58558.docx

State budgeting impact on Greece
economic recovery

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Abstract
This research paper addresses the impact of state budgeting on the economic
recovery of Greece. Following a decade of austerity measures, the macroeconomic
indices of the Greek economy along with credit ratings have started improving slowly
yet steadily. In this research, the state budgeting reliability, role and usefulness are
examined, especially under the economic crisis specifics. The Greek economy
macroeconomic indices between 2001Q1 and 2020Q4 are examined as a state
budgeting manifestation.
Keywords; State budgeting, economic recovery, Greece, macroeconomy

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Table of contents
Abstract..........................................................................................................................ii
Table of contents ...........................................................................................................3
List of charts...................................................................................................................5
List of tables...................................................................................................................7
List of figures................................................................................................................10
1. Introduction ............................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
2. Literature review.....................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
2.1. Introduction......................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
3. Data and methodology ...........................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
3.1. Data collection..................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
3.2. Data analysis.....................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
4. Results and analysis ................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
4.1. Descriptive statistics analysis and data visualizationsError! Bookmark not
defined.
4.2. Hypotheses testing...........................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
4.2.1. Hypothesis 1; GDP and unemployment....Error! Bookmark not defined.
4.2.2. Hypothesis 2; GDP and Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)
Error! Bookmark not defined.
4.2.3. Hypothesis 3; Total general government revenue and unemployment

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4.2.4. Hypothesis 4; Total general government revenue and Harmonised Index
of Consumer Prices (HICP) ......................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
4.2.5. Hypothesis 5; Total general government expenditure and
unemployment........................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
4.2.6. Hypothesis 6; Total general government expenditure and Harmonised
Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) ............................Error! Bookmark not defined.
4.2.7. Hypothesis 7; Government consolidated gross debt and unemployment
4.2.8. Hypothesis 8; Government consolidated gross debt and Harmonised
Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) ............................Error! Bookmark not defined.
4.2.9. Hypothesis 9; Government consolidated gross debt and GDP impact on
Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)........Error! Bookmark not defined.
4.2.10. Hypothesis 10; Government consolidated gross debt and GDP impact
on unemployment ...............................................................................................11
4.3. Event study analysis ......................................................................................12
4.3.1. Economic Adjustment Programmes ......................................................13
4.3.2. ECB QE programme Greece participation .............................................19
Conclusions ..................................................................................................................21
References ...................................................................................................................25
Appendix II; Event study input.................................................................................xxviii
Appendix III; Event study output .............................................................................xxxiii

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List of charts
Chart 1: GDP (market prices, adjusted), gross capital formation (unadjusted), general
government consolidated gross debt (unadjusted) and general government final
consumption expenditure (seasonally adjusted) ...........Error! Bookmark not defined.
Chart 2: Total general government expenditure in in absolute values and as a GDP
percentage (unadjusted data) ........................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
Chart 3: Total general government revenue in absolute values and as a GDP
percentage......................................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
Chart 4: Government consolidated debt in absolute values and as a GDP percentage
.........................................................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
Chart 5: Net lending(+) or borrowing(-), total general government expenditure and
revenue (unadjusted data) .............................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
Chart 6: Total unemployment by sex age as a percentage of the labour force and as
percentage of the total population ................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
Chart 7: Harmonized index of prices ratio......................Error! Bookmark not defined.
Chart 8: Total population................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
Chart 9: Residuals, actual and fitted values for model 1 Error! Bookmark not defined.
Chart 10: Residuals, actual and fitted values for model 2Error! Bookmark not
defined.
defined.
defined.

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defined.
Chart 14: Residuals, actual and fitted values for model 10.........................................12

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List of tables
Table 1: Linear regression for testing hypothesis 1........Error! Bookmark not defined.
Table 10: Linear regression for testing hypothesis 10.................................................11
Table 11: Economic Adjustment Programmes overview.............................................17
Table 12: Hypotheses testing summary.......................................................................22
Table 13: Macroeconomic indices 1/2............................Error! Bookmark not defined.
Table 14: Macroeconomic indices 2/2............................Error! Bookmark not defined.
Table 15: Input variables coding..............................................................................xxviii
Table 16: Event study input data...............................................................................xxix
Table 17: Event Study 1st Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on
TGEXP.......................................................................................................................xxxiii
Table 18: Event Study 2nd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on
TGEXP.......................................................................................................................xxxiv

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Table 19: Event Study 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on
TGEXP........................................................................................................................xxxv
Table 20: Event Study 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme termination impact on
TGEXP.......................................................................................................................xxxvi
TGREV......................................................................................................................xxxvii
TGREV.....................................................................................................................xxxviii
TGREV.......................................................................................................................xxxix
TGREV............................................................................................................................ xl
UNEMP......................................................................................................................... xli
UNEMP........................................................................................................................ xlii
UNEMP....................................................................................................................... xliii
UNEMP....................................................................................................................... xliv
Table 29: Event Study 1st Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on HICP
..................................................................................................................................... xlv
Table 30: Event Study 2nd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on HICP
.................................................................................................................................... xlvi

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Table 31: Event Study 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on HICP
....................................................................................................................................xlvii
HICP...........................................................................................................................xlviii
Table 33: Event Study Initiation of ECB purchasing Greek banks bonds impact on
UNEMP....................................................................................................................... xlix
Table 34: Event Study Initiation of ECB purchasing Greek banks bonds impact on HICP
.........................................................................................................................................l

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List of figures
Figure 1: 2010 – 2018 financial assistance to Greece (European Council, 2019)........14
Figure 2: Greece reform packages under the 1st to 3rd economic adjustment
programmes 2010 – 2018 (European Council, 2019)..................................................15
Figure 3: Government deficit and real GDP growth rate evolution 2009 – 2019
(European Council, 2019).............................................................................................16
Figure 4: Commitments about the end of the 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme
and the period after its completion (European Council, 2019)...................................16

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1.1.1. Hypothesis 10; Government consolidated gross debt and GDP impact on
unemployment
H0: The government consolidated gross debt and the GDP do not have an impact on
the unemployment rates
H1: Alternative
Table 1: Linear regression for testing hypothesis 10
The unemployment rate, as a percentage of the population in the labour force,
seasonally adjusted and not calendar adjusted is the dependent value and the
government consolidated gross debt, the GDP and a constant are the independent
variables.
The p-value is 0,0000 <<< 0,01 both for the constant and for the independent
variables. Therefore, the null hypothesis 10 is rejected, stating that the government
consolidated gross debt and the GDP have a statistically significant impact on the
unemployment rates on a 99% confidence level. More specifically, the adjusted R
equals 0,85 reflecting very good model fit. The constant coefficient equals 21,87058
while the intercept coefficients equal 7,51E-5 and -0,000548 for the two independent
variables respectively.

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The overall model p value equals 0,0000 <<< 0,01, therefore the aforementioned
model can predict the unemployment rates statistically significantly on a 99%
confidence level.
𝑢𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠
= 21,87058 + 7,51𝐸 − 05
× 𝐺𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡 − 0,000548 × 𝐺𝐷𝑃
The aforementioned model can explain 85% of the change in the unemployment rates
on a 99% confidence level.
Chart 1: Residuals, actual and fitted values for model 10
Moreover, the Durbin – Watson statistic equals 0,081922, which indicates that there
is significant negative autocorrelation between the dependent and the independent
value. Further analysis is provided in the next section. Similarly with model 9, the
model fit and the autocorrelation have been improved via inserting two independent
variables in the model instead of one.
1.2. Event study analysis
As mentioned above, an extended event study analysis has been conducted in the last
part of the analysis. The impact of state budgeting decisions on fiscal numbers and on
macroeconomic indices have been examined. The events whose impact is examined

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are the initiation of EU bailout program and the announcement of Greece’s opting in
for the ECB QE program.
The event study was based on a Benninga (2008) book (Benninga, 2008), while given
a lack of data for the EU27 or EU28 or EA, a 5 years moving average of the input data
was utilized as the norm for conducting the event study.
1.2.1. Economic Adjustment Programmes
On April 23rd 2010 (2010 Q2), the Greek PM announced that the country would opt
in for a bailout program upon risk of default. Following this announcement, Greece
signed the 1st Economic Adjustment Programme on May 2nd 2010, which would
expire in June 2013. Earlier than the expected expiration of the 1st Economic
Adjustment Programme, the country signed the 2nd Economic Adjustment
Programme on March 1st 2012, with an expected expiration date set for the end of
2014 (European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs,
2014). Following a change in the governing party and extensive negotiations, including
a disputed referendum about a new memorandum (bailout program) and the
imposition of capital controls, the newly elected government signed the 3rd Economic
Adjustment Programme in August 2015, with an expected expiration set for August
2018 (European Council, 2019).
The 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme ended in August 2018, although the
country keeps undergoing enhanced surveillance evaluations in order to monitor the
commitments made by the Greek Government on the June 22nd 2018 eurogroup
regarding the post memorandum period. The most recent enhanced surveillance was
held on January 2022, while it is worth mentioning that the commitments taken by
the Greek Government post the 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme end are
significantly more elastic than those during the Economic Adjustment Programme
active periods.

