Making Marketing Strategies.

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Rehearsing The Future – Making
Better Strategic Decisions
EKLAVYA GUPTA
13BCE0133

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ABSTRACT
This paper describes how impact of product range, price level,
product positioning and technological change can help in formu-
lating optimal business strategy for automotive manufacturers. A
key aspect of identifying future trend of market is the key gradient
to formulate proper marketing strategy - Mr. Andrew Young
(2008).
Key words: Marketing Strategy, Market, Market Trends
Paper Type: Research Paper
INTRODUCTION
“In war, there is no second prize for runner-up”...Omar Bradley,
U. S. General
This paper examines how widely held market images affect atti-
tudes towards the products and services and ability to attract cus-
tomer for future growth. It assesses the role of articulation of mar-
keting strategy to fine tune business trends in promoting the prod-
uct image and attractiveness.
Before developing a strategy, organizations need to analyze and
understand their environment, both as it is now and as it will be.
The major focus of strategic decision-making is how best to en-
sure a fit between the organization and its environment. However
that fit is not static and the task is to look at likely changes in the
environment

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This means management have to look to the future. They have to
pose and answer the question: “What does the future hold for my
organization ?”
One way to examine the future is to undertake scenario planning.
Scenario planning is a strategic tool that provides managers with a
route map for the future. Using scenarios is rehearsing the future
says Peter Schwartz in his book “The Art of the Long View”. By
rehearsing these future scenarios an organization can adapt to
what is happening and anticipate what could happen.
So, in essence, scenario planning enhances the ability of organiza-
tions to discern what is happening in the business environment, to
assess what this means for them and then take action on the basis
of this new knowledge. This white paper will describe what sce-
nario planning involves and provide a case study to illustrate its
power.
GEARING UP FOR AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE
It is not easy for managers to think strategically about the future. It
is a challenging and demanding process to think about what might
be. The main trends may be apparent but there is a great deal of
uncertainty about the future. There is also the possibility of being
caught out by entirely unforeseen events.
Management often fall into the trap of expecting the future to be
like the past. They think that what has gone before will continue to
pertain in the future.
Management thinking may be subject to “group think” where eve-
ryone holds the same fixed view of what the future holds and has
the same assessment on where their organization is heading. As a
result alternative courses of action are not considered.

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Alternatively, members of the management team may have differ-
ent perspectives on what the future will hold but have not really
shared these with colleagues.
There is a requirement to think widely about the future environ-
ment. So when might it be appropriate for an organization to un-
dertake scenario planning?
 When there is a great deal of uncertainty in a market.
 If there is a history of costly and unpredicted surprises in the
past, e.g. competitor entry.
 In situations of significant change, for example coming out of
recession.
SCENARIO PLANNING AS A WAY OF PREPARING
FOR THE FUTURE
Scenario planning had its origins in military circles in the 1940s.
In the early 1960s the famous futurologist, Herman Khan, began
to use scenarios to describe the possible consequences of nuclear
war. Gerald Piel writing, in the “Scientific American” magazine,
labelled Khan’s work as “thinking the unthinkable”. Khan took
this as a compliment and argued that thinking the unthinkable was
the only way to keep one’s strategic vision from going stale.
Scenario planning was also used to great effect by Royal Dutch
Shell to anticipate and respond to dramatic changes that have oc-
curred in the oil industry.
Microsoft is another organization that currently makes great use of
scenario planning to ensure they fully capitalize on changes in the
future environment.

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Scenarios are tools for helping us to take a long view of a world of
great uncertainty. Since time immemorial human beings have told
stories about what is to come – they have tried to describe the fu-
ture.
They are called scenarios because they are like the screenplay of a
movie or “scenes” in the theatre- a series of differing views on the
same general topic. Scenarios are stories about the way the world
might turn out tomorrow.
These storylines provide a number of alternative plausible, logical
and compelling views of the future – they are not forecasts as
such, but “pictures” of possible futures. Stories that can help man-
agement recognize and adapt to the changing aspects of today’s
environment.
The storylines enable management to define and assess a range of
existing and alternative policies, strategies and actions.
The major use of scenarios is in understanding rather than trying
to predict the future. It is about trying to create an array of plausi-
ble futures. Scenarios do not necessarily provide an accurate pic-
ture of tomorrow but enable an organization to make better deci-
sions about the future.
Scenarios are about making decisions today with an understanding
of how they might turn out. The intention is that the decisions tak-
en will prove to be robust under a variety of alternative futures.
They should also prompt an informed dialogue and debate about
strategic matters within an organization.
Scenario planning offers a way of putting a lot of ideas and possi-
bilities together. Scenarios start by recognizing the importance of
driving forces that shape the world. These can be Political, Eco-
nomic, Social and Technological (see Figure 1, below):

