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GRIGGS REPORT

#129 - JANUARY 31, 2013

A TWICE MONTHLY REAL ESTATE MARKET PERSPECTIVE FOR NORTH KONA AND THE BIG ISLAND

PAGE 1
NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL DATA

ABOUT THE PENDING RATIO: The Pending Ratio is used throughout the report to serve as an indicator of Market Strength and Market Trend..
PENDING RATIO = NUMBER OF PENDING SALES DIVIDED BY ACTIVE LISTING TIMES 100 / THE HIGHER RATIO = STRONGER MARKET DEMAND.
Why it is a useful indicator:
1) It is a current leading indicator of market Demand vs. Supply Dynamics based on Listing and Pending Sale MLS Data.
2) It is a readily available useful indication or market strength when tract over time shows market trend.
The following Color Codes describe what the ratio numbers mean in terms of the type of market.
( This calibration is less accurate when there is an abnormal supply of distressed properties entering the market on a regular basis such as currently is the case. )
PEAK MARKET - Signals the End of the Real Estate Cycle is eminent
PENDING RATIO 100 or GREATER
PEAK
SELLERS MARKET PENDING RATIO FROM 51 TO 99
SELLER'S
NEUTRAL OR STABLE MARKET PENDING RATIO FROM 30 TO 50
NEUTRAL
BUYERS MARKET PENDING RATIO BELOW 30
BUYER'S

NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL DATA TABLE
TABLE 1

ACTIVE
LISTINGS

PENDING
SALES

PENDING
RATIO

1/31/1997
1/31/1998
1/31/1999
1/31/2000
1/31/2001
1/31/2002
1/31/2003
1/31/2004
1/31/2005
1/31/2006
1/31/2007
1/31/2008
1/31/2009
1/31/2010
1/31/2011
1/31/2012
1/31/2013

no data
374
305
192
290
no data
228
133
152
304
407
449
447
397
279
268
205

no data
63
73
106
134
129
133
151
155
119
77
77
41
82
105
97
120

no data
16.84
23.93
55.21
46.21
no data
58.33
113.53
101.97
39.14
18.92
17.15
9.17
20.65
37.63
36.19
58.54

2010/2011 %chg

-24%

24%

62%

to $4M

TYPE OF
MARKET

Num ber Sold Average
12 Month Period
Price

no data
BUYER'S
BUYER'S
SELLER'S
NEUTRAL

no data
SELLER'S
DEMAND PEAK
SELLER'S
NEUTRAL
PRICE PEAK >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>
BUYER'S
DEMAND LOW
BUYER'S
NEUTRAL
PRICE BOTTOM >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>
SELLER'S

252
246
330
441
447
519
529
660
683
648
474
394
234
283
357
402
420

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

4%

VOLUME
MILLIONS

273,700
283,000
268,900
313,700
360,400
354,900
372,800
456,000
585,100
737,200
753,200
718,900
664,100
500,900
467,900
457,100
514,200

12%

Inventory continues to be tight with a 24% decline from last year. All other stats continue to show improvement from a ye ar ago.
continue to show increase in almost each report.
The pending ratio has taken its seasonal turn upward due to increased number of pending sales and stable or declining invent ory.

Median
# SOLD
Price Last 30 days

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

69.0 $ 228,000
69.6 $ 237,000
88.7 $ 224,500
138.3 $ 246,000
161.1 $ 275,000
184.2 $ 275,000
197.2 $ 322,200
301.0 $ 395,500
399.6 $ 498,000
477.7 $ 625,000
357.0 $ 630,000
283.2 $ 603,500
155.4 $ 529,500
141.8 $ 420,000
167.0 $ 395,000

$
$

183.8
216.0

$ 368,500
$ 399,100

16
14
19
34
41
44
28
48
43
39
29
20
7
23
19
23
31

8%

35%

18%

Both Average and Median Price

Chart 1 - Kona Residential Median Price (thous) & Pending Ratio - Past 2 Years
70
60$395

Res-Median Price

Res Pending Ratio

$410

$400
$391

$393
$383 $385 $385 $385

50

40
30

$375

$369

$369

$369

$373
$365

$365

$399 $400
$390

$380
$370

20

$360

10

$350

0

$340

CHART 2 - N. Kona Residential Median Price vs Number Sold Since 1997
Median Price

Number Sold 12 Month Period

800

$700,000

700

$600,000

600

$500,000

500

$400,000

400

$300,000

300

200

$200,000

100

$100,000

0

CHART 2 -

$-

The growth in the number of home sales is remains relatively stable.
PAGE 2
NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE TABLE AND BIG ISLAND RESIDENTIAL LISTINGS, PENDING SALES AND SALES Year To Date
TABLE 2
KONA
Residential NUMBER
PRICE
RANGE
ACTIVE
TO
$
400,000
$ 401,000 $ 500,000
$ 501,000 $ 700,000
$701,000 $ 900,000
$ 901,000 $1,500,000
$1.5M
$ 4.0M
$4.001 M
or GREATER

NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA
NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA
AVERAGE
PRICE

NUMBER
PENDING

33
30
38
34

$
322,600
$
452,900
$
625,900
$
827,900
40 $ 1,165,300
30 $
2,278,500
36 $ 7,833,800

AVERAGE
PRICE

65
$304,800
21 $ 445,600
14 $ 600,000
12 $
783,100
5 $1,197,000
3 $ 2,716,700
5 $ 9,189,000

PENDING VOL
MILLIONS

$
$
$
$
$
$
$

KONA RES

2012
232
61
52
26
25
8
19

19.8
9.4
8.4
14.4
13.6
8.2
45.9

NUMBER SOLD PENDING
2013
RATIO

214
80
57
36
25
11
12

196.97
70.00
36.84
35.29
12.50
10.00
13.89

TABLE 2 - The under $400,000 inventory now stands at only 33 homes. ....WOW! The over $4.0M market has had quite a lift in its seasonal sales with decline in
inventory and nice spike in pending sales of 5 homes. This is up from 0 one month ago. Pink "Buyers" market is only indicated in 3 price ranges now, all above

CHART 3 - NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL NUMBER SOLD PAST 12 MONTHS
BY PRICE RANGE - Number, Percent of Total
11, 3% 12, 3%

TO $400,000

25, 6%

$401,000 $500,000
$501,000 $700,000

36, 8%

$701,000 $900,000
$901,000 $1,500,000
$1.5M $ 4.0M
$4.001 M or GREATER

214, 49%
57, 13%

80, 18%

TABLE 3
3-1 TO 3-4
ALL EAST HI
RESIDENTIAL
3-5 TO 3-9
ALL WEST HI
RESIDENTIAL
ALL BIG ISLE
ALL BIG ISLE
ALL BIG ISLE

BIG ISLE
R ES
ACTIVE
PENDING
SOLD YTD
ACTIVE
PENDING
SOLD YTD
ACTIVE
PENDING
SOLD YTD

BIG ISLAND LISTING, PENDING SALES AND SALES YEAR TO DATE
NUMBER

LOW
562

AVERAGE
MEDIAN
NORTH KONA HIGH
RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA