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A comprehensive infographic (Figure 1) is provided below, according to which, Greece
received a total of €256,6 billion between 2010 and 2018, a 0,29% of the euro area
GDP for the aforementioned period. It is worth noticing that upon periodical
surveillance reports on the progress of the economic adjustment programmes, Greece
failed to absorb the total of the capital committed. More specifically, although a total
of €310,7 billion was committed in three programmes, only €256,6 billion or an
82,59% of the total capital committed was disbursed, which is among others blamed
for the reduced Greek economy adjustment (Pagoulatos, 2018; Revuelta, 2021).
Figure 1: 2010 – 2018 financial assistance to Greece (European Council, 2019)

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The three aforementioned economic adjustment programmes among providing the
country with an excessive amount of capital to meet liabilities, triggered a total of
fifteen reform packages between 2010 and 2018, including the financial sector reform,
the tax reforms, the reform of public administration, the labour and product market
reforms, the pension system reforms, extensive public organizations and public assets
privatization and others, as depicted below in Figure 2;
Figure 2: Greece reform packages under the 1st to 3rd economic adjustment programmes 2010 – 2018
(European Council, 2019)
According to a European Council publication, the impact of the three Economic
Adjustment Programmes on the Greek Economy was huge, including an astonishing
decrease in the government deficit from -15,1% in 2009 to +0,8% (surplus) in 2017
(Figure 3). Moreover, the real GDP growth rate reached 2,3% yoy (forecasted) in 2019
from -4,3% yoy in 2009;

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Figure 3: Government deficit and real GDP growth rate evolution 2009 – 2019 (European Council, 2019)
Finally, before concluding the agreed measures, according to a European Council
publication, reforms and commitments agreed upon the completion of the 3rd
Economic Adjustment Programme, the Greek Government agreed to go through
periodical surveillance missions for the next years (Figure 4), definitely overlapping
the data examined in this paper, which reach the end of 2020 Q2 (European Council,
2019);
Figure 4: Commitments about the end of the 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme and the period after its
completion (European Council, 2019)

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Table 2: Economic Adjustment Programmes overview
1st Economic Adjustment Programme
Agreed; 2 May 2010
PM; G. Papandreou, PASOK
Tenure; May 2010 – June 2013
Committed capital; €107,3 billion (upon Slovakia quitting a €2,7 billion contribution)
Contributors; €80 billion bilateral Loans pooled from the Euro Area (€80bn) and €30
billion from the IMF
Objectives;
 Implementation of fiscal consolidation boosting sustainability
 Implementation of financial sector policies to stabilize the economy
 Vast reforms in the Greek Economy structure to increase investments
attraction and exports growth
 Greek credibility restoration as perceived by private investors
Capital disbursed; €52,9 billion were disbursed until the 2nd Economic Adjustment
Programme was agreed
2nd Economic Adjustment Programme
Agreed; 1 March 2012
PM; L. Papademos, ND & PASOK
Tenure; March 2012- December 2014
Committed capital; €164,5 billion
Contributors; €144,7 billion from the EFSF and €19,8 billion from the IMF

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Objectives;
 Private held debt reduction - restructuring to alleviate the total debt level
 Competitiveness and growth enhancement via enhanced fiscal
consolidation efforts and structural reforms
Upon a Government change, the programme was extended to the end of June 2015
and expired before a new programme agreement. Upon intense negotiations, the
Greek government failed to reimburse roughly €1,5 billion to the IMF, triggering a
three-week bank holiday and the imposition of capital movement restriction
measures.
Capital disbursed; €141,8 billion
3rd Economic Adjustment Programme
Agreed; 19 August 2015
PM; A. Tsipras, SYRIZA & ANEL
Tenure; August 2015- August 2018
Amount; €86bn
Contributors; €86 billion from the ESM
Objectives;
 Fiscal sustainability restoration
 Financial stability maintenance
 Growth, competitiveness and investments attraction enhancement
 Public administration reforms
Capital disbursed; €61,9 billion
Conclusively, the events analyzed forward are linked to the following dates;

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 2010 Q2 (1st Economic Adjustment Programme initiation)
 2012 Q1 (2nd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation)
 2015 Q3 (3rd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation)
 2018 Q3 (3rd Economic Adjustment Programme termination)
The conclusions reached upon conducting multiple events studies are provided below
and the corresponding tables are provided in Appendix III;
 No statistically significant critical event is identified in terms of TGEXP (Total
Government Expenditure)
 No statistically significant critical event is identified in terms of TGREV (Total
Government Revenue)
 The unemployment rate (UNEMP) is showing statistically significant abnormal
variances after the 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation on a 94%
significance level and after the 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme
termination on a 91% significance level.
 The HICP is showing statistically significant abnormal variances after the 3rd
Economic Adjustment Programme termination on a 74% significance level
1.2.2. ECB QE programme Greece participation
According to De Grauwe & Ji (2015), Greece was excluded from the initial launch of
the European Central Bank Quantitative Easing programme in mid-2014, due to both
technical and political reasons, holding back for Greece significant debt relief which
other Euro Area member states benefited from (De Grauwe & Ji, 2015). According to
Bahceli (2020) and Kourtali (2020), the Greek Economy has benefitted from a
significant decrease in capital cost, upon the March 2020 country inclusion in the QE
programme (Bahceli, 2020; Kourtali, 2020). Upon the first debt purchase by the ECD,
the within months purchase of a total of €73 billion Greek bonds by the ECB by August

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2020 led to a significant decrease in the country exposure to debt and to record low
in debt cost (Bahceli & Ranasinghe, 2020).
Yet it is worth mentioning that despite Greek Sovereign Bonds did not participate in
the ECB Assets Repurchase Programme, the ECB started buying Greek banks bonds as
right after the QE program launch, this in 2014 Q2 (Reuters, 2015).
Conclusively, the events analyzed forward are linked to the following dates;
 2014 Q2 (Initiation of ECB purchasing Greek banks bonds)
 2020Q3 (Inclusion of Greek Sovereign Bonds in the ECB QE programme)
Given the available data reaches 2020Q4, the event study analysis for the latter is not
feasible. Given the findings provided in the previous paragraph, only the UNEMP and
HICP variables abnormal variances were tested using the event study analysis.
 The unemployment rate (UNEMP) is showing statistically significant abnormal
variances after the Initiation of ECB purchasing Greek banks bonds on a 90%
significance level
 The HICP is showing statistically significant abnormal variances after the
Initiation of ECB purchasing Greek banks bonds on a 90% significance level

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Conclusions
State budgeting decisions have a direct impact on both the Government fiscal figures
and on macroeconomic indices. This paper addressed the impact of state budgeting
decisions by the Greek governments on fiscal numbers as well as on macroeconomic
indices, in order to assess the reliability, role, usefulness and overall impact of the
state budgeting on the Greek economy. Given the research topic is rather unexplored
in current literature, this paper introduces novel findings and contributes towards
appraising the role of state budgeting. Greece is a special case, since the state
budgeting decisions have been affected harshly especially during the 2012 – 2018
period, where the country underwent three consecutive economic adjustment
programmes, among others undertaking commitments for state budgeting decisions.
Moreover, the period prior to the first economic adjustment programme initiation,
the reliability, role and effectiveness (usefulness) of the Greek Government decisions
are disputed since the Greek economy was driven close to default. Lastly, during the
post economic adjustment programmes period, the Greek state budgeting decisions
are taken more freely yet under some restrictions following the country commitments
to the June 2018 Eurogroup.
The research conducted under this paper context sat on an expanded dataset for the
2000Q1 - 2020Q4 period, incorporating a total of eighty one quarterly observations of
the gross domestic product, the debt in absolute values as well as a percentage of the
gross domestic product, the gross capital formation, the total net lending, the
expenditure and revenue, in absolute values as well as percentage of the gross
domestic product, the total population, the unemployment rates as a percentage of
the population and a percentage of the total labour force and the harmonized index
of prices ratio. Most of the data has been collected both unadjusted and either
seasonally or calendar or both seasonally and calendar adjusted.

