This is a discussion of a part of Jared Diamond's famous book entitled "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed."

1. A discussion on
why societies
choose to fail or
collapse…

3. I. Failure to Anticipate a Problem
A. Reasons
1. They may not have had no prior experience
of such problems, and so may not have been
sensitized the possibility.
2. The experience of having a problem may had
happened so long ago, as to have been
forgotten.
a.) in the context of non-literate societies
b.) in the context of literate societies
3. Reasoning by false analogy

4. Wrong decisions
= Depression
= Collapse
= Disaster

5. II. Failure to perceive a problem
once it has arisen
A. Reasons
1. Origins of some problems are literally
imperceptible
2. Distant Managers
3. When a problem takes the form of a slow
trend concealed by wide up-and-down
fluctuations.
a.) “creeping normalcy”
b.) “landscape amnesia”

6. a.) “creeping normalcy”

7. b.) “landscape amnesia”
before

8. after

9. III. Failure to Attempt to Solve a
Problem once it has been perceived
A. Reasons
1. Rational "bad” behavior, arising from
clashes of interest between people.
a.) Perverse subsidies

10. b.) "Good for me, bad for you and for
everybody else" attitude—
selfishness

11. c.) Tragedy of the commons

12. d.) ISEP – “It's someone else's
problem” (not mine! Duh..)

13. e.) When the principal consumer has no
long-term stake in preserving the
resource but society as a whole does.
f.) When the interests of the decision-
making elite in power clash with the
interests of the rest of the society.
"bad”

14. 2. Irrational “worse” Behavior

15. "Wooden-headedness, the source
of self deception, is a factor that
plays a remarkably large role in
government. It consists in
assessing a situation in terms of
preconceived fixed notions while
ignoring or rejecting any contrary
signs. It is acting according to
wish while not allowing oneself to
be deflected by the facts. No
experience of failure shakes belief
in its essential excellence."

16. Mental standstill

17. "Persistence in error is
the problem. Practitioners of
government continue down
the wrong road as if in thrall
to some magic power which
directs their steps. To
recognize error, to cut
losses, to alter course is the
most repugnant option in
government."

19. In Economics and in
business decision-
making, sunk costs
are costs that have
already been
incurred and which
cannot be recovered
to any significant
degree.

21. “disastrous values”

22. religious values
modern secular
values
“disastrous values”

23. OTHER IRRATIONAL VALUES

24. 4. Other Irrational Failures
a.) The public may widely dislike those who
first perceive the problem

25. OTHER IRRATIONAL VALUES
a. The public may widely dislike those
who first perceive the problem

26. b.) The public may dismiss warnings
because of previous warnings that
proved to be false alarms – The boy
who cried (wolf) bomb!

27. OTHER IRRATIONAL VALUES
c. Clashes between short-term and long-
term motives of the same individual

28. OTHER IRRATIONAL VALUES
d. Crowd psychology
> Ordinary people can typically gain
direct power by acting collectively.
>because large groups of people
have been able to effect dramatic and
sudden social change in a manner that
bypasses established due process,
they have also provoked controversy.

29. d.) Crowd psychology

30. OTHER IRRATIONAL VALUES
e. Groupthink
> type of thought exhibited by group
members who try to minimize conflict
and reach consensus without critically
testing, analyzing, and evaluating
ideas.

31. e.) Groupthink

32. f.) Psychological denial
“Don’t
worry, it
won’t
collapse,
again..”

33. OTHER IRRATIONAL VALUES
f. Psychological denial
> a defense mechanism in which a
person is faced with a fact that is too
painful to accept and rejects it instead,
insisting that it is not true despite what
may be overwhelming evidence..

34. IV. Failure to Solve a Problem

35. A. Reasons
1. The problems may be beyond our
present capacities to solve.
a.) due to lack of technology
b.) due to lack of funds
c.) "too little, too late“ - Procrastination

36. Why then do some societies succeed
and others fail?
A. Differences among environments
rather than among societies
(Environmental determinism)

38. B. Idiosyncrasies of particular
individuals

39. Cases: a, b,… x, y,…z

40. C. Crisis management by decision-
makers/leaders

41. Kennedy
Tokugawa Shogun
Joaquin Balaguer
Tikopian Chiefs
Konrad Adenauer

42. D. Proper selection of core values to be
upheld or to be given up by nations.

43. • 1. premature sense of ostensible unanimity
• 2. suppression of personal doubts
• 3. expression of contrary views

44. thinking skeptically
allow discussions to be freewheeling
subgroups should meet separately (organized
and specialized meeting)
occasionally leave the room to avoid overly
influencing the discussion himself
PositiveValues

46. Norway

47. Easter Island

48. Haiti

49. Fin…
Gracias!!!