MODE

$25,500

$5,900,000

$374,694

$255,000 N/A

186

$42,000

$1,995,000

$240,703

$175,000 N/A

46

$46,500

$575,000

$221,767

$200,500

$230,000

655

$19,600

$25,000,000

$1,257,135

$519,000

$695,000

230

$30,000

$11,900,000

$644,924

$368,500

$399,000

VOLUME (M) PENDING
$
210.6
RATIO
$
44.8
$
10.2
33.10

55

$50,000

$3,300,000

$468,814

$350,000

$350,000

1217

$19,600

$25,000,000

$849,631

$369,000

$30,000

$11,900,000

$464,190

$266,500

$299,000

101

$46,500

$3,300,000

$356,298

$282,500

$230,000

148.3
25.8
$1,034

$
$

193.1
36.0

$299,000

416

$823

$
$

35.11
34.18

CHART 4 - West HI, East HI and Hawaii Island - Residential Pending Ratio
over the Past Two Years
45.00
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00

20.00
15.00

West Hawaii Ratio
East Hawaii Ratio
Big Is Res Ratio

10.00
5.00

-

CHART 4 - A seasonal increase in Pending Ratio is on cue with both East and West sides showing nice increase in Pending Ratio.
1/31/12

Island wide inventory is down 17% from
PAGE 3
CHART 5 - Percentage of ISLAND DISTRESSED RESIDENTIALsales Listings that are Short Sales or REO
BIG Total MLS Active, Pending or 90 PROPERTIES TREND
60.00%

50.00%

40.00%

N. KONA 3-7
WAIKOLOA 3-6-8

30.00%

WAIMEA 3-6-4,5,6
S HILO 3-2

PUNA 3-1
20.00%

10.00%

0.00%

CHART 3: THIS CHART IS PROBABLY THE BEST INDICATOR OF THE ISLAND WIDE DESTRESSED PROPERTY TREND.

All market areas covered showed declines in the percentage of MLS listing that are either REO or Short Sales.

Chart 6 - Number of REO Properties By District , Owned by:
Fed. National Mortgage Assn. (FANNIE MAE), Deutsche Bank, Wells Fargo & Bank of America
# of REO Properties

60
Puna
50

S Hilo
40

30

S Kohala

20

10

01/31/12

02/29/12

03/31/12

04/30/12

05/31/12

06/30/12

07/31/12

08/31/12

09/30/12

10/31/12

11/30/12

12/31/12

N Kona

S Kona, Kau

0
01/31/13

CHART 4:
THIS CHART LOOKS AT THE FORECLOSURE TREND AS REFLECTED IN THE NUMBER OF Fannie Mae, Deutsche Bank, Wells Fargo and
Bank of America OWNED PROPERTIES.
MUCH OF THE DECLINE IS DUE THE PASSAGE OF ACT 48. THIS INCLUDES ALL PROPERTY TYPES, BUT IS
DOMINATED BY RESIDENTIAL.
By far the greatest number of REO's are in the Puna market area.

Island wide the numbers haven't decline much since last summer. Current total is 75.

PAGE 4
PAGE 4
TABLE 4

to $1.5M

ACTIVE
LISTINGS

PENDING
SALES

no data
no data
297
200
154
no data
178
60
112
279
407
413
367
300
234
176
147
2012/2013 %chg -16%

TYPE OF
MARKET

no data
no data
78
78
62
no data
193
202
202
72
45
26
19
65
60
61
65
7%

1/31/1997
1/31/1998
1/31/1999
1/31/2000
1/31/2001
1/31/2002
1/31/2003
1/31/2004
1/31/2005
1/31/2006
1/31/2007
1/31/2008
1/31/2009
1/31/2010
1/31/2011
1/31/2012
1/31/2013

PENDING
RATIO

no data
no data
26.26
39.00
40.26
no data
108.43
336.67
180.36
25.81
11.06
6.30
5.18
21.67
25.64
34.66
44.22
28%

Number Sold AVERAGE
12 Month Period
Price

no data
no data
BUYER'S
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL

no data
PEAK
DEMAND PEAK
PEAK
BUYER'S
PRICE PEAK >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>
BUYER'S
DEMAND LOW
BUYER'S
BUYER'S
PRICE LOW >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>
NEUTRAL

310
312
370
470
483
391
500
614
609
662
398
251
184
166
295
303
322
6%

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

139,700
128,700
131,200
149,900
169,500
188,800
208,400
236,400
315,000
435,400
443,500
406,400
346,200
276,300
229,600
199,400
224,900
13%

VOLUME
MILLIONS

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

43
40
49
70
82
74
104
145
192
288
177
102
64
46
68
60
72
20%

Price

# SOLD
Last 30 days

$ 126,000
$ 108,500
$ 115,000
$ 131,000
$ 137,500
$ 150,000
$ 183,000
$ 205,000
$ 290,000
$ 395,000
$ 400,000
$ 360,000
$ 330,000
$ 242,500
$ 199,000
$ 163,500
$ 187,300
15%

24
20
41
39
30
24
52
58
34
44
29
12
10
21
23
33
23
-30%

MEDIAN

Chart 7 - Kona Condo Median Price( thous) & Pending Ratio - Past 2 Years
Median Price

Condo Pending Ratio

60
50

$250

$186

$180
40

$175

$172

$168

$165

$162

$165

$172

$171

$173 $175 $180

$187

$200

$150
30
$100
20

$50

10
0

$-

CHART 7 - Like Residential the N. Kona condo inventory shows a Year over Year decline. Unlike residential the number pending sales and sales is not much different than
a year ago.
Median price is up a healthy 15% percent now compared to median price in previous twelve months.

CHART 8 NORTH KONA CONDO MEDIAN PRICE vs NUMBER SOLD
700
600

9/
10/
11/
12/
1/31/201

$450,000

$400,000
$350,000

500

$300,000
400

$250,000

300

$200,000

Number Sold 12
Month Period

$150,000

200

MEDIAN Price
$100,000

100
0

CHART 8 - Condo price appears to be on an increasing trend due to strong sales numbers and declining inventory.

$50,000
$-
PAGE 5
NORTH KONA LAND DATA
TABLE 5
to $1.5M

1/31/1997
1/31/1998
1/31/1999
1/31/2000
1/31/2001
1/31/2002
1/31/2003
1/31/2004
1/31/2005
1/31/2006
1/31/2007
1/31/2008
1/31/2009
1/31/2010
1/31/2011
1/31/2012
1/31/2013
2012/2013 %chg

ACTIVE

no data
no data
372
262
290
no data
187
80
55
127
198
267
236
292
193
187

198
6%

PENDING
SALES

PENDING
RATIO

TYPE OF
MARKET

no data
no data
41
61
84
no data
88
118
43
39
17
13
12
15
11
8
24

no data
no data
11.02
23.28
28.97
no data
47.06
147.50
78.18
30.71
8.59
4.87
5.08
5.14
5.70
4.28
12.12

no data
no data

200%

183%

Year over year stat's actual show an increase in inventory .

