Availibility assessment and analysis

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Availability Assessment and Analysis
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Understand standard calculations of national availability.
Be aware of existing methods for estimating crop
production.
Identify methods for calculating household level food
stocks.
Be aware of key aspects to consider in planning
availability assessments.
Assessing Availability

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INTRODUCTION
It is the amount of food that is physically present in
a country or area through all forms of domestic
production, stocks, commercial imports and food aid.
What is food availability?
There are various methods and tools to assess food availability...

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FOOD BALANCE SHEET
It describes all the factors
which constitute the total
availability of food in a
country over a selected
twelve month period.
The Food Balance Sheet is a key tool used to look at
food availability at a national level.

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FOOD BALANCE SHEET
The Food Balance Sheet incorporates estimates of
“losses” into the supply estimate to get availability
of food for human consumption.
Not all the available food in a country is
available for human consumption.

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FOOD BALANCE SHEET
The food available for human
consumption is compared to the
food needed for that consumption
(consumption requirements)
over the selected period.
FOOD
NEEDED
FOOD
AVAILABLE
The Food Gap is the difference between the estimated
food available for human consumption and the
consumption requirements.
The estimate of a gap is an average across the
population.

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FOOD BALANCE SHEET
Most Food Balance Sheets
(FBS) are estimated for a 12
month time.
The FBS usually looks into the
future and can be updated as
further information is available.
FBS sections:
Supply
• Production
• Changes in stocks
Uses
• Human consumption needs
• Losses and seeds
• Animal feeds and processing
Expected Imports
• Expected Commercial
• Food aid received/pledged
Uncovered Food Gap
FOOD BALANCE SHEET

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FOOD BALANCE SHEET
Very few places have the all data
needed to estimate a comprehensive
FBS including all food commodities, so
you may need to focus on just the key
staple foods in the country.
On the other hand, accounting for as many staples as
possible is important, because just looking at one
commodity alone will give a false view of food gaps.

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FOOD BALANCE SHEET
A country may produce all of a given
commodity that it needs; in that case,
it is said to be “self-reliant”.
However, with external trade as a
possibility, there are many other
sources of supply.
A policy of self-reliance can be costly for a country if it
means producing at any cost to meet the needs.

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A Food Balance Sheet (FBS) can be very useful, but it also
has some limitations:
FBS CAN HELP FBS CANNOT HELP
- Governments in understanding
the food situation.
- Governments which may use
its results to set international
trade policies.
- Food aid agencies in assessing
the feasibility of local purchases
of supplies for distribution within
the country or elsewhere in the
region.
- The interpretation of overall
price movements.
If prices change, the FBS cannot
incorporate:
• all the actions that consumers
take.
• the changes in import/export.
Since the FBS is usually based on
a 12 month period, it cannot take
account of:
• seasonality; and
• local differences.
HOW THE FOOD BALANCE SHEET IS USED

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CROP PRODUCTION ESTIMATION PROCEDURES
TOTAL PRODUCTION =
AVERAGE YIELD * TOTAL PLANTED AREA
Estimating crop and livestock production
may contribute to understanding food availability.
This relationship can be used to estimate the
production of a given crop.
Yield is the total amount produced divided by the land
area, a measure of land productivity.

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There are different methods to estimate yields:
Extension Agents
Crop Cutting
Regression Analysis

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An advanced method consist in
mapping with Geographic
Information Systems (GIS)
and Remote Sensing with
satellite imagery from
METEOSTAT and other satellites.
• NOAA
Agencies focused on these technological advances:
• NASA • FAO/GIEWS

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FAO often conduct Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions
(CFSAM), for which the main responsibility is to derive
estimates of production for use in the Food Balance Sheet.
Steps of carrying out a CFSAM:
Identify information and methods
already available in the country.
Determine the key agricultural
zones within the country.
Assess production in each zone.

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HOUSEHOLD STOCKS ESTIMATION
Availability can also be assessed at
household level, estimating what
each household has in stock of
the main foods.
The assessment can be done at
sub-country level.
Since seasonal shifts can be very important, baseline
information of a “normal year” is necessary for
interpreting current levels of stocks.

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HOUSEHOLD STOCKS ESTIMATION
The methods for assessing household stocks are:
Household surveys
Production minus estimated
consumption can be used to
estimate projected stocks.
Rapid appraisals
Teams are sent out to talk with
community leaders, groups of
farmers and local experts.
The combination of the two methods may provide the best information.