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A total of ten hypotheses was tested in order to examine the impact of state budgeting
decisions on fiscal numbers and on macroeconomic indices (real economy). The
conclusions reached are provided and discussed below, noting that the significance
level for all the below-mentioned linear and multiple regression models is 99%;
Table 3: Hypotheses testing summary
Hypothesis conclusion Proposed model
Adjusted R
value
The GDP has a statistically
significant impact on the
unemployment rates
47%
The GDP has a statistically
quarterly Harmonised Index
of Consumer Prices
42%
The total general
government revenue does
not have a statistically
unemployment rates
not applying -
The total general
government revenue does
not have a statistically
of Consumer Prices
not applying -
The total general
government expenditure
does not have a statistically
unemployment rates
The total general
government expenditure
does not have a statistically
𝑢𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑎𝑠 𝑎 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑙𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑐𝑒
= 40,30644 − 0,000507 × 𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝑎𝑡 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑠
𝐻𝑎𝑟𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥 𝑜𝑓 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑟 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑠 = −5,158416 + 0,000143 × 𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝑎𝑡 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑠

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of Consumer Prices
The government
consolidated gross debt has
a statistically significant
impact on the
unemployment rates
66,5%
The government
consolidated gross debt has
a statistically significant
impact on the HICP
60%
The government
consolidated gross debt and
the GDP have a statistically
HICP
75%
The government
consolidated gross debt and
the GDP have a statistically
unemployment rates
85%
With regards to the events study analyses conducted in the latter part of the research,
the following dates, linked to critical events (related to the Economic Adjustment
Programmes effect and to the ECB QE inclusion), have been utilized upon researching
the literature;
 Economic Adjustment Programme effect
o 2010 Q2 (1st Economic Adjustment Programme initiation)
o 2012 Q1 (2nd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation)
o 2015 Q3 (3rd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation)
o 2018 Q3 (3rd Economic Adjustment Programme termination)
 ECB QE inclusion
o 2014 Q2 (Initiation of ECB purchasing Greek banks bonds)
o 2020Q3 (Inclusion of Greek Sovereign Bonds in the ECB QE programme)
𝑢𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑎𝑠 𝑎 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑙𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑐𝑒
= −3,626352 + 7,19𝐸 − 05 × 𝐺𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡
𝐻𝑎𝑟𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥 𝑜𝑓 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑟 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑠 = 7,365510 − 2,07𝐸 − 05 × 𝐺𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡
𝐻𝑎𝑟𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥 𝑜𝑓 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑟 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑠
= 0,217276 − 2,14𝐸 − 05 × 𝐺𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡 + 0,000153 × 𝐺𝐷𝑃
𝑢𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠 = 21,87058 + 7,51𝐸 − 05 × 𝐺𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡 − 0,000548 × 𝐺𝐷𝑃

25
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xxviii
Appendix II; Event study input
Table 4: Input variables coding
Raw variable Coded variable
Total general government expenditure / General government / Unadjusted
data (i.e. neither seasonally adjusted nor calendar adjusted data) / Million
euro
TGEXP
Total general government revenue / General government / Unadjusted data
(i.e. neither seasonally adjusted nor calendar adjusted data) / Million euro
TGREV
Unemployment by sex and age / Total / Percentage of population in the
labour force / From 15 to 74 years / Seasonally adjusted data, not calendar
adjusted data
UNEMP
HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change)*selected the relevant quarters
/ All-items HICP / Annual rate of change
HICP

xxix
Table 5: Event study input data
TIME TGEXP Change 5y MAV Change TGREV Change 5y MAV Change UNEMP Change 5y MAV Change HICP Change 5y MAV Change
2001Q1 15969 14280 10,8 3,2
2001Q2 17209 7,77% 15105 5,78% 10,8 0,00% 4,5 40,63%
2001Q3 16317 -5,18% 15856 4,97% 10,6 -1,85% 4 -11,11%
2001Q4 20493 25,59% 16428 3,61% 11 3,77% 3,5 -12,50%
2002Q1 16883 -17,62% 17.374,20 15311 -6,80% 15.396,00 10,9 -0,91% 10,82 4,3 22,86% 3,90
2002Q2 19904 17,89% 18.161,20 4,53% 16907 10,42% 15.921,40 3,41% 10,3 -5,50% 10,72 -0,92% 3,6 -16,28% 3,98 2,05%
2002Q3 18026 -9,44% 18.324,60 0,90% 17099 1,14% 16.320,20 2,50% 10,3 0,00% 10,62 -0,93% 3,8 5,56% 3,84 -3,52%
2002Q4 20047 11,21% 19.070,60 4,07% 15696 -8,21% 16.288,20 -0,20% 10 -2,91% 10,50 -1,13% 3,5 -7,89% 3,74 -2,60%
2003Q1 18957 -5,44% 18.763,40 -1,61% 16458 4,85% 16.294,20 0,04% 9,9 -1,00% 10,28 -2,10% 3,9 11,43% 3,82 2,14%
2003Q2 20908 10,29% 19.568,40 4,29% 17631 7,13% 16.758,20 2,85% 9,8 -1,01% 10,06 -2,14% 3,7 -5,13% 3,70 -3,14%
2003Q3 20605 -1,45% 19.708,60 0,72% 17741 0,62% 16.925,00 1,00% 9,8 0,00% 9,96 -0,99% 3,3 -10,81% 3,64 -1,62%
2003Q4 22885 11,07% 20.680,40 4,93% 17516 -1,27% 17.008,40 0,49% 10 2,04% 9,90 -0,60% 3,1 -6,06% 3,50 -3,85%
2004Q1 20617 -9,91% 20.794,40 0,55% 16546 -5,54% 17.178,40 1,00% 10,8 8,00% 10,06 1,62% 2,9 -6,45% 3,38 -3,43%
2004Q2 26397 28,04% 22.282,40 7,16% 19370 17,07% 17.760,80 3,39% 10,5 -2,78% 10,18 1,19% 3 3,45% 3,20 -5,33%
2004Q3 21544 -18,38% 22.409,60 0,57% 19554 0,95% 18.145,40 2,17% 10,6 0,95% 10,34 1,57% 2,9 -3,33% 3,04 -5,00%
2004Q4 23679 9,91% 23.024,40 2,74% 19666 0,57% 18.530,40 2,12% 10,5 -0,94% 10,48 1,35% 3,1 6,90% 3,00 -1,32%
2005Q1 19981 -15,62% 22.443,60 -2,52% 17027 -13,42% 18.432,60 -0,53% 10,1 -3,81% 10,50 0,19% 2,8 -9,68% 2,94 -2,00%
2005Q2 25925 29,75% 23.505,20 4,73% 19524 14,66% 19.028,20 3,23% 10 -0,99% 10,34 -1,52% 3,2 14,29% 3,00 2,04%
2005Q3 20598 -20,55% 22.345,40 -4,93% 20202 3,47% 19.194,60 0,87% 10,1 1,00% 10,26 -0,77% 3,8 18,75% 3,16 5,33%
2005Q4 24274 17,85% 22.891,40 2,44% 21696 7,40% 19.623,00 2,23% 9,7 -3,96% 10,08 -1,75% 3,5 -7,89% 3,28 3,80%
2006Q1 21483 -11,50% 22.452,20 -1,92% 19457 -10,32% 19.581,20 -0,21% 9,4 -3,09% 9,86 -2,18% 3,3 -5,71% 3,32 1,22%
2006Q2 27945 30,08% 24.045,00 7,09% 22078 13,47% 20.591,40 5,16% 9,2 -2,13% 9,68 -1,83% 3,4 3,03% 3,44 3,61%
2006Q3 22282 -20,26% 23.316,40 -3,03% 21368 -3,22% 20.960,20 1,79% 8,9 -3,26% 9,46 -2,27% 3,1 -8,82% 3,42 -0,58%
2006Q4 26582 19,30% 24.513,20 5,13% 22435 4,99% 21.406,80 2,13% 8,8 -1,12% 9,20 -2,75% 3,2 3,23% 3,30 -3,51%