Num ber Sold
12 Month Period

89
142
BUYER'S
141
BUYER'S
229
Neuatral
287
no data
206
Neuatral
294
DEMAND PEAK
272
Seller's
277
BUYER'S
150
PRICE PEAK >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
97
BUYER'S
57
DEMAND LOW
44
BUYER'S
50
BUYER'S
55
PRICE BOTTOM >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
69
BUYER'S
90

30%

Average
Price

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

212,200
194,700
147,800
157,900
210,800
195,200
199,500
265,800
362,600
510,000
531,500
463,400
405,200
290,800
256,000
272,400
220,100

-24%

VOLUME
MILLIONS

Median
# SOLD
Price Last 30 days

$
18.9
$
27.6
$
20.8
$
36.2
$
60.5
$
40.2
$
58.7
$
72.3
$ 100.4
$
76.5
$
51.6
$
26.4
$
17.8
$
14.5
$
14.1
$
18.8
$
19.8

$ 135,000
$ 125,000
$ 100,000
$ 116,000
$ 160,000
$ 170,000
$ 155,000
$ 225,000
$ 316,000
$ 435,000
$ 500,000
$ 420,000
$ 300,000
$ 272,000
$ 200,000
$ 180,000
$ 189,900

3
11
13
20
20
15
19
27
16
9
11
5
1
7
4
6
6

6%

6%

0%

The up side of this is there is also double the number of escrows and sales are up 24%.

Chart 9 - Kona Land Median Price (thous) & Pending Ratio Past 2 Years
LAND-Median Price

18
16

LAND Ratio

$250
$215

$199

14

$190

$184

$189
$175

$190

$190

$200

$178

$189 $190
$183 $188

$200

12
$150

10
8

$100

6

4

$50

2
0

$-

CHART 10 - NORTH KONA LAND MEDIAN PRICE vs NUMBER SOLD
350

$600,000

300

$500,000

250

$400,000
200
$300,000
Median Price

150
$200,000
100

$100,000

50
0

Number Sold 12
Month Period

$-

Sales numbers and overall demand increase has not been enough to change the land markets price direction. Price seems to be relatively stable but not on increasing path
seen wtih Residential and Condos. There is still a substantial general over supply.

PAGE 6

4/30/11
5/31/11
6/30/11
7/31/11
8/31/11
9/30/11
10/31/11
11/30/11
12/31/11
1/31/12
2/29/12
3/31/12
4/30/12
5/31/12
6/30/12
7/31/12
8/31/12
9/30/12
10/31/12
11/30/12
12/31/12
1/31/13
2/28/13
3/30/13
4/30/13
5/30/13
PAGE 6
SUMMARY TABLE OF PENDING RATIO TRENDS FOR NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL, CONDO AND LAND , BIG ISLAND RESIDENTIAL AND
COLOR

GUIDE

FOR

MARKET

TYPE:

PEAK

KONA RES , CONDO, LND & BIG IS PENDING RATIO TRENDS
TABLE 6
1/31/2005
1/31/2006
1/31/2007
1/31/2008
1/31/2009
1/31/2010
1/31/2011
1/31/2012
2/29/2012
3/31/2012
4/30/2012

5/31/2012
6/30/2012
7/31/2012
8/31/2012
9/30/2012
10/31/2012
11/30/2012
12/31/2012
1/31/2013

KONA RES
101.97
39.15
18.92
17.15
9.17
20.65
37.6
36.19
44.36
47.01
47.76

KONA CND
180.36
25.8
11.06
6.30
5.18
21.67
25.64
34.66
31.64
34.83
43.45

KONA LND
78.18
30.71
8.59
4.87
5.08
5.14
5.7
4.28
5.56
5.64
5.95

51.72
53.7
52.09
50.23
57.55
60.30
62.25
53.62

53.5
43.37
38.46
41.72
44.93
35.66
37.16
32.89

6.19
14.22
12.50
15.38
7.41
10.17
10.99
9.09

58.54

44.22

12.12

Average
All Three
120.17
31.89
12.86
9.44
6.48
15.82
22.98
25.04
27.19
29.16
32.39

SELLERS

NEUTRAL BUYERS

KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE PENDING RATIO'S
TO $400K $401K-$500K $501K-$700K$701K-$900K $901-$1.5M
$1.501M-$4.0M
Big Is RES

10.98
18.87
23.89
25.03
30.56
30.56
32.83

52.38
92.86
124.07
115.25
121.05
120.34

27.27
56.25
48.48
65.38
70.97
63.33

11.86
11.11
21.21
12.90
21.31
21.43
20.37

4.62
4.76
7.69
13.89
21.88
24.24
25

2.17
10.45
10.53
2.08
16.67
14.63
10.26

0
10.13
3.13
2.86
5.41
3.13
12.9

37.14
37.10
34.35
35.78
36.63
35.38
36.80
31.87

33.72
33.28
34.17
34.19
37.93
36.25
35.90
32.03

148
169.77
180.00
180.49
168.18
160.87
178.00
186.11

65.52
67.86
41.94
30.56
86.67
82.14
82.14
58.62

18.75
20.83
17.65
18.33
24.07
32.56
45.00
31.71

30
23.33
44.00
57.14
33.33
25.00
21.43
19.35

12
16.22
13.16
5.41
5.26
5.13
15.38
15.00

5.8
3.33
6.67
3.70
8.00
4.17
3.57
6.67

38.29

34.18

196.97

70.00

36.84

35.29

12.50

10.00

61.76%
27.58%
183.18%
52.91%
36.56%
58.76%
44.39%
185.58% 154.07% 500.96% 249.65%
TABLE # 6 - Higher Ratio = Stronger Market. BIG ISLAND PENDING RATIO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND IS AT NEW HIGH.
12' vs 13'

Year over Year improvement is substantial in all catagories except Kona Condos is only slightly improved from a year ago. Notice as
the recovery progresses the increasing Pending Ratios in Residential Price Ranges spreads to higher price levels. Three yea r ago all
price range colomns were pink with the exception for under $400,000.
CHART 6 - Kona Residential and Condo Pending Ratios for the past 12 Months
70.00
60.00
50.00

40.00
KONA RES

30.00

KONA CND

20.00
10.00
0.00

250.00

Chart 7 - North Kona Residential Pending Ratio by Price Range

200.00
TO $400K
150.00

$401K-$500K
$501K-$700K

100.00

$701K-$900K
$901-$1.5M

50.00

$1.501M-$4.0M

0.00

Chart 7 - As mentioned the year over year improvement is substantial.
fairly dramatically going forward?