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Figure 1: Using PEST Analysis To Understand The Business En-
vironment
Management may, and probably should, be able to identify what
these elements are but the key question is how these forces com-
bine and interact. Each driving force may well suggest more ques-
tions than answers. The possible answers don’t point to one future
but to many, each with its own attributes and implications.
In looking ahead it is advisable to look beyond current horizons by
taking a view, say, five to ten years into the future.
Once the factors have been identified the requirement is to ascer-
tain the key uncertainties and their possible outcomes. These are
combined to develop plausible scenarios and the storyline is
fleshed out with detail, relating to events, geographies, and people.
It is also a good idea to provide warning signs or indicators for
each scenario.
The ideal number of scenarios to actually produce is four. With
two it becomes an either or situation. With three the temptation is
to opt for the middle one.
The outputs from scenario planning are:

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A set of agreed critical success factors.
A clear understanding of the drivers for change and key uncer-
tainties within the market.
A set of plausible storylines for the development of the market
over time.
A set of robust strategic options to enable a business to achieve
its growth plans.
Debbie Robinson, Director of Food Retail Marketing at the Co-
operative Group is a committed believer in scenario planning and
has used the technique to assist the Co-operative’s strategic direc-
tion:
As suggested by John Miltenburg , (2005, p.303-305), the produc-
tion systems are based on the products life cycle. The Figure-2 be-
low elucidates different types of production systems from the con-
cept creation stage to the end of product life cycle.
Product and volumes are linked with the sales forecast. The risk
involved at the developmental stage is low because the invest-
ments are carefully spent on the production system for small and
large batches considering the product life cycle.
As the product life saturates, a variety of products will be nar-
rowed down as per the manufacturing system designed for Con-
tinuous flow.

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The purpose of “Trend of Production System” is used in the discus-
sion for the initial stage of new product development [NPD] and
for ramp up and formulation of production plan for two, three,
four and five years.
CONCLUSION
International marketing will increase the portfolio for expansion
of business. Future trends on marketing strategy influenced by the
total range of the product, pricing level, production facility, tech-
nological change and competitor behavior. Finally, strategy will
be customized based on the customer situation of that particular
business scenario. Need of a good marketing strategy for the suc-
cess of a product is based on uninterrupted review & augmenta-
tion of business & marketing strategies. Moreover, the identifica-
tion of best customers, capability to overcome on strong competi-
tors, potential of elimination of commoditization, importance of

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product range are important parameters to drive towards a vision
of organization .
FURTHER WORKS
The impact of incremental, substantial and break through, innova-
tions ought to be interesting since these can create greater impact
on firms and industries. The present system in this research can
hopefully support the future research results that can transfer to
practicable implementation in all three areas of innovation
REFERENCES
Mr. Andrew Young, (2008), Strategic Marketing, WMG Module,
Presented, 25-29 November 30, 2008 at Mumbai India.
Heinz Weihrich, (2006), Professor of Management, University of
San Francisco Volkswagen.
Jose M. Labeaga, June 2005. Persistence and ability in the innova-
tion decision, Documento De Trabajo 2005-16.
Jobber, D (1998) Principles and Practice of Marketing, London:
McGraw-Hill. StylusInc Pvt. Ltd. All rights reserved, Copyright ©
2005, http://www.stylusinc.com/Common/AboutUs/Services.php;
Robert G. Cooper, 2001. Winning at New Products, 3rd edn, New
York: Perseus Book group. John Miltenburg, 2005.Manufacturing
Strategy, 2nd .ed. New York: Productivity Press,
Gerald B.