xxx
2007Q1 24202 -8,95% 24.498,80 -0,06% 20776 -7,39% 21.222,80 -0,86% 8,7 -1,14% 9,00 -2,17% 2,8 -12,50% 3,16 -4,24%
2007Q2 31061 28,34% 26.414,40 7,82% 23867 14,88% 22.104,80 4,16% 8,5 -2,30% 8,82 -2,00% 2,6 -7,14% 3,02 -4,43%
2007Q3 24918 -19,78% 25.809,00 -2,29% 23134 -3,07% 22.316,00 0,96% 8,4 -1,18% 8,66 -1,81% 3 15,38% 2,94 -2,65%
2007Q4 29347 17,77% 27.222,00 5,47% 26144 13,01% 23.271,20 4,28% 8,1 -3,57% 8,50 -1,85% 3,9 30,00% 3,10 5,44%
2008Q1 26986 -8,05% 27.302,80 0,30% 21973 -15,95% 23.178,80 -0,40% 7,8 -3,70% 8,30 -2,35% 4,4 12,82% 3,34 7,74%
2008Q2 35325 30,90% 29.527,40 8,15% 25918 17,95% 24.207,20 4,44% 7,6 -2,56% 8,08 -2,65% 4,9 11,36% 3,76 12,57%
2008Q3 28116 -20,41% 28.938,40 -1,99% 24337 -6,10% 24.301,20 0,39% 7,8 2,63% 7,94 -1,73% 4,7 -4,08% 4,18 11,17%
2008Q4 32614 16,00% 30.477,60 5,32% 26188 7,61% 24.912,00 2,51% 8 2,56% 7,86 -1,01% 2,2 -53,19% 4,02 -3,83%
2009Q1 28036 -14,04% 30.215,40 -0,86% 19521 -25,46% 23.587,40 -5,32% 8,9 11,25% 8,02 2,04% 1,5 -31,82% 3,54 -11,94%
2009Q2 32538 16,06% 31.325,80 3,67% 23575 20,77% 23.907,80 1,36% 9,3 4,49% 8,32 3,74% 0,7 -53,33% 2,80 -20,90%
2009Q3 29905 -8,09% 30.241,80 -3,46% 21738 -7,79% 23.071,80 -3,50% 9,9 6,45% 8,78 5,53% 0,7 0,00% 1,96 -30,00%
2009Q4 37990 27,04% 32.216,60 6,53% 27654 27,22% 23.735,20 2,88% 10,4 5,05% 9,30 5,92% 2,5 257,14% 1,52 -22,45%
2010Q1 28984 -23,71% 31.490,60 -2,25% 20300 -26,59% 22.557,60 -4,96% 11,3 8,65% 9,96 7,10% 3,9 56,00% 1,86 22,37%
2010Q2 28238 -2,57% 31.531,00 0,13% 22469 10,68% 23.147,20 2,61% 12,3 8,85% 10,64 6,83% 5,2 33,33% 2,60 39,78%
2010Q3 27611 -2,22% 30.545,60 -3,13% 22320 -0,66% 22.896,20 -1,08% 13,1 6,50% 11,40 7,14% 5,7 9,62% 3,60 38,46%
2010Q4 33857 22,62% 31.336,00 2,59% 28292 26,76% 24.207,00 5,72% 14,2 8,40% 12,26 7,54% 5,2 -8,77% 4,50 25,00%
2011Q1 24236 -28,42% 28.585,20 -8,78% 20042 -29,16% 22.684,60 -6,29% 15,6 9,86% 13,30 8,48% 4,3 -17,31% 4,86 8,00%
2011Q2 28227 16,47% 28.433,80 -0,53% 20855 4,06% 22.795,60 0,49% 16,9 8,33% 14,42 8,42% 3,1 -27,91% 4,70 -3,29%
2011Q3 27599 -2,22% 28.306,00 -0,45% 22125 6,09% 22.726,80 -0,30% 18,5 9,47% 15,66 8,60% 2,9 -6,45% 4,24 -9,79%
2011Q4 32002 15,95% 29.184,20 3,10% 27762 25,48% 23.815,20 4,79% 20,7 11,89% 17,18 9,71% 2,2 -24,14% 3,54 -16,51%
2012Q1 23649 -26,10% 27.142,60 -7,00% 19713 -28,99% 22.099,40 -7,20% 22,3 7,73% 18,80 9,43% 1,3 -40,91% 2,76 -22,03%
2012Q2 25743 8,85% 27.444,00 1,11% 21814 10,66% 22.453,80 1,60% 24 7,62% 20,48 8,94% 1 -23,08% 2,10 -23,91%
2012Q3 28613 11,15% 27.521,20 0,28% 22377 2,58% 22.758,20 1,36% 25,4 5,83% 22,18 8,30% 0,3 -70,00% 1,54 -26,67%
2012Q4 28839 0,79% 27.769,20 0,90% 25814 15,36% 23.496,00 3,24% 26,2 3,15% 23,72 6,94% 0,3 0,00% 1,02 -33,77%
2013Q1 24090 -16,47% 26.186,80 -5,70% 17837 -30,90% 21.511,00 -8,45% 27,1 3,44% 25,00 5,40% -0,2 -166,67% 0,54 -47,06%

xxxi
2013Q2 34102 41,56% 28.277,40 7,98% 20119 12,79% 21.592,20 0,38% 27,5 1,48% 26,04 4,16% -0,2 0,00% 0,24 -55,56%
2013Q3 26076 -23,54% 28.344,00 0,24% 24467 21,61% 22.122,80 2,46% 27,6 0,36% 26,76 2,76% -1 400,00% - 0,16 -166,67%
2013Q4 28658 9,90% 28.353,00 0,03% 26487 8,26% 22.944,80 3,72% 27,6 0,00% 27,20 1,64% -1,8 80,00% - 0,58 262,50%
2014Q1 20486 -28,52% 26.682,40 -5,89% 17577 -33,64% 21.297,40 -7,18% 27,3 -1,09% 27,42 0,81% -1,5 -16,67% - 0,94 62,07%
2014Q2 22243 8,58% 26.313,00 -1,38% 20670 17,60% 21.864,00 2,66% 26,9 -1,47% 27,38 -0,15% -1,5 0,00% - 1,20 27,66%
2014Q3 21408 -3,75% 23.774,20 -9,65% 20693 0,11% 21.978,80 0,53% 26,2 -2,60% 27,12 -0,95% -1,1 -26,67% - 1,38 15,00%
2014Q4 25776 20,40% 23.714,20 -0,25% 24547 18,62% 21.994,80 0,07% 26 -0,76% 26,80 -1,18% -2,5 127,27% - 1,68 21,74%
2015Q1 20990 -18,57% 22.180,60 -6,47% 17042 -30,57% 20.105,80 -8,59% 25,8 -0,77% 26,44 -1,34% -1,9 -24,00% - 1,70 1,19%
2015Q2 21676 3,27% 22.418,60 1,07% 19814 16,27% 20.553,20 2,23% 24,9 -3,49% 25,96 -1,82% -1,1 -42,11% - 1,62 -4,71%
2015Q3 21010 -3,07% 22.172,00 -1,10% 19998 0,93% 20.418,80 -0,65% 24,7 -0,80% 25,52 -1,69% -0,8 -27,27% - 1,48 -8,64%
2015Q4 31660 50,69% 24.222,40 9,25% 28123 40,63% 21.904,80 7,28% 24,3 -1,62% 25,14 -1,49% 0,4 -150,00% - 1,18 -20,27%
2016Q1 19992 -36,85% 23.065,60 -4,78% 17957 -36,15% 20.586,80 -6,02% 24,1 -0,82% 24,76 -1,51% -0,7 -275,00% - 0,82 -30,51%
2016Q2 20308 1,58% 22.929,20 -0,59% 20391 13,55% 21.256,60 3,25% 23,6 -2,07% 24,32 -1,78% 0,2 -128,57% - 0,40 -51,22%
2016Q3 21143 4,11% 22.822,60 -0,46% 23589 15,68% 22.011,60 3,55% 23,2 -1,69% 23,98 -1,40% -0,1 -150,00% - 0,20 -50,00%
2016Q4 25711 21,61% 23.762,80 4,12% 25641 8,70% 23.140,20 5,13% 23,2 0,00% 23,68 -1,25% 0,3 -400,00% 0,02 -110,00%
2017Q1 19196 -25,34% 21.270,00 -10,49% 17605 -31,34% 21.036,60 -9,09% 22,5 -3,02% 23,32 -1,52% 1,7 466,67% 0,28 1300,00%
2017Q2 20422 6,39% 21.356,00 0,40% 20331 15,48% 21.511,40 2,26% 21,7 -3,56% 22,84 -2,06% 0,9 -47,06% 0,60 114,29%
2017Q3 20596 0,85% 21.413,60 0,27% 23560 15,88% 22.145,20 2,95% 21 -3,23% 22,32 -2,28% 1 11,11% 0,76 26,67%
2017Q4 25659 24,58% 22.316,80 4,22% 25400 7,81% 22.507,40 1,64% 20,9 -0,48% 21,86 -2,06% 1 0,00% 0,98 28,95%
2018Q1 19894 -22,47% 21.153,40 -5,21% 18965 -25,33% 21.172,20 -5,93% 20,3 -2,87% 21,28 -2,65% 0,2 -80,00% 0,96 -2,04%
2018Q2 20349 2,29% 21.384,00 1,09% 20210 6,56% 21.693,20 2,46% 19,5 -3,94% 20,68 -2,82% 1 400,00% 0,82 -14,58%
2018Q3 20877 2,59% 21.475,00 0,43% 23493 16,24% 22.325,60 2,92% 19 -2,56% 20,14 -2,61% 1,1 10,00% 0,86 4,88%
2018Q4 26017 24,62% 22.559,20 5,05% 26139 11,26% 22.841,40 2,31% 18,4 -3,16% 19,62 -2,58% 0,6 -45,45% 0,78 -9,30%
2019Q1 19777 -23,98% 21.382,80 -5,21% 17832 -31,78% 21.327,80 -6,63% 18,4 0,00% 19,12 -2,55% 1 66,67% 0,78 0,00%
2019Q2 22388 13,20% 21.881,60 2,33% 22284 24,97% 21.991,60 3,11% 17,2 -6,52% 18,50 -3,24% 0,2 -80,00% 0,78 0,00%

