1. Practical Approaches to Managing
International Development Projects in
the Face of Complexity
SESSION 1: UNDERSTANDING SOCIAL CHANGE
EMANUEL SOUVAIRAN
JANUARY 2014
THIS PRESENTATION WILL BE MADE AVAILABLE TO STUDENTS VIA SLIDESHARE

2. What is the point of an
international development project?
WHO IS THE PROJECT FOR?
WHAT DO WE WANT TO CHANGE?
WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT?

3. Ownership
“THERE ARE LOTS OF DIFFERENT CATEGORIES OF PEOPLE WHO COULD
OWN OR CARE ABOUT WHAT IS GOING ON, AND THEY DON'T ALWAYS
WANT THE SAME THINGS, OR THEY DO WANT THE SAME THINGS BUT
NOT FOR THE SAME REASON.”
MATHEW GREENALL, 2013

4. Is the New York Times Ethicist
a Better Economist than…
the Economist?
“GIVING CASH INCREASES SCHOOL ENROLMENT BY23%, BUT CASH CONDITIONAL ON SCHOOL
ENROLMENT RAISES IT BY 41%.”
THE ECONOMIST
QUESTION: DOES GIVING CASH TO THE POOR WORK WELL? WHICH IS PREFERABLE?
“SEVERAL DENTISTS IN OUR AREA OFFER TO PURCHASE CANDY DURING HALLOWEEN FROM THEIR
YOUNG PATIENTS FOR $1 PER POUND. PRESUMABLY THEY DO THIS TO REDUCE THE RISK TO THEIR
PATIENTS OF DEVELOPING CAVITIES. UNFORTUNATELY, THE DENTISTS THEN GIVE THE CANDY TO THE
LOCAL FOOD CUPBOARD. THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT MOST (IF NOT ALL) THE CLIENTS WHO USE THE
FOOD CUPBOARD CAN LITTLE AFFORD PROPER DENTAL CARE. I BELIEVE SUCH BEHAVIOUR IS
THOUGHTLESS, UNETHICAL AND UNPROFESSIONAL. I AM A RETIRED DENTIST.”
BILL BOWEN, ROCHESTER
QUESTION: SHOULD DENTISTS STOP THIS PRACTICE?

5. The Economist
• THE ECONOMIST ASKS “DOES GIVING CASH TO THE POOR WORK WELL?”
• WORK WELL FOR WHOM? UNLESS WE ARE WILLING TO PRE-SPECIFY THE PREFERENCES OF POOR PEOPLE AND
MAKE VERY CLEAR THAT THIS IS WHAT WE WANT THEM TO DO WITH THE CASH, THE QUESTION CANNOT BE
FALSIFIED.
• THE ECONOMIST NOTES THAT GIVING CASH INCREASES ENROLMENT BY 23%, BUT CASH CONDITIONAL
ON ENROLMENT RAISES IT BY 41% AND THEREFORE CONCLUDES THAT CONDITIONAL CASH IS BETTER
FOR RAISING THE HUMAN CAPITAL OF THE NEXT GENERATION.
• WHAT IF HOUSEHOLDS SPENT THE MONEY ON MEDICINE FOR A SICK PARENT WHO CAN NOW EARN MORE? OR
FOOD FOR THEIR CHILDREN SO THEY ATE BETTER? OR ON BED-NETS? OR A TOY SO THAT THEIR CHILDREN
COULD HAVE A LITTLE FUN? EACH OF THESE COULD HAVE RAISED THE HUMAN CAPITAL OF THE NEXT.
• THE ANSWER “DOES GIVING CASH WORK WELL” IS A WELL-DEFINED QUESTION ONLY IF YOU ARE WILLING TO SAY
THAT “WELL” IS SOMETHING THAT WE, THE DONORS, WANT TO DEFINE FOR FAMILIES WHOM WE HAVE NEVER
MET AND WHOSE LIVING CIRCUMSTANCES WE HAVE PROBABLY NEVER SPENT A DAY, LET ALONE A LIFETIME, IN.

