1. The crisis of news journalism. Part 1: The business of news
2. Structure of this lecture:
• Part 1. Gloom, misery, pessimism
• Part 2. Positive signs, hope, optimism
3. The perfect storm – cyclical or structural?
Sharp fall in advertising:
– Property
– Jobs
– Classified
+ Falling circulation / readership
+ The internet
= Collapse in revenue
4. The newspaper industry is “America’s fastest-shrinking industry” 2007-11
http://blog.linkedin.com/2012/03/08/economic-report/
6. Losses in print outweigh the gains online by a ratio of roughly 10 to 1
http://stateofthemedia.org/2013/newspapers-stabilizing-but-still-threatened/
7. And by the way, total US daily newspaper circulation was 44m in 2012…
http://www.naa.org/Trends-and-Numbers/Circulation-Volume/Newspaper-Circulation
8. There are some signs that some circulation loss is cyclical
http://stateofthemedia.org/2013/newspapers-stabilizing-but-still-threatened/
9. But US circulation has only just stabilised, lagging behind economic growth
10. And it’s a similar picture in the UK…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7958553.stm
11. And it affects almost all sections of the newspaper market…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2009/dec/14/national-newspapers-sales-decade#
14. The average visitor spends only 3 and a half minutes per session
on US news websites
http://stateofthemedia.org/2012/newspapers-building-digital-revenues-proves-pain
15. Monthly traffic analysis for mid-size east coast newspaper web site
(paper has 90,000 readers)
Type of Number of Visitors as % of total Page
visitors % of total page views views
‘Fans’ 19,700 4.3% 55.8% 143.4
‘Regulars’ 13,900 3.1% 8.5%
30.9
‘Occasionals’ 78,300 17.3% 16.0% 10.3
‘Fly-bys’ 341,000 75.3% 19.7% 2.9
Total 452,900 100% 100%
• ‘fans’ visit at least twice a week
• ‘regulars’ - one or two visits a week
• ‘occasionals’ - two or three times a month
• ‘fly-bys” - about once a month
SOURCE: Columbia Journalism School, 2011
http://cjrarchive.org/img/posts/report/The_Story_So_Far.pdf
16. Caveat 1. The collapse of US newspaper market is far worse than anywhere else
http://www.oecd.org/internet/interneteconomy/45559596.pdf
17. Caveat 2. US newspapers have relied far more on advertising for their revenue
http://www.oecd.org/internet/interneteconomy/45559596.pdf
18. Caveat 3. Revenue is down, but still relatively high
http://www.oecd.org/internet/interneteconomy/45559596.pdf
19. There is still hope!
Circulation revenues for daily newspapers in the US increased
in 2012 for the first time in a decade, following the mass
adoption of digital pay models by publishers
20. Newspapers are reducing their reliance on advertising
New York Times Media Group revenue mix
2001 2011 2012
Advertising 62% 49% 39%
Circulation 29% 45% 55%
Others 9% 6% 6%
Source: NYT financial statements
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/oct/29/new-york-times-paywall