The year end and first two weeks of the new year are fairly flat. We should expect this to change
PAGE 7
TABLE 1 - KONA & WEST COAST CITIES RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY - January 31, 2013
COUNTY

KONA

POPULATION 2010
Realtor.com - Market Area
Peak Inventory Date
Inventory PEAK
Inventory 12 months ago to date
CURRENT INVENTORY
% Change 12 m onths
% CHANGE FROM PEAK TO CURRENT

LA

VEGAS

SAN DIEGO

SAN FRAN

33,300
KONA
Mar-09
475
268
205
-23.51%

9.819M
LA
Aug-07
6875
3918
2124
-45.79%

1.95M
VEGAS
Oct-07
16423
13011
9903
-23.89%

3.095M
SAN DIEGO
Sep-07
4302
2240
1233
-44.96%

805,000
SAN FRAN
Oct-08
949
416
262
-37.02%

-56.84%

-69.11%

-39.70%

-71.34%

-72.39%

PORTLAND,O
2.260M
PORTLAND
Aug-08
5992
2658
1933
-27.28%

SANTA FE, NM
144,170
SANTA FE, NM
Aug-08
1797
1073
956
-10.90%

-67.74%

-46.80%

TABLE & CHART 1 COMMENTS: Declining inventory trend continues in Kona and all other market areas on the West Coast followe d in this report.
The inventory on the West Coast are showing the typical season decline couple by sharp Year over Year declines. Kona's i nventory decline is not at the pace of the CA metro's. San Diego and
San Francisco showing very sharp declines.
DQNEWS.COM comments below the Price chart indicate the Bay Area price appreciation greatest in 25 years at 20% Year over Yea r.
Data is residential listing inventory from REALTOR.COM

CHART 1 - Single Family Residential Inventory - KONA , SAN FRANCISCO, SAN DIEGO & L A
KONA

SAN FRAN

SAN DIEGO

LA

DATE

PRICE TREND COMMENTS: Each of the 20 cities in the Case Shiller study as of September shows price increase over the past 12 months.
* Kona home price data from Hawaii Information Service and is Median Price.

* San Diego , LA and San Francisco is a home price index from Case Shiller Home Price index.

CHART 2 - Three Year Price Trend for Kona, San Diego, Los Angeles and San Francisco
San Diego

LA

San Francisco

Kona Home Price

$400,000

200.00
180.00
160.00

$390,000

140.00

$380,000

120.00
100.00

$370,000

80.00

$360,000

60.00

$350,000

40.00
20.00

San Diego & L.A. Home Prices Index

KONA
$410,000

1

1

1

$340,000
0.00
Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13

CURRENT DQNEWS.COM HEADLINES RELATED TO CALIFORNIA MARKETS: SEE FULL STORY ON WEBSITE - DQNews.com
1) An estimated 39,760 new and resale houses and condos sold statewide last month, up 6.1 percent from 37,481 in November, and u p 5.4 percent from 37,734 sales in December 2011
2) The pace at which the Bay Area housing market is making up for lost ground quickened at the end of 2012 as sales increase d year-over-year for the 18th month in a row and the median price rose at its
fastest rate in more than 25 years. The market remained constrained by a tight supply of homes for sale and a fussy home loan environment interest

3) The number of Golden State homes sold for a million dollars or more rose to its highest level since 2007, fueled by a rec overing economy, rising home prices and a record number of cash purchases. The
number of homes sold for more than $5 million rose to an all -time high
4) The number of California homeowners pushed into the foreclosure process fell last quarter to the lowest level in six years, t he result of rising home values, an improving economy and a shift toward
short sales .
5)The number of California homes purchased with cash reached an all -time high last year, the result of high investor interest, a difficult mortgage environment, and perceived higher returns on

1
1
1

1
1
PAGE 8
USEFUL WEBSITES:
A www. dqnews.com/ - Western metros sales data and trends.
B. www.housingtracker.net - Listing inventory and average list prices for 52 large cities.
C. www. nahb.org - National Association of Home Builders.
D.www.mbaa.org - Mortgage Bankers Association - loan activity and loan forecasts.
E. www.fhfa.gov - Federal Housing Finance Agency - GOVERNMENT DATA ON HOUSING MARKET
F. Google search - "Case-Shiller Home Price Indices"
G. www.realtytimes.com - Real Estate Agents perspective of local markets.
H. www.realtor.org - NAR - Select "News Media" and look for "Economic Housing Indicators".
I.
www.hawaii.gov/dbedt - Dept. of Business and Economic Development
J. www.federalreserve.gov
K. www.eia.doe.gov - Energy Information Agency - Oil and Gas prices and forecasts.
L. www.hawaii-county.com/info/stats.html - Hawaii County statistics. Updates monthly.
M. www.uhero.hawaii.edu/
Very good Hawaii State Economic reports
DATA TABULATED BY: MICHAEL B. GRIGGS, R, CRA, GRI , Clark Realty Corporation
THANK YOU FOR YOUR WORDS OF ENCOURAGEMENT, SUGGESTIONS AND COMMENTS THAT CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THE REPORTMike Griggs - mikegriggs@hawaiiantel.net cell ph. 808 936-8134
ALL HAWAII DATA HAS BEEN COLLECTED FROM MLS HAWAII, HAWAII INFORMATION SERVICE, REALTORS.COM AND OTHER SOURCES NAMED IN THE REPORT.
NOTES:
1) PAGE 1- TABLE 1 - RESIDENTIAL DATA COLLECTED IS LIMITED TO $4M AND UNDER PRICE RANGE IN ORDER TO SCREEN OUT RECENT HIGH END ACTIVITY AT KUKIO
AND HUALALAI RESORT AREA'S. SIMILARLY THE CONDO AND LAND DATA HAS AN UPPER LIMIT OF $1.5M.
2) NUMBER SOLD, AVERAGE PRICE AND MEDIAN PRICE IS DATA IS FROM A MOVING 12 MONTH PERIOD. UPDATED EVERY TWO WEEKS THIS I S A VERY ACCURATE METHOD OF TRACKING THE SALES
PRICE TRENDS.
3) THE PENDING RATIO MAYBE A GOOD LEADING INDICATOR OF MARKET STRENGTH AND PRICE DIRECTION. THE MARKET TYPE DESIGNATION, EG. SELLER, BUYER
MARKET, NEUTRAL AND PEAK IS BASED ON CALIBRATION IS USING PENDING RATIO DATA IN THE PAST MARKET CYCLE.
3) PAGE 1-TABLES 1 , 2 and 3 REPRESENTS THE ENTIRE NORTH KONA MARKET. IT SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED TO BE AN INDICATOR OF THE MARKET CONDITION IN
ALL SUBMARKETS WITHIN THE MARKET AREA OR FOR DIFFERENT MARKET AREAS ON THE ISLAND.
MICHAEL B. GRIGGS, RB AND CLARK REALTY CORPORATION ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR IT'S USE BY OTHERS.
OTHERS.
MAHALO!