6. The New York Times Ethicist
NEW YORK TIMES ETHICIST, CHUCK KLOSTERMAN:
“IT’S NOT DIFFICULT TO IMAGINE A SIMILAR SITUATION WHEREIN A CARDIOLOGIST OFFERS TO BUY TOBACCO FROM HIS AT-RISK TEENAGE
PATIENTS, ONLY TO DONATE THE CIGARETTES TO A HOMELESS SHELTER. BUT EVEN THAT DOESN’T STRIKE ME AS SINISTER. ADULTS HAVE
THE RIGHT TO DECIDE WHAT THEY PUT INTO THEIR BODIES, EVEN IF IT’S NOT TO THEIR ADVANTAGE. A DEGREE OF SHARED KNOWLEDGE
ABOUT THE CONSEQUENCES MUST BE EXPECTED. IF SOMEONE SHOPPING AT THE FOOD CUPBOARD SEES FREE TWIX BARS, HE NEEDS TO
REALIZE THAT COOKIES COATED IN CHOCOLATE AND CARAMEL ARE NOT GOING TO MAKE HIS (OR HIS CHILDREN’S) TEETH STRONGER.
THAT’S NOT A REMOTELY UNREASONABLE EXPECTATION, REGARDLESS OF SOCIAL CLASS. IT WOULD BE DIFFERENT IF THIS WAS THE ONLY
FOOD AVAILABLE, OR IF HE AND HIS FAMILY WERE FORCED TO EAT IT — BUT THAT’S NOT WHAT’S HAPPENING HERE. WHAT’S HAPPENING IS
THAT CANDY IS BEING MADE AVAILABLE TO PEOPLE WHO MIGHT NOT HAVE IT OTHERWISE. MEDICALLY, YOU WOULD ARGUE THAT
THIS IS NEGATIVE. BUT THAT’S NOT THE ONLY FACTOR TO CONSIDER.
IF SOMEONE IS FREQUENTING A FOOD CUPBOARD, IT CAN BE ASSUMED HE’S NOT IN A POSITION TO SPEND A LOT OF MONEY ON SMALL
LUXURIES; FREE CANDY ISN’T GOING TO CHANGE ANYONE’S LIFE, BUT IT MIGHT MAKE IT BETTER FOR 10 MINUTES. OBVIOUSLY, THIS
PRACTICE (VERY SLIGHTLY) RAISES THE LIKELIHOOD OF PEOPLE GETTING CAVITIES AND GAINING WEIGHT AND FINDING THEMSELVES AT
RISK OF DIABETES. SOME WOULD INSIST THAT SOCIETY HAS AN ETHICAL RESPONSIBILITY TO STOP PEOPLE FROM HARMING THEMSELVES
IN ANY WAY (AND TO ANY DEGREE). I AM NOT ONE OF THOSE PEOPLE. I THINK IT’S O.K. FOR THE DENTISTS TO DONATE THIS CANDY. THEY
SHOULD, HOWEVER, ALSO DONATE TOOTHBRUSHES AND FLOSS. BUT THEY SHOULD BE DOING THAT ANYWAY.”
•

7. RATHER THAN IMPOSING OUR PREFERENCES, IT IS MORE
USEFUL TO UNDERSTAND THE CONSTRAINTS AND PROBLEMS
THAT THE POOR FACE IN THEIR EVERYDAY LIVES, AND TRY AS
HARD AS WE CAN TO SOLVE THEM.