xxxii
2019Q3 21484 -4,04% 22.108,60 1,04% 23826 6,92% 22.714,80 3,29% 16,9 -1,74% 17,98 -2,81% 0,2 0,00% 0,62 -20,51%
2019Q4 24116 12,25% 22.756,40 2,93% 25922 8,80% 23.200,60 2,14% 16,6 -1,78% 17,50 -2,67% 1,1 450,00% 0,62 0,00%
2020Q1 20306 -15,80% 21.614,20 -5,02% 17331 -33,14% 21.439,00 -7,59% 15,9 -4,22% 17,00 -2,86% 0,2 -81,82% 0,54 -12,90%
2020Q2 23998 18,18% 22.458,40 3,91% 18099 4,43% 21.492,40 0,25% 16,8 5,66% 16,68 -1,88% -1,9 -1050,00% - 0,04 -107,41%
2020Q3 23911 -0,36% 22.763,00 1,36% 21413 18,31% 21.318,20 -0,81% 16,5 -1,79% 16,54 -0,84% -2,3 21,05% - 0,54 1250,00%
2020Q4 32430 35,63% 24.952,20 9,62% 27672 29,23% 22.087,40 3,61% 16 -3,03% 16,36 -1,09% -2,4 4,35% - 1,06 96,30%

xxxiii
Appendix III; Event study output
Table 6: Event Study 1st Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on TGEXP
Event t Date Country actual Country 5y MAV
Estimation
Window
Length
Pointer to end
of Estimation
Window
End of
Estimation
Window
Alpha Beta STEYX Actual
Variance
Estimated
Variance
Abnormal
Variance
t-values
1
-10 2007Q4
-0,05577 4,56726 0,06497
-0,261015 -1,247894 0,986879 15,189705
-9 2008Q1 -0,284166 -1,353630 1,069464 16,460827
-8 2008Q2 0,164672 0,696333 -0,531660 -8,183134
-7 2008Q3 -0,022248 -0,157383 0,135135 2,079950
-6 2008Q4 0,159535 0,672868 -0,513333 -7,901047
-5 2009Q1 -0,261015 -1,247894 0,986879 15,189705
-4 2009Q2 0,088545 0,348639 -0,260094 -4,003273
-3 2009Q3 0,111487 0,453419 -0,341933 -5,262910
-2 2009Q4 0,007899 -0,019695 0,027594 0,424711
-1 2010Q1 -0,164673 -0,807874 0,643201 9,899934
0 2010Q2 Greece TGEXP 30 3 2010Q2 -0,025738 -0,173323 0,147585 2,271580
1 2010Q3 -0,235353 -1,130688 0,895335 13,780695
2 2010Q4 0,099018 0,396473 -0,297455 -4,578321
3 2011Q1 -0,285156 -1,358152 1,072996 16,515196
4 2011Q2 0,085766 0,335946 -0,250180 -3,850685
5 2011Q3 -0,037540 -0,227224 0,189684 2,919558
6 2011Q4 0,204036 0,876116 -0,672080 -10,344431
7 2012Q1 -0,185677 -0,903804 0,718127 11,053169
8 2012Q2 0,032682 0,093499 -0,060817 -0,936067
9 2012Q3 -0,030725 -0,196100 0,165375 2,545390
10 2012Q4 0,506901 2,259383 -1,752482 -26,973605

xxxiv
Table 7: Event Study 2nd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on TGEXP
Estimation
Window
Length
Pointer to end
of Estimation
Window
End of
Estimation
Window
Variance
Estimated
Variance
Abnormal
Variance
t-values
1
-10 2009Q3
-0,02410 4,02640 0,08238
-0,261015 -1,075055 0,814040 9,881218
-9 2009Q4 -0,284166 -1,168270 0,884104 10,731686
-8 2010Q1 0,164672 0,638934 -0,474262 -5,756822
-7 2010Q2 -0,022248 -0,113684 0,091435 1,109888
-6 2010Q3 0,159535 0,618248 -0,458713 -5,568087
-5 2010Q4 -0,261015 -1,075055 0,814040 9,881218
-4 2011Q1 0,088545 0,332414 -0,243870 -2,960207
-3 2011Q2 0,111487 0,424787 -0,313300 -3,802991
-2 2011Q3 0,007899 0,007699 0,000199 0,002420
-1 2011Q4 -0,164673 -0,687143 0,522470 6,341997
0 2012Q1 Greece TGEXP 30 3 2012Q1 -0,261015 -1,075055 0,814040 9,881218
1 2012Q2 -0,235353 -0,971729 0,736376 8,938493
2 2012Q3 0,099018 0,374584 -0,275566 -3,344953
3 2012Q4 -0,285156 -1,172257 0,887101 10,768063
4 2013Q1 0,085766 0,321225 -0,235459 -2,858115
5 2013Q2 -0,037540 -0,175254 0,137714 1,671644
6 2013Q3 0,204036 0,797428 -0,593392 -7,202878
7 2013Q4 -0,185677 -0,771713 0,586036 7,113590
8 2014Q1 0,032682 0,107488 -0,074806 -0,908035
9 2014Q2 -0,030725 -0,147816 0,117090 1,421300
10 2014Q3 0,506901 2,016887 -1,509986 -18,328943

xxxv
Table 8: Event Study 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on TGEXP
Estimation
Window
Length
Pointer to end
of Estimation
Window
End of
Estimation
Window
Variance
Estimated
Variance
Abnormal
Variance
t-values
1
-10 2013Q1
0,00077 3,55461 0,10337
-0,261015 -0,927036 0,666021 6,442824
-9 2013Q2 -0,284166 -1,009329 0,725163 7,014933
-8 2013Q3 0,164672 0,586115 -0,421443 -4,076867
-7 2013Q4 -0,022248 -0,078314 0,056066 0,542361
-6 2014Q1 0,159535 0,567853 -0,408318 -3,949904
-5 2014Q2 -0,261015 -0,927036 0,666021 6,442824
-4 2014Q3 0,088545 0,315512 -0,226967 -2,195587
-3 2014Q4 0,111487 0,397060 -0,285574 -2,762527
-2 2015Q1 0,007899 0,028845 -0,020947 -0,202632
-1 2015Q2 -0,164673 -0,584578 0,419905 4,061994
0 2015Q3 Greece TGEXP 30 3 2015Q3 -0,030725 -0,108447 0,077722 0,751848
1 2015Q4 -0,235353 -0,835817 0,600465 5,808654
2 2016Q1 0,099018 0,352740 -0,253722 -2,454405
3 2016Q2 -0,285156 -1,012848 0,727692 7,039403
4 2016Q3 0,085766 0,305633 -0,219867 -2,126910
5 2016Q4 -0,037540 -0,132670 0,095130 0,920253
6 2017Q1 0,204036 0,726037 -0,522001 -5,049627
7 2017Q2 -0,185677 -0,659238 0,473562 4,581044
8 2017Q3 0,032682 0,116942 -0,084260 -0,815093
9 2017Q4 -0,030725 -0,108447 0,077722 0,751848
10 2018Q1 0,506901 1,802605 -1,295704 -12,534117

xxxvi
Table 9: Event Study 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme termination impact on TGEXP
Estimation
Window
Length
Pointer to end
of Estimation
Window
End of
Estimation
Window
Variance
Estimated
Variance
Abnormal
Variance
t-values
1
-10 2016Q1
0,00562 3,72199 0,10139
0,025947 0,102193 -0,076245 -0,751974
-9 2016Q2 -0,284166 -1,052044 0,767878 7,573228
-8 2016Q3 0,164672 0,618526 -0,453853 -4,476149
-7 2016Q4 -0,022248 -0,077190 0,054942 0,541866
-6 2017Q1 0,159535 0,599404 -0,439869 -4,338226
-5 2017Q2 -0,261015 -0,965877 0,704862 6,951728
-4 2017Q3 0,088545 0,335181 -0,246636 -2,432455
-3 2017Q4 0,111487 0,420569 -0,309083 -3,048340
-2 2018Q1 0,007899 0,035016 -0,027117 -0,267444
-1 2018Q2 -0,164673 -0,607293 0,442620 4,365356
0 2018Q3 Greece TGEXP 30 3 2018Q3 -0,025738 -0,090180 0,064442 0,635561
1 2018Q4 -0,235353 -0,870362 0,635010 6,262809
2 2019Q1 0,099018 0,374162 -0,275144 -2,713618
3 2019Q2 -0,285156 -1,055729 0,770573 7,599811
4 2019Q3 0,085766 0,324837 -0,239071 -2,357849
5 2019Q4 -0,037540 -0,134106 0,096566 0,952383
6 2020Q1 0,204036 0,765036 -0,561000 -5,532890
7 2020Q2 -0,185677 -0,685468 0,499792 4,929217
8 2020Q3 0,032682 0,127260 -0,094578 -0,932780
9 2020Q4 -0,030725 -0,108741 0,078016 0,769438
10 0 0,506901 1,892298 -1,385396 -13,663531