YOUR ARE WELCOME TO SHARE THE REPORT WITH

1
1
1
1
1
1

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Big Island Real Esate Report-january-31-2013 Statistics, Trends, Sales, Kona

  • 1. GRIGGS REPORT #129 - JANUARY 31, 2013 A TWICE MONTHLY REAL ESTATE MARKET PERSPECTIVE FOR NORTH KONA AND THE BIG ISLAND PAGE 1 NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL DATA ABOUT THE PENDING RATIO: The Pending Ratio is used throughout the report to serve as an indicator of Market Strength and Market Trend.. PENDING RATIO = NUMBER OF PENDING SALES DIVIDED BY ACTIVE LISTING TIMES 100 / THE HIGHER RATIO = STRONGER MARKET DEMAND. Why it is a useful indicator: 1) It is a current leading indicator of market Demand vs. Supply Dynamics based on Listing and Pending Sale MLS Data. 2) It is a readily available useful indication or market strength when tract over time shows market trend. The following Color Codes describe what the ratio numbers mean in terms of the type of market. ( This calibration is less accurate when there is an abnormal supply of distressed properties entering the market on a regular basis such as currently is the case. ) PEAK MARKET - Signals the End of the Real Estate Cycle is eminent PENDING RATIO 100 or GREATER PEAK SELLERS MARKET PENDING RATIO FROM 51 TO 99 SELLER'S NEUTRAL OR STABLE MARKET PENDING RATIO FROM 30 TO 50 NEUTRAL BUYERS MARKET PENDING RATIO BELOW 30 BUYER'S NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL DATA TABLE TABLE 1 ACTIVE LISTINGS PENDING SALES PENDING RATIO 1/31/1997 1/31/1998 1/31/1999 1/31/2000 1/31/2001 1/31/2002 1/31/2003 1/31/2004 1/31/2005 1/31/2006 1/31/2007 1/31/2008 1/31/2009 1/31/2010 1/31/2011 1/31/2012 1/31/2013 no data 374 305 192 290 no data 228 133 152 304 407 449 447 397 279 268 205 no data 63 73 106 134 129 133 151 155 119 77 77 41 82 105 97 120 no data 16.84 23.93 55.21 46.21 no data 58.33 113.53 101.97 39.14 18.92 17.15 9.17 20.65 37.63 36.19 58.54 2010/2011 %chg -24% 24% 62% to $4M TYPE OF MARKET Num ber Sold Average 12 Month Period Price no data BUYER'S BUYER'S SELLER'S NEUTRAL no data SELLER'S DEMAND PEAK SELLER'S NEUTRAL PRICE PEAK >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> BUYER'S DEMAND LOW BUYER'S NEUTRAL PRICE BOTTOM >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> SELLER'S 252 246 330 441 447 519 529 660 683 648 474 394 234 283 357 402 420 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 4% VOLUME MILLIONS 273,700 283,000 268,900 313,700 360,400 354,900 372,800 456,000 585,100 737,200 753,200 718,900 664,100 500,900 467,900 457,100 514,200 12% Inventory continues to be tight with a 24% decline from last year. All other stats continue to show improvement from a ye ar ago. continue to show increase in almost each report. The pending ratio has taken its seasonal turn upward due to increased number of pending sales and stable or declining invent ory. Median # SOLD Price Last 30 days $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 69.0 $ 228,000 69.6 $ 237,000 88.7 $ 224,500 138.3 $ 246,000 161.1 $ 275,000 184.2 $ 275,000 197.2 $ 322,200 301.0 $ 395,500 399.6 $ 498,000 477.7 $ 625,000 357.0 $ 630,000 283.2 $ 603,500 155.4 $ 529,500 141.8 $ 420,000 167.0 $ 395,000 $ $ 183.8 216.0 $ 368,500 $ 399,100 16 14 19 34 41 44 28 48 43 39 29 20 7 23 19 23 31 8% 35% 18% Both Average and Median Price Chart 1 - Kona Residential Median Price (thous) & Pending Ratio - Past 2 Years 70 60$395 Res-Median Price Res Pending Ratio $410 $400 $391 $393 $383 $385 $385 $385 50 40 30 $375 $369 $369 $369 $373 $365 $365 $399 $400 $390 $380 $370 20 $360 10 $350 0 $340 CHART 2 - N. Kona Residential Median Price vs Number Sold Since 1997 Median Price Number Sold 12 Month Period 800 $700,000 700 $600,000 600 $500,000 500 $400,000 400 $300,000 300 200 $200,000 100 $100,000 0 CHART 2 - $- The growth in the number of home sales is remains relatively stable.
  • 2. PAGE 2 NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE TABLE AND BIG ISLAND RESIDENTIAL LISTINGS, PENDING SALES AND SALES Year To Date TABLE 2 KONA Residential NUMBER PRICE RANGE ACTIVE TO $ 400,000 $ 401,000 $ 500,000 $ 501,000 $ 700,000 $701,000 $ 900,000 $ 901,000 $1,500,000 $1.5M $ 4.0M $4.001 M or GREATER NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA AVERAGE PRICE NUMBER PENDING 33 30 38 34 $ 322,600 $ 452,900 $ 625,900 $ 827,900 40 $ 1,165,300 30 $ 2,278,500 36 $ 7,833,800 AVERAGE PRICE 65 $304,800 21 $ 445,600 14 $ 600,000 12 $ 783,100 5 $1,197,000 3 $ 2,716,700 5 $ 9,189,000 PENDING VOL MILLIONS $ $ $ $ $ $ $ KONA RES 2012 232 61 52 26 25 8 19 19.8 9.4 8.4 14.4 13.6 8.2 45.9 NUMBER SOLD PENDING 2013 RATIO 214 80 57 36 25 11 12 196.97 70.00 36.84 35.29 12.50 10.00 13.89 TABLE 2 - The under $400,000 inventory now stands at only 33 homes. ....WOW! The over $4.0M market has had quite a lift in its seasonal sales with decline in inventory and nice spike in pending sales of 5 homes. This is up from 0 one month ago. Pink "Buyers" market is only indicated in 3 price ranges now, all above CHART 3 - NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL NUMBER SOLD PAST 12 MONTHS BY PRICE RANGE - Number, Percent of Total 11, 3% 12, 3% TO $400,000 25, 6% $401,000 $500,000 $501,000 $700,000 36, 8% $701,000 $900,000 $901,000 $1,500,000 $1.5M $ 4.0M $4.001 M or GREATER 214, 49% 57, 13% 80, 18% TABLE 3 3-1 TO 3-4 ALL EAST HI RESIDENTIAL 3-5 TO 3-9 ALL WEST HI RESIDENTIAL