8. Ownership:
From control to coorperate
“IT IS DIFFICULT TO JUDGE HOW MUCH OVER THE PAST DECADE THE
BEHAVIOUR AND ATTITUDES OF DEVELOPMENT PROFESSIONALS HAVE
SHIFTED FROM COMMAND, CONTROL AND TEACH TOWARDS EMPOWER,
ENABLE AND CO-LEARN; THE SIX POWER AND RELATIONSHIP WORDS, FOR
EXAMPLE - PARTNERSHIP, EMPOWERMENT, OWNERSHIP, PARTICIPATION,
ACCOUNTABILITY AND TRANSPARENCY (GROVES AND HINTON, 2004) - HAVE
BEEN MEMES, SPREADING AND WORKING AWAY IN DEVELOPMENT IN
PRACTICE.“
ROBERT CHAMBERS, FROM IDEAS FOR DEVELOPMENT, 2005

9. Ownership: A cautionary tale
PROJECT:LAKE TURKANA FISH
PROCESSING PLANT, KENYA
DONOR: NORWEGIAN GOVERNMENT
COST: $22 MILLION
WHERE IT WENT WRONG: THE PROJECT WAS DESIGNED IN 1971 TO PROVIDE JOBS TO THE TURKANA
PEOPLE THROUGH FISHING AND FISH PROCESSING FOR EXPORT. HOWEVER, THE TURKANA ARE NOMADS
WITH NO HISTORY OF FISHING OR EATING FISH. THE PLANT WAS COMPLETED AND OPERATED FOR A FEW
DAYS, BUT WAS QUICKLY SHUT DOWN. THE COST TO OPERATE THE FREEZERS AND THE DEMAND FOR CLEAN
WATER IN THE DESERT WERE TOO HIGH. IT REMAINS A "WHITE ELEPHANT" IN KENYA'S ARID NORTHWEST.

10. Ownership: A cautionary tale
“IN THE 1990S, ZAMBIA IMPLEMENTED A EUROPEAN UNION AND WORLD BANK FUNDED SOCIAL FUND.
COMMUNITIES, UPON MEETING REQUIREMENTS (ONE OF WHICH WAS TO CONTRIBUTE 25 PERCENT OF
THE COST IN KIND), WERE GIVEN FUNDS TO IMPLEMENT THEIR SELF-SELECTED SOCIAL PROJECTS.
ONE COMMUNITY ELECTED TO USE THE FUNDS TO REPAIR A WATER FACILITY. IN JUSTIFYING THEIR
APPLICATION, THE COMMUNITY HAD ARGUED THAT FIXING THE WATER FACILITY WOULD PROTECT
FAMILIES FROM DRAWING DIRTY WATER FROM A CROCODILE INFESTED RIVER.
WHEN THE TIME CAME TO MAKE CONTRIBUTIONS, THE COMMUNITY’S COMMITTEE WAS UNABLE TO
SECURE THE SUPPORT THAT WAS REQUIRED. HOWEVER, WHEN A WITCH/WIZARD FINDER SHOWED UP
AND CLAIMED THAT HE COULD PURGE THE COMMUNITY OF ITS WITCHES AND WIZARDS MEMBERS
CONTRIBUTED MONEY NOT ONCE, BUT TWICE. THE MORAL OF THE STORY IS THAT WHAT COMMUNITIES
TRULY NEED IS NOT ALWAYS SELF APPARENT.”
CORNELIUS CHIPOMA, 2014

11. Ownership
THE PROCESS MATTERS
•THE COMMUNITY IS FAR BETTER POSITIONED TO ASSESS ITS OWN NEEDS, STRENGTHS, RESOURCES,
AND INTENTIONS THAN ANY OUTSIDER.
•UNLESS THE COMMUNITY BOTH PRIORITIZES THE PROBLEM AND HAS OWNERSHIP AND A STAKE IN
ITS SOLUTION, THE MEMBERS’ INCENTIVES WILL NOT BE ALIGNED WITH YOUR LOGIC MODEL.
•AN OUTSIDER CAN TOTALLY MISS THE FACT THAT THE COMMUNITY HAS A UNIQUE SET OF
CULTURAL LENSES, ECONOMIC INCENTIVES, AND SOCIAL STRUCTURES THAT MAY RUN
ORTHOGONAL TO ONE’S NEAT LOGIC MODEL.
•WHEN A COMMUNITY WALKS THROUGH THIS PROCESS OF IDENTIFYING OBJECTIVES, CREATING A
PLAN AND MANAGING THE ACTIVITIES, ITS MEMBERS ARE BUILDING CAPACITY THAT CAN BE
APPLIED TO OTHER DEVELOPMENT ISSUES AS WELL.
•IT IS EASY TO ACCOMPLISH PARTICIPATION, BUT TRUE OWNERSHIP REMAINS ELUSIVE

