Is solar poised to grow in the Midwest? This presentation to the Midwest Solar Expo by Institute for Local Self-Reliance Director of Democratic Energy John Farrell explains the enormous potential for solar, the favorable economics, and the opportunities for local action to make solar a reality.

1. H O T O R N O T ?
T H E M I D W E S T S O L A R M A R K E T
John Farrell
Director of Democratic Energy
May 16, 2014

2. Credit: Flickr user blmiers2
Big picture:
For years, solar was about remote power installations
and the environment

3. Now solar is about the economics

4. POTENTIAL PERCENT
OF ELECTRICITY FROM
LOCAL ROOFTOP SOLAR
50% or more
25 to 50%
10 to 25%
0 to 10%
20%
42%
31%
18%
23%
24%
19%
19%
28%
23%
24%
24%
26%
21%
12%
11%
52%
51%
49%
22%
23%
21%
23%
19%
14%
38%
41%
26%
35%
28%
19%
25%
21%
25%
24%
20%
22%
19%
23%
17%
23%
18% 20%
15%
24%
21%
18%
Residential and Commercial roofs
L O C A L S O L A R P O T E N T I A L
21%
23%
49%

5. S AV I N G W I T H S O L A R

6. 0¢
3¢
6¢
9¢
12¢
15¢
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
IA IL IN KS MI MN MO
ND NE OH SD WI Average
R I S I N G R E TA I L E L E C T R I C I T Y P R I C E S
(Residential, ¢ per kilowatt-hour)

7. 0¢
3¢
6¢
9¢
12¢
15¢
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Average of Midwest states
R I S I N G R E TA I L E L E C T R I C I T Y P R I C E S
4.7% per year
3% per year
(Residential, ¢ per kilowatt-hour)

8. 07 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
st states
R I C I T Y P R I C E S
4.7% per year

9. 07 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
st states
R I C I T Y P R I C E S
4.7% per year

10. 0¢
10¢
20¢
30¢
40¢
50¢
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Average Midwest residential retail electricity price
Levelized cost of solar electricity (Minneapolis)
Cost of solar with ITC
S O L A R PA R I T Y I S C O M I N G
4.7% per year
Subsidized Solar Parity
Unsubsidized Solar Parity
(¢ per kilowatt-hour)

11. POTENTIAL PERCENT
OF ELECTRICITY FROM
LOCAL ROOFTOP SOLAR
50% or more
25 to 50%
10 to 25%
0 to 10%
20%
42%
31%
18%
23%
24%
19%
19%
28%
23%
24%
24%
26%
21%
12%
11%
52%
51%
49%
22%
23%
21%
23%
19%
14%
38%
41%
26%
35%
28%
19%
25%
21%
25%
24%
20%
22%
19%
23%
17%
23%
18% 20%
15%
24%
21%
18%
Residential and Commercial roofs
L O C A L S O L A R P O T E N T I A L
21%
23%
49%

12. 8500
590
750 30,000
16,000
7200
11,000
1800
990
3600
12,000
780
7000
8200
5100
11,000
1900
26,000
2400
7300
5100
360
2600
1100
1200
800
1400
4800
1800
32,000
5000
580
970
2300
4100
4400
2900
7200
6800
2800
7100
11,000
11,000
550010,000
12,000
20
1140
700
4000
Residential and Commercial roofs
(Megawatts)
S O L A R PA R I T Y AT PA R I T Y ( 2 0 2 2 )
PERCENT OF SALES
1-5%
5-10%
10% or more
30,000
6 7 G I G AWAT T S
See ILSR’s Rooftop Revolution reports for data

13. VA L U E

14. $0.00
$0.03
$0.06
$0.08
$0.11
$0.14
Brown energy replacement
Avoided transmission losses
Environmental
Avoided transmission access
Local capacity value
L O C A L P O W E R VA L U E
(per kilowatt-hour)
Solar is valuable!
14.7¢

15. L O C A L P O W E R VA L U E
(economy)

16. Not local
0 25 50 75 100
very negative negative neutral positive very positive
L O C A L P O W E R VA L U E
(political)

17. Attitude towards increased use of local wind energy
Not local
0 25 50 75 100
very negative negative neutral positive very positive
-44%
+33%
+77% net approval
Local
Ownership
L O C A L P O W E R VA L U E
(political)

18. Other
54%
Individuals & Farmers
46%
Germany’s Energy Revolution Still People Powered
29,000 MW
27% renewable

19. G R E AT O P P O R T U N I T Y

20. I N S TA L L E D S O L A R C A PA C I T Y ( M W )
18
21
48
39
88
<1
<1
<1
<1
1
58
20
Sources: SEIA & ACORE
0 . 3 G I G AWAT T S

21. Solar standard (RPS)
Community solar
Value of solar
Net metering
State tax/cash incentives
Utility cash incentives
Property/sales tax benefit
N . D A K O TA
1 0 0 K W
Source: DSIRE
18
21
48
39
88
<1
<1
<1
<1
1
58
20
0¢
5¢
10¢
15¢
20¢
25¢
Residential retail electricity price
Value of solar
Solar price with ITC
Solar price

22. S . D A K O TA
Solar standard (RPS)
Community solar
Value of solar
Net metering
State tax/cash incentives
Utility cash incentives
Property/sales tax benefit
Source: DSIRE
18
21
48
39
88
<1
<1
<1
<1
1
58
20
0¢
5¢
10¢
15¢
20¢
25¢
Residential retail electricity price
Value of solar
Solar price with ITC
Solar price