xxxvii
Table 10: Event Study 1st Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on TGREV
t Date Country actual Country 5y MAV
Estimation
Window
Length
Pointer to end of
Estimation
Window
End of Estimation
Window
Variance
Estimated
Variance
Abnormal
Variance
t-values
-10 2007Q4
-0,03577 4,36964 0,06866
0,162444 0,674051 -0,511607 -7,451778
-9 2008Q1 -0,291602 -1,309969 1,018368 14,832971
-8 2008Q2 0,040565 0,141481 -0,100916 -1,469888
-7 2008Q3 0,060897 0,230324 -0,169427 -2,467782
-6 2008Q4 0,254780 1,077524 -0,822744 -11,983628
-5 2009Q1 -0,289929 -1,302658 1,012729 14,750851
-4 2009Q2 0,106579 0,429941 -0,323362 -4,709908
-3 2009Q3 0,025809 0,077004 -0,051195 -0,745673
-2 2009Q4 0,153595 0,635384 -0,481788 -7,017460
-1 2010Q1 -0,309018 -1,386073 1,077055 15,687779
0 2010Q2 Greece TGREV 30 3 2010Q2 0,106847 0,431112 -0,324264 -4,723055
1 2010Q3 0,216114 0,908569 -0,692455 -10,085910
2 2010Q4 0,082560 0,324986 -0,242426 -3,531035
3 2011Q1 -0,336391 -1,505684 1,169292 17,031259
4 2011Q2 0,175969 0,733147 -0,557179 -8,115553
5 2011Q3 0,001113 -0,030911 0,032023 0,466435
6 2011Q4 0,186247 0,778058 -0,591812 -8,619999
7 2012Q1 -0,305740 -1,371748 1,066008 15,526876
8 2012Q2 0,162657 0,674980 -0,512323 -7,462214
9 2012Q3 0,009286 0,004805 0,004481 0,065270
10 2012Q4 0,406291 1,739573 -1,333282 -19,419841

xxxviii
Table 11: Event Study 2nd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on TGREV
Estimation
Window
Length
Pointer to end of
Estimation
Window
End of Estimation
Window
Variance
Estimated
Variance
Abnormal
Variance
t-values
-10 2009Q3
-0,02319 4,26805 0,06781
0,162444 0,670129 -0,507685 -7,486579
-9 2009Q4 -0,291602 -1,267761 0,976159 14,394939
-8 2010Q1 0,040565 0,149942 -0,109377 -1,612928
-7 2010Q2 0,060897 0,236719 -0,175822 -2,592766
-6 2010Q3 0,254780 1,064221 -0,809441 -11,936428
-5 2010Q4 -0,289929 -1,260620 0,970691 14,314304
-4 2011Q1 0,106579 0,431695 -0,325116 -4,794322
-3 2011Q2 0,025809 0,086964 -0,061155 -0,901817
-2 2011Q3 0,153595 0,632361 -0,478766 -7,060120
-1 2011Q4 -0,309018 -1,342095 1,033077 15,234280
0 2012Q1 Greece TGREV 30 3 2012Q1 -0,289929 -1,260620 0,970691 14,314304
1 2012Q2 0,216114 0,899194 -0,683080 -10,073048
2 2012Q3 0,082560 0,329180 -0,246620 -3,636780
3 2012Q4 -0,336391 -1,458925 1,122534 16,553450
4 2013Q1 0,175969 0,727851 -0,551883 -8,138344
5 2013Q2 0,001113 -0,018442 0,019554 0,288358
6 2013Q3 0,186247 0,771718 -0,585472 -8,633662
7 2013Q4 -0,305740 -1,328103 1,022363 15,076288
8 2014Q1 0,162657 0,671037 -0,508380 -7,496826
9 2014Q2 0,009286 0,016444 -0,007158 -0,105549
10 2014Q3 0,406291 1,710877 -1,304586 -19,238086

xxxix
Table 12: Event Study 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on TGREV
Estimation
Window
Length
Pointer to end of
Estimation
Window
End of Estimation
Window
Variance
Estimated
Variance
Abnormal
Variance
t-values
-10 2013Q1
-0,00527 4,10772 0,07304
0,162444 0,662002 -0,499558 -6,839969
-9 2013Q2 -0,291602 -1,203093 0,911492 12,480189
-8 2013Q3 0,040565 0,161355 -0,120790 -1,653863
-7 2013Q4 0,060897 0,244872 -0,183976 -2,519006
-6 2014Q1 0,254780 1,041290 -0,786510 -10,768938
-5 2014Q2 -0,289929 -1,196220 0,906292 12,408993
-4 2014Q3 0,106579 0,432524 -0,325945 -4,462856
-3 2014Q4 0,025809 0,100743 -0,074933 -1,025992
-2 2015Q1 0,153595 0,625652 -0,472057 -6,463430
-1 2015Q2 -0,309018 -1,274635 0,965617 13,221280
0 2015Q3 Greece TGREV 30 3 2015Q3 0,009286 0,032872 -0,023585 -0,322931
1 2015Q4 0,216114 0,882463 -0,666348 -9,123677
2 2016Q1 0,082560 0,333860 -0,251300 -3,440812
3 2016Q2 -0,336391 -1,387076 1,050685 14,386034
4 2016Q3 0,175969 0,717556 -0,541587 -7,415441
5 2016Q4 0,001113 -0,000703 0,001816 0,024866
6 2017Q1 0,186247 0,759775 -0,573528 -7,852780
7 2017Q2 -0,305740 -1,261169 0,955429 13,081783
8 2017Q3 0,162657 0,662875 -0,500218 -6,849017
9 2017Q4 0,009286 0,032872 -0,023585 -0,322931
10 2018Q1 0,406291 1,663655 -1,257364 -17,215894

xl
Table 13: Event Study 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme termination impact on TGREV
Estimation
Window
Length
Pointer to end
of Estimation
Window
End of
Estimation
Window
Variance
Estimated
Variance
Abnormal
Variance
t-values
1
-10 2016Q1
-0,00398 4,18467 0,07175
0,162444 0,675800 -0,513356 -7,154411
-9 2016Q2 -0,291602 -1,224234 0,932632 12,997676
-8 2016Q3 0,040565 0,165774 -0,125210 -1,744991
-7 2016Q4 0,060897 0,250857 -0,189960 -2,647386
-6 2017Q1 0,254780 1,062193 -0,807414 -11,252561
-5 2017Q2 -0,289929 -1,217232 0,927304 12,923415
-4 2017Q3 0,106579 0,442024 -0,335444 -4,674939
-3 2017Q4 0,025809 0,104027 -0,078218 -1,090083
-2 2018Q1 0,153595 0,638770 -0,485174 -6,761657
-1 2018Q2 -0,309018 -1,297116 0,988098 13,770679
0 2018Q3 Greece TGREV 30 3 2018Q3 0,106847 0,443145 -0,336298 -4,686828
1 2018Q4 0,216114 0,900391 -0,684277 -9,536455
2 2019Q1 0,082560 0,341511 -0,258951 -3,608885
3 2019Q2 -0,336391 -1,411664 1,075272 14,985587
4 2019Q3 0,175969 0,732395 -0,556426 -7,754663
5 2019Q4 0,001113 0,000680 0,000432 0,006025
6 2020Q1 0,186247 0,775405 -0,589158 -8,210833
7 2020Q2 -0,305740 -1,283398 0,977658 13,625174
8 2020Q3 0,162657 0,676690 -0,514033 -7,163848
9 2020Q4 0,009286 0,034884 -0,025598 -0,356748
10 0 0,406291 1,696217 -1,289926 -17,977124

xli
Table 14: Event Study 1st Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on UNEMP
Estimation
Window
Length
Pointer to end of
Estimation
Window
End of Estimation
Window
Variance
Estimated
Variance
Abnormal
Variance
t-values
-10 2007Q4
0,00621 1,13360 0,02709
-0,025641 -0,022852 -0,002789 -0,102948
-9 2008Q1 0,098592 0,117978 -0,019386 -0,715558
-8 2008Q2 0,083333 0,100681 -0,017348 -0,640318
-7 2008Q3 0,094675 0,113538 -0,018863 -0,696243
-6 2008Q4 0,118919 0,141021 -0,022102 -0,815796
-5 2009Q1 0,077295 0,093836 -0,016541 -0,610540
-4 2009Q2 0,076233 0,092632 -0,016399 -0,605306
-3 2009Q3 0,058333 0,072341 -0,014008 -0,517039
-2 2009Q4 0,031496 0,041919 -0,010422 -0,384700
-1 2010Q1 0,034351 0,045155 -0,010804 -0,398779
0 2010Q2 Greece UNEMP 30 3 2010Q2 0,088496 0,106533 -0,018037 -0,665774
1 2010Q3 0,003636 0,010337 -0,006700 -0,247319
2 2010Q4 0,000000 0,006215 -0,006215 -0,229388
3 2011Q1 -0,010870 -0,006107 -0,004763 -0,175788
4 2011Q2 -0,014652 -0,010395 -0,004257 -0,157136
5 2011Q3 -0,026022 -0,023284 -0,002738 -0,101068
6 2011Q4 -0,007634 -0,002439 -0,005195 -0,191745
7 2012Q1 -0,007692 -0,002505 -0,005187 -0,191456
8 2012Q2 -0,034884 -0,033329 -0,001554 -0,057371
9 2012Q3 -0,008032 -0,002891 -0,005142 -0,189780
10 2012Q4 -0,016194 -0,012143 -0,004051 -0,149531

