Disruptive Analysis - OMA Messaging Workshop July 2012

Fragmentation, intent & “The Death of Ubiquity”:
why Telco-OTT strategies are inevitable

OMA Mobile Messaging Workshop
Brooklyn NY, 12th July 2012

dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean

About Disruptive Analysis

 London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm
 Advisor to MNOs, vendors, regulators & investors
 Critic of mobile IMS since 2005 and RCS since 2008
 Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, Feb 2012
 Workshops on Future of Voice & #TelcoOTT
 With Martin Geddes Consulting (credited for various slides here)
 Next events in Orlando & London in October

Twitter @disruptivedean .
Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com

July 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012

Core thesis: Fragmentation is valuable

Convergence & Fragmentation &
standards innovation

… new standardised services are neither necessary, nor sufficient.
RCS is irrelevant at best, and actively damaging at worst.


Messaging: key fragmentation drivers

Different
User Needs
& contexts

New
Multiplying
Business
Ecosystems
Models

New
Delivery
Technologies

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and
July 2012 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2012

Scale &
Context scope Why do
people send
Intent Functional messages,
Different needs
anyway?
User Needs
& Contexts

New
Multiplying
Business
Ecosystems
Models

New
Delivery
Technologies


Intent: 3 basic motivations for communications


Information transfer

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin
July 2012 Geddes Consulting 2012

Narrative


Presence really means “feeling an essence”

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin
July 2012 Geddes Consulting 2012

SMS vs. Intent

Information Transfer Narrative Presence

“Running 10 mins late. In “You’ll never believe “Miss you… looking
taxi now” what happened last forward to Friday ;-)
night :-O” xxx”


Scale &
Context scope

Intent Functional
needs
Different
User Needs

New
Multiplying
Business
Ecosystems
Models

New
Delivery
Technologies


Context: Messaging moves to in-app/web model

… messaging APIs need to fit the app narrative

Service
e.g. SMS

Product
e.g. WhatsApp

Feature
e.g. Zynga IM

Function

Context: Device diversity = OTT inevitable
Probability of all of a user’s Internet / messaging devices being
on a single telco’s network
100%
90% Free 3rd party WiFi

80%
Shared data plans only a
70% partial response
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6
# connected devices owned


Scale & scope

Communities  Unmet needs at every layer
 Many combinations of
Relationships
information
transfer, narrative &
presence
Conversations
 Many ways to meet them
Interactions  No application can do it all

Rendezvous


Birthday party!

+

Lowest common denominator services used as a fallback when nothing better available


SMSC SMSC
Roaming

Customer
Database
Invoice

Alice Bob
Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2012

Transmission

Interoperability
SMSC Storage
SMSC Home
Mobility
Agent

Availability Delivery

Customer
Accountability
Database
Invoice
Usability Ubiquity Urgency
Relevance

Alice Governance Bob

Transmission
SMS
Governance Interoperability
BBM
Skype (mobile)
Storage Facebook (mobile)
Relevance

Delivery
Usability

Availability Mobility

Accountability Ubiquity
Urgency

Telco-style OTT-style
services Transmission services
Storage Delivery

Mobility Interoperability

Usability Ubiquity

Relevance Governance

Availability Urgency

Accountability


Telco-style Familiar OTT-style
services services
Convenient

Rentable

Preinstalled

Simple

Billed


Telco-style Functionality OTT-style
services Reach services

Tailored

Coolness

Exclusivity

Free/Freemium

Affinity


Telco-style Familiar Functionality OTT-style
services Transmission
Reach services
Convenient Storage Delivery

Mobility Interoperability
Tailored
Rentable Ubiquity
Usability
Coolness
Relevance Governance
Preinstalled Exclusivity
Availability Urgency

Simple Accountability Personalised

Affinity


Interoperability is good but just another function

Presence


You can’t please all the people, all the time…
Phone number Ubiquity

Other identity Exclusivity

Mobile primary Familiarity

Web primary Novelty

… at least, not with a single monolithic service or restrictive API

 Fragmentation is irreversible

 OTT solutions target specific use-cases optimally

 You can’t beat them through interoperable generic messaging

 So join them through OTT-style innovation….
 … or be happy with being lowest-common denominator for
the residual use cases

 Telco-OTT services or partnerships are inevitable


Telco-OTT is neither new, nor impossible


Different models for Telco-OTT

Telco OTT
service Internet

Normal “on
net” users
Off-net
Telco extension user
service
Telco Internet
Billing &
ID


Key success factors for Telco-OTT services

Organisation & governance Managing cannibalisation

Design Software mindset

Conclusions

 Messaging fragmentation is inevitable
 Consequence of myriad use-cases & human nature
 (Also because of technology, devices, ecosystems etc)
 There is a need for lowest-common denominator….
 …. but it small & likely low-priced
 So-called OTT messaging is irreversible
 New standards won’t fix anything
 MNOs need to innovate, partner, stick with SMS, or exit


www.disruptive-analysis.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean

AVAILABLE FOR WORKSHOPS, CONSULTING & SPEAKING

dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com

+44 (0) 7941 100016


Disruptive Analysis - OMA Messaging Workshop July 2012

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