12. Defining how social change
happens within the context of
international development
KEY QUESTIONS TO ASK
• WHO OR WHAT WAS INVOLVED IN THE CHANGE? (E.G. INDIVIDUAL ACTORS OR
STATE INSTITUTIONS)
• WHAT STRATEGIES WERE USED TO BRING ABOUT THE CHANGE? (E.G.
REFORMISM, MASS MOBILISATION)
• WHAT WERE THE CONTEXTS THAT AFFECTED HOW THE CHANGE HAPPENED?
(E.G. URBANISATION, POWER RELATIONSHIPS)
• WHAT WAS THE PROCESS OR PATHWAY OF CHANGE? (E.G. DEMONSTRATION
EFFECTS, CUMULATIVE PROGRESS)

13. Six Theories
about Policy
Change
These include global
theories developed by
political scientists to
explain how various
kinds of advocacy
strategies and
conditions relate to
policy change, and
theories about common
advocacy strategies or
tactics that are likely
part of broader
advocacy efforts or
campaigns.

14. Social analysis for projects
HOW WOULD A POLITICAL SCIENTIST OR AN ANTHROPOLOGIST OR A SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGIST EXPLAIN THE
SUCCESS OF A HEALTH PROJECT YOU WORKED ON IN VIET NAM? HOW IMPORTANT WERE GOVERNMENT
DECISIONS COMPARED TO THE EMOTIONAL LANDSCAPE OF INDIVIDUALS?
SHOULD YOU SEARCH FOR THE EXPLANATIONS OF SUCCESS OVER THE PAST TWO YEARS OR BE A HISTORIAN AND
EXAMINE THE PAST TWO HUNDRED YEARS? WHAT WOULD JARED DIAMOND OR MALCOLM GLADWELL OR
VANDANA SHIVA SAY ABOUT THE ISSUE?
WHAT WOULD A SHANTY-TOWN DWELLER YOU ONCE MET IN RIO SAY ABOUT IT? HOW DOES THIS COMPARE WITH
YOUR OWN VIEWS?
WHEN MAHATMA GANDHI WAS ASKED IF HE WAS A HINDU HE REPLIED, ‘YES I AM, I AM ALSO A MUSLIM, A
CHRISTIAN, A BUDDHIST, AND A JEW.’ WHEN YOU ARE ASKED, FOR INSTANCE, IF YOU ARE A DEVELOPMENT
ANALYST, YOU COULD ANSWER, ‘YES I AM, BUT I ALSO STRIVE TO BE A HISTORIAN, AN ANTHROPOLOGIST, A
SOCIOLOGIST, A POLITICAL SCIENTIST…’
ROMAN KRZNARIC, HOW CHANGE HAPPENS, 2007

15. What is a Theory of Change?
“A THEORY OF HOW AND WHY AN INITIATIVE WORKS.”
WEISS, 1995
“A WAY TO DESCRIBE THE SET OF ASSUMPTIONS THAT
EXPLAIN BOTH THE MINI-STEPS THAT LEAD TO A LONG TERM
GOAL AND THE CONNECTIONS BETWEEN THESE ACTIVITIES
AND THE OUTCOMES OF AN INTERVENTION OR PROGRAMME.”
REISMAN, 2007

16. Origins of
Theory of
Change
Theory of change is an
on-going process of
reflection to explore
change and how it
happens – and what
that means for the part
we play in a particular
context, sector and/or
group of people.
A theory of change is
two things:
1. The product or plan,
and
2. The process that
created this….

