barrel, Russia is netting
$125B a year in hard cash.
While at the same time the USA
is spending $235B a year to
import oil.
www.eia.doe.gov
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=RS

49. Russian Oil Production and Consumption
2006:
Thousand Barrels a Day
Russia exported 6.86 million
barrels of oil a day.
If that is the same today’s
$50/barrel, Russia is netting
$125B a year in hard cash.
While at the same time the USA
is spending $235B a year to
import oil.
www.eia.doe.gov
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=RS

50. OK, So Much for the
Downers (Challenges)

51. OK, So Much for the
Downers (Challenges)
Now Part of the
Upside and Opportunity

52. OK, So Much for the
Downers (Challenges)
Now Part of the
Upside and Opportunity
- Fuel Cells and Hydrogen -

53. Hydrogen Fuel Cell Cars in the News in 1993
1993
Energy Partners’ Green Car
• Hydrogen fuel
• Three 5-kW PEM fuel cells

54. Small Sample of Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Cars in the News in 2008

55. Redesigning the Way We Design Cars
GM Sequel Hydrogen Fuel Cell SUV
ALL the Car Stuff is Inside the “Skateboard”

56. 2009 Honda Clarity Key Components
134 HP Electric Motor and Transmission
134 HP Fuel Cell Stack

57. Solar Powered Hydrogen Refueling Station

58. New Driver in 2017
We need to be producing about 1 - 3 million
non-fossil powered cars per year when he
begins driving.

59. New Driver in 2017
We need to be producing about 1 - 3 million
non-fossil powered cars per year when he
begins driving.
Salami sandwich provided for scale.

60. What Choice do We Make NOW to “Save the World”?

61. What Choice do We Make NOW to “Save the World”?
With all the technology, economic, strategic and policy
options we have, WHAT choice do we make to finally
provide a sustainable and independent energy
economy?

62. What Choice do We Make NOW to “Save the World”?
With all the technology, economic, strategic and policy
options we have, WHAT choice do we make to finally
provide a sustainable and independent energy
economy?
•Your action
•The education of others
•The public
•Politicians
•Industry and financial leaders

63. Thank You Very Much

64. Civilization’s Development in Food and Energy
With abundant food and low
populations, we existed as:
Hunters and
Food
gatherers of food
During the last ice age we
developed the tools and Cultivators of food
techniques to become:
Hunters and gatherers of energy
Fire Whale oil Peat Coal Oil Nat gas Fissile mat’l
Energy
Cultivators of
New technologies now
energy
permit us to be: Hydro Wind/Solar/Biomass/OTEC
1,000,000 100,000 10,000 1,000 100 10 1
Years before present