ALL BIG ISLE ALL BIG ISLE ALL BIG ISLE BIG ISLE R ES ACTIVE PENDING SOLD YTD ACTIVE PENDING SOLD YTD ACTIVE PENDING SOLD YTD BIG ISLAND LISTING, PENDING SALES AND SALES YEAR TO DATE NUMBER LOW 562 AVERAGE MEDIAN NORTH KONA HIGH RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA MODE $25,500 $5,900,000 $374,694 $255,000 N/A 186 $42,000 $1,995,000 $240,703 $175,000 N/A 46 $46,500 $575,000 $221,767 $200,500 $230,000 655 $19,600 $25,000,000 $1,257,135 $519,000 $695,000 230 $30,000 $11,900,000 $644,924 $368,500 $399,000 VOLUME (M) PENDING $ 210.6 RATIO $ 44.8 $ 10.2 33.10 55 $50,000 $3,300,000 $468,814 $350,000 $350,000 1217 $19,600 $25,000,000 $849,631 $369,000 $30,000 $11,900,000 $464,190 $266,500 $299,000 101 $46,500 $3,300,000 $356,298 $282,500 $230,000 148.3 25.8 $1,034 $ $ 193.1 36.0 $299,000 416 $823 $ $ 35.11 34.18 CHART 4 - West HI, East HI and Hawaii Island - Residential Pending Ratio over the Past Two Years 45.00 40.00 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 West Hawaii Ratio East Hawaii Ratio Big Is Res Ratio 10.00 5.00 - CHART 4 - A seasonal increase in Pending Ratio is on cue with both East and West sides showing nice increase in Pending Ratio. 1/31/12 Island wide inventory is down 17% from
  • 3. PAGE 3 CHART 5 - Percentage of ISLAND DISTRESSED RESIDENTIALsales Listings that are Short Sales or REO BIG Total MLS Active, Pending or 90 PROPERTIES TREND 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% N. KONA 3-7 WAIKOLOA 3-6-8 30.00% WAIMEA 3-6-4,5,6 S HILO 3-2 PUNA 3-1 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% CHART 3: THIS CHART IS PROBABLY THE BEST INDICATOR OF THE ISLAND WIDE DESTRESSED PROPERTY TREND. All market areas covered showed declines in the percentage of MLS listing that are either REO or Short Sales. Chart 6 - Number of REO Properties By District , Owned by: Fed. National Mortgage Assn. (FANNIE MAE), Deutsche Bank, Wells Fargo & Bank of America # of REO Properties 60 Puna 50 S Hilo 40 30 S Kohala 20 10 01/31/12 02/29/12 03/31/12 04/30/12 05/31/12 06/30/12 07/31/12 08/31/12 09/30/12 10/31/12 11/30/12 12/31/12 N Kona S Kona, Kau 0 01/31/13 CHART 4: THIS CHART LOOKS AT THE FORECLOSURE TREND AS REFLECTED IN THE NUMBER OF Fannie Mae, Deutsche Bank, Wells Fargo and Bank of America OWNED PROPERTIES. MUCH OF THE DECLINE IS DUE THE PASSAGE OF ACT 48. THIS INCLUDES ALL PROPERTY TYPES, BUT IS DOMINATED BY RESIDENTIAL. By far the greatest number of REO's are in the Puna market area. Island wide the numbers haven't decline much since last summer. Current total is 75. PAGE 4
  • 4. PAGE 4 TABLE 4 to $1.5M ACTIVE LISTINGS PENDING SALES no data no data 297 200 154 no data 178 60 112 279 407 413 367 300 234 176 147 2012/2013 %chg -16% TYPE OF MARKET no data no data 78 78 62 no data 193 202 202 72 45 26 19 65 60 61 65 7% 1/31/1997 1/31/1998 1/31/1999 1/31/2000 1/31/2001 1/31/2002 1/31/2003 1/31/2004 1/31/2005 1/31/2006 1/31/2007 1/31/2008 1/31/2009 1/31/2010 1/31/2011 1/31/2012 1/31/2013 PENDING RATIO no data no data 26.26 39.00 40.26 no data 108.43 336.67 180.36 25.81 11.06 6.30 5.18 21.67 25.64 34.66 44.22 28% Number Sold AVERAGE 12 Month Period Price no data no data BUYER'S NEUTRAL NEUTRAL no data PEAK DEMAND PEAK PEAK BUYER'S PRICE PEAK >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> BUYER'S DEMAND LOW BUYER'S BUYER'S PRICE LOW >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> NEUTRAL 310 312 370 470 483 391 500 614 609 662 398 251 184 166 295 303 322 6% $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 139,700 128,700 131,200 149,900 169,500 188,800 208,400 236,400 315,000 435,400 443,500 406,400 346,200 276,300 229,600 199,400 224,900 13% VOLUME MILLIONS $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 43 40 49 70 82 74 104 145 192 288 177 102 64 46 68 60 72 20% Price # SOLD Last 30 days $ 126,000 $ 108,500 $ 115,000 $ 131,000 $ 137,500 $ 150,000 $ 183,000 $ 205,000 $ 290,000 $ 395,000 $ 400,000 $ 360,000 $ 330,000 $ 242,500 $ 199,000 $ 163,500 $ 187,300 15% 24 20 41 39 30 24 52 58 34 44 29 12 10 21 23 33 23 -30% MEDIAN Chart 7 - Kona Condo Median Price( thous) & Pending Ratio - Past 2 Years Median Price Condo Pending Ratio 60 50 $250 $186 $180 40 $175 $172 $168 $165 $162 $165 $172 $171 $173 $175 $180 $187 $200 $150 30 $100 20 $50 10 0 $- CHART 7 - Like Residential the N. Kona condo inventory shows a Year over Year decline. Unlike residential the number pending sales and sales is not much different than a year ago. Median price is up a healthy 15% percent now compared to median price in previous twelve months. CHART 8 NORTH KONA CONDO MEDIAN PRICE vs NUMBER SOLD 700 600 9/ 10/ 11/ 12/ 1/31/201 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 500 $300,000 400 $250,000 300 $200,000 Number Sold 12 Month Period $150,000 200 MEDIAN Price $100,000 100 0 CHART 8 - Condo price appears to be on an increasing trend due to strong sales numbers and declining inventory. $50,000 $-