17. Why develop a Theory of
Change
1.
IT ENCOURAGES DEEP OBSERVATION OF THE SYSTEM – HOW POWER IS DISTRIBUTED; HOW DECISIONS
ARE MADE; WHAT ARE THE COALITIONS FOR AND AGAINST ANY GIVEN CHANGE; HOW IS CHANGE LIKELY
TO HAPPEN IN THIS SYSTEM. THE LONGER YOU CAN REFRAIN FROM THE JUMP TO ‘SO WHAT DO WE DO’,
THE MORE LIKELY YOU ARE TO COME UP WITH SOME GOOD IDEAS TO TEST.
2.
IT MAKES YOU THINK FAR MORE ABOUT CRITICAL JUNCTURES/WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY AS AN
ESSENTIAL COMPONENT OF ANY CHANGE PROCESS.
3.
IT HIGHLIGHTS THE IMPORTANCE OF WORKING WITH ‘NON-USUAL SUSPECTS’,
4.
IT HELPS YOU IDENTIFY AND OPEN UP THE ‘BLACK BOXES’ IN OUR
5.
IT SHIFTS THE EMPHASIS AWAY FROM A HUGE EXERCISE IN PRE-INTERVENTION PLANNING, FOLLOWED
BY A LONG AND UNREMITTING PROCESS OF IMPLEMENTATION. INSTEAD WE ARE INTO SOMETHING MORE
EXPERIMENTAL AND ITERATIVE CORRECTING COURSES AS THE PROJECT EVOLVES.
6.
LINKED TO THIS, A GOOD THEORY OF CHANGE SHOULD SHIFT THE CENTRE OF INTELLECTUAL
ENGAGEMENT FROM MONITORING TO LEARNING

18. The main
components
Identifying the ‘why,
what, who, when, and
how’ that link each
element to the larger
intervention may be a
useful way of more fully
understanding the
change process.

19. Grassroots
theory of
change
(Community
Organizing Theory)

20. Developing a Theory of Change
UNDERSTANDING DIFFERENT THEORIES OF CHANGE CAN
HELP ORGANIZATIONS MORE EFFECTIVELY CHOOSE
STRATEGIES AND AVOID THE “KITCHEN SINK” SYNDROME OF
DOING A LITTLE BIT OF EVERYTHING AND UNREALISTICALLY
EXPECTING CHANGE IN ALL AREAS.

21. Understanding complexity and
systems thinking
A GOOD THEORY OF CHANGE PROCESS CAN HELP TO ANALYSE
A SYSTEM AND TO BEGIN TO UNDERSTAND COMPLEXITY

23. Systems thinking
WHAT IS SYSTEMS THINKING?
SYSTEMS THINKING UTILIZES HABITS, TOOLS AND CONCEPTS TO DEVELOP AN
UNDERSTANDING OF THE INTERDEPENDENT STRUCTURES OF DYNAMIC SYSTEMS.
WHEN INDIVIDUALS HAVE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF SYSTEMS, THEY ARE
BETTER ABLE TO THE IDENTIFY THE LEVERAGE POINTS THAT LEAD TO DESIRED
OUTCOMES.

24. A Research for Health System

25. Components of
a system
Elements
Typically the most obvious part
of a dynamic system
Changing elements often has
very little effect on a system
Interconnections
Often involve the flow of
information
Changing relationships ussually
changes system behaviour
Function
Typically the least obvious part
of a system
A change in purpose changes a
system profoundly

26. What is
systems
thinking?
“” We can use the phrase to
refer to a set of tools – such as
causal loop diagrams, stock and
flow diagrams and simulation
models – that help us map and
explore dynamic complexity.
We can also use it to mean a
unique perspective on reality –
a perspective that sharpens our
awareness of whole and of how
the parts within those wholes
interrelate. Finally, systems
thinking can refer to a special
vocabulary with which we
express our understanding of
dynamic complexity. For
example, systems thinkers often
describe the world in terms of
reinforcing and balancing
processes, limits, delays,
patterns of behavior over time,
and so forth.” – Barry
Richmond, isee systems, inc.