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AVAILABILITY AND MARKETS
The existence of food doesn’t
imply a good distribution of
food through space and time.
Most often the supplies
needed are obtained through
the market or through
relatives who buy supplies
elsewhere.

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KEY ASPECTS IN PLANNING AN AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT
Useful considerations when planning an availability assessment:
RESOURCES AVAILABLE
SKILLS NEEDED
TIME
ACCURACY

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TIME In situation of emergency, people
may need food as soon as possible.
With a lengthy survey people will
have to wait before the decision is
made to send in food aid.
Using previous estimates and
information will assist you in
narrowing down the considerations
in an assessment.
In developing an information system a longer term perspective
may be critical to your ability to respond quickly.

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ACCURACY • Determining the level of precision
is a balancing act.
• A key feature is honesty in
reporting.
• A first step is thoroughly
documenting your assumptions
and the basis for your estimates.
• Often analysts use previous
estimates as a basis for projecting
values for the coming year.

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SKILLS NEEDED
• Selecting appropriate methods
also includes assessing the skills
of your statistical unit or agency.
• The various methods using data
collection and estimations require
many skills.
You need people who can get the information and interpret
what they obtain.

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RESOURCES AVAILABLE
• time;
• transport for the staff to get to the field;
• financial resources to pay travel and other cash expenses;
• computers and staff to conduct analysis;
• computer software for the analysis.
It is important to assess your resources, such as:
Identify regional resources that may be available and
can complement local resources.
Use the Web.

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• Food availability is the amount of food that is physically present in a country
or area through all forms of domestic production, stocks, commercial imports
and food aid.
• The Food Balance Sheet describes all the factors which constitute the total
availability of food in a country and allows us to differentiate between the
estimated and the available food (Food Gap).
• Estimating crop and livestock production may contribute to understanding
food availability. This usually implies calculating average yields.
• There are different methods to estimate yields.
• Household level availability is important especially for agricultural
households and can be assessed through periodic large household surveys
and rapid appraisals.
• In planning an availability assessment, you should consider some key
aspects related to time, level of accuracy, skills needed and resources
available.
SUMMARY

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LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Identify the most used availability indicators, at both
national and household level.
Identify the criteria for selecting the appropriate
availability indicators.
Availability Indicators

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INTRODUCTION
Availability indicators identify what aspects to analyse
when you assess food availability in a country.
What are availability indicators?

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INFORMATION TO UNDERSTAND AVAILABILITY
• Availability of basic foods, and their
nutritional components.
Key aspects for understanding availability:
• Location of households, their
livelihood and agro-ecological zones.
•Seasonality in supplies and consumption and
key factors affecting local production of food.
• Factors affecting other sources of supply.

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KEY COMMODITIES FOR CONSUMPTION
The first place to start is
making a list of the key
staples.
Another key thing to
understand is “substitution
of food”.
Which foods are really important to basic consumption?

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NUTRITIONAL COMPONENTS OF BASIC STAPLES
Since diets may change during
the year, kilocalorie availability
may change as well.
Looking at the nutritional content of the food staples helps
link food availability to utilization in human consumption.
A common estimate is availability of
kilocalories, based on the staple
foods available.

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SEASONALITY IN SUPPLIES AND CONSUMPTION
What and how much people eat will vary, based on price
changes, season and geographic area?
There is an “hungry season”
between harvests, when household
stocks have been eaten or sold,
and the new crop isn’t yet ready.
Create a cropping calendar to see
these periods.

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VULNERABILITY OF HOUSEHOLDS
If households depend on a
single source of supply
and that source is no
longer available, they may
be vulnerable, and you
need to highlight that key
availability problem.
The vulnerability to a specific supply or availability problem.

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FACTORS AFFECTING LOCAL SUPPLY
Think of what is produced and what might negatively
affect production (pests, diseases, lack of rainfall...)
Positive factors could be farmers access
to improved inputs, or farmers deciding to
cultivate more land for food crops.
Government reserves may be used at any given point
in time and must be considered as part of availability.

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FACTORS AFFECTING OTHER SOURCES OF SUPPLY
Trade, food aid and policy aspects are other components
of availability
Availability may be reduced if your government
closes the border to imports or if a neighbour
changes import and export requirements.
Local and sub-regional analysis is needed to
add to the national and household availability
analysis.
It is hard to find an indicator for the policy side, but it should
not be left out of the picture on food availability.