xlii
Table 15: Event Study 2nd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on UNEMP
Estimation
Window
Length
Pointer to end of
Estimation
Window
End of Estimation
Window
Variance
Estimated
Variance
Abnormal
Variance
t-values
-10 2009Q3
0,00527 1,03779 0,02517
-0,025641 -0,021340 -0,004301 -0,170846
-9 2009Q4 0,098592 0,107587 -0,008996 -0,357375
-8 2010Q1 0,083333 0,091752 -0,008419 -0,334465
-7 2010Q2 0,094675 0,103522 -0,008848 -0,351494
-6 2010Q3 0,118919 0,128683 -0,009764 -0,387895
-5 2010Q4 0,077295 0,085486 -0,008191 -0,325399
-4 2011Q1 0,076233 0,084384 -0,008151 -0,323805
-3 2011Q2 0,058333 0,065808 -0,007474 -0,296929
-2 2011Q3 0,031496 0,037956 -0,006460 -0,256634
-1 2011Q4 0,034351 0,040919 -0,006568 -0,260921
0 2012Q1 Greece UNEMP 30 3 2012Q1 0,077295 0,085486 -0,008191 -0,325399
1 2012Q2 0,003636 0,009043 -0,005407 -0,214805
2 2012Q3 0,000000 0,005270 -0,005270 -0,209345
3 2012Q4 -0,010870 -0,006011 -0,004859 -0,193025
4 2013Q1 -0,014652 -0,009936 -0,004716 -0,187346
5 2013Q2 -0,026022 -0,021736 -0,004286 -0,170274
6 2013Q3 -0,007634 -0,002652 -0,004981 -0,197883
7 2013Q4 -0,007692 -0,002713 -0,004979 -0,197795
8 2014Q1 -0,034884 -0,030933 -0,003951 -0,156969
9 2014Q2 -0,008032 -0,003066 -0,004966 -0,197285
10 2014Q3 -0,016194 -0,011537 -0,004658 -0,185030

xliii
Table 16: Event Study 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on UNEMP
Estimation
Window
Length
Pointer to end of
Estimation
Window
End of Estimation
Window
Variance
Estimated
Variance
Abnormal
Variance
t-values
-10 2013Q1
0,00099 0,96358 0,02431
-0,025641 -0,023720 -0,001921 -0,079002
-9 2013Q2 0,098592 0,095987 0,002604 0,107124
-8 2013Q3 0,083333 0,081285 0,002049 0,084264
-7 2013Q4 0,094675 0,092213 0,002462 0,101255
-6 2014Q1 0,118919 0,115574 0,003345 0,137578
-5 2014Q2 0,077295 0,075466 0,001829 0,075217
-4 2014Q3 0,076233 0,074443 0,001790 0,073626
-3 2014Q4 0,058333 0,057195 0,001138 0,046809
-2 2015Q1 0,031496 0,031336 0,000160 0,006601
-1 2015Q2 0,034351 0,034087 0,000264 0,010879
0 2015Q3 Greece UNEMP 30 3 2015Q3 -0,008032 -0,006753 -0,001279 -0,052620
1 2015Q4 0,003636 0,004491 -0,000854 -0,035139
2 2016Q1 0,000000 0,000987 -0,000987 -0,040587
3 2016Q2 -0,010870 -0,009487 -0,001383 -0,056871
4 2016Q3 -0,014652 -0,013132 -0,001520 -0,062538
5 2016Q4 -0,026022 -0,024088 -0,001934 -0,079573
6 2017Q1 -0,007634 -0,006369 -0,001265 -0,052023
7 2017Q2 -0,007692 -0,006425 -0,001267 -0,052111
8 2017Q3 -0,034884 -0,032626 -0,002257 -0,092849
9 2017Q4 -0,008032 -0,006753 -0,001279 -0,052620
10 2018Q1 -0,016194 -0,014618 -0,001577 -0,064849

xliv
Table 17: Event Study 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme termination impact on UNEMP
Estimation
Window
Length
Pointer to end
of Estimation
Window
End of
Estimation
Window
Variance
Estimated
Variance
Abnormal
Variance
t-values
1
-10 2016Q1
0,00014 0,97861 0,02231
-0,025641 -0,024952 -0,000689 -0,030880
-9 2016Q2 0,098592 0,096624 0,001968 0,088195
-8 2016Q3 0,083333 0,081692 0,001641 0,073570
-7 2016Q4 0,094675 0,092791 0,001884 0,084441
-6 2017Q1 0,118919 0,116516 0,002402 0,107679
-5 2017Q2 0,077295 0,075782 0,001512 0,067782
-4 2017Q3 0,076233 0,074744 0,001490 0,066765
-3 2017Q4 0,058333 0,057227 0,001107 0,049608
-2 2018Q1 0,031496 0,030963 0,000533 0,023885
-1 2018Q2 0,034351 0,033757 0,000594 0,026621
0 2018Q3 Greece UNEMP 30 3 2018Q3 0,088496 0,086744 0,001752 0,078518
1 2018Q4 0,003636 0,003699 -0,000063 -0,002818
2 2019Q1 0,000000 0,000141 -0,000141 -0,006304
3 2019Q2 -0,010870 -0,010496 -0,000373 -0,016722
4 2019Q3 -0,014652 -0,014198 -0,000454 -0,020347
5 2019Q4 -0,026022 -0,025325 -0,000697 -0,031246
6 2020Q1 -0,007634 -0,007330 -0,000304 -0,013620
7 2020Q2 -0,007692 -0,007387 -0,000305 -0,013677
8 2020Q3 -0,034884 -0,033997 -0,000887 -0,039739
9 2020Q4 -0,008032 -0,007720 -0,000312 -0,014002
10 0 -0,016194 -0,015707 -0,000487 -0,021826

xlv
Table 18: Event Study 1st Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on HICP
Estimation
Window
Length
Pointer to end
of Estimation
Window
End of
Estimation
Window
Variance
Estimated
Variance
Abnormal
Variance
t-values
1
-10 2007Q4
0,07682 -0,15652 0,50996
0,100000 0,061166 0,038834 0,076150
-9 2008Q1 -0,173077 0,103908 -0,276985 -0,543150
-8 2008Q2 -0,279070 0,120498 -0,399568 -0,783526
-7 2008Q3 -0,064516 0,086916 -0,151432 -0,296949
-6 2008Q4 -0,241379 0,114599 -0,355978 -0,698050
-5 2009Q1 -0,409091 0,140849 -0,549940 -1,078396
-4 2009Q2 -0,230769 0,112938 -0,343708 -0,673988
-3 2009Q3 -0,700000 0,186383 -0,886383 -1,738137
-2 2009Q4 0,000000 0,076818 -0,076818 -0,150635
-1 2010Q1 -1,666667 0,337686 -2,004353 -3,930401
0 2010Q2 Greece HICP 30 3 2010Q2 0,333333 0,024645 0,308689 0,605318
1 2010Q3 4,000000 -0,549264 4,549264 8,920802
2 2010Q4 0,800000 -0,048398 0,848398 1,663652
3 2011Q1 -0,166667 0,102905 -0,269572 -0,528612
4 2011Q2 0,000000 0,076818 -0,076818 -0,150635
5 2011Q3 -0,266667 0,118557 -0,385224 -0,755398
6 2011Q4 1,272727 -0,122390 1,395117 2,735731
7 2012Q1 -0,240000 0,114383 -0,354383 -0,694922
8 2012Q2 -0,421053 0,142722 -0,563774 -1,105524
9 2012Q3 -0,272727 0,119506 -0,392233 -0,769143
10 2012Q4 -1,500000 0,311599 -1,811599 -3,552424