27. Systems
Thinking
Strategies
Visual Strategies
The visual tools of systems thinking
include the ladder of inference,
behavior-over-time graphs, stock/flow
diagrams, an iceberg visual, and causal
loop diagrams. Visual tools help
students and educators collect,
analyze, synthesize and communicate
their thoughts about systems.
Listening & Speaking Strategies
Development of a common vocabulary
and the use of different
communication techniques increase
understanding of how systems work by
increasing the ability to see a bigger
picture through multiple perspectives.
Kinesthetic Strategies
These strategies engage the body along
with the mind to study how and why a
system functions as it does.

29. Complexity
The linear logic model
 Identify the problem
 Commission research
 Analyse the results
 Choose the best option
 Establish the policy
 Implement the policy
 Evaluation
The reality in Vietnam –
what role for research?

30. A history of complexity science

31. Aid on the edge of Chaos
“THERE IS A PERVASIVE AND LONGSTANDING BIAS TOWARDS TREATING THE
WORLD AS A SIMPLE, PREDICTABLE PLACE IN WHICH AID CAN BE DELIVERED, AS
IF ON A CONVEYOR BELT, TO BRING ABOUT POSITIVE CHANGES,”
BEN RAMALIGHAM, AID ON THE EDGE OF CHAOS, 2013
• AID SHOULD BE EXAMINED USING “COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS”
• MOVING AID (AND OUR UNDERSTANDING OF AID) FROM A CONVEYOR BELT TO AN
'ORGANIC' PROCESS
• TRADITIONALLY AID HAS BEEN ROOTED IN AN MASS PRODUCTION MENTALITY
WITH AGENCIES PROMOTING SILVER BULLET SOLUTIONS FOR COMPLEX
PROBLEMS SUCH AS ERADICATING MALARIA, REDUCING VULNERABILITY TO
DROUGHT, AND SOCIAL VIOLENCE.

32. 10 concepts of complexity
science
INTERCONNECTED AND INTERDEPENDENT ELEMENTS AND
DIMENSIONS;
2.
FEEDBACK PROCESSES PROMOTE AND INHIBIT CHANGE WITHIN
SYSTEMS;
3.
SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS AND BEHAVIOURS EMERGE FROM SIMPLE
RULES OF INTERACTION;
4.
NONLINEARITY;
5.
SENSITIVITY TO INITIAL CONDITIONS;
6.
PHASE SPACE – THE ‘SPACE OF THE POSSIBLE’;
7.
ATTRACTORS, CHAOS AND THE ‘EDGE OF CHAOS’;
8.
ADAPTIVE AGENTS;
9.
SELF-ORGANISATION;
10. CO-EVOLUTION.
1.

33. From linearity to adaptation
WORK IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS REQUIRES MORE MONITORING,
MORE ADAPTATION. EVEN IF YOU GET IT RIGHT, IT WILL BE A
LOT MORE EXPENSIVE THAN STICKING TO WORKING IN
‘ISLANDS OF LINEARITY’

34. Recap: What is the point of an
international development project?
THE KEY QUESTIONS
WHO IS THE PROJECT FOR?
WHAT DO WE WANT TO CHANGE?
WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT?

35. Recap: key points
A PROJECT MANAGER SHOULD:
•ENSURE THERE IS OWNERSHIP OF THE PROJECT BY THOSE FOR
WHOM THE PROJECT SHOULD BENEFIT
•SEEK TO UNDERSTAND HOW SOCIAL CHANGE HAPPENS
•DEVELOP A THEORY OF CHANGE, TEST AND ADAPT
•SEEK TO UNDERSTAND THE NON-LINEARITY OF PROJECTS AND TRY
TO LOOK AT INTERVENTIONS THROUGH THE LENS OF COMPLEX
ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS