The Results Are In: Top 5 Predictions for the (Most Likely) Future

Tomorrow’s Media, Understood Today
www.BorrellAssociates.com
The Most Likely Future
Top 5 Predictions
from Borrell ‘Expert Panel’
June 2015

6/24/2015
© Borrell Inc., 2015. All rights reserved
Results from Q2 2015 Delphi/Experts Panel
• 10 predictions were submitted to the Panel
• Each prediction was judged on Probability and Time to Occur
• These 2 factors were independent of each other
• The Panel was allowed to see the results of the first round – and
then was asked to further define their answer
• Peer response coupled with increased definition should work
toward consensus
With the help of the Panel, we declare the probability of these outcomes.
This presentation is ordered from least likely to occur to most.
The prediction is stated and graded on the following scale
Verified --- Probable --- Depends --- Improbable --- No Way
Another slide will go into more detail on the Panel’s reaction and our thoughts

6/24/2015
© Borrell Inc., 2015. All rights reserved 2
Electronic LED billboards, currently 1%
of all billboards, outnumber old
fashioned poster billboards on U.S.
highways.

6/24/2015
The panel believed this to be possible, but it
will not happen to well into the next decade.
The U.S. is a little behind some other
countries when it comes to LED billboards and
DOOH altogether. Outside of concentrated
examples of LED billboards (Time Square, Las Vegas)
our country has a lot of lonely highways with a lot of
paper billboards. Even if the desire was there, the
converting to digital would be a tactical headache.
However, the benefit is there. From
programmatic buying to tailoring your message
based on approaching traffic, the promise of DOOH
is enticing.
Additionally, the flexibility of LED in particular
can give rise to outdoor advertisements paper
billboards could only dream of.
But again, it will take a while to run out all
those extension cords.
44%
Mid
2023Chances of it happening: Time of occurrence:
Electronic LED billboards, currently 1% of all billboards, outnumber old
fashioned poster billboards on U.S. highways.
T h e B o t t o m L i n e
4.3%
13.0%
14.1%
10.9%
6.5%
10.9%
14.1%
15.2%
5.4% 5.4%
0-10% 11-20% 21-30% 31-40% 41-50% 51-60% 61-70% 71-80% 81-90% 91-100%
Probability
Impossible Certain
1.1% 0.0%
5.4%
19.6% 19.6%
14.1%
32.6%
4.3%
2.2% 1.1%
1 year 2 years 3 years 4-5 years 6-7 years 8-9 years 10-14 years 15-19 years 20-24 years 25+ years
Time to Occurrence
Far FutureImmediate

6/24/2015
Streaming audio/video replaces
banners as the format of choice for
interactive advertising on local
websites.

6/24/2015
The growth of online video is
phenomenal. Online video viewers have
grown 34% since 2010.
Facebook now rivals YouTube in amount
of video views. People are becoming
increasingly familiar with videos embedded
into their lives vis a vis Facebook newsfeed.
It is interesting to see the concentration
of responses in the Time to Occurrence
question. Over two-thirds of the panel puts
this event at happening within 3-5 years.
Online video production is about to explode
and those media companies who can get in
front of it will win.
49%
Late
Streaming audio/video replaces banners as the format of choice for
interactive advertising on local websites.
4.0% 4.0%
16.8%
11.9%
6.9%
9.9%
21.8%
11.9%
5.9% 6.9%
0-10% 11-20% 21-30% 31-40% 41-50% 51-60% 61-70% 71-80% 81-90% 91-100%
Probability
Impossible Certain
2.0%
20.0%
30.0%
38.0%
8.0%
1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
Time to Occurrence
Far FutureImmediate

6/24/2015
The last local newspaper ceases daily
printing; those remaining print four
days a week or less.