21. Newspapers have put their prices up!
http://stateofthemedia.org/2013/newspapers-stabilizing-but-still-threatened/new
22. Newspapers are experimenting with making money online
• New York Times paywall – 2011
• 250,000 digital-only subscribers, plus 75,000 more paying for the iPad and
e-reader versions
• Paid total had grown to 390,000 by the end of the year
• Grew to 566,000 by autumn 2012
• Around 150 small, mid-sized and metro dailies have also instituted
variations of the New York Times model, or offer premium paid sites
23. Average Circulation of the top U.S. daily newspapers
Newspaper Print Total Total Change
Digital Circulation on 2011
2012
WALL STREET JOURNAL
1,566,027 552,288 2,118,315 0.02%
USA TODAY
1,701,777 115,669 1,817,446 -0.64%
NEW YORK TIMES
779,731 807,026 1,586,757 73%
Audit Bureau of Circulations, March 2012
http://accessabc.wordpress.com/2012/05/01/the-top-u-s-newspapers-for-march-2012/
24. On top of this, 44% now own a smartphone
http://libraries.pewinternet.org/2012/01/23/tablet-and-e-book-reader-ownership-n
25. What are owners doing with their mobile media devices?
1. 85% Interpersonal communication
40% averaged one or more hours per day
2. 73% Entertainment
36% averaged one or more hours per day
3. 68% Web searching and surfing (non-news)
16% averaged one or more hours per day
4. 63% Keeping up with the news
17% averaged one or more hours per day
Source: Reynolds Journalism Institute, 2012
1,015 randomly selected participants completed the survey between Jan 17 and Mar 25, 2012
http://www.rjionline.org/sites/default/files/2012_rji_mobile_media_survey_slides_0.pdf
26. How do mobile devices compare with traditional media for consuming news?
53% Better than printed newspapers or news magazines
18% Worse than printed newspapers or news magazines
50% Better than television news programs
21% Worse than television news programs
62% Better than radio news programs
13% Worse than radio news programs
Attitudes toward the news media and journalists
Statement: Professional journalists play a vital role in our society.
73% Agree 16% Neutral 10% Disagree
Statement: I prefer news stories produced and selected by professional journalists.
63% Agree 25% Neutral 12% Disagree
40% said they currently subscribed to at least one newspaper or newsmagazine (??)
28. US presidential elections, November 2012
http://stateofthemedia.org/2013/digital-as-mobile-grows-rapidly-the-
pressures-on-news-intensify/digital-by-the-numbers/
31. But profit decline is from historically very high levels
http://stateofthemedia.org/2012/newspapers-building-digital-revenues-
proves-painfully-slow/newspapers-by-the-numbers/
33. Newspapers are becoming attractive investments
again – “private equity” buyers show an interest
Warren Buffet buys the Omaha World Herald for $200m
Doug Manchester buys The Union Tribune for $110m
Halifax Media buys the New York Times’ 19 regional papers for $143m
John Paton launches Digital First (but it goes bankrupt in September
2012)
34. Circulation of free newspapers in Europe is UP!
In 2011, 81 free dailies with 277 editions were published in Europe.
Total circulation of these titles was around 19 million
http://www.newspaperinnovation.com/
35. Daily circulation for Metro International, the Swedish-based publisher
of free daily newspapers in over 100 cities around the world (’000s)
http://www.newspaperinnovation.com/
36. Newspaper circulation in France
In some countries, free newspapers are making up for
the loss in paid circulation
http://www.newspaperinnovation.com/
37. Success stories:
• London Metro, launched 2010
1.4m copies daily (800,000 in London)
Big profits – advertising up 11% 2009-11
Website has trebled traffic in 3 years
38. • London Evening Standard
Went into profit in 2012, three years
after going free
It lost £30m in 2009
£16m in 2010
£7m in 2011
Circulation up from 600,000 in 2009 to
700,000 today
Yevgeny Lebedev, the Russian
billionaire who bought the Evening
Standard for £1
39. • The Times
Nov 2012: 130,000 people are paying to read it online – 2 years
after £2 per week paywall
• Daily Mail
It’s free online, and recently announced 100m digital readers
• The ‘i’
Sales up 44% on Oct 2011, but it only launched in 2010
40. • “Niche” – The Financial Times
Charging for access since 2001
126,000 subscribers in 2009
207,000 in 2010
300,000 in 2011
FT revenue:
sales/subs ads
2001 26 74
2011 55 45
41.
42. • SvD recently climbed into profit for the first time in its 127-year
history.
• Since 2001, while Sweden's newspaper market has declined by
17%, sales of SvD have gone up 12%. It sells 195,000 copies a day,
mostly on subscription
• The emphasis is on original, off-diary stories, which means
SvD's journalists are coming up with more agenda-setting
news lines of their own . . .
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/organgrinder/2011/may/0
9/newspaper-gaining-readers-through-planning