  • 5. PAGE 5 NORTH KONA LAND DATA TABLE 5 to $1.5M 1/31/1997 1/31/1998 1/31/1999 1/31/2000 1/31/2001 1/31/2002 1/31/2003 1/31/2004 1/31/2005 1/31/2006 1/31/2007 1/31/2008 1/31/2009 1/31/2010 1/31/2011 1/31/2012 1/31/2013 2012/2013 %chg ACTIVE no data no data 372 262 290 no data 187 80 55 127 198 267 236 292 193 187 198 6% PENDING SALES PENDING RATIO TYPE OF MARKET no data no data 41 61 84 no data 88 118 43 39 17 13 12 15 11 8 24 no data no data 11.02 23.28 28.97 no data 47.06 147.50 78.18 30.71 8.59 4.87 5.08 5.14 5.70 4.28 12.12 no data no data 200% 183% Year over year stat's actual show an increase in inventory . Num ber Sold 12 Month Period 89 142 BUYER'S 141 BUYER'S 229 Neuatral 287 no data 206 Neuatral 294 DEMAND PEAK 272 Seller's 277 BUYER'S 150 PRICE PEAK >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 97 BUYER'S 57 DEMAND LOW 44 BUYER'S 50 BUYER'S 55 PRICE BOTTOM >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 69 BUYER'S 90 30% Average Price $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 212,200 194,700 147,800 157,900 210,800 195,200 199,500 265,800 362,600 510,000 531,500 463,400 405,200 290,800 256,000 272,400 220,100 -24% VOLUME MILLIONS Median # SOLD Price Last 30 days $ 18.9 $ 27.6 $ 20.8 $ 36.2 $ 60.5 $ 40.2 $ 58.7 $ 72.3 $ 100.4 $ 76.5 $ 51.6 $ 26.4 $ 17.8 $ 14.5 $ 14.1 $ 18.8 $ 19.8 $ 135,000 $ 125,000 $ 100,000 $ 116,000 $ 160,000 $ 170,000 $ 155,000 $ 225,000 $ 316,000 $ 435,000 $ 500,000 $ 420,000 $ 300,000 $ 272,000 $ 200,000 $ 180,000 $ 189,900 3 11 13 20 20 15 19 27 16 9 11 5 1 7 4 6 6 6% 6% 0% The up side of this is there is also double the number of escrows and sales are up 24%. Chart 9 - Kona Land Median Price (thous) & Pending Ratio Past 2 Years LAND-Median Price 18 16 LAND Ratio $250 $215 $199 14 $190 $184 $189 $175 $190 $190 $200 $178 $189 $190 $183 $188 $200 12 $150 10 8 $100 6 4 $50 2 0 $- CHART 10 - NORTH KONA LAND MEDIAN PRICE vs NUMBER SOLD 350 $600,000 300 $500,000 250 $400,000 200 $300,000 Median Price 150 $200,000 100 $100,000 50 0 Number Sold 12 Month Period $- Sales numbers and overall demand increase has not been enough to change the land markets price direction. Price seems to be relatively stable but not on increasing path seen wtih Residential and Condos. There is still a substantial general over supply. PAGE 6 4/30/11 5/31/11 6/30/11 7/31/11 8/31/11 9/30/11 10/31/11 11/30/11 12/31/11 1/31/12 2/29/12 3/31/12 4/30/12 5/31/12 6/30/12 7/31/12 8/31/12 9/30/12 10/31/12 11/30/12 12/31/12 1/31/13 2/28/13 3/30/13 4/30/13 5/30/13
  • 6. PAGE 6 SUMMARY TABLE OF PENDING RATIO TRENDS FOR NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL, CONDO AND LAND , BIG ISLAND RESIDENTIAL AND COLOR GUIDE FOR MARKET TYPE: PEAK KONA RES , CONDO, LND & BIG IS PENDING RATIO TRENDS TABLE 6 1/31/2005 1/31/2006 1/31/2007 1/31/2008 1/31/2009 1/31/2010 1/31/2011 1/31/2012 2/29/2012 3/31/2012 4/30/2012 5/31/2012 6/30/2012 7/31/2012 8/31/2012 9/30/2012 10/31/2012 11/30/2012 12/31/2012 1/31/2013 KONA RES 101.97 39.15 18.92 17.15 9.17 20.65 37.6 36.19 44.36 47.01 47.76 KONA CND 180.36 25.8 11.06 6.30 5.18 21.67 25.64 34.66 31.64 34.83 43.45 KONA LND 78.18 30.71 8.59 4.87 5.08 5.14 5.7 4.28 5.56 5.64 5.95 51.72 53.7 52.09 50.23 57.55 60.30 62.25 53.62 53.5 43.37 38.46 41.72 44.93 35.66 37.16 32.89 6.19 14.22 12.50 15.38 7.41 10.17 10.99 9.09 58.54 44.22 12.12 Average All Three 120.17 31.89 12.86 9.44 6.48 15.82 22.98 25.04 27.19 29.16 32.39 SELLERS NEUTRAL BUYERS KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE PENDING RATIO'S TO $400K $401K-$500K $501K-$700K$701K-$900K $901-$1.5M $1.501M-$4.0M Big Is RES 10.98 18.87 23.89 25.03 30.56 30.56 32.83 52.38 92.86 124.07 115.25 121.05 120.34 27.27 56.25 48.48 65.38 70.97 63.33 11.86 11.11 21.21 12.90 21.31 21.43 20.37 4.62 4.76 7.69 13.89 21.88 24.24 25 2.17 10.45 10.53 2.08 16.67 14.63 10.26 0 10.13 3.13 2.86 5.41 3.13 12.9 37.14 37.10 34.35 35.78 36.63 35.38 36.80 31.87 33.72 33.28 34.17 34.19 37.93 36.25 35.90 32.03 148 169.77 180.00 180.49 168.18 160.87 178.00 186.11 65.52 67.86 41.94 30.56 86.67 82.14 82.14 58.62 18.75 20.83 17.65 18.33 24.07 32.56 45.00 31.71 30 23.33 44.00 57.14 33.33 25.00 21.43 19.35 12 16.22 13.16 5.41 5.26 5.13 15.38 15.00 5.8 3.33 6.67 3.70 8.00 4.17 3.57 6.67 38.29 34.18 196.97 70.00 36.84 35.29 12.50 10.00 61.76% 27.58% 183.18% 52.91% 36.56% 58.76% 44.39% 185.58% 154.07% 500.96% 249.65% TABLE # 6 - Higher Ratio = Stronger Market. BIG ISLAND PENDING RATIO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND IS AT NEW HIGH. 12' vs 13' Year over Year improvement is substantial in all catagories except Kona Condos is only slightly improved from a year ago. Notice as the recovery progresses the increasing Pending Ratios in Residential Price Ranges spreads to higher price levels. Three yea r ago all price range colomns were pink with the exception for under $400,000. CHART 6 - Kona Residential and Condo Pending Ratios for the past 12 Months 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 KONA RES 30.00 KONA CND 20.00 10.00 0.00 250.00 Chart 7 - North Kona Residential Pending Ratio by Price Range 200.00 TO $400K 150.00 $401K-$500K $501K-$700K 100.00 $701K-$900K $901-$1.5M 50.00 $1.501M-$4.0M 0.00 Chart 7 - As mentioned the year over year improvement is substantial. fairly dramatically going forward? The year end and first two weeks of the new year are fairly flat. We should expect this to change
