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Internet Search Engines:
         Past and Future

    Jan Pedersen
    Chief Scientist, Yahoo! Search
    11 April 2005
1
Outline

    • Compare and contrast
      – 2005 vs 1998
    • Some underlying trends
    • What’s New




2
Search Landscape 2005

                                  • Three major Players
                                     – Google ($52B)
                                     – Yahoo ($42B)
                                     – MSN ($271B)
                                  • $6+B in Paid Search
                                    Revenues
                                  • >400M searches daily
                                  • 5-8B claimed index size
                                  • Excellent relevance
    Source: Search Engine Watch




3
Search Landscape in1998




4
Infoseek circa 1998

                 • IPO in 1996
                    – Same year as
                      Excite and Yahoo!
                 • 5th ranked destination site
                 • Market cap of $1B
                 • Competed as a portal
                    – Content was king
                 • Ultimately sold to Disney
                    – Go network
                 • Decommissioned in 2001


5
Infoseek Search Technology

    • 1.5 Generation Search
      – Tuned for relevance
         • Proximity
         • Anchor text (ESP)
         • Inlink counting
      – Small but competant index
         • 60M pages
         • Alta Vista was 140M at that time
    • Still exists as Ultraseek server
      – Sold to Inktomi in 2000, later resold to Verity
6
Infoseek UI




7
Comparison to State-of-the-art




8
What was missing?

    • Business Model
      – Monetized via untargeted banner ads
      – Need for increased inventory
        • Portalitis
        • Clutter
    • Lack of focus
        • Search was deprioritized

9
Some Underlying Trends




                         10
Moore’s Law




11
Index Size

                  • ~150M in 1998
                  • ~5B in 2005
                       – 33x increase
                       – Moore would predict 25x
                  • Monthly refresh in 1998
                  • Daily refresh in 2005
                  • What about 2010?
                       – 40B?
                  • Where is the content?
                       – Public Web?
                       – Personal Web?
                  Source: Search Engine Watch and Search Engine Showdown
12
Meaning of Hit Counts

                 • Hits Counts are estimated
                      – Indices are tiered
                      – Estimates can be non-
                        linear




                 Source:

                    http://aixtal.blogspot.com/2005/01/web-googles-counts-faked.html




13
Meaning of Document Counts

                                      • Claimed index Size
                                         – Google: 3B
                                         – FAST: 3B
                                         – AV: 1B
                                      • Not all Documents are equal
                                         – Thin docs
                                      • Disparity between claimed
                                        and reported


     Source: Search Engine Showdown




14
Online Advertising

                 • Internet accounts for
                   30+% of viewing time
                     – Yet only 4% of spend
                     – $370B overall
                            • $10B online

                 • Fastest growing
                   advertising segment
                 • Steady shift toward
                   Online advertising

                  Source: The Economist
15
The Keyword Marketplace




     • The great, unsung, search problem
        – Matching relevant ads to user intent
     • Example of distributed authorship
        – Advertisers bid on keywords
        – Discounts for good performance (relevance)

16
What’s New?




              17
Verticals


                      Image Search




     Product Search




18
Local




19
Personal Search




20
Contextual Search




21
Desktop Search




22
23

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Internet Search Engines: Past, Present and Future Trends

  • 1. Internet Search Engines: Past and Future Jan Pedersen Chief Scientist, Yahoo! Search 11 April 2005 1
  • 2. Outline • Compare and contrast – 2005 vs 1998 • Some underlying trends • What’s New 2
  • 3. Search Landscape 2005 • Three major Players – Google ($52B) – Yahoo ($42B) – MSN ($271B) • $6+B in Paid Search Revenues • >400M searches daily • 5-8B claimed index size • Excellent relevance Source: Search Engine Watch 3
  • 5. Infoseek circa 1998 • IPO in 1996 – Same year as Excite and Yahoo! • 5th ranked destination site • Market cap of $1B • Competed as a portal – Content was king • Ultimately sold to Disney – Go network • Decommissioned in 2001 5
  • 6. Infoseek Search Technology • 1.5 Generation Search – Tuned for relevance • Proximity • Anchor text (ESP) • Inlink counting – Small but competant index • 60M pages • Alta Vista was 140M at that time • Still exists as Ultraseek server – Sold to Inktomi in 2000, later resold to Verity 6
  • 9. What was missing? • Business Model – Monetized via untargeted banner ads – Need for increased inventory • Portalitis • Clutter • Lack of focus • Search was deprioritized 9
  • 12. Index Size • ~150M in 1998 • ~5B in 2005 – 33x increase – Moore would predict 25x • Monthly refresh in 1998 • Daily refresh in 2005 • What about 2010? – 40B? • Where is the content? – Public Web? – Personal Web? Source: Search Engine Watch and Search Engine Showdown 12
  • 13. Meaning of Hit Counts • Hits Counts are estimated – Indices are tiered – Estimates can be non- linear Source: http://aixtal.blogspot.com/2005/01/web-googles-counts-faked.html 13
  • 14. Meaning of Document Counts • Claimed index Size – Google: 3B – FAST: 3B – AV: 1B • Not all Documents are equal – Thin docs • Disparity between claimed and reported Source: Search Engine Showdown 14
  • 15. Online Advertising • Internet accounts for 30+% of viewing time – Yet only 4% of spend – $370B overall • $10B online • Fastest growing advertising segment • Steady shift toward Online advertising Source: The Economist 15
  • 16. The Keyword Marketplace • The great, unsung, search problem – Matching relevant ads to user intent • Example of distributed authorship – Advertisers bid on keywords – Discounts for good performance (relevance) 16
  • 18. Verticals Image Search Product Search 18
  • 23. 23