6/24/2015
Most recently, The Union-Tribune in San
Diego announced they were laying off a third
of its workforce. Papers everywhere are
experiencing similar cost-cutting measures.
The pressures on newspaper companies are
well-documented and a few have already
begun the hard transition to non-daily
circulation. Even the Editor-in-Chief of USA
today made the grim announcement that
they could stop publishing a daily print
edition in “five or six years.”
The days of yesterday’s news coming to
you in a printed form every morning are
coming to a close.
50%
Late
The last local newspaper ceases daily printing; those remaining print
four days a week or less.
9.2%
11.2%
4.1%
12.2% 12.2%
4.1%
7.1%
18.4%
9.2%
12.2%
0-10% 11-20% 21-30% 31-40% 41-50% 51-60% 61-70% 71-80% 81-90% 91-100%
Probability
Impossible Certain
1.0%
3.1%
8.2%
22.4%
17.3% 16.3% 17.3%
6.1%
3.1%
5.1%
Time to Occurrence
Far FutureImmediate

6/24/2015
Media fragmentation causes Congress
to repeal cross-ownership rules;
media companies begin swapping
newspapers, TV and radio stations to
own multiple media outlets in each
market.

6/24/2015
Most of the FCC rules on cross-ownership were
born 39 years ago – long before the internet, citizen
journalists, and “free”, easily assessable information.
Media companies have been dealing with a new
competitor – one that can turn anyone into a legitimate
content provider.
Media companies are no longer the giants they
once were in local markets and if they desire that kind
of lofty viewpoint again, they may need to stand on
each other’s shoulders.
The FCC’s Incentive Auction puts further
pressure on traditional media companies to appeal the
cross-ownership rules if Verizon and AT&T are picking
up spectrum in local markets.
The will is certainly there from media companies
to do something right now, but considering we are
dealing with a government agency, a timetable of 4
years seems about right.
50%
Late
Media fragmentation causes Congress to repeal cross-ownership rules; media companies begin
swapping newspapers, TV and radio stations to own multiple media outlets in each market.
3.2%
7.5%
9.7%
8.6%
14.0%
10.8%
17.2%
16.1%
8.6%
4.3%
0-10% 11-20% 21-30% 31-40% 41-50% 51-60% 61-70% 71-80% 81-90% 91-100%
Probability
Impossible Certain
0.0%
6.5%
17.4%
44.6%
13.0%
7.6% 6.5%
2.2% 1.1% 1.1%
Time to Occurrence
Far FutureImmediate

6/24/2015
Pageviews from mobile devices,
currently less than 20% of all web
traffic, overtake pageviews from
desktop computers.

6/24/2015
This statement had the strongest consensus
of any prediction we have released to date. It is
clear that the panel feels this WILL happen – and it
will happen in 3 years time.
It’s old news that mobile is the hot new
media, but it is worth noting what incredible
growth rates are associated with all things mobile.
Consider this, by 2011, more smartphones
were being shipped than desktop & laptops
combined. By 2013, the shipments of smartphones
& tablets were nearly double of desktops & laptops.
And now, in one year, the percentage of
pageviews in North America coming from a mobile
device grew by 79%.
Mobile will officially dominate page views
mid-2018.
78%
Mid
Page views from mobile devices, currently less than 20% of all web traffic,
overtake page views from desktop computers.
1.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5.4%
0.0%
4.3% 5.4%
19.6%
15.2%
48.9%
0-10% 11-20% 21-30% 31-40% 41-50% 51-60% 61-70% 71-80% 81-90% 91-100%
Probability
Impossible Certain
3.3%
23.9%
38.0%
28.3%
4.3%
1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Time to Occurrence
Far FutureImmediate

6/24/2015
© Borrell Inc., 2015. All rights reserved
Predict the Future
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pureplay, etc.)
• It is an ANONYMOUS panel – polled once a quarter
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of leaders in their respective fields.
• If you would like to apply to be part of the panel, please go
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The Results Are In: Top 5 Predictions for the (Most Likely) Future

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The Results Are In: Top 5 Predictions for the (Most Likely) Future