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Some potential indicators which might be used to collect
information on the key aspects of food availability are:
NATIONAL AVAILABILITY INDICATORS
AVAILABILITY INDICATORS FOR DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
MARKET AVAILABILITY INDICATORS
POTENTIAL HOUSEHOLD LEVEL AVAILABILITY INDICATORS
POTENTIAL AVAILABILITY INDICATORS

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If you develop a Food Balance Sheet, you will have the
following national availability indicators:
Estimated imports through usual
commercial channels and
announced imports through public
channels (food aid commitments)
Total Gap: difference between
total production and total
consumption needs, which is the
estimated amount needed from
imports (commercial or food aid)
Total production of
food staples (in
metric tonnes or in
kilocalories)
Uncovered Gap: amount that
remains unmet given using
information on imports during a
typical year or the previous year

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The estimated food gap can give a false picture of high
imports needed if supply estimated from production or from
trade are inaccurate.
The Food Balance Sheet is not useful for understanding who
is food insecure.
Strengths
Weaknesses
They are useful at a national level for overall planning and
relatively easy to get estimates.

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AVAILABILITY INDICATORS FOR DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
To predict production, you can use a combination of
indicators for area planted and potential yield.
Current season’s rainfall pattern
compared to 5 year average (graph by
month, week, or 10-day period)
Use of improved inputs
Damage caused by pests and diseases
Yield estimates Total area planted

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Markets may provide part of the puzzle on availability.
Road and transport access, road
closures, security problems limiting
transport
Percentage of all weather roads
Stocks held by private
and public sector
Prices and price shifts
for main staples

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Prices as indicators must be
systematically collected at
identified market levels (wholesale,
retail). They are very rough, as they
combine both supply and demand.
Prices need to be carefully
interpreted.
Data on price of stocks being held by
the private sector may be more
difficult to access, as business people
tend to guard information.
Strengths Weaknesses
Prices as indicators may be
regularly collected and easily
available, at least for the
main markets.
Data on stock being held by
the government should be
available to you without a high
cost.

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POTENTIAL HOUSEHOLD LEVEL
AVAILABILITY INDICATORS
Household availability may be based strictly on current
stocks of food.
Months of food availability
from own production and
stocks of food staples
Annual
Total kilocalories
produced of basic
staples compared
to total kilocalorie
needs of
household over
the yearSeasonal

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POTENTIAL HOUSEHOLD LEVEL
AVAILABILITY INDICATORS
• May require survey
research, not quick to collect
and requiring resources.
• Must be put into a context
over time to see changes.
• Must be combined with
access indicators to
understand food insecurity at
the household level.
Strengths Weaknesses
Critical to:
• understand availability
within different
regions of your country;
and
• identify households
with severe threats to
food security.

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SELECTING AVAILABILITY INDICATORS
How to select the best mix of indicators
to understand a specific situation?
A good availability indicator should...
• Be relevant for decision making
• Reflect the reality
• Use resources efficiently
• Reflect seasonal and geographic differences

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SELECTING AVAILABILITY INDICATORS
Two other valuable qualities of indicators are:
By estimating indicators that are used
by other countries, you can better
understand your own situation and how
availability over a set of countries may
be affected in a crisis.
Indicators are useful for other
purposes. For example, the Food
Balance Sheet is often a multi-agency
effort, with Ministries, agencies and
donors working together.

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The national indicators are good for understanding the overall situation and
possibility for large-scale disruptions due to a production shortfall.
Completing the basic supply and demanding part of an FBS on a sub-national level
and seasonal basis, give greater detail in the picture of availability and what might
affect it.
Production estimates may be simple trend predictions with modifications for shifts in
yield and area. More elaborate models may be used to forecast production, but that
will require more advanced skills and resources.
At the market level, most of the work will be in the access side of things, but simple
price graphing over time can help to identify availability constraints.
At the household level, knowing how long stocks will last and when the next harvest
will come can be critical indicators of possible food insecurity. If many of your farmers
rely heavily on their own production, you will find production shortfalls good predictors
of stress. Reporting on levels of household stocks and their differences with a typical
year will give policy makers a measure of the availability from own production.
SUMMARY

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Courtesy: These lessons are prepared by
UN FAO and hosted in their website. It is
reproduced for the benefit of our readers
for educational purpose only. Hence any
reproduction of these online lessons for
commercial purpose is prohibited.
Web link: http://www.foodsec.org

Availibility assessment and analysis

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