  • 7. PAGE 7 TABLE 1 - KONA & WEST COAST CITIES RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY - January 31, 2013 COUNTY KONA POPULATION 2010 Realtor.com - Market Area Peak Inventory Date Inventory PEAK Inventory 12 months ago to date CURRENT INVENTORY % Change 12 m onths % CHANGE FROM PEAK TO CURRENT LA VEGAS SAN DIEGO SAN FRAN 33,300 KONA Mar-09 475 268 205 -23.51% 9.819M LA Aug-07 6875 3918 2124 -45.79% 1.95M VEGAS Oct-07 16423 13011 9903 -23.89% 3.095M SAN DIEGO Sep-07 4302 2240 1233 -44.96% 805,000 SAN FRAN Oct-08 949 416 262 -37.02% -56.84% -69.11% -39.70% -71.34% -72.39% PORTLAND,O 2.260M PORTLAND Aug-08 5992 2658 1933 -27.28% SANTA FE, NM 144,170 SANTA FE, NM Aug-08 1797 1073 956 -10.90% -67.74% -46.80% TABLE & CHART 1 COMMENTS: Declining inventory trend continues in Kona and all other market areas on the West Coast followe d in this report. The inventory on the West Coast are showing the typical season decline couple by sharp Year over Year declines. Kona's i nventory decline is not at the pace of the CA metro's. San Diego and San Francisco showing very sharp declines. DQNEWS.COM comments below the Price chart indicate the Bay Area price appreciation greatest in 25 years at 20% Year over Yea r. Data is residential listing inventory from REALTOR.COM CHART 1 - Single Family Residential Inventory - KONA , SAN FRANCISCO, SAN DIEGO & L A KONA SAN FRAN SAN DIEGO LA DATE PRICE TREND COMMENTS: Each of the 20 cities in the Case Shiller study as of September shows price increase over the past 12 months. * Kona home price data from Hawaii Information Service and is Median Price. * San Diego , LA and San Francisco is a home price index from Case Shiller Home Price index. CHART 2 - Three Year Price Trend for Kona, San Diego, Los Angeles and San Francisco San Diego LA San Francisco Kona Home Price $400,000 200.00 180.00 160.00 $390,000 140.00 $380,000 120.00 100.00 $370,000 80.00 $360,000 60.00 $350,000 40.00 20.00 San Diego & L.A. Home Prices Index KONA $410,000 1 1 1 $340,000 0.00 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 CURRENT DQNEWS.COM HEADLINES RELATED TO CALIFORNIA MARKETS: SEE FULL STORY ON WEBSITE - DQNews.com 1) An estimated 39,760 new and resale houses and condos sold statewide last month, up 6.1 percent from 37,481 in November, and u p 5.4 percent from 37,734 sales in December 2011 2) The pace at which the Bay Area housing market is making up for lost ground quickened at the end of 2012 as sales increase d year-over-year for the 18th month in a row and the median price rose at its fastest rate in more than 25 years. The market remained constrained by a tight supply of homes for sale and a fussy home loan environment interest 3) The number of Golden State homes sold for a million dollars or more rose to its highest level since 2007, fueled by a rec overing economy, rising home prices and a record number of cash purchases. The number of homes sold for more than $5 million rose to an all -time high 4) The number of California homeowners pushed into the foreclosure process fell last quarter to the lowest level in six years, t he result of rising home values, an improving economy and a shift toward short sales . 5)The number of California homes purchased with cash reached an all -time high last year, the result of high investor interest, a difficult mortgage environment, and perceived higher returns on 1 1 1 1 1
  • 8. PAGE 8 USEFUL WEBSITES: A www. dqnews.com/ - Western metros sales data and trends. B. www.housingtracker.net - Listing inventory and average list prices for 52 large cities. C. www. nahb.org - National Association of Home Builders. D.www.mbaa.org - Mortgage Bankers Association - loan activity and loan forecasts. E. www.fhfa.gov - Federal Housing Finance Agency - GOVERNMENT DATA ON HOUSING MARKET F. Google search - "Case-Shiller Home Price Indices" G. www.realtytimes.com - Real Estate Agents perspective of local markets. H. www.realtor.org - NAR - Select "News Media" and look for "Economic Housing Indicators". I. www.hawaii.gov/dbedt - Dept. of Business and Economic Development J. www.federalreserve.gov K. www.eia.doe.gov - Energy Information Agency - Oil and Gas prices and forecasts. L. www.hawaii-county.com/info/stats.html - Hawaii County statistics. Updates monthly. M. www.uhero.hawaii.edu/ Very good Hawaii State Economic reports DATA TABULATED BY: MICHAEL B. GRIGGS, R, CRA, GRI , Clark Realty Corporation THANK YOU FOR YOUR WORDS OF ENCOURAGEMENT, SUGGESTIONS AND COMMENTS THAT CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THE REPORTMike Griggs - mikegriggs@hawaiiantel.net cell ph. 808 936-8134 ALL HAWAII DATA HAS BEEN COLLECTED FROM MLS HAWAII, HAWAII INFORMATION SERVICE, REALTORS.COM AND OTHER SOURCES NAMED IN THE REPORT. NOTES: 1) PAGE 1- TABLE 1 - RESIDENTIAL DATA COLLECTED IS LIMITED TO $4M AND UNDER PRICE RANGE IN ORDER TO SCREEN OUT RECENT HIGH END ACTIVITY AT KUKIO AND HUALALAI RESORT AREA'S. SIMILARLY THE CONDO AND LAND DATA HAS AN UPPER LIMIT OF $1.5M. 2) NUMBER SOLD, AVERAGE PRICE AND MEDIAN PRICE IS DATA IS FROM A MOVING 12 MONTH PERIOD. UPDATED EVERY TWO WEEKS THIS I S A VERY ACCURATE METHOD OF TRACKING THE SALES PRICE TRENDS. 3) THE PENDING RATIO MAYBE A GOOD LEADING INDICATOR OF MARKET STRENGTH AND PRICE DIRECTION. THE MARKET TYPE DESIGNATION, EG. SELLER, BUYER MARKET, NEUTRAL AND PEAK IS BASED ON CALIBRATION IS USING PENDING RATIO DATA IN THE PAST MARKET CYCLE. 3) PAGE 1-TABLES 1 , 2 and 3 REPRESENTS THE ENTIRE NORTH KONA MARKET. IT SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED TO BE AN INDICATOR OF THE MARKET CONDITION IN ALL SUBMARKETS WITHIN THE MARKET AREA OR FOR DIFFERENT MARKET AREAS ON THE ISLAND. MICHAEL B. GRIGGS, RB AND CLARK REALTY CORPORATION ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR IT'S USE BY OTHERS. OTHERS. MAHALO! YOUR ARE WELCOME TO SHARE THE REPORT WITH 1 1 1 1 1 1