23. N E B R A S K A
Solar standard (RPS)
Community solar
Value of solar
Net metering
State tax/cash incentives
Utility cash incentives
Property/sales tax benefit
2 5 K W
Source: DSIRE
18
21
48
39
88
<1
<1
<1
<1
1
58
20
0¢
5¢
10¢
15¢
20¢
25¢
Residential retail electricity price
Value of solar
Solar price with ITC
Solar price

24. K A N S A S
Solar standard (RPS)
Community solar
Value of solar
Net metering
State tax/cash incentives
Utility cash incentives
Property/sales tax benefit
2 5 / 2 0 0 K W
Source: DSIRE
18
21
48
39
88
<1
<1
<1
<1
1
58
20
0¢
5¢
10¢
15¢
20¢
25¢
Residential retail electricity price
Value of solar
Solar price with ITC
Solar price

25. I O WA
Solar standard (RPS)
Community solar
Value of solar
Net metering
State tax/cash incentives
Utility cash incentives
Property/sales tax benefit
5 0 0 K W
Source: DSIRE
18
21
48
39
88
<1
<1
<1
<1
1
58
20
0¢
5¢
10¢
15¢
20¢
25¢
Residential retail electricity price
Value of solar
Solar price with ITC
Solar price

26. W I S C O N S I N
Solar standard (RPS)
Community solar
Value of solar
Net metering
State tax/cash incentives
Utility cash incentives
Property/sales tax
2 0 / 1 0 0 K W
Source: DSIRE
18
21
48
39
88
<1
<1
<1
<1
1
58
20
0¢
5¢
10¢
15¢
20¢
25¢
Residential retail electricity price
Value of solar
Solar price with ITC
Solar price

27. 0¢
5¢
10¢
15¢
20¢
25¢
Residential retail electricity price
Value of solar
Solar price with ITC
Solar price
M I C H I G A N
Solar standard (RPS)*
Community solar
Value of solar
Net metering
State tax/cash incentives
Utility cash incentives
Property/sales tax
1 5 0 K W
*triple credit under RPS
Source: DSIRE
18
21
48
39
88
<1
<1
<1
<1
1
58
20

28. I N D I A N A
Solar standard (RPS)
Community solar
Value of solar
Net metering
State tax/cash incentives
Utility cash incentives
Property/sales tax
1 0 0 0 K W
Source: DSIRE
18
21
48
39
88
<1
<1
<1
<1
1
58
20
0¢
5¢
10¢
15¢
20¢
25¢
Residential retail electricity price
Value of solar
Solar price with ITC
Solar price

29. O H I O
Solar standard (RPS)
Community solar
Value of solar
Net metering
State tax/cash incentives
Utility cash incentives
Property/sales tax
U N L . K W
Source: DSIRE
18
21
48
39
88
<1
<1
<1
<1
1
58
20
0¢
5¢
10¢
15¢
20¢
25¢
Residential retail electricity price
Value of solar
Solar price with ITC
Solar price

30. I L L I N O I S
Solar standard (RPS)
Community solar
Value of solar
Net metering
State tax/cash incentives
Utility cash incentives
Property/sales tax
4 0 K W
Source: DSIRE
18
21
48
39
88
<1
<1
<1
<1
1
58
20
0¢
5¢
10¢
15¢
20¢
25¢
Residential retail electricity price
Value of solar
Solar price with ITC
Solar price

31. M I S S O U R I
Solar standard (RPS)
Community solar
Value of solar
Net metering
State tax/cash incentives
Utility cash incentives
Property/sales tax
1 0 0 K W
Source: DSIRE
18
21
48
39
88
<1
<1
<1
<1
1
58
20
0¢
5¢
10¢
15¢
20¢
25¢
Residential retail electricity price
Value of solar
Solar price with ITC
Solar price
?

32. M I N N E S O TA
Solar standard (RPS)
Community solar
Value of solar
Net metering
State tax/cash incentives
Utility cash incentives
Property/sales tax
1 0 0 0 K W
Source: DSIRE
18
21
48
39
88
<1
<1
<1
<1
1
58
20
0¢
5¢
10¢
15¢
20¢
25¢
Residential retail electricity price
Value of solar
Solar price with ITC
Solar price

33. L O C A L P O L I C Y

34. 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Installed Cost per Watt
$6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00
13%
15%
19%
26%
39%
5% 6%
8%
12%
22%
L O C A L P E R M I T T I N G
Data from The Impact of City-level Permitting Processes on Residential Photovoltaic Installation Prices and Development Times (LBNL, 2013)
...the savings
Approx.year for residential installation* 2013 2017 2023
*From ILSR’s Rooftop Revolution reports: http://www.ilsr.org/rooftop-revolution/
As the cost of solar falls...
from
permitting rise
streamlined

35. L O C A L P E R M I T T I N G
Leading Cities
Vote Solar: Project Permit

36. L O C A L E N E R G Y F I N A N C I N G
http://pacenow.org/

37. Active CCAs
No active CCAs
C O M M U N I T Y C H O I C E

38. F R A N C H I S E
LEVERAGE
UtilitiesCities

39. L O C A L P O W E R
S A N TA F EB O U L D E R
2x
Coal

40. T H A N K Y O U !
21%
http://www.ilsr.org/rooftop-revolution/