xlvi
Table 19: Event Study 2nd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on HICP
Estimation
Window
Length
Pointer to end
of Estimation
Window
End of
Estimation
Window
Variance
Estimated
Variance
Abnormal
Variance
t-values
1
-10 2009Q3
0,03407 0,07543 0,47396
0,100000 0,041616 0,058384 0,123183
-9 2009Q4 -0,173077 0,021017 -0,194094 -0,409516
-8 2010Q1 -0,279070 0,013022 -0,292091 -0,616279
-7 2010Q2 -0,064516 0,029206 -0,093722 -0,197743
-6 2010Q3 -0,241379 0,015865 -0,257244 -0,542755
-5 2010Q4 -0,409091 0,003214 -0,412305 -0,869915
-4 2011Q1 -0,230769 0,016665 -0,247434 -0,522058
-3 2011Q2 -0,700000 -0,018730 -0,681270 -1,437400
-2 2011Q3 0,000000 0,034073 -0,034073 -0,071890
-1 2011Q4 -1,666667 -0,091649 -1,575017 -3,323105
0 2012Q1 Greece HICP 30 3 2012Q1 -0,409091 0,003214 -0,412305 -0,869915
1 2012Q2 4,000000 0,335806 3,664194 7,731028
2 2012Q3 0,800000 0,094419 0,705581 1,488694
3 2012Q4 -0,166667 0,021501 -0,188167 -0,397011
4 2013Q1 0,000000 0,034073 -0,034073 -0,071890
5 2013Q2 -0,266667 0,013957 -0,280624 -0,592084
6 2013Q3 1,272727 0,130079 1,142649 2,410857
7 2013Q4 -0,240000 0,015969 -0,255969 -0,540065
8 2014Q1 -0,421053 0,002311 -0,423364 -0,893249
9 2014Q2 -0,272727 0,013500 -0,286227 -0,603907
10 2014Q3 -1,500000 -0,079077 -1,420923 -2,997984

xlvii
Table 20: Event Study 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on HICP
Estimation
Window
Length
Pointer to end
of Estimation
Window
End of
Estimation
Window
Variance
Estimated
Variance
Abnormal
Variance
t-values
1
-10 2013Q1
0,06614 -0,28278 0,75651
0,100000 0,037858 0,062142 0,082143
-9 2013Q2 -0,173077 0,115078 -0,288155 -0,380902
-8 2013Q3 -0,279070 0,145050 -0,424120 -0,560629
-7 2013Q4 -0,064516 0,084379 -0,148896 -0,196820
-6 2014Q1 -0,241379 0,134392 -0,375772 -0,496719
-5 2014Q2 -0,409091 0,181817 -0,590908 -0,781100
-4 2014Q3 -0,230769 0,131392 -0,362161 -0,478728
-3 2014Q4 -0,700000 0,264080 -0,964080 -1,274382
-2 2015Q1 0,000000 0,066136 -0,066136 -0,087423
-1 2015Q2 -1,666667 0,537431 -2,204098 -2,913517
0 2015Q3 Greece HICP 30 3 2015Q3 -0,272727 0,143257 -0,415984 -0,549874
1 2015Q4 4,000000 -1,064974 5,064974 6,695205
2 2016Q1 0,800000 -0,160086 0,960086 1,269103
3 2016Q2 -0,166667 0,113265 -0,279932 -0,370032
4 2016Q3 0,000000 0,066136 -0,066136 -0,087423
5 2016Q4 -0,266667 0,141543 -0,408210 -0,539598
6 2017Q1 1,272727 -0,293763 1,566490 2,070686
7 2017Q2 -0,240000 0,134002 -0,374002 -0,494380
8 2017Q3 -0,421053 0,185200 -0,606253 -0,801383
9 2017Q4 -0,272727 0,143257 -0,415984 -0,549874
10 2018Q1 -1,500000 0,490302 -1,990302 -2,630908

xlviii
Table 21: Event Study 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme termination impact on HICP
Estimation
Window
Length
Pointer to end
of Estimation
Window
End of
Estimation
Window
Variance
Estimated
Variance
Abnormal
Variance
t-values
1
-10 2016Q1
-0,06515 0,34783 1,10361
0,100000 -0,030367 0,130367 0,118128
-9 2016Q2 -0,173077 -0,125352 -0,047725 -0,043245
-8 2016Q3 -0,279070 -0,162219 -0,116850 -0,105880
-7 2016Q4 -0,064516 -0,087591 0,023075 0,020908
-6 2017Q1 -0,241379 -0,149109 -0,092270 -0,083607
-5 2017Q2 -0,409091 -0,207445 -0,201646 -0,182715
-4 2017Q3 -0,230769 -0,145419 -0,085350 -0,077337
-3 2017Q4 -0,700000 -0,308632 -0,391368 -0,354625
-2 2018Q1 0,000000 -0,065150 0,065150 0,059033
-1 2018Q2 -1,666667 -0,644869 -1,021797 -0,925867
0 2018Q3 Greece HICP 30 3 2018Q3 0,333333 0,050794 0,282539 0,256014
1 2018Q4 4,000000 1,326177 2,673823 2,422796
2 2019Q1 0,800000 0,213115 0,586885 0,531786
3 2019Q2 -0,166667 -0,123122 -0,043545 -0,039457
4 2019Q3 0,000000 -0,065150 0,065150 0,059033
5 2019Q4 -0,266667 -0,157905 -0,108762 -0,098551
6 2020Q1 1,272727 0,377545 0,895182 0,811140
7 2020Q2 -0,240000 -0,148630 -0,091370 -0,082792
8 2020Q3 -0,421053 -0,211605 -0,209447 -0,189784
9 2020Q4 -0,272727 -0,160013 -0,112714 -0,102132
10 0 -1,500000 -0,586898 -0,913102 -0,827377

xlix
Table 22: Event Study Initiation of ECB purchasing Greek banks bonds impact on UNEMP
Estimation
Window
Length
Pointer to end of
Estimation
Window
End of Estimation
Window
Variance
Estimated
Variance
Abnormal
Variance
t-values
-10 2011Q4
0,00163 0,95455 0,02528
-0,025641 -0,022847 -0,002794 -0,110533
-9 2012Q1 0,098592 0,095740 0,002852 0,112832
-8 2012Q2 0,083333 0,081175 0,002159 0,085398
-7 2012Q3 0,094675 0,092001 0,002674 0,105789
-6 2012Q4 0,118919 0,115143 0,003776 0,149379
-5 2013Q1 0,077295 0,075411 0,001884 0,074541
-4 2013Q2 0,076233 0,074397 0,001836 0,072632
-3 2013Q3 0,058333 0,057311 0,001022 0,040449
-2 2013Q4 0,031496 0,031693 -0,000197 -0,007803
-1 2014Q1 0,034351 0,034419 -0,000067 -0,002670
0 2014Q2 Greece UNEMP 30 3 2014Q2 -0,014652 -0,012358 -0,002294 -0,090775
1 2014Q3 0,003636 0,005100 -0,001463 -0,057894
2 2014Q4 0,000000 0,001629 -0,001629 -0,064432
3 2015Q1 -0,010870 -0,008747 -0,002123 -0,083975
4 2015Q2 -0,014652 -0,012358 -0,002294 -0,090775
5 2015Q3 -0,026022 -0,023211 -0,002811 -0,111218
6 2015Q4 -0,007634 -0,005658 -0,001975 -0,078156
7 2016Q1 -0,007692 -0,005714 -0,001978 -0,078262
8 2016Q2 -0,034884 -0,031670 -0,003214 -0,127151
9 2016Q3 -0,008032 -0,006039 -0,001994 -0,078873
10 2016Q4 -0,016194 -0,013830 -0,002365 -0,093548

l
Table 23: Event Study Initiation of ECB purchasing Greek banks bonds impact on HICP
Estimation
Window
Length
Pointer to end of
Estimation
Window
End of Estimation
Window
Variance
Estimated
Variance
Abnormal
Variance
t-values
-10 2011Q4
0,07007 -0,30705 0,76632
0,100000 0,039362 0,060638 0,079128
-9 2012Q1 -0,173077 0,123211 -0,296288 -0,386637
-8 2012Q2 -0,279070 0,155757 -0,434827 -0,567421
-7 2012Q3 -0,064516 0,089877 -0,154394 -0,201474
-6 2012Q4 -0,241379 0,144184 -0,385563 -0,503135
-5 2013Q1 -0,409091 0,195680 -0,604771 -0,789188
-4 2013Q2 -0,230769 0,140926 -0,371695 -0,485038
-3 2013Q3 -0,700000 0,285005 -0,985005 -1,285368
-2 2013Q4 0,000000 0,070068 -0,070068 -0,091434
-1 2014Q1 -1,666667 0,581823 -2,248489 -2,934135
0 2014Q2 Greece HICP 30 3 2014Q2 0,000000 0,070068 -0,070068 -0,091434
1 2014Q3 4,000000 -1,158145 5,158145 6,731049
2 2014Q4 0,800000 -0,175575 0,975575 1,273063
3 2015Q1 -0,166667 0,121243 -0,287910 -0,375704
4 2015Q2 0,000000 0,070068 -0,070068 -0,091434
5 2015Q3 -0,266667 0,151948 -0,418615 -0,546266
6 2015Q4 1,272727 -0,320727 1,593455 2,079356
7 2016Q1 -0,240000 0,143760 -0,383760 -0,500783
8 2016Q2 -0,421053 0,199353 -0,620406 -0,809590
9 2016Q3 -0,272727 0,153809 -0,426537 -0,556603
10 2016Q4 -1,500000 0,530647 -2,030647 -2,649865

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