13. VEROCY.COM
MANAGING VALUE OF CRITICAL
Iran Risks I
• Several sanctions will be in place for prolonged period
• Third party risk continues
• Continued conflict with Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps
(IRGC)
• Financial transactions continue to be hampered (US-listing or
operations)
• IRGC holds vast stakes oil/gas/energy/finance/telecoms and
infrastructure
• Slow economic opening of other sectors than energy-related
sectors
13
14. VEROCY.COM
MANAGING VALUE OF CRITICAL
• Iranian elections NOT showing full support ‘liberals”
• Position of Iranian political hardliners weakened BUT still ruling
• Ongoing interference Iran in Arab world (Syria-Iraq-Yemen-
Lebanon)
• Hardliners/IRGC is testing commitment of Western sanctions
relieve
• Western investments will threaten Iranian business elite
powers
• Possibility of being confronted by increased domestic demand
requirements oil/gas production, leading to lower domestic
price settings
Iran Risks II
14
16. VEROCY.COM
MANAGING VALUE OF CRITICAL
Iran: Risk For Other Operations GCC?
• Investors-Suppliers-Operators-Banks should be taking
into account in all their operations and possible
discussions with and within Iran that GCC-North Africa-
Turkish clients could be not amused!
• Ongoing strive between Sunni-Shi’a regions not to be
underestimated in your own commercial activities
• American politics will have an influence in 2016-2017 on
Iranian opportunities!
• Too high optimism about potential Iran at present, due to
oil-gas market issues
• Very strict in geopolitical alliances
• IPC contracts are still NOT applicable, as they could be
seen as interfering in Iran’s nationalistic oil policies
16
17. VEROCY.COM
MANAGING VALUE OF CRITICAL
Going to Iran: Integrated Risk Analysis
needed
• The opportunities in Iran are theoretically staggering. Full scope of
projects and openings will bring Iran to the centre of attention
• Political-economic and geopolitical environment however still to be
assessed continuously
• Investment analysis and commercial cooperation needs to be based
on in-depth analysis of power players and political-religious links
inside and between companies and organisations
• Full need of export and political risk insurance
• Watch out for growing amount of new agents/consultants focussing
on Iran
• Assessments/economic advise/geopolitical risks integral part of your
Iranian approach
• VEROCY has direct link to Iranian Governor Kuzhestan/NIOC
• Can be followed up from NL(HQ)-US (Risk)-Turkey (Energy)-Dubai
(Investment Iran)
17
18. VEROCY.COM
MANAGING VALUE OF CRITICAL
Background Speaker
• Dr. Cyril Widdershoven is currently SVP Research of US-based consultancy MEA-Risk.com and Dutch critical
risk (defense/security/energy MENA) consultancy VEROCY. He also is Fellow of IAGS US (www.IAGS.org) and
Senior Fellow of Turkish strategic thinktank HAZAR..
• Dr. Widdershoven is a long-time observer of the global energy market with focus on geopolitical risk, terrorism,
fundamentalism and military/defense related issues in the MENA region. Presently, he holds several advisory
positions with international think tanks in the Middle East and energy sectors in the Netherlands, the United
Kingdom, and the United States. In earlier career assignments, he held positions at Capgemini Consulting,
Deloitte Financial Advisory Services, and as Senior Financial Analyst Oil & Gas Sector FDA, where he managed
and advised the oil and gas department on equity and bond markets, with the main targets being Shell, BP, Total,
Eni, BG, Heerema, Fugro, DSM, Dow Chemicals, BASF, Statoil, Schlumberger, Halliburton, PSG, and Repsol.
• Dr. Widdershoven held several senior publishing positions in leading energy publications such as Afroil, Middle
East Oil and Gas, and North Africa Oil and Gas Magazine Cairo, and he continues to oversee the Mediterranean
Energy Political Risk Consultancy. Dr. Widdershoven worked on M&A operations in Egypt, Libya, Sudan, and
Iran, he studied the pipeline operations in Libya, Algeria, Nigeria and Turkey, and he assessed risk for
institutional investors and banks in Libya, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Iraq, all while advising international
organizations on related issues.
• Dr. Widdershoven has throughout his career lived and worked in numerous Middle East countries, with a home
base in Egypt, where he was Head of Investment and Research at ARTOC Group for Investment and
Development in Cairo. He has lived in GCC, Iran, Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkye.
18
