Pedersen
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The document summarizes search engines in 2005 compared to 1998, noting the major players in 2005 with billions in annual revenues conducting over 400 million daily searches of indexes with 5-8 billion pages. In 1998, Infoseek was a major player but had a much smaller index of 60 million pages and competed as a portal rather than focusing solely on search. Underlying trends included exponential growth of index sizes, uncertainty around reported size metrics, and a shift toward online advertising. New developments included image, product, local, and personalized search capabilities as well as contextual search and desktop search tools.
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Pedersen
- 1. Internet Search Engines: Past and Future Jan Pedersen Chief Scientist, Yahoo! Search 11 April 2005 1
- 2. Outline • Compare and contrast – 2005 vs 1998 • Some underlying trends • What’s New 2
- 3. Search Landscape 2005 • Three major Players – Google ($52B) – Yahoo ($42B) – MSN ($271B) • $6+B in Paid Search Revenues • >400M searches daily • 5-8B claimed index size • Excellent relevance Source: Search Engine Watch 3
- 5. Infoseek circa 1998 • IPO in 1996 – Same year as Excite and Yahoo! • 5th ranked destination site • Market cap of $1B • Competed as a portal – Content was king • Ultimately sold to Disney – Go network • Decommissioned in 2001 5
- 6. Infoseek Search Technology • 1.5 Generation Search – Tuned for relevance • Proximity • Anchor text (ESP) • Inlink counting – Small but competant index • 60M pages • Alta Vista was 140M at that time • Still exists as Ultraseek server – Sold to Inktomi in 2000, later resold to Verity 6
- 9. What was missing? • Business Model – Monetized via untargeted banner ads – Need for increased inventory • Portalitis • Clutter • Lack of focus • Search was deprioritized 9
- 10. Some Underlying Trends 10
- 11. Moore’s Law 11
- 12. Index Size • ~150M in 1998 • ~5B in 2005 – 33x increase – Moore would predict 25x • Monthly refresh in 1998 • Daily refresh in 2005 • What about 2010? – 40B? • Where is the content? – Public Web? – Personal Web? Source: Search Engine Watch and Search Engine Showdown 12
- 13. Meaning of Hit Counts • Hits Counts are estimated – Indices are tiered – Estimates can be non- linear Source: http://aixtal.blogspot.com/2005/01/web-googles-counts-faked.html 13
- 14. Meaning of Document Counts • Claimed index Size – Google: 3B – FAST: 3B – AV: 1B • Not all Documents are equal – Thin docs • Disparity between claimed and reported Source: Search Engine Showdown 14
- 15. Online Advertising • Internet accounts for 30+% of viewing time – Yet only 4% of spend – $370B overall • $10B online • Fastest growing advertising segment • Steady shift toward Online advertising Source: The Economist 15
- 16. The Keyword Marketplace • The great, unsung, search problem – Matching relevant ads to user intent • Example of distributed authorship – Advertisers bid on keywords – Discounts for good performance (relevance) 16
- 17. What’s New? 17
- 18. Verticals Image Search Product Search 18
